Mar 09

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 9th

FOOTBALL PRICES will follow tomorrow i’m afraid – run out of time!

15 HOURS OF (FORECAST) RAIN HAS JUST STARTED TIGHT ON CUE HERE IN BRISTOL – HEADING STRAIGHT FOR CHELTENHAM AFTER US ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR PICTURES – KALASHNIKOV and SAINT CALVADES LOOK SURE TO BENEFIT IN THE FIRST TWO RACES ON TUESDAY…

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL UPDATES ADDED AT NOON ON FRIDAY (Towards the foot of the column)……

 

Thursday’s school report:

My twitter page has all the news from yesterday which majored on an 80/1 WINNER via the in from trainer sector, notwithstanding a 12/1 MMA winner last night which was returned at 4/1 – feeling much better today thankfully, though that would have been enhanced had a short head defeat not denied us a 200/1 treble at Newcastle from just four runners offered last night.

While touching on the subject, let’s stop knocking the NHS shall we, at least those at the sharp end who have to face we ‘relics’ on a daily basis!

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES UPDATED + 8 ADDITIONS

 

AYR:

1.50: Booyakasha – 7/2 (Ladbrokes) – AVERAGE PRICE NOW OF 5/2

2.50: Strong Economy – 13/2 (365) – NOW 6/1

3.25: Charmant – 23/10 (Marathon) – NOW 2/1

4.30: Dick Darsie – 11/2 (Skybet/Hills) – NOW 4/1

5.05: Lochnell – 7/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 5/1

Additional Ayr entry at 9.00:

2.20: Chicirica – 5/1 (Ladbrokes & Betway)

 

LEICESTER:

2.40: Beggar’s Wishes – 8/1 (Hills/Unibet/888) – NOW 6/1

3.15: Bajardo – 10/3 (Betfair)- NOW 5/2

Additional Leicester entries at 9.00:

3.50: Lickpenny Larry – 11/1 (Marathon/Betfair/Sportinggbet)

4.20: Trafalgar Rock – 14/1 (PP/Coral/Unibet)

 

SANDOWN:

2.30: Kastani Beach – 8/1 (Hills) – NOW 11/2

4.45: Lex Talionis – 12/1 Betfair/PP/BetVictor) – NOW 8/1

Additional Sandown entries at 9.00:

3.05: Quids In – 7/1 (Hills)

3.40: Baden – 5/1 (Hills)

 

NEWCASTLE (A/W):

7.15: Optima Petamus – 12/1 (Hills/Marathion/Betfair) – NOW 8/1

8.15: Knockout Bow – 15/2 (PP) – NOW 15/2

8.45: Spirit Of Zebedee – 12/1 (365/Betfair/BetVictor) – NOW 17/2

Additional Newcastle entries at 9.00:

6.15: Mount Victoria – 33/1 (Sportingbet)

6.45: Inshaa – 25/1 (PP/BetVictor)

7.45: Foxy Lad – 5/1 (365/Unibet/BetVictor)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

13/41—Sue Smith (+13) – 2 at Ayr: Quietly (4.00) & Dick Darsie (4.30)

12/31—Paul Nicholls (+28) – 1 at Sandown: More Buck’s (3.40)

7/20—John Gosden (+14) – 1 at Newcastle: Natch (5.45)

5/9—Robert Cowell (+4) – 1 at Newcastle: Grandfather Tom (8.15)

4/11—Peter Bowen (+19) – 1 at Leicester: Beggar’s Wishes (2.40)

3/4—Andrew Hamilton (+6) – 1 at Ayr: Bobbie’s Diamond (2.50)

3/5—Jenny Candlish (+4) – 2 at Leicester: Granville Island (2.40) & Basford Ben (4.55)

3/6—Alistair Ralph (+10) – 1 today: Native Gamut (2.10 Leicester)

3/9—Zoe Davison (+24) – 3 at Leicester: Kilnakin (3.15) & Finnegan’s Garden & Gustav (3.50)

3/9—Richard Spencer (+5) – 1 at Newcastle: Heather Lark (5.45)

3/10—Warren Greatrex (+30) – 1 at Sandown: Brianstorm (2.00)

2/4—James Ewart – 4 chances: Charmant (3.25 Ayr) + 3 at Newcastle: Kindler (5.45), Da Capo Dandy (6.45) & Leahcar (7.45)

2/4—Neil Mulholland (+2) – 2 at Sandown: Sleep Easy 3.05) & Admiral Kid (4.45)

2/5—Seamus Mullins (+5) – 3 today: Kastani Beach (2.30 Sandown), Bonds Conquest (3.50 Leicester) & Fenions Court (4.45 Sandown)

2/5—Kevin Ryan (+5) – 2 at Newcastle: Scrutiny (6.45) & Foxy Lady (7.45)

26 runners in race order:

2.00: Brianstorm

2.10: Native Gamut

2.30: Kastani beach

2.40: Beggar’s Wishes & Granville Island

2.50: Bobbie’s Diamond

3.05: Sleep Easy

3.15: Kilnakin

3.25: Charmant

3.40: More Buck’s

3.50: Finnegan’s Garden, Bonds Conquest & Gustav

4.00: Quietly

4.30: Dick Darsie

4.45: Fennions Court & Admiral Kid

4.55: Basford Ben

5.45: Heather Lark, Kindler & Natch

6.45: Scrutiny & Da Capo Dandy

7.45: Foxy Lady & Leahcar

8.15: Grandfather Tom

 

Friday Stat Attack (Seven year study period unless stated)

AYR:

45 favourites – 16 winners – 8 placed – 21 unplaced

Average Placepot dividend: £1,797.57

Highest dividend: £9,887.70 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £86.90 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

7 winners—Lucinda Russell (20/1, 7/1, 3/1, 7/4*. 13/8*, 11/8 & Evs*) – 4 runners today: Chasseur Detete (1.50), Saint Freule (2.20), Mumigos Debut (2.50) & Moorstown (4.30)

6 winners—Nick Alexander (7/1, 3/1, 6/4*, 5/4*, 5/4* & 4/6*) – 4 runners today: The Orange Rogue (2.50), Lake View Lad (4.00), Massini’s Lady (4.30) & Another Mattie (5.05)

5 winners—Donald McCain (5/1**, 7/2, 5/4*, 4/6* & 8/15*) – 2 runners today: Snougar (1.50) & Askamore Darsi (5.05)

 

LEICESTER:

43 favourites – 19 winners – 9 placed – 15 unplaced

Average Placepot dividend: £383.54

Highest dividend: £1,653.50 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £34.00 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Venetia Williams is on the three winner mark (9/2, 2/1 & 15/8*), though Venetia is not represented at the track today

 

SANDOWN:

45 favourites – 13 winners – 15 placed – 17 unplaced

Average Placepot dividend: £89.37

Highest dividend: £185.70 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £10.90 (2012)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Paul Nicholls (15/8*, 7/4*, 10/11*, 2/9*, 1/5*) – 1 runner today: More Buck’s (3.40)

 

CHELTENHAM 2018

I will start Friday’s offering with best prices for UK v Ireland in terms of the number of races won next week – followed by in depth facts based on the last five years:

8/11–Most winners trained in Ireland (Skybet/Unibet/Boyle)

9/4–Most winners trained in UK (Betfair)

6/1–Tied result (Generally on offer)

Five year findings:

2017: UK 9 – Ireland 19

2016: UK13 – Ireland 15

2015: UK 17 – Ireland 10

2014: UK 15 – Ireland 12

2013: UK13 – Ireland 14

Totals: 67 – 70

Day by day results – UK v Ireland

Tuesday: UK 19 – Ireland 15

Wednesday: UK 19 – Ireland 16

Thursday: UK 16 – Irland 17

Friday: UK 13 – Ireland 22

Fact: Thursday has witnessed the biggest change around because the UK held an aggregate score of 10-2 over Ireland in 2014/15 whereas in the last two years, Ireland have held the call by a 12/2 margin.

BEST PRICES ON OFFER ON SPECIAL MARKETS AS OF NOON ON FRIDAY:

TOP TRAINER:

6/4–Willie Mullis (Skybet)

11/4–Nicky Henderson (Coral)

3/1–Gordon Elliott (PP)

TOP IRISH TRAINER (All odds offered by Betway):

4/6–Willie Mullins

11/8–Gordon Elliott

33/1–Jessica Harrington

TOP JOCKEY:

5/4–Ruby Walsh (Betway)

13/2–Barry Geraghty (Coral)

13/2–Jack Kennedy (188)

10/1–Davy Russell (Hills/Betway)

OFFICIAL GOING AT THE START OF THE MEETING:

4/7–Soft ((Almost across the board)

13/8–Good to soft (Betfred/Tote)

4/1–Heavy (Almost across the board)

200/1–Good (Betfred/Tote)

250/1–Amy other (Betfair/PP)

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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