Feb 12

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 12th

POINT OF ORDER – IF CATTERICK GET THE GREEN LIGHT TO RACE AT AROUND 8 O’CLOCK:

Donald McCain has saddled five winners during the last three years at the corresponding meeting at Catterick, the stats include two lots of (15/2 & 5/1) doubles during the period.  Donald has declared four runners at the track today: Rockalzaro (2.35), Golden Investment (3.05), Hit And Run (3.35) & The Some Dance Kid (4.35)

Sunday’s school report:

One 17/2 winner via five MMA offerings yesterday gave us another successful day, notwithstanding the 2/1 victory (backed down from 4/1) of Smuggler’s Stash at Ayr which had been pinpointed for the weekend for a couple days prior to the contest. That followed the 7/1 victory of Fearsome on Saturday who was similarly highlighted via the ‘Ahead of the Game’ sector.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The in from trainer division will now be dictated by trainers who are boasting a minimum strike rate of 33%, as followers were complaining of too many horses to sift through.

 

 

MONDAY (some really big priced ‘speculative’ offers today – advice is to stake accordingly):

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

CATTERICK:

2.35: Modulus – 9/1 (Generally available) – AVERAGE PRICE NOW 15/2

3.05: Allmyown – 20/1 – Generally available) – NOW 16/1

3.35: The Crazed Moon – 16/1 (PP) – NOW 14/1

4.05: No Planning – 10/1 (PP) – NOW 15/2

4.35: Justadreamyeken – 22/1 (Hills) – NOW 16/1

Additional Catterick entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

PLUMPTON:

2.15: Two 10/1 chances make some appeal given the ‘9/2 coupled’ opportunity: Tierra Verde (PP) & Diva Du Maquis (365/Hills) – NOW 15/2 & 7/1 RESPECTIVELY – COUPLE PRICE NOW 3/1

2.50: Holbrook Park – 8/1 (Generally available) – NOW 7/1

3.20: Norse Legend – 5/1 (PP) – NOW 4/1

Additional Plumpton entries at 8.00:

3.50: Sir Hubert – 7/1 (Generally available)

4.20: Landscape (25/1 (365)

4.50: Third Act – 9/2 (365/Marathon/BetVictor/Stan James) 

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.40: Battle Lines – 6/1 (PP) – NOW 5/1

6.10: Third Time Lucky – 10/1 (365) – NOW 8/1

8.40: Sheer Intensity – 25/1 (PP) – NOW 20/1

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.00:

6.40: Velvet Revolution – 5/1 (365/Betfair/Betbright)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

8/19—Anthony Honeyball (+11) – 1 at Plumpton – Le Coeur Net (3.50)

7/15—Rose Dobbin (+18) – 2 at Catterick: Jack Devine (2.00) & Monfass (3.35)

7/22—Chris Gordon (+45) – 3 at Plumpton: Ladofash (3.20), Ramore Will (3.50) & Be Daring (4.50)

6/18—Sue Smith (+6) – 3 at Catterick: Sharp Response (3.05) & No Planning & Straidnahanna (4.05)

5/10—John Gosden (+20) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Orchid Lily (5.40)

5/15—Kevin Ryan (+71) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Mount Tahan (6.10)

4/7—Colin Tizzard (+3) – 4 at Plumpton: Norse Legend (3.20), Sartorial Elegance (4.20) & Third Act & Kalarlika (4.50)

3/5—Rebecca Bastiman (+44) – 2 at Wolverhampton: See Vermont (7.40) & Gone With The Wind (8.40)

3/5—Ed Walker (+5) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Bold Prediction (8.10)

Last two runners have won—Dr Richard Newland (+8) – 1 at Catterick: Aaron Lad (2.35)

Last two runners have won—Harry Whittington (+3) – 1 at Plumpton: Tierra Verde (2.15)

2/3—Wearren Greatrex (+9) – 1 at Plumpton: Sandhurst Lad (4.20)

21 runners via in form trainers in race order:

2.00: Jack Devine

2.15: Tierra Verde

2.35: Aaron Lad

3.05: Sharp Response

3.20: Norse Legend & Ladofash

3.35: Monfass

3.50: Le Coeur Net & Ramore Will

4.05: No Planning & Straidnahaana

4.20: Sandhurst Lad & Sartorial Elegance

4.50: Third Act, Be Daring & Kalarika

5.40: Orchid Lily

6.10: Mount Tahan

7.40: See Vermont

8.10: Bold Predicton

8.40: Gone With The Wind

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

CATTERICK:

31 races – 13 winning favourites – All 31 winners scored at a top price of 17/2

Average Placepot dividend: £110.74

Highest dividend: £267.20 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £22.40 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Donald McCain (8/1, 9/2, 7/2, 8/15* &* 2/5*) – 4 runners: Rockalzaro (2.35), Golden Investment (3.05), Hit And Run (3.35) & The Some Dance Kid (4.35)

4 winners—Sue Smith (11/2, 9/2, 13/8* * 13/8*) – 3 runners: Sharp Response (3.05) & No Planning & Straidnahanna (4.05)

 

PLUMPTON (3 year study period – two meetings abandoned):

19 races – 7 winning favourites – 15/19 winners scored at a top price of 17/2

Average Placepot dividend: £252.43

Highest dividend: £717.40 (207) – Lowest dividend: £11.20 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Three trainers saddled a brace apiece, though the only handler to secure a (18/1) double was Colin Tizzard back in 2016.  Colin has declared four runners: Norse Legend (3.20), Sartorial Elegance (4.20) & Third Act & Kalarlika (4.50)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

38 races – 10 winning favourites – 32/38 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £406.02

Highest dividend: £935.80 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £19.10 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—David Evans (6/1, 10/3 & 9/4*) – 1 runner tonight: Sheer Intensity (8.40)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’:

TUESDAY:

SOUTHWELL:

2.55: Argante has been declared by Henry Spiller who has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect (+28 LSP).  Henry’s Singspiel gelding is his only runner this week, at least until Friday at the earliest.

4.00: Treaty Of Rome is Derek Shaw’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled both of his last two runners to winning effect.  Derek only has this one runner declared on Monday/Tuesday for good measure.

AYR:

Opening mares hurdle scheduled for 2.10: Irish trainer Stuart Crawford has saddled both winners to date, the trainer holding three entries this time around.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 3.50: Nicky Richards held two options at the four day stage in a race which he has won twice in the last three years when represented.

Conditional jockeys’ event scheduled for 4.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst six contests have slipped by since the last winning favourite was recorded

LINGFIELD: THIS IS A NEW MEETING

 

A/W STAT REPORT – IF ALL WATHER RACING FAILS TO ‘FLOAT YOUR BOAT’, HAVE A LOOK AT THE BOTTOM FIGURES AT LEAST WHICH SHOWS THAT YOU COULD HAVE GAINED 876 POINTS OF PROFIT IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS BY LAYING THE RUNNERS FROM JUST THREE POPULAR STABLES!

The orrering of trainers is governed by the top trainers as listed in 2017 – there will be five trainers listed each day this week until Friday.

TRAINER – JOHN GOSDEN:

Chelmsford: 29/125 (loss of 22 points)

Kempton: 57/243 (slight profit)

Lingfield: 39/207 (loss of 71)

Newcastle: 16/41 (+6)

Southwell: 7/17 (loss of 4)

Wolves: 47/140 (+7)

TRAINER – RICHARD FAHEY:

Chelmsford: 9/117 (loss of 43)

Kempton: 1/85 (loss of 74)

Lingfield: 25/203 (loss of 39)

Newcastle: 32/282 (loss of 48)

Southwell: 30/166 (loss of 25)

Wolves: 64/509 (loss of 50)

TRAINER – RICHARD HANNON:

Chelmsford: 28/211 (loss of 60)

Kempton: 58/510 (loss of 153)

Lingfield: 19/116 (slight loss)

Newcastle: 1/8 (loss of 6)

Southwell: 8/32 (+4)

Wolves: 34/205 (loss of 60)

TRAINER – MARK JOHNSTON:

Chelmsford: 39/265 (loss of 85)

Kempton: 28/232 (loss of 96)

Lingfield: 52/296 (loss of 56)

Newcastle: 6/29 (slight profit)

Southwell: 19/112 (loss of 30)

Wolves: 74/404 (loss of 55)

TRAINER – SIR MICHAEL STOUTE:

Chelmsford: 21/94 (+4)

Kempton: 26/161 (loss of 59)

Lingfield: 18/57 (+20)

Newcastle: 5/13 (+19)

Southwell: 0/1

Wolves: 10/69 (+9)

BY LAYING THE RUNNERS OF RICHARD FAHEY, RICHARD HANNON AND MARK JOHNSTON THESE LAST FIVE YEARS, THEIR AGGREGATE LOSSES Of 876 POINTS – COULD HAVE BEEN TURNED INTO YOUR GAIN!

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

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