Mar 12

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 12th

Sunday’s school report:

14/1 and 5/1 WINNERS for the MMA service yesterday, albeit to some small Rule 4 deductions – the diluted in form trainer service also paid its way en route to the Cheltenham Festival coverage.  Here’s hoping for comtinued positive results today…

APPROXIMMATE MONDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: MONDAYSTAT ATTACK – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.30: PLUMPTON ANALYSIS – VIA THE LINK ON MY TWITTER PAGE – DONE

8.00: MMA PRICE UPDATES + ADDITIONS IF/WHERE POSSIBLE – DONE

8.30: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

15.00: TUESDAY STAT ATTACKS – INCLUDING CHELTENHAM! – DONE

16.00: OTHER CHELTENHAM UPDATES/FEATURES FOR THE OPENING DAY – DONE

17.30: BETFAIR – MONEY PILING UP ON WHICH HORSES AT CHELTENHAM ON TUESDAY – BOTH LAYS & PLAYS? – DONE

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

PLUMPTON:

2.50: Ramore Will – 9/2 (365/BetVictor) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 4/1

3.20: Pop Rockstar – 15/2 (365) – NOW 11/2

4.50: King Cnut – 11/1 (Betyfair/PP/BetVictor) – NOW 8/1

Additional Plumpton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

TAUNTON:

2.40: Sandro Botticelli – 14/1 (PP) – NOW 10/1

3.40: Wotzizname – 9/4 (Ladbrokes/Unobet/Coral) – NOW 15/8

4.10: First Mohican – 14/1 (365/Skybet/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/1

4.40: Shows Over – 6/1 (Skybet/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 9/2

5.10: Rosy World – 2/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 6/4

Additional Taunton entries at 8.00:

2.10: Ballyantics – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tote/Betbright)

3.10: Ruby Russett – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betbright)

 

STRATFORD (ABANDONED):

 

 

CHELMSFORD:

6.15: Book Of Dreams – 16/1 (PP) – NOW 9/1

8.15: Bertie Blu Boy – 20/1 (PP/BetVictor) – NOW 14/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

6.45: Apex King – 9/1 (Betway)

7.15: Captain Pugwash – 13/2 (PP)

7.45: Angel Of The South – 7/1 (PP)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

4/6—Michael Appleby (+32) – 2 at Chelmsford: Indigo Princess (5.45) & Thai’r (7.15)

4/8—Jennie Candlish (+8) – 1 at Stratford (3.00)

3/4–Tom Lacey (+5) – 1 at Taunton: Vado Forte (4.10)

3/6—Charlie Longsdon (+7) – 1 at Stratford: Shanroe In Milan (2.30)

3/6—Gary Moore (+5) – 4 runners: Larry & Dell Oro (2.20 Plumpton), San Pedro De Senam (4.00 Stratford) & Goldslinger (4.50 Plumpton)

3/7—Nigel Twiston-Davies (+25) – 1 at Taunton – Ballycross (3.40)

2/3—Bob Buckler (+16) – 2 at Taunton: Regal Flow (3.40) & Cushuish (5.10)

12 runners via in form trainers in race order:

2.20: Larry & Dell Oro

2.30: Shanroe In Milan

3.00: Sleepy Haven

3.40: Regal Flow & Ballycross

4.00: San Pedro De Senam

4.10: Vado Forte

4.50: Goldslinger

5.10: Cushuish

5.45: Ondiigo Princess

7.15: Thai’r

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated)

*Point of order: Chris Gordon saddled five winners on this corresponding day last year, with all five winning which created a 934/1 treble.  I had alerted readers that morning that Chris should be kept in mind by punters that day!

PLUMPTON:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £310.06

Highest dividend: £1,354.10 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £4.20 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Chris Gordon (25/1, 4/1, 11/4, 5/2* & 5/4*) – 4 runners today: Ramore Will (2.50), Ballyleigue Bay (3.20), Loves Destination & King Knut (4.50)

 

STRATFORD (Three year study period – Meetings abandoned in 2016 & 2013):

20 races – 4 winning favourites – 17/20 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £108.07

Highest dividend: £125.30 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £98.60 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

2 winners—(Chris Gordon (5/1 & 11/8*) – 1 runner today: Baddesley Prince (5.00)

 

CHELMSFORD (Three year study – No previous meetings):

18 races – 7 winning favourites – 17/18 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £95.90

Highest dividend: £187.10 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £43.60 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

2 winners—Stuart Williams (9/2 twice) – 1 runner today: Able Jack (6.45)

 

TUESDAY STAT ATTACK – TODAY!

CHELTENHAM:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 25/34 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £170.24

Highest dividend: £436.70 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £38.90 (2016)

Every winning trainer on the Tuesday during the study period:

12 winners—Willie Mullins (10 favourites + winners at 5/1 & 6/1)

13 runners: Getabird & Sharjah (1.30), Footpad (2.10), Faugheen, Melon, Wicklow Brave & Yorkhill (3.30), Pravalagauna & Benie Des Dieux (4.10), Rathvinden & Pylon The Pressure (4.50) & Livelovelugh & Demi Song (5.30)

5—Nicky Henderson (16/1, 5/1, 4/1, 8/15* & 1/4*)

13 runners: Claimantakinforgan (1.30), Brain Power (2.10), Beware The Bear, O O Seven & Gold Present (2.50), Verdana Blue, Buveur D’Air, My Tent Or Yours & Chili Parcs (3.30), Kayf Grace (4.10), Reigning Supreme (4.50) & Divine Spear & Rather Be (5.30)

4—Gordon Elliott (25/1, 16/1, 8/1 & 7/2)

7 runners: Mengli Khan (1.30), Mick Jazz (3.30), Apples Jade (4.10), Mossback & Jury Duty (4.50) & Tycoon Prince & De Lottish Shed (5.30)

3—David Pipe (33/1, 11/1 & 9/1)

2 runners: Eamon An Cnoic & Ramses De Teillee (2.50)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (10/1 & 8/1)

No runners on Tuesday this year

1 each for Colin Tizzard (28/1 – 5 runners), Ian Williams (12/1 – No runners), Rebecca Curtis (11/1 – No runners), Mrs John Harrington (9/1 – No runners), Alan Fleming (8/1 – 1 runner), Alan King (8/1 – 2 runners), Neil Mulholland (8/1 – 2 runners) & Jamie Snowden (8/1 – No runners)

*Point of order – Twelve favourites have won on the opening day of the meeting during the last five years, ten of which have been saddled by Willie Mullins.  For the record, Nicky Henderson saddled the other two successful market leaders

Trainers of doubles or more on the day at Cheltenham:

1,988/1 treble—Gordon Elliott (2017)

26/1 treble—Willie Mullins (2013)

25/1 double—Nicky Henderson (2013)

13/2 double—Willie Mullins (2014)

6/1 treble—Willie Mullins (2016)

Ireland lead the UK 19-9 on the first day during the last five years

 

SEDGEFIELD (Four year history – Meeting abandoned in 2013):

28 races – 12 winning favourites – All 28 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £77.78

Highest dividend: £153.00 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £42.50 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Ken Slack (3 winners at 9/2, 15/8* & 8/13*) is not represented on Tuesday unfortunately

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

35 races – 16 winning favourites – All 35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £56.50

Highest dividend: £152.40 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £8.00 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Derek Shaw (11/2, 2/1* & 6/4*) – 1 runner today: Elliot The Dragon (3.45)

 

TRAINERS WITH THE MOST WINNERS OF THE RELEVANT RACES ON DAY ONE:

1.30: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (5 wins) – 2 runners: Getabird & Sharjah

2.10: Racing Post Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade1) – Nicky Henderson (6 wins) – Brain Power

2.50: Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – Recent best: David Pipe (3 wins) – 2 runners: Eamon An Cnoic & Ramses De Teillee

3.30: Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – Nicky Henderson (6 wins) – 4 runners: Buveur D’Air, Verdana Bleu, Mt Tent Or Yours & Charlie Parks

4.10: OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (8 wins) – 2 runners: Pravalgauana & Benie des Dieux

4.50: National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) – Jonjo O’Neill (6) – No runners this year

5.30: Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) – No outstanding trainer

 

MONEY PILING UP ON BETFAIR AT 5.30 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING – SUGGESTING THAT THESE HORSES MIGHT RUN BETTER AT CHELTENHAM THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THIS SERVICE DOES NOT REPLACE TOMORROW’S MMA SERVICE YOU UNDERSTAND, IT’S JUST THAT YOU MIGHT FIND SOME VALUE BEFORE THINGS HOT UP TOMORROW MORNING:

1.30: PALOMA BLUE – BEST PRICE TONIGHT IS 16/1 (BETFAIR/PP) – PLENTY OF MONEY IN THE POSITIVE QUEUE AT THAT TYPE OF PRICE.

2.10: CONTRARY TO WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN EXPECTED 24/48 HOURS AGO, SAINT CALVADOS HAS VERY MUCH REPLACED PETIT MOUCHOIR AS THE SECOND FAVOURITE – 3/1 (BETFAIR/ PP/BOYLESPORTS) IS UNDER PRESSURE AT THE TIME OF WRITING.

2.50: COGRI HAS BEEN THE BUZZ HORSE TODAY, BACKED DOWN TO 16/1 RIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD – BETFAIR TRADING AT THE TIME OF WRITING SUGGESTS THAT HE WILL NOT START AT A BIGGER PRICE.

3.30: FAUGHEEN IS VERY EASY TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING

4.10: APPLES JADE IS NOT AS POPULAR AS BUVEUR D’AIR ON THE EXCHANGES AT VIRTUALLY THE SAME PRICE ON THE BOOKS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE EVENTS.  IF I HAD TO POINT YOU IN THE DIRECTION OF A HUGE OUTSIDER TO REACH THE FRAME – MIDNIGHT TOUR ATTRACTS THE EYE AT 66/1 THIS EVENING.

4.50: MS PARFOIS IS 7/1 WITH PLENTY OF FIRMS AND THERE IS AN INDICATION ON THE EXCHANGES THAT THE PRICE MIGHT BE TOUGH TO BEAT TOMORROW MORNING.

5.30: RATHER BE (12/1 WITH BOYLESPORTS) AND LIVELOVELAUGH (16/1 WITH SPORTINGBET) ARE EACH WAY TYPES TO CONSIDER AT THOSE PRICES – GIVEN THE REALISTIC MONEY IN THE POSITIVE EXCHANGE QUEUE.

THESE ARE HORSES FOR YOU TO CONSIDER – NOTHING MORE – NOTHING LESS – LET’S SEE WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS – WHY NOT JOIN ME AT 5.00!

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.