Feb 19

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 19th

LATE MESSAGE (AS OF 11.50) – NEWS OF A NEW SERVICE WHICH YOU CAN FIND AT THE FOOT OF THE COLUMN!

By way of an apology for yesterday’s brief service due to illness (albeit an 8/1 MMA WINNER was included + 10/1 WINNER for Peter Bowen via the Ffos Las Stat Attack), I am offering some stats for you immediately below – which will be followed by the usual service for Monday:

The media offer lists of trainers via prize money which has been won but for punters, it’s far more important to see how many winners have been secured, alongside strike rates etc.

The following lists shows current relevant ratios, whilst offering leading stats from individual courses for each trainer.

NH:

135 winners—Dan Skelton (21% strike rate) – best racecourses include: 10/27 at Bangor, 9/24 at Wetherby, 7/18 at Sedgefield & 2/3 at Hexham

107—Nicky Henderson (29% S/R) – 7/16 Huntingdon, 7/17 Worcester, 6/16 Sandown, 5/13 Southwell, 4/10 Taunton & 2/3 Ffos Las

91—Paul Nicholls (23% S/R) – 16/33 Newton Abbot, 10/26 Kempton, 4/11 Musselburgh & 3/8 Warwick

85—Donald McCain (21% S/R) – 8/17 Haydock, 4/8 Stratford & 3/8 Wetherby

64—Nigel Twiston-Davies (16% S/R) – 3/6 Leicester, 3/7 Exeter, 2/3 Lingfield & 2/4 Carlisle

A/W:

14 winners—Michael Appleby (11% S/R) – Best record of 5/29 at Chelmsford but shows level stake losses at all six all weather venues thus far

12—Archie Watson (29%) – 6/13 Lingfield, 4/11 Kempton & 2/4 Wolves

10—John Gosden (29%) – 4/6 Newcastle & 4/12 Lingfield

10—Mark Johnston (22%) – Best scenario to repost is level stake profit of 15 points at Wolverhampton via stats of 3/15

9—Charlie Appleby (38%) – 3/5 Newcastle, 3/7 Lingfield & 2/5 Kempton

9—Andrew Balding (18%) – 5/16 Lingfield

9—David Simcock (18%) – 3/10 Chelmsford & 2/2 Southwell

9—Jamie Osborne (12%) – 1/1 Southwell – L/S losses at all other tracks

 

‘Cheltenham Eve’ is just three weeks away, whereby I thought it was time that I offered the current trainer lists at Prestbury Park this season again, prior to the commencement of the Festival:

CHELTENHAM PRE-FESTIVAL STATS THIS SEASON:

68 races – 23 winning favourites – 62/68 scored at a top price of 12/1

9/28—Nicky Henderson (5/1, 9/1, 4/1, 5/2*, 15/8*, 13/8*, Evens*, 1/7* & 1/10*) – Level stake profit

7/38—Colin Tizzard (3/1, 5/2, 2/1*, 7/4, 5/4*, 10/11* & 4/5*)

7/41—Nigel Twiston-Davies (25/1, 9/1, 15/2, 13/2, 6/1, 9/4** & 6/5*) – Level stake profit

4/28—Paul Nicholls (13/2, 4/1, 5/2 & 9/4*)

3/18—Dan Skelton (7/2**, 10/3 & 6/4)

3/23—Fergal O’Brien (8/1, 7/1 & 7/4*)

2/3—Anthony Honeyball (9/2** & 3/1) – Level stake profit

2/5—Kerry Lee (7/2 & 10/3*) – Level stake profit

2/5—Neil Mulholland (10/1 & 3/1*) – Level stake profit

2/6—Alan King (10/1 & 15/8**) – Level stake profit

2/15—Martin Keighley (33/1 & Evens*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Michael Blake (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Mick Channon (6/1) – Level stake profit

1/2—Robert Walford (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/3—Michael Scudamore (14/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Brian Ellison (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Chris Gordon (20/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Paul Henderson (13/2) – Level stake profit

1/4—Donald McCain (8/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Nicky Richards (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/5—Henry De Bromhead (9/4)

1/5—Jamie Snowden (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/7—Warren Greatrex (5/2)

1/8—Gordon Elliott (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/8—Ben Pauling (6/1)

1/8—Tim Vaughan (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/11—Nick Williams (9/1)

1/12—Harry Fry (11/4*)

1/12—David Pipe (11/1) – Level on the year

1/16—Philip Hobbs (4/1)

1/19—Tom George (11/2)

Biggest losses this season to date include:

0/14—Jonjo O’Neill

0/13—Ian Wiliams

0/10—Charlie Longsdon

0/6—Kim Bailey

0/6—Peter Bowen

0/6—Evan Williams

0/5—Venetia Williams

May Hunter Chase meeting – winning trainers aside from Fergal O’Brien and Ben Pauling:

1/1—D C Gibbs (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Paul King (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Philip Rowley (8/13*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Miss L Thomas (9/4*) – Level stake profit

1/3—R J Bandey (12/1) – Level stake profit

—————————————————————————————————————–

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES UPDATED + 3 ADDITIONS:

CARLISLE:

3.00: Swing Hard – 4/1 (Generally available) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 3/1

3.35: Slanelough – 4/1 (Generally available) – NOW 7/2

4.05: Pinch Of Ginger – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 5/1

4.40: Point The Way – 7/1 (PP) – NOW 6/1

Additional Carlisle entries at 8.30:

NONE

 

LINGFIELD (NH):

3.15: Belle Empress – 16/1 (Hills) – NOW 10/1

4.25: Lost History – 6/1 (PP/Hills/Betfred/Tote/Coral) – NOW 4/1

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.30:

3.50: Wood Yer – 14/1 (Stan James)

4.55: Rouge Et Blanc – 10/1 Skybet/Boyle

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

5.20: Hi There Silver – 14/1 (PP) – NOW 9/1

6.20: Two horses to consider: Frozen Lake – 10/1 (PP) & Smugglers Creek – 11/2 (365/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 15/2 & 5/1 RESPECTIVELY

7.20: Pastoral Dreams – 11/1 (Hills/PP) – NOW 9/1

7.50: Jumping Jack (7/1 (Hills/Betfair/Betbright) – NOW 11/2

8.20: Fitzwilly – 10/1 (Hills) – NOW 9/1

Additional Kempton entry at 8.30:

6.50: Poppy On The Eind – 7/1 )Skybet/Marathon/Betfred/Tote/Boyle

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

9/26—Henry Daly (+20) – 1 at Lingfield: Artful Cobbler (3.50)

8/24—Sue Smith (+7) – 4 at Carlisle: Le Drapeau (2.00), Swing Hard (3.00), Blottos (3.35) & Never Up (4.40)

6/14—Rose Dobbin +16) – 2 at Carlisle: Slanelough (3.35) & Bako De La Sailaie (4.40)

5/11—Fergal O’Brien (+13) – 1 at Lingfield: Petite Power (3.50)

4/12—Warren Greatrex (+7) – 1 at Lingfield: Class Of D Titans (3.15)

Last three runners have won—Chris Gordon (+15) – 1 at Kempton: Jumping Jack (7.50)

3/7—David Dennis (+7) – 1 at Lingfield: Cyclop (3.50)

3/8—Emma Lavelle (+6) – 1 at Lingfield (3..15)

3/8—Jamie Osborne (+11) – 3 at Kempton: Palawan (6.20), Alifax (7.20) & Manchego (7.50)

Last two runners have won—Charlie Fellowes (+10) – 1 at Kempton: Light Laughter (6.50)

Last two runners have won—Andrew Hamilton (+5) – 1 at Carlisle: Letmego (4.05)

Last two runners have won—Pat Phelan (+8) – 2 chances: Amanda’s Teddy (1.45 Lingfield) & Hackburidge (7.20 Kempton)

2/3—Venetia Williams (+8) – 1 at Lingfield: Roc Merle (3.15)

2/4—John Butler (+7) – 1 at Kempton: Connemara Queen (6.20)

2/4—Zoe Davison (+26) – 1 at Lingfield: Finnegan’s Garden (2.45)

2/5—Andrew Balding – 2 at Kempton: Queen Moon (5.20) & Luna Eclipse (7.20)

2/5—Micky Hammond (+30) – 2 at Carlisle: Dakota Grey (2.30) & Christmas Twenty (4.05)

26 runners via in form trainers in race order:

1.45: Amanda’s Teddy

2.00: Le Drapeau

2.30: Dakota Grey

2.45: Finnegan’s Garden

3.00: Swing Hard

3.15: Belle Empress

3.15: Clash Of D Titans & Roc Merle

3.35: Slanelough & Blottos

3.50: Artful Cobbler, Cyclop & Petite Power

4.05: Letmego & Christmas Twenty

4.40: Bako De La Sailaie & Never Up

5.20: Queen Moon

6.20: Palawan & Connemara Queen

6.50: Light Laughter

7.20: Luna Eclipse, Hackbridge & Alifax

7.50: Jumping Jack & Manchego

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

 

CARLISLE (four year study – meeting was abandoned in 2014):

25 races – 8 winning favourites – 24/25 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £112.00

Highest dividend: £151.20 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £51.10 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Unfortunately, the trainer with the most winners (Venetia Williams via three gold medallists) is not represented today.

Two other trainers to consider are Nigel Hawke and Phil Kirby who have both bagged a brace.  Nigel secured a 44/1 double on the corresponding card last year and saddles three today; namely Take A Break (2.30), Lord Ballim (3.35) & Point N Shoot (4.05).  Phil Kirby has saddled winners at 22/1 and 9/2 and is represented today by Sakhee’s City (3.35)

 

LINGFIELD (Only two meetings to report):

13 races – 7 winning favourites – 12/13 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £26.40

Highest dividend: £28.40 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £24.40 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

No qualifiers today as all 13 races were won by different trainers.

 

NEW SERVICE – I cannot pretend that I will be able to offer this service every day due to planning workload though where possible, I will do my best to provide the information.  This is no different from the in form trainer service, other than you get to see the trainers today, as they have no runners this afternoon to change their ratios overnight.  This might help with people wanting to try and get on early on the exchanges or in big races, take a price about your fancy.  Either way, I hope that you like the notion.

TUESDAY – IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

11/42—Jamie Snowden (+2) – 1 at Wetherby: Lunar Flow

10/23—Anthony Honeyball (+20) – 1 at Taunton: Solstice Twilight (2.40)

6/21—Kevin Ryan (+70) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Dalawyna (7.40)

5/10—Dan Skelton (+9) – 3 at Taunton: Sea Of Mystery (2.10), Hurricane Hollow (3.45) & Ckalco Des Loges (4.15)

5/10—Ed Walker (+12) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Mood For Mischief (6.40)

4/5—Keith Dalgleish (+14) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Jack Blane (7.10)

4/11—Charlie Appleby – 1 at Wolverhampton: Warburton (6.40)

3/6—Michael Appleby (+8) – 5 at Wolverhampton: Ramblow (6.10), Something Lucky (7.10), Persian Prize (7.40), Traumatised (8.10) & What Usain (8.40)

3/6—Dr Richard Newland (+9) – 1 at Taunton: Caid du Lin (3.45)

3/7—Mike Murphy (+20) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Desert Fox (7.10)

2/3—Tom Dascombe (+1) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Barnaby Brook (8.40)

Last two runners have won—Grant Cann (+9) – 1 at Taunton: Cadeau De Bresil (3.10)

2/4—Ivan Furtado (+11) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Scribner Creek (8.40)

19 runners in race order via the early in-form trainer list:

2.10: Sea Of Mystery

2.40: Solstice Twilight

3.10: Cadeau Du Bresil

3.45: Hurricane Hollow & Caid du Lin

4.15: Ckalco Des Loges

4.40: Lunar Flow

6.10: Ramblow

6.40: Mood For Mischief & Warburton

7.10: Jack Blane, Desert Fox & Something Lucky

7.40: Persian Prize & Dalawyna

8.10: Traumatised

8.40: Scribner Creek, Barnaby Brook & What Usain

 

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

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