May 21

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 21st

PLEASE NOTE – THE NEW 2-Y-O SERVICE WHICH STARTS TODAY – PLEASE TELL YOUR FRIENDS/WORK COLLEAGUES/FAMILY MEMBERS BECAUSE MORE ‘MEMBERS’ WILL ENSURE THAT I DON’T HAVE TO GO INTER ‘EARLY RETIREMENT’ FOLLOWING A RECENT MINOR HEART ATTACK…..

Sunday’s school report:

9/1 WINNER late doors (returned at 4/1) bailed Mal out of some of the trouble yesterday – not helped by no less than five silver medallists (average price of 13/2) and a 33/1 placed horse which was returned at 25’s. That was a heavy Sunday afternoon shift – and then some!

 

MONDAY – APPROXIMATE TIMELINE:

3.30: Where your money went at the Dante meeting at York last week – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.45: MAL’S WINDSOR ANALYSIS (via my Twitter page) – DONE

7.15: MONDAY STAT ATTACK – DONE

7.30: NEW FEATURE: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – OFF THE RADAR BUT COULD RUN WELL – DONE

7.45: FOOTBALL SERVICE (includes a re-run of yesterday World Cup work) – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATE- DONE WITH 3 ADDITIONS

 

  • POINT OF INTEREST – EACH WAY ‘PLAY DAY’ VIA LOW STAKES, WITH ONLY WINDSOR OFFERING A FEW DECENT RACES ON THEIR CARD

 

MMA SERVICE (at 5.00 am)

CARLISLE:

3.15: Question Of Faith – 7/1 (365)

4.15: Butterfly Lily – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.15: Mywayistheonlyway – 15/2 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Carlisle entry at 8.00:

2.45: Cherry Oak (5/1 (Betfred/Tote)

 

LEICESTER:

7.00: Dubai Empire – 11/2 (PP/Unibet/BetVictor)

7.30: The Establishment – 5/1 (365/Skybet/Hills/PP)

8.00: Silca Mistress – 20/1 (PP/Betfair)

8.30: Carry Me Home – 18/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Leicester entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

REDCAR:

3.05: Shay C – 16/1 (365)

4.05: Monks Stand – 40/1 (365)

5.35: Elysee Star – 13/2 (365/PP/Betfair/BetVcitor)

Additional Redcar entry at 8.00:

2.35: Ingleby Molly – 4/1 (Betfred/Tote)

 

WINDSOR:

7.15: Di Alta – 13/2 (PP)

7.45: D’bai – 6/1 (BetBright)

8.15: Solar Gold – 4/1 (Ladbrokes)

8.45: Biotic – 13/2 (PP)

Additional Windsor entry at 8.00:

6.45: Crimean Queen – 14/1 (365)

 

TOWCESTER:

2.55: Trojan Star – 6/1 (PP/Betfred)

3.25: No Hiding Place – 5/2 (PP)

3.55: Mercers Court – 14/1 (Hills/PP/BetVictor)

4.55: Stupid Cupid – 25/1 Ladbrokes)

Additional Towcester entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACKS:

CARLISLE:

This is Carlisle’s first flat meeting of the season.  Last year’s corresponding meeting secured doubles for two trainers who have runners at the track today:

Richard Fahey (10/1 double) – 3 runners: Cosmic Law (2.15) & Ventura Gold & Knowing Glance (4.45)

Keith Dalgleish (44/1 double) – 3 runners: Uptown Funk (3.15), Broken Wings (4.45) & Zoravan (5.15)

 

LEICESTER:

7 races this season – 3 winning favourites – All 7 winners scored at a top price of 7/1

Seven different trainers have saddled the winners at Leicester this season, the pick of which (today) might prove to be Mark Johnston who secured his success via just two winners on the previous card.  Mark might claim a double via his two runners tonight, namely Making Miracles (7.00) & X Rated (8.30)

 

REDCAR:

7 races this season – 4 winning favourites – 6/7 winners scored at a top price of 13/2

For future reference, the leading trainer here via just the one previous meeting is William Haggas (2/3) though William is not represented today.  The pick of the other trainers who have scored here could prove to be Ismail Mohammed (13/2 winner) who saddles a horse with an each way squeak at around the 12/1 mark, namely Counter Spirit (3.35).  Out of interest, Ismail has only saddled the one winner this season from nine runners thus far.

 

WINDSOR:

28 races – 13 winning favourites – 24/28 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainers at Windsor this season:

No trainer has saddled more than two winners at the alternative royal venue this season and in the absence of Peter Hedger (also boasting a 2/2 ratio), John Gosden could provide us with a winner, the popular handler having just Margie’s Choice (8.15) declared on the card.

 

TOWCESTER:

14 races – 7 winning favourites – All 14 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainers at Towcester this season:

3/5—Nicky Henderson (9/2, 4/7* & 1/3*) – 2 runners today: No Hiding Place (3.25) & Take To Heart (4.25)

2/3—Seamus Mullins (5/1 & 2/1) – 2 entries: Westerberry (2.55) & Boola River (4.55)

 

NEW FEATURE – TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – OFF THE RADAR BUT COULD RUN WELL AND CERTAINLY WORTH NOTING FOR THE FUTURE IF SHOWING PROMISE TODAY:

2.15 Redcar: Certain Lad – Mick Channon’s quote; “A lovely horse who does everything in a professional manner”.  Early indications from the exchanges suggest that today might not be the day on his first day at school – we’ll see…

6.00 Leicester – Fast Endeavour – Michael Bell has been full of praise for this Pastoral Pursuits filly – Michael’s stats with juveniles on turf this season: 3/8

6.15 Windsor – Implicit & Lucky Charm – Any money for Implicit would be worth heeding from James Tate’s shrewd yard, whilst Chris Wall also trained the mother of Lucky Charm who won as a juvenile

 

WHERE YOUR MONEY WENT LAST WEEK AT YORK (DANTE MEETING):

Next meeting at York: This coming Saturday (26th) – these stats could prove useful!

21 races – 7 winning favourites – 20/21 winner scored at a top price of 12/1

Record of trainers with winners:

3/7—John Gosden (3/1* – 2/1* – 4/6*)

3/9—Mark Johnston (8/1 – 7/2 – 11/4* = 15/1 double on the last day)

3/20—Richard Fahey (11/1 – 10/1 – 11/4* = 857/1 treble on the first day)

2/3—John Quinn (20/1 & 15/2)

2/4—Clive Cox (11/4* & 4/9*)

2/6—William Haggas (4/1 & 7/2 = 21/1 double on the first day)

1/1—Gay Kelleway (11/1)

1/1—Tom Tate (7/1)

1/2—Michael Bell (12/1)

1/3—David Menuisier (3/1)

1/4—Charlie Hills (9/2)

1/7—Charlie Appleby (5/2)

Negative trainer figures from last week’s Dante meeting include:

0/15—David O’Meara

0/12—Kevin Ryan

0/7—Richard Hannon

0/6—Andrew Balding

0/4—Mick Channon

0/3—Aidan O’Brien

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FINAL – SATURDAY – BEST PRICES:

63/50–Real Madrid (Marathon)

56/25–Draw (Marathon)

11/4–Liverpool Generally available)

Half time betting: 

9/5–Real Madrid (Black Type)

6/4–Draw (365)

13/5–Liverpool (Betfair)

Half time/Full time odds: 

13/5–RM/RM (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/Bet Stars/BetVictor)

15/1–RM/Draw – Bet Victor – as short as 10/1 elsewhere)

30/1–RM/Liverpool (188 – as short as 22/1 in places)

21/4–Draw-RM (marathon/Unibet/888)

36/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon – just 9/2 in places)

15/2–Draw/Liverpool (Unibet/Betfred/888 – as short as 6/1 elsewhere)

25/1–Liverpool/RM (188 – only 17/1 in a place)

15/1–Liverpool/Draw (BetVictor – as short as 10/1 with others)

9/2–Liverpool/Liverpool (Betfair – just 7/2 on offer with some firms)

TO LIFT THE TROPHY ON SATURDAY:

8/11–Real Madrid (Generally available)

23/17–Liverpool (188 – or  13/10 (slightly shorter) with 888)

 

WORLD CUP ASSESSMENT – TAKE 3:

There is no more certain scenario when assessing odds at the World Cup finals that in one sector of the games, the prices on offer are going to shift dramatically – in all probability.

The last set of games in the Group stage offer us a chance to use our intellect in assessing how the previous two games for each team will have developed.

You will find the best prices (at the time of writing) for all 16 games played at the final stage of the Group matches – whilst offering odds for the ‘big match’ of the group in each case, if there is one on offer.

 

GROUP ‘A’ – Monday June 25th – 3.00 Kick off – matches played at the same time:

8/11—Egypt (Skybet/Betfair)

11/4—Draw (Betfair)

5/1—Saudi Arabia (Marathon)

 

17/10—Uruguay (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

2/1—Russia (Generally available)

This is the potential crunch match of the group

 

GROUP ‘B’ – Monday June 25th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/11—Portugal (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Iran (Unibet)

4/11—Spain (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Morocco (Sportingbet)

 

The big game of Group B – Friday 15th – 7.00 Kick off:

10/11—Spain (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (Generally available)

37/10—Portugal (Bet Stars)

 

GROUP ‘C’ – Tuesday 26th June – 3.00 Kick off:

6/5—Peru (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

13/5—Australia (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

3/5—France (Marathon)

29/10—Draw (Betfair)

11/2—Denmark (Betfair)

This is the most important match in the group

 

GROUP ‘D’ – Tuesday 26th June – 7.00 Kick off:

Evens—Croatia (Marathon)

13/5—Draw (Betfair)

4/1—Iceland (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

8/13—Argentina (Betfair)

10/3—Draw (Hills)

7/1—Nigeria (365 – as short as 9/2 elsewhere)

 

The big game of Group D – Thursday 21st – 7.00 Kick off:

19/20—Argentina (Betfair)

13/5—Draw (888)

4/1—Croatia (Bet Stars – odds look a tad too big)

 

GROUP ‘E’ – Wednesday June 27th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/9—Brazil (Hills)

4/1—Draw (Skybet/365)

17/2—Serbia (Bet Stars)

 

11/12—Switzerland (Betfair/188)

53/20—Draw (Marathon)

19/5—Costa Rica (Unibet – odds look big enough)

 

GROUP ‘F’ – Wednesday June 27th – 3.00 Kick off:

2/7—Germany (Skybet/Bet Stars/BetBright)

5/1—Draw (Betfair)

12/1—South Korea (Betfair/Sportingbet)

 

13/8—Mexico (Betfair)

11/5—Draw (Unibet/Betfair)

11/5—Sweden (Unibet)

This is arguably the big match in the group

 

GROUP ‘G’ – Thursday June 28th – 7.00 Kick off:

8/5—Belgium (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Marathon)

21/10—England (Betfair)

This is the crunch match in the group

 

7/5—Tunisia (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

12/5—Panama (Skybet)

 

GROUP ‘H’ – Thursday June 28th – 3.00 Kick off:

19/20—Poland (Hills)

127/50—Draw (Marathon)

18/5—Japan (Betfair)

 

Evens—Colombia (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

7/2—Senegal (Marathon)

 

The big game of Group H – Sunday 4th – 7.00 Kick off:

13/8—Colombia (Betfair)

23/10—Draw (188)

21/10—Poland (Marathon)

 

Much depends on the accuracy of how you predict the results of the earlier games in the groups but if can get those games right – you should be able to make money on these four days of the tournament, even if the later stages are not so beneficial!

 

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