Jan 22

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 22nd

Sunday’s school report:

Three second placed horses early doors yesterday looked as though it was pointing towards a frustrating day but along came an 8/1 winner for the MMA service which was returned at 4/1.

Some readers seem to have become MMA followers of the service to the detriment of the other pointers I offer which can lead to missing out on half decent opportunities.

Yesterday’s Thurles briefing wasn’t too far wide of the mark, whilst the Lisa Williamson comment regarding Chelmsford would have rewarded each investors a reasonable return about the 14/1 chance which was returned at 8/1.

By all means home in on your favourite sector of what I have to offer but other clues are worth perusing, even if only applied to limited/minimum stakes from time to time.

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – NOW UPDATED WITH JUST TWO ADDITIONS + PRICE CHANGES

POINT OF ORDER AT 5.15 am – Very quiet on the MMA front this morning – please note caution when looking at offerings where loose change/minimum stakes is advised as they are generally offered as speculative calls. Yesterday’s 80/1 offering was a case in point, albeit there should have been no losses incurred given that the starting price was returned at 20/1!  I expect the Fakenham prices (especially) to have developed further by the time that my 8.00 am update evolves – Did not happen in reality!

FAKENHAM:

3.25: Dougalstar – 50/1 (small change – 365) – NOW 33/1 (AVERAGE PRICE)

3.55: Heresmynumber – 22/1 (minimum stake – Hills/Marathon) – NOW 14/1

Additional Fakenham entry at 8.00:

1.25: Yourholidayisover – 15/2 (Stan James)

WOLVERHAMPTON:

4.20: Hocus Pocus – 18/1 (small change – Skybet) – NOW 14/1

5.20: Gift In Time – 9/2 (Paddy Power) – NOW 10/3

6.20: Mustaqeem – 7/1 (Ladbrokes) – NOW 6/1

6.50: Maestro Mac – 11/2 (PP) – NOW 4/1

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.00:

5.50: Sonniest – 7/2 (Betfred/Tote)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

7/25—Charlie Appleby (+2) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Cross Counter (4.50)

5/12—Olly Murphy (+4) – 11 at Fakenham: Hurricane Rita & Ataman (1.25), Rio Quinto & Piri Massini (1.55),  More Than Luck (2.25), Captiva Island,  No Alarm & Flynnvincible (2.55), Wood Pigeon (3.25) & Flow With Eve & Bisoubisou (3.55)

4/5—Jamie Snowden (+6) – 1 at Fakenham: Oscar Star (1.55)

4/11—Keith Dalgleish (+32) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Ray Purchase (4.20)

4/14—Michael Easterby (+6) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Harvest Day (4.20)

4/16—Karl Burke (+24) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Champagne Pink (6.50)

3/6—Tom Dascombe (+25) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Big Time Maybe (5.20)

3/11—Mark Johnston (2) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Emilia James (5.20)

18 runners via in form trainers in race order:

1.25: Hurricane Rita & Ataman

1.55: Oscar Star, Rio Quinto & Piri Massini

2.25: More Than Luck

2.55: Captiva Island,  No Alarm & Flynnvincible

3.25 Wood Pigeon

3.55: Flow With Eve & Bisoubisou

4.20: Harvest Day & Ray Purchase

4.50: Cross Counter

5.20: Big Time Maybe & Emilia James

6.50: Champagne Pink

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

FAKENHAM (Three year study – first meeting in 2014 – last year’s meeting was abandoned):

19 races – 6 winning favourites – All 19 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £89.90

Highest dividend: £191.60 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £17.50 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

17 different trainers have saddled the 19 winners – no outstanding trainer

WOLVERHAMPTON:

38 races – 16 winning favourites – 36/38 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £79.58

Highest dividend: £158.90 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £11.20 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Seven trainers have saddled a brace of winners down the years, though it’s Ian Williams who might be the man to home in on given his 62/1 double at last year’s meeting (20/1 & 2/1*).

Ian held two options the other side of the weekend but now relies on Paddy The Chef (4.30) to snare the swag.

 

Since you joined this service, I hope that I have emphasised the point I am always trying to ram home to punters in that losing money in racing can often be put down to idleness.

If you expect to get anything out of life without putting something in – you won’t get far, and racing/punting is no different.

Yes, I will help as much as I can along the way but don’t rely on me all the time to furnish you with stats and facts when I have offered them once already.  Take notes (cut and paste if you can) and keep the records for the next time they are relevant – something you can do with the following pieces of information.

You will note from the Fontwell results below that I don’t just ‘look up facts’ – I create my own; hence the winning prices, not just the ratios.

Part of the process of my work is to change your mind set to join the real world and leave ‘blame culture’ behind.

 

DONCASTER (FRIDAY & SATURDAY) DETAILS:

Leading trainers this season at Doncaster + entries for Friday:

4/19—Jonjo O’Neill (16/1, 8/1, 7/1 & 2/1* = +18) – 9 entries

3/9—Emma Lavelle (11/1, 9/4 & 6/4* = +8) – 1 entry

3/9—Dan Skelton (5/1, 2/1 & 10/11 = +2) – 4 entries

36 races at Doncaster this season – 17 winning favourites – 33/36 winners were returned at a top price of 11/1

 

LEADING TRAINERS AT FONTWELL THIS SEASON AFTER YESTERDAY’S RESULTS (Next scheduled meeting: Sunday 28th January):

6/13—Anthony Honeyball (10/1, 7/1, 4/1**, 3/1, 7/4* & 4/7*)

6/29—Neil Mulholland (10/1, 11/2, 7/2, 10/3*, 2/1 & 10/11*)

6/62—Gary Moore (14/1, 9/2, 2/1, 7/4* 13/8 & 5/4*)

5/17—Jeremy Scott (6/1, 5/1, 7/2, 2/1* & 4/7*)

5/43—Chris Gordon (9/2, 7/2, 7/4*, 6/4* & 8/11*)

4/9—Alan King (7/1, 15/8, 4/5* & 1/6*)

4/17—Cilin Tizzard (7/1, 15/8*, 13/8* & 8/13*)

4/20—Dan Skelton (5/1, 10/3, 6/4* & 11/8)

4/38—Seamus Mullins (20/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 10/3)

107 races at Fontwell so far this season – 41 winning favourites – 103/107 scored at a top price of 11/1

 

SECOND PART of the Scottish/Welsh trainer ratios following yesterday’s offering – third part to follow tomorrow, bearing mind that Kelso are scheduled to race on Thursday.  I will offer up a ‘short list’ of trainers who boast good records at the track that morning.

Harry Fry:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/2

Kelso: No runners – 0/3

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/2

Perth: No runners – 0/1

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/8

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 2/39/27

Chepstow: 1/7 – 1/19

Ffos Las: 1/2 – 2/10

Welsh totals to date: 4/12 – 12/56

 

Fergal O’Brien:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 2/24/8

Kelso: No runners – 0/2

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/1

Perth: 5/15 – 22/76

Scottish totals to date: 7/17 – 26/87

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/3 – 8/34

Chepstow: 2/10 – 7/49

Ffos Las: 0/5 – 1/16

Welsh totals to date: 3/18 – 16/99

 

Philip Hobbs:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/2 – 1/12

Kelso: No runners – 1/4

Musselburgh: No runners – 2/5

Perth: No runners – 7/17

Scottish totals to date: 0/2 – 11/38

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/3 – 3/24

Chepstow: 3/19 – 30/144

Ffos Las: 0/4 – 7/34

Welsh totals to date: 3/26 – 40/202

 

Neil Mulholland:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/3

Kelso: No runners – 0/2

Musselburgh: No runners – 1/5

Perth: 1/1 – 1/5

Scottish totals to date: 1/1 – 2/15

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/11 – 4/38

Chepstow: 2/16 – 9/83

Ffos Las: 1/10 – 8/73

Welsh totals to date: 4/37 – 21/194

 

Peter Bowen:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 3/20

Kelso: 0/1 – 0/4

Musselburgh: No runners during the last five years

Perth: 0/1 – 9/29

Scottish totals to date: 0/2 – 12/53

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/11 – 9/51

Chepstow: 1/16 – 20/111

Ffos Las: 3/29 – 47/266

Welsh totals to date: 5/56 – 76/428

 

Charlie Longsdon:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/6

Kelso: No runners – 0/7

Musselburgh: No runners – 4/12

Perth: 1/11/3

Scottish totals to date: 1/1 – 5/28

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/7 – 13/63

Chepstow: 1/5 – 6/44

Ffos Las: 0/2 – 1/11

Welsh totals to date: 2/14 – 20/118

 

Gary Moore:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/1

Kelso: No runners during the last five years

Musselburgh: No runners during the last five years

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/1

Welsh courses:

Bangor: No runners – 0/1

Chepstow: 0/1 – 2/16

Ffos Las: 1/21/3

Welsh totals to date: 1/3 – 3/20

 

Dr Richard Newland:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 1/12/6

Kelso: No runners – 2/5

Musselburgh: No runners – 1/2

Perth: 2/44/9

Scottish totals to date: 3/59/22

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/2 – 0/16

Chepstow: 0/4 – 3/20

Ffos Las: 0/5 – 5/19

Welsh totals to date: 0/11 – 8/55

 

Kim Bailey:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/4 – 0/6

Kelso: No runners – 1/5

Musselburgh: 1/12/2

Perth: 0/2 – 4/10

Scottish totals to date: 1/7 – 7/23

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/6 – 6/44

Chepstow: 2/7 – 8/45

Ffos Las: 1/4 – 10/34

Welsh totals to date: 3/17 – 24/123

 

David Pipe:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 2/22

Kelso: No runners – 0/11

Musselburgh: No runners – 1/6

Perth: No runners – 13/24

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 16/63

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/6 – 6/41

Chepstow: 3/7 – 16/99

Ffos Las: 1/12 – 12/94

Welsh totals to date: 5/25 – 34/234

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

 

 

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