Jun 25

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 25th

Sunday’s school report:

2 MMA WINNERS at 9/2 (returned at 3/1) & 4/1 (7/2) on Sunday on what I suggested was a day to treat with caution, though placed horses helped, including those at 12/1, 10/1 & 7/1. Pontefract Placepot return of £32.36 into the bargain + 75/1 (Richard Fahey) Pontefract double via stat attack.

The World Cup becomes really interesting now and I have comprehensive coverage today of all 16 matches left in the group stages between now and Thursday + best prices relating to the Outright winner and for Groups ‘G’ & ‘H’.

Don’t forget, we have lost the 1.00 & 4.00 kick off times now, with two games at 3.00 & 7.00 simultaneously in each of the next four days.

 

APPROXIMATE MONDAY TIMELINE:

4.15: WORLD CUP – COMPREHENSIVE COVERAGE – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.00: MAL’S WINDSOR ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.10: MONDAY STAT ATTACKS  – DONE

7.20: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 5 ADDITIONS

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

WINDSOR:

7.10: Bella Ferrari – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.10: Desert Path – 9/2 (Betbright)

8.40: Starlight Mystery – 9/1 (365/BetBright/BetVictor)

9.10: Kanoon – 15/8 (Betfair/PP/Unibet/BetVictor)

Additional Windsor entries at 8.00:

6.10: Glamorous Rocket – 9/1 (Betway/BetBright)

7.40: Music Society – 8/1 (BetBright)

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

4.15: David’s Phoebe – 13/2 (Hills/Sunbets)

4.45: Emmas Dilemma – 11/2 (365/BetVictor)

5.15: Duffy’s Allen – 13/2 (Betfair)

5.45: Craigmor – 7/2 (Generally available)

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

2.45: North west Wind – 14/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Myroundorurs – 12/1 (Boyle)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

6.20: Billy Booth – 4/1 (PP)

7.20: Montague – 9/4 (365)

8.20: Poppy Love – 10/1 (Coral)

8.50: Scrutiny – 9/1 (Sunbets)

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.00:

 

CHEPSTOW:

4.30: Demon D’Aunou – 7/1 (Generally available)

5.00: Harbour Pilot – 8/1 (Coral)

Additional Chepstow entry at 8.00:

4/.00: Aquadabra – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACKS:

WINDSOR:

71 races – 32 winning favourite – 67/71 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Windsor this season:

4/9—Mark Johnston (7/1, 2/1*, 2/1** & 5/4*) – 2 runners Firlinfeu (8.10) & Starlight Mystery (8.40)

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

35 races – 14 winning favourite – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Southwell this season:

9/21—Dan Skelton (Prices ranging between 8/1 & 6/4*) – 4 runners: Inch Rise (2.45), Free Stone Hill (3.15), Simply Lucky (4.45) & Welcome Polly (5.15)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Lasest Wolverhampton findings

60 races – 22 winning favourite – 55/60 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Wolverhampton during the study period:

3 winners—Gay Kelleway (25/1, 8/1 & 9/4**) – 3 runners: Vettori Tules (5.50), Billy Booth (6.20) & Global Winder (7.50)

 

CHEPSTOW:

35 races – 9 winning favourite – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Chepstow this season:

4/12—Ed De Giles (9/1, 9/1, 5/1 & 9/2) – 1 runner: Classified (2.30)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

6.40 Windsor:

Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.

Tom saddles Storm Shelter this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between Swiper and Glory who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year.

It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

6.50 Wolverhampton:

Far from being a strong race, Blame Roberta is the call given that trainer Robert Cowell was sweet on his April foal earlier in the year and the form of the Yarmouth race is reasonable, considering that Joe Fanning’s mount was beaten less than four lengths.  Luke Morris takes over in the plate today.

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE (COVERS THE NEXT FOUR DAYS – UPDATES OFFERED TOMORROW):

TODAY’S MATCHES:

EGYPT V SAUDI – 3pm kick off

10/11—Egypt (Betway/Betfair)

68/25—Draw (Marathon)

5/1—Saudi Arabia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

31/20—Egypt (Ladbrokes & Coral)

23/20—Draw (Betfred)

9/2–Saudi Arabia (188)

Both teams to score:

19/20 (YES) – (Generally available)

19/20 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

4/5–under 2.5 goals (Sunbers & 188)

36/25–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

3/10–under 3.5 goals (Betway)

17/5–3.5 goals or more (Marathon)

 

URUGUAY V RUSSIA – 3pm kick off

9/5—Uruguay (Bet Stars)

117/50—Draw (Marathon)

119/50—Russia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

45/17—Uruguay (Unibet & 888)

28/29—Draw (188)

27/10 –Russia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

21/20 (YES) – (10Bet)

20/23 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

13/20–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

6/4–2.5 goals or more (Hills)

1/5–under 3.5 goals (Gererally available))

4/1–3.5 goals or more Unibet/888)

 

PORTUGAL V IRAN – 7pm kick off

7/10—Portugal (Betway)

14/5—Draw (365/Marathon/Unibet)

11/2—Iran (Betfair & Bet Stars)

Half time betting:

13/10—Portugal (Generally available)

13/12—Draw (Unibet/888)

63/10—Iran (188)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Hills/Sunbets/888)

13/20 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

61/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

77/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/5–under 3.5 goals (generally)

4/1–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888/Bet Stars)

 

SPAIN V MOROCCO – 7pm kick off

4/11—Spain (Generally available)

87/20—Draw (Marathon)

21/2—Morocco (Marathon & Unibet)

Half time betting:

10/11—Spain (Ladbrokes/Coral)

6/4—Draw (Betfair & Betway)

17/2—Morocco (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

23/17 (YES) – (Sportingbet)

18/25 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

11/10–under 2.5 goals (Sunbets)

20/23–2.5 goals or more (Betfair)

4/9–under 3.5 goals (Sunbets)

9/4–3.5 goals or more (365 & BetBright)

 

TUESDAY’S GAMES:

PERU V AUSTRALIA – 3pm kick off

157/100—Peru (Marathon)

2/1—Australia (Generally available)

63/25—Draw (Marathon)

FRANCE V DENMARK – 3pm kick off

13/10—France (Betfair/Unibet/Betway)

29/10—Draw (Marathon)

5/1—Denmark (Marathon)

CROATIA V ICELAND – 7pm kick off

5/4—Croatia (Betfair & Betfred)

5/2—Draw (Black Type & Betway)

133/50—Iceland (Marathon)

ARGENTINA V NIGERIA – 7pm kick off

4/7—Argentina (Skybet/Boyle/Betway)

7/2—Draw (Marathon & Betfred)

32/5—Nigeria (Marathon)

 

WEDNESDAY’S GAMES:

MEXICO V SWEDEN – 3pm kick off (Over-broke book)

23/10—Sweden (365)

23/10—Draw (Generally available)

149/50—Mexico (Marathon)

GERMANY V SOUTH KOREA – 3pm kick off

3/10—Germany (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Betfair)

33/2–South Korea (10Bet)

BRAZIL V SERBIA – 7pm kick off

11/20—Brazil (Black Type)

7/2—Draw (365 & Marathon)

33/5—Serbia (Marathon)

SWITZERLAND V COSTA RICA – 7pm kick off

89/100—Switzerland (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Betfair)

11/2–Costa Rica (Bet Type)

 

THURSDAY’S GAMES:

POLAND V JAPAN – 3pm kick off

6/4—Japan (365 & 10Bet)

113/50—Draw (Marathon)

23/10—Poland (Betway)

COLOMBIA V SENEGAL – 3pm kick off – (Over-broke book)

Evens—Colombia (Marathon)

11/4—Draw (Betway)

7/2—Senegal (Marathon & Unibet)

BELGIUM V ENGLAND – 7pm kick off

7/4—Belgium (Boylesports & Betway)

2/1—England (Black Type)

119/50—Draw (Marathon)

TUNISIA V PANAMA – 7pm kick off

19/20—Tunisia (Sportingbet)

11/4—Draw (Boyle/Betway/BetVictor)

19/5—Panama (Marathon)

 

GROUP ‘G’ – BEST PRICES AFTER YESTERDAY’S GAMES:

4/5—England (Betfair/PP)

5/4—Belgium (Betfair/PP/Unibet/Betway/888)

GROUP ‘H’ – BET PRICES AFTER YESTERDAY’S GAMES:

51/20—Senegal (Marathon)

2/1—Japan (Bet Type)

11/5—Colombia (Betfair)

 

OUTRIGHT WINNERS OF THE WORLD CUP 2018 – BEST PRICES:

19/4—Spain (Bet Stars & Sportingbet)

5/1—Brazil (Generally available)

7/1—Germany (Sunbets/Black Type/Bet Stars)

8/1—Belgium (Generally available)

17/2—France (Sportingbet)

10/1—England (Black Type)

14/1—Croatia (Generally available)

22/1—Portugal (Betfred)

25/1—Argentina (Betfair & PP)

33/1—Uruguay (Betfred & Sportingbet)

33/1—Mexico (Generally available)

40/1—Colombia (Generally available)

50/1—Russia (Betfair/188/BetVictor)

66/1—Switzerland (Skybet)

100/1—Denmark (Betfred & Sporingbet)

150/1—Bar

4 comments

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  1. Hello Malcolm , can you give me your thoughts/reason/idea behind the MMA service . i like to monitor the Price Movements on BF too , but i am not sure there is any significance to a particular time other than maybe the few minutes before the start of a race ?

  2. Hi Simon – You certainly have a point regarding real win pointers in terms of late money, though that said, I repeatedly beat the book by doing this early work which is half the tick from my b=viewpoint. As suggested before, anyone (Matt Chapman included) can inform when the prices have moved by 10.00 but the trick is, to ‘predict’ the movement in the ‘dead of night’. That’s what I try to do anyway and several winners come our way thankfully. Secondary thanks for your ‘get well’ message kind Sir….

  3. thanks again for your reply Malcolm . a horse race can be such a random event and i often wonder about the merits of following the money . i remember reading an article by Dave Renham who compiled some figures over time to suggest that it actually pays to back drifters that start off between certain prices . food for thought and i actually like to include these in my placepot because as we know the fancied horses are not good for the Ppot Divi !!

  4. Dave ‘s work is well known to tours truly Simon and his time and effort has long since been appreciated by yours truly…

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