Feb 05

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 5th

Sunday’s school report:

Our day started well enough when the second MMA runner (Culture De Sivola) scored at 10/1 when returned at 9/2.  Eight winners emerged via the in form trainer list, whilst the only named horse in Ireland won at 3/1 via the ‘ahead of the game’ service.

The main success however came when Tactical Manoeuvre won at 15/2, creating a ’41/1 double’ via my ‘Point Of Order’ offering on Friday which listed two horses for consideration over the course of the weekend, the first (Ojala) having won at 4/1 on Saturday.

Best of luck this week guys whilst just repeating the point that Tuesday’s work (which might be slightly briefer than normal) will be offered slightly earlier than usual with no following updates as we are on a 200 mile round trip to attend my Aunt’s funeral – we leave at 5.00 am.

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

NEWCASTLE (NH):

2.15: Undefined Beauty – 5/2 (BetVictor) –  NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 9/4

Additional Newcastle entries at 8.00:

2.45: Silver Tassie – 10/1 (Generally available)

3.20: Bulls Head – 11/2 (Generally available)

3.50: Brown Trix – 7/1 (Marathon)

SOUTHWELL (NH):

4.05: Lex Talionis – 6/1 (365/Betfair/PP) – NOW 5/1

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

WOLVERHAMPTON:

6.45: Indian Red – 4/1 (PP) – NOW 11/4

7.45: Samovar – 11/4 (365/Skybet/BetVictor) – NOW 9/4

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

16/57—Harry Whittington (+14) – 1 at Southwell: Bridge Of Cally (3.35)

10/33—Olly Murphy (+18) – 1 at Newcastle: Undefined Beauty (4.20)

9/35—Warren Greatrex – 1 at Wolverhampton: Great Return (6.45)

7/15—Anthony Honeywell (+9) – 1 at Southwell: Don Lami (3.00)

6/12—Rose Dobbin (+18) – 2 at Newcastle: Log On (3.50) & La Gavroche (4.20)

5/9—Robin Dickin (+4) – 2 at Southwell: Myroundorurs (2.30) & Tara Well (4.35)

4/10—Phil Kirby (+1) – 2 at Newcastle: True Bellew & Bitumen Belle (1.40)

4/14—Sue Smith (+6) – 2 at Newcastle: Smooth Stepper (2.45) & Absolutely Dylan (4.20)

4/15—John O’Shea (+37) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Louis Vee (5.15)

3/11—Mick Channon (+5) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Fitzwilliam

3/7—John Gosden (+8) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Natch (7.15)

3/7—Kevin Ryan (+8) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Al Khan (5.45)

2/3—David C Griffiths (+4) – 3 at Wolverhampton: Cyflymder (4.45), Keynote (7.15) & Elegant Joan (7.45)

19 runners via in form trainers in race order:

1.40: True Bellew & Bitumen Belle

2.15: Undefined Beauty

2.30: Myroundorurs

2.45: Smooth Stepper

3.00: Don Lami

3.35: Bridge Of Cally

3.50: Log On

4.20: Absolutely Dylan & La Gavroche

4.35: Tara Well

4.45: Cyflymder

5.15: Louis Vee

5.45: Al Khan

6.45: Fitzwilly & Great Return

7.15: Natch & Keynote

7.45: Elegant Joan

 

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

WOLVERHAMPTON:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – All 32 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £139.86

Highest dividend: £464.50 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £9.60 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period: Unfortunately the leading trainer Tony Carroll (four winners) is not represented on Monday.

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – FIRST PART OF THE WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MONDAY:

The meetings at Newcastle and Southwell are essentially new fixtures.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.45: Only one of the last seven renewals has been secured by a favourite, albeit five of the last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.  Out of interest, no horse has won from the lowest three stalls during the last eight years.

6.15: All four winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, statistics which include two winning favourites.  Five and six-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date.  Richard Fahey is the only represented trainer to have won the race before and he will be hoping that Gabrial can maintain his 100% strike rate in the contest.

TUESDAY:

There is no history to the A/W meeting at Southwell on Tuesday.

SEDGEFIELD:

20 furlong – Class 5 handicap hurdle (scheduled for 1.40): Both (3/1 & 4/7) favourites have won in facile fashion, scoring by an aggregate distance of eleven lengths.

Class 4 – 21 furlong handicap chase (scheduled for 3.15): Although all three favourites have been beaten thus far (two finished second), the biggest priced winner to date scored at 9/2.

Handicap hurdle event over 27 furlongs – Class 5 (Scheduled for 4.20): We still await the first winning favourite – top priced winner thus far: 12/1.  Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

MARKET RASEN:

Class 3 NH Novice hurdle qualifier (scheduled for 2.55): All three winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 with one favourite having won at 9/4.  Five of the seven available Placepot positions have been claimed by six-year-olds, whilst two vintage representatives have won their respective events.

20 furlong – Class 4 handicap hurdle (scheduled at 3.25): All three winners carried 11-3 or more, whilst six-year-olds have secured five of the eight available Placepot positions (two winners).

Class 4 Limited novice handicap chase (scheduled for 4.00): Eight-year-olds have won all three contests thus far.  Market leaders have won two of the three renewals, the biggest price gold medallist having been returned at 4/1.  All three winners carried 11-4 or more.

Hunter chase event (scheduled for 4.30): Both (4/6 & 4/9) favourites have scored in facile fashion, winning by an aggregate of eleven lengths.

WEDNESDAY:

LUDLOW:

Mares handicap hurdle (scheduled for 2.40): Six-year-olds have won three of the four contests.

20 furlong – Class 3 handicap chase (scheduled for 3.15): Three winning favourites have been recorded via six renewals since 2008.  Six-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the contest.

Class 4 maiden hurdle (scheduled for 4.45): Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals.  Five years have slipped by since a winning market leader was recorded, though five of the six winners have scored at a top price of just 7/2.

CARLISLE:

17 furlong – novice hurdle (scheduled for 1.50): Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst all five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 5/1 (two winning favourites).  Micky Hammond has Cornerstone Lad entered up, having won two recent renewals.

Three mile novice handicap chase at Class 4 level (scheduled for 2.20): Four of the last five winners have scored at 16/1, 14/1 & 12/1 (twice).  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, whilst five of the last six have carried a minimum weight of 11-2.

Novice hurdle event for mares – 19 furlongs (scheduled for 2.55): Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals. Donald McCain has saddled two recent winners and the trainer holds one entry this time around, namely Banrion Scairp.

Class 4 two mile novice limited handicap chase (scheduled for 3.25): Favourites have won all three races to date.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Class 5 – 14 furlong handicap (scheduled for 5.25): Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst 5/6 have carried nine stones or more.  The last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Seven furlong handicap at Class 3 level (scheduled for 6.25): – All four winners have won at a top price of 3/1 – including two winning favourites.  Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four contests.

Class 6 – five furlong handicap (scheduled for 7.55): Four-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests, whilst the last four gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-4.  Market leaders have secured four of the eight renewals.

FAKENHAM is essentially a new meeting, whilst there is no history to the meeting at CHELMSFORD.

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

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