My daily stats will appear in my Sporting Life column (except on Monday when the work will be shown here) between now until the end of Cheltenham Festival week for which the local weather forecast is for minimal rain during the next ten days, with no sign of frosts on the horizon.
Hoping to have one for you in one of the tricky handicap contests on Tuesday at Cheltenham – watch this space for news of the potential 20/1 chance…
Additional stats for Saturday (hoping you were on the four short priced winners for Nick Alexander & Lucinda Russell yesterday!):
I have some big priced horses highlighted for you in my Sporting Life column which should be available by 9.30 (hopefully) via the link on my Twitter page – or just go to sportinglife.com later this morning and the link should be on the front page of the racing section.
They include a 14/1 chance who is the trainer’s only runner at the track today having saddled six winners at the corresponding meeting in as many years (top trainer there during the study period).
Paul Nicholls is well clear of his rivals at the corresponding Sandown meeting in recent times – full details via the link later this morning,
One of today’s trainers boasts stats of 5/10 (8 LSP) at the relevant track this term – two decent priced runners today, whilst one Newmarket trained runner at Wolverhampton stands out from the crowd at an each way price relating to today’s pair of all weather cards.
Percentage returns at today’s venues during the relevant study periods for favourites against the number of races contested:
Ayr: 46.8% (12 meetings)
Hereford: 42.6% (8 meetings)
Sandown: 36.2% (7 meetings)
Chelmsford: 32.5% (6 meetings since February 1st)
Wolverhampton: 30.8% (11 meetings since February 1st)
On this day last year: 28 races – 31 favourites – 8 winners – Odds on ratio: 2/5
The biggest priced winner at Ayr was returned at just 11/2 – albeit only one favourite obliged
Five of the seven winners at Sandown last year were sent off at a top price of 5/1, whilst the other two gold medallists were anything but no-hopers at 9/1 & 14/1
Readers of my Twitter page were alerted towards this column today relating to next Friday’s renewal of the ‘Albert Bartlett’ for the following reason:
Races come and go at the Festival and trends emerge but one of the disappointing aspects of last year’s results were the Placepot dividends – until Friday that is. Even then, the £1,680.90 dividend only resulted via two races which turned the apple-cart upside down.
The closing ‘Martin Pipe’ event is a typical handicap event that can produce results to inflate any dividend, though it was the ‘Albert Bartlett’ result that really changed the course of Placepot dividends on the week.
Just 6.3% of the units there were ‘live’ going into the race survived the contest. The starting prices were as follows: 11/1 – 33/1 – 20/1. That’s all it takes sometimes.
Speculative investors foolishly look for outsiders to finish in the frame in every race but that does not necessarily have to happy to produce a great return.
Be lucky but as always – be aware!
The following message will be on show until next week for ‘new’ readers to digest:
MESSAGE RELATING TO THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL NEXT WEEK:
There are lots of stats being punted around these days but without boosting my own over-inflated ago further, it was yours truly that started revealing the facts that matter seventeen years ago when starting my daily column for the Sporting Life which ran for over 15 years,
Although I only offer three days of work for the ‘Life’ these days, I have long since been the only surviving freelance writer for them going back to the start of the Millenium.
Three years later I was the first person (and still am as far as I know) who had their stats published in a four page centre-fold in the Festival programme each day, nothwithstanding working for the Channel 4 Cheltenham Festival team the following year.
Websites come and go alongside their respective ‘experts’ but if you want to read the thoughts and stats of the person that has negotiated ‘ all the fences’ safely for the thick end of 20 years – you know where to come next week – my Twitter pages will have directions to all the details you really need, with all due respect to other columnists out there in the jungle.
Best of luck today and particularly – next week.