Apr 14

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 14th

GRAND NATIONAL DAY!

 

APPROXIMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

5.00: MAL’S AINTREE ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

6.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.15: GRAND NATIONAL DAY STATS – DONE

7.30: MORE GRAND NATIONAL DETAILS + ARE YOU BETTING ON THE TOTE TODAY? – DONE

8.15: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE

9.00: ANY OTHER BUSINESS – DONE

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

AINTREE:

1.45: Dream Berry – 15/2 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor/BetBright/Betstars)

3.00: Deigo Du Charmil – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.20: L’Ami Serge – 16/1 (PP)

GRAND NATIONAL (5.15) – THREE AGAINST THE FIELD:

Blaklion – 14/1 (Betfair/Sportingbet), Regal Encore – 33/1 (365) & Pleasant Company – 33/1 (Generally available)

Additional Aintree entries at 8.30:

2.25: Lostintranslation – 16/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

3.40: Bells Of Ailsworth – 12/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Unibet/Coral/BetVictor)

6.15: William Of Orange – 11/1 – (Betfair/PP)

 

CHEPSTOW:

2.15: Grays Choice – 13/2 (Betfair)

4.05: A Vos Garde – 8/1 (365/Sunbets/Unibet/BetVictor)

Additional Chepstow entries at 8.30:

2.50: Nickname Exit – 12/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Grams And Ounces – 11/1 (365/BetVictor)

5.35: The Boss’es Dream – 7/1 (365/Sportingbet/BetVictor)

6.05: Flying Away – 25/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes)

 

NEWCASTLE (NH):

2.05: Ascot De Brueyre – 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

3.55: Trixster – 8/1 (Skybet/Hills/Marathon/Ladbrokes/Coral)

4.30: Rhymers Stone – 14/1 (365)

5.45: Dollys Dot – 7/1 (Generally available)

Additional Newcastle entries at 8.30:

2.40: Mayze Bell – 10/1 (Generally Available)

3.20: Pain Au Choclat – 4/1 (Generally available)

 

LINGFIELD:

1.55: Good Business – 7/1 (365)

2.30: Salute The Soldier – 11/2 (365)

3.35: Pearl Spectre – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

4.15: Highcastle – 4/1 (365)

4.50: Blame Culture – 12/1 (PP)

5.40: Oceanus – 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Lingfield entry at 8.30:

3.05: Miss Minuty – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

6.00: Whitehall – 13/2 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

6.30: Air Ministry – 15/2 (Skybet/BetVictor)

9.00: Logi – 10/1 (Generally)

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 8.30:

7.30: Polished (14/1 (365/Hills)

8.30: Mister Manjuro – 11/1 (365)

 

AINTREE STATS – GRAND NATIONAL DAY

Winning trainer stats from the first two days with runners today:

5/17—Nicky Henderson (5/1, 3/1*, 2/1, 6/4* & 4/5*) – 4 runners today

2/12—Colin Tizzard (14/1 & 5/2) – 4 runners today

1/2—Warren Gretrex (25/1) – 3 runners today

1/3—Tom Lacey (20/1) – 1 runner today

1/3—Charlie Longsdon (10/1) – 2 runners today

1/14—Paul Nicholls (11/1) – 6 runners today

Leading trainers at the Grand National meeting during the last seven years:

30 winners—Nicky Henderson – 4 runners today

15 winners—Paul Nicholls – 6 runners today

Seven year trends relating to the SATURDAY of the Festival:

Leading trainer:

9 winners—Nicky Henderson – 4 runners today

Trainers who achieved doubles or more on the last day of the meeting during the last seven years:

2017—Colin Tizzard (43/1 double)

2016—Willie Mullins (24/1 treble)

2012—Nicky Henderson (154/1 four timer)

2011—Nicky Henderson (52/1 treble)

Average (Saturday) Placepot dividend (2011 – 2017 inclusive): £833.24

46 favourites in Placepot races – 13 winners – 12 placed – 21 unplaced

Highest dividend: £2,277.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced in 2013

Lowest dividend: £132.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced in 2012

 

MORE GRAND NATIONAL DETAILS YOU NEED TO KNOW…

Betting on the age of the winner? Nine and ten-year-olds have long since dominated the big race with the older brigade tending to have the edge. That said, eleven-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests. The previous seven results had gone the way of the nine and ten-year-olds.

Last 32 Grand National winning ages include:

  • 9-y-o (9 winners)West Tip (1986), Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (1988), Lord Gyllene (1997), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Hedgehunter (2005), Comply Or Die (2008), Mon Mome (2009) & Rule The World (2016)
  • 10-y-o (8 winners)Hallo Dandy (1984), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Monty’s Pass (2003), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Don’t Push It (2010), Ballabriggs (2011)
  • 11-y-o (8 winners)Maori Venture (1987), Mr Frisk (1990), Seagram (1991), Miinnehoma (1994), Red Marauder (2001), NeptunSaturdaye Collonges (2012), Auroras Encore (2013), Pineau De Re (2014). 12-y-o (3 winners) Little Polvier (1989), Royal Athlete (1995), Amberleigh House (2004)

Betting on how many horses will finish the Grand National course? Number of finishers during the last fourteen years (and where the favourites finished in brackets):
2017: 19 of the 40 horses completed the course with the 8/1 favourite rewarding each way investors by finishing fourth
2016: 16 horses the completed the course on soft ground (one of the two 8/1 joint favourites finished second, the other finished last of the 16 finishers)

2015: 19 completed the course on good to soft ground (6/1 favourite finished 5th)
2014: 18 completed the course on good to soft ground (good in places) – 2 x 10/1 joint favourites: 3rd & unseated rider)
2013: 17 completed the course on good to soft ground (11/2 favourite finished 13th)
2012: 15 finishers on good ground (8/1 joint favourites finished third and ninth)
2011: 19 finishers on good ground (15/2 favourite finished 6th)
2010: 14 completed the course under good conditions (10/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 4th)
2009: 17 finishers on good to soft ground (7/1 favourite finished seventh)
2008: 15 completed the course on good ground (7/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 6th)
2007: 12 finished on good ground (all three 8/1 co favourites failed to complete the course)
2006: Only nine horses finished on good to soft going (the two 5/1 joint favourites finished 2nd & 3rd)
2005: 21 horses finished the course on good ground (the 7/1 favourite duly obliged)
2004: 11 runners completed (4 x 10/1 co favourites: one finished 2nd–the other three failed to finish the course)

Total number of favourites during the study period: 24 (three winners–seven placed–seven unplaced, with seven failing to complete the course)

SP V TOTE – THERE IS ONLY ONE WINNER – 80% OF THE TIME IN RECENT YEARS ANYWAY!

In terms of backing the Grand National winner (should you be so fortunate) have a few quid on the tote at least, given the following facts.

The Tote has paid considerably more than the starting prices in eight of the last ten years, even when Tony McCoy rode his one and only National winner in 2010 (Don’t Push It).  Only marginal ‘losses’ in 2017 & 2011 prevented a clean sweep against the bookmakers starting prices, with some returns ‘dwarfing’ the SP’s.

Indeed, the tote holds a 49.3% surplus to level stakes during the period over and above the starting prices.

2017: 14/1 winner – Tote paid £14.70

2016: 33/1 winner – Tote paid £44.50

2015: 25/1 winner – Tote paid £32.90

2014: 25/1 winner – Tote paid £32.80

2013: 66/1 winner – Tote paid £133.00

2012: 33/1 winner – Tote paid £47.80

2011: 14/1 winner – Tote paid £14.50

2010: 10/1 winner for Tony McCoy – Tote paid £15.70

2009: 100/1 winner – Tote paid 158.40

2008: 7/1 winner – Tote paid 8.90

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Why would I desert Lucinda Russell after last year’s Grand National winner for me/us?):

15/30—Charlie Appleby (+22) – 1 at Lingfield: Dream Warrior (4.50)

8/15—Venetia Williams (+35) – 5 runners: Shivermetimbers (3.30 Chepstow), Houblon Des Obeaux & Tenor Nivernais (5.15 Aintree) & Reynard & Waldorf Salad (5.35 Chepstow)

8/17—Micky Hammond (+46) – 2 at Newcastle: Applaus (4.50) & Dedigout (5.40)

6/18—Nicky Henderson (+2) – 4 at Aintree: Fixe Le Cap (1.45), On The Blind Side (2.25) & L’Ami Serge & Thomas Campbell (4.20)

6/18—Ian Williams (+22) – 2 at Aintree: Gas Line Boy (5.15) & Michael’s Mount (6.20)

5/12—John Gosden (+2) – 3 today: West Wing & Hinde Street (4.50 Lingfield) & Tivoli (8.00 Wolverhampton)

5/12—Saeed Bin Suroor (+9) – 2 chances: Silent Attack (3.35 Lingfield) & Ocean Of Love (8.30 Wolverhampton)

4/5—Tony Carroll (+25) – 2 runners: Havana Beat (6.20 Aintree) & Nouvelle Ere (6.30 Wolverhampton)

4/5—Charlie Hills (+28) – 1 at Lingfield: Definition (4.50)

4/5—Matt Sheppard (+13) – 2 at Chepstow: Modeligo (2.50) & Reputational Risk (6.05)

4/7—Tom Dascombe (+20) – 3 at Wolverhampton: Admiral Spice (6.00) & Polished & Sesame (7.30)

4/11—Alistair Ralph (+8) – 2 chances: Billingsley (3.30 Chepstow) & Broughtons Admiral (6.20 Aintree)

3/5—Ralph Beckett (+12) – 2 at Lingfield: Mesquite (2.30) & Glories (4.50)

3/6—Michael Appleby (+5) – 3 at Wolverhampton: Stapleford (8.00) & Juan Horsepower & Pulsating (9.00)

3/7—Warren Greatrex (+28) – 3 at Aintree: Brianstorm & Western Ryder (2.25) & Final Choice (6.20)

3/7—Lucinda Russell (+7) – 4 at Newcastle: Rivabodiva (2.40), Grand Morning (3.55), Ballycool (5.00) & Arizona Bound (5.45)

2/3—Conrad Allen (+4) – 1 at Lingfield: Sonnet Rose (1.55)

2/3—David Evans (+3) – 6 on Saturday – 2 at Lingfield: The Establishment (2.30) & Sea Fox (3.35) + 4 in the 7.30 at Wolverhampton: Kg Courage, Frisky Dancer, Kg Passion & Go Annie Go

2/3—Phil McEntee (+21) – 2 at Lingfield: Emily Goldfinch (1.55) & Pearl Spectre (3.35)

2/3—Kayley Woollacott (+15) – 1 at Chepstow: Millanisi Boy (4.05)

2/4—James Ewart (+1) – 4 at Newcastle: Ascot Du Bruyere (2.05), Un Gent Apens (3.20), Sky Full Of Stara (5.00) & Ange Des Malberaux (5.45)

2/4—John Mackie (+1) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Polyphony (8.00)

2/4—Suzy Smith (+1) – 1 at Aintree: Clondaw Clan (3.4)

57 runners – listed in race order:

1.45: Fixe le Cap

1.55: Sonnet Rose & Emily Goldfinch

2.05: Ascot Du Brueyre

2.25: On The Blind Side, Brianstorm & Western Ryder

2.30: The Establishment & Mesquite

2.40: Rivabodiva

2.50: Modeligo

3.20: Un Gent Apens

3.30: Billingsley & Shivermetimbers

3.35: Silent Attack, Pearl Spectre & Sea Fox

3.40: Clondaw Clan

3.55: Grand Morning

4.05: Millanisi Boy

4.20: L’Ami Serge & Thomas Campbell

4.30: Applaus

4.50: Dream Warrior, Glories, West Wing, Hinde Street & Definition

5.00: Sky Full Of Stars & Ballycool

5.15–Grand National: Houblon Des Obeaux, Gas Line Boy & Tenor Nivernais

5.35: Reynard & Waldorf Salad

5.40: Dedigout

5.45: Ange Des Malberaux & Arizona Bound

6.00: Admiral Spice

6.05: Reputational Risk

6.20: Broughtons Admiral, Final Choice, Michael’s Mount & Havana Beat

6.30: Nouvelle Ere

7.30: Polished, Kg Courage, Frisky Dancer, Kg Passion, Go Annie Go & Sesame

8.00: Stapleford, Tivoli & Polyphony

8.30: Ocean Of Love

9.00: Juan Horsepower & Pulsating

 

ANY OTHER BUSINESS:

Just a reminder that Knockabout Queen runs for Mick Channon in the 7.30 at Wolverhampton tonight.

Mick has scored with three of his four juvenile runners thus far, albeit one inmate was responsible for two of those victories.  Knockabout Queen is easy to back at the time of writing in and around 13/2.

It will be interesting to see if there are any moves later this morning but in the meantime, I have had a saver on Polished at 14/1 with William Hill.  Trainer Tom Dascombe has saddled four of his last seven runners to winning effect and I doubt the 14/1 will last long when the offices open.

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

 

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