Feb 17

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 17th

First thing to note on Saturday was the ‘Ahead of the Game’ offering yesterday relating to today’s racing.

You will find the reasoning behind offering Deeds Not Words (6.45 at Kempton tonight) as a half decent each way nomination, given that Michael Wigham’s raider is still on offer at 20/1 with Bet365, Marathon, Betfred & Tote.  Interestingly, no individual was offering more than ‘12’ on Betfair at 1.30 this morning.

NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 11/1 – AS SHORT AS 9/1 WITH TWO FIRMS

Deeds Not Words is worth a saver early doors, just as insurance (at least) if things have not gone your way during the afternoon – that’s all, pure and simple.

If you want to check out best prices and stats for the lunchtime F.A. Cup game between Sheffield Wednesday/Swansea (12.30 – BT Sport) you will find the work at the foot of today’s column – it’s already there!

Although there are only two  meetings in the UK tomorrow, I will offer what stats I can dig up for Navan (Ireland), as well as offering horse racing and football stats for you to peruse on a quiet day.

Very best of luck today.

 

Friday’s school report:

Four MMA winners at 12/1 (SP: 9/2) – 9/1 (9/2) – 11/2 (5/1) – 5/1 (9/2) lit up the day whilst there were also some good results from the in form trainer sector again.

A 32/1 double for Ed Walker from his only two runners on the day took the honours, whilst Anthony Honeyball scored with his only runner (again) at 4/1. Mick Appleby scored with an NH winner at 9/2 whilst there were short priced winners for David Dennis and John Gosden.

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES NOW UPDATED + 6 ADDITIONS:

ASCOT:

1.15: Point Of Principle – 12/1 – Hills/Betfred/Tote/Stan James) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 10/1

3.00: Fixe Le Cap – 15/2 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 13/2

3.35: Coney Island – 4/1 (Hills/Stan James) – NOW 7/2

4.10: Templeross – 11/2 (365/Betvictor) – NOW 9/2

Additional Ascot entry at 8.00:

4.45: Lust For Glory – 5/6 (Sportingbet)

 

HAYDOCK:

1.30: Turning Gold – 17/2 (Stan James) – NOW 7/1

2.05: No Hassle Hoff – 16/1 (Hills/Boyle) – NOW 14/1

2.40: Crievehill – 11/4 (Hills/Unibet/888) – NOW 9/4

3.15: Silsol – 12/1 (365) – NOW 11/1

3.50: Splash Of Ginge – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Stan James) – NOW 12/1

4.25: Golan Fortune – 6/1 (Stan James) – NOW 9/2

5.00: Shotavodka – 8/1 (Stan James) – NOW 6/1

Additional Haydock entries at 8.00:

 

WINCANTON:

2.15: War Sound – 5/2 (Skybet/Betfred/Tote/Betfair/PP) – NOW 2/1

3.20: Shannan Star – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tite) – NOW 7/1

3.55: Fortunate George – 6/1 (Betfair/Stan James) – NOW 9/2

Additional Wincanton entry at 8.00:

2.45: Elgin – 11/2 (PP/Betfair)

 

LINGFIELD (A/W):

12.40: Sir Jamie – 7/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 6/1

1.10: Cloud Nine – 20/1 (365) – NOW 16/1

2.55: Man Of Harlech -16/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 12/1

4.40: Genuinely Crowded – 12/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 10/1

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

2.20: Brother Tiger – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.30: Kasbah – 13/2 (Betbright)

4.40: Father Alibe – 6/1 (Hills)

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

5.45: Vodka Pigeon – 8/1 (PP) – NOW 6/1

6.45: Words Not Deeds – 20/1 (Betfred/Tote) – The 20/1 mentioned earlier in dispatches with 365 & Marathon has disappeared, now 14/1 & 12/1 respectively – NOW 11/1 – AS SHORT AS 9/1 IN TWO PLACES

Additional Kempton entry at 8.00:

7.15: Lady Perignon – 8/1 (Sportingbet)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

9/21—Anthony Honeyball (+14) – 2 at Ascot: Ms Parfois (1.50) & Regal Encore (2.25)

7/20—Rose Dobbin (+13) – 1 at Haydock: Coole Hall (4.25)

7/20—David Elsworth (+20) – 2 chances: Ay Ay (2.55 Lingfield) & Galloway Hills (6.15 Kempton)

6/14—Fergal O’Brien (+6) – 2 chances: Global Stage (4.25 Haydock) & Red Hot Chilly (7.45 Kempton)

6/16—Saeed Bin Suroor (+4) – 6 at Meydan: Steady Pace (2.30), Dubai One (4.15), Promising Run (4.50), Mountain Hunter (5.25) & Silver Line & Top Score (6.00)

6/17—Colin Tizzard – 7 today: Ruby Russet (1.40 Wincanton), The Dutchman (3.15 Haydock), Cue Card (3.35 Ascot), Watcombe Heights (3.55 Wincanton), Silverhow (4.30 Wincanton), My Lady Gray (4.45 Ascot), Sparky’s Spirit (5.05 Wincanton)

6/20—Kevin Ryan (+71) – 1 at Lingfield: Nautical Haven (3.30)

3/4–David Dennis (+10) – 1 at Wincanton: Neetside (1.40)

3/4—Charlie Longsdon (+10) – 3 chances: A Vos Gardes (2.40 Haydock), Vivas (3.00 Ascot) & Just Your Type (4.25 Haydock)

3/5—Ed Dunlop (+8) – 1 at Lingfield: Global Angel (4.40)

3/5—David Pipe (+2) – 5 runners: Warthog (1.15 Ascot), Timeforben (1.40 Wincanton), Vieux Lion Rouge (2.25 Ascot), Friday Night Live (3.00 Ascot) & Three Star General (4.10 Ascot)

3/8—Warren Greatrex (+6) – 3 today: Boite (2.05 Haydock), Shantou Bob (3.50 Haydock) & Savoy Court (3.55 Wincanton)

3/8—Donald McCain – 1 at Haydock: Uppertown Prince (4.25)

3/9—Michael Bell – 1 at Lingfield: Guardiola (1.45)

3/9—Laura Mongan (+20) – 1 at Kempton: Taqwaa (7.45)

Last two runners have won—Andrew Balding (+2) – 3 runners: Make Music (3.30 Lingfield), Seasearch (4.40 Lingielf) & Lady Perigon (7.15 Kempton)

Last two runners have two—Robert Cowell (+4) – 1 at Lingfield: Nomorecalls (4.05)

2/3—Tom Dascombe (+1) – 1 at Lingfield: Reflektor (3.30 Lingfield)

2/3—Olly Murphy – 2 at Haydock: Swaffham Bulbeck (1.30) & Piri Massini (4.25)

2/3—Archie Watson (+8) – 6 runners: De Medici (1.45 Lingfield), Captain Lars (2.20 Lingfield), Poetic Imagination (4.05 Lingfield), Absolute Blast (4.50 Meydan), Black Sails (6.15 Kempton) & Pulsating (6.45 Kempton)

2/4—Clive Cox (+2) – 2 runners: Perfect Refuge (1.45 Lingfield) & Superego (6.15 Kempton)

2/4—Micky Hammond (+31) – 1 at Haydock: Cornerstone Lad (1.30)

2/4—Dr Richard Newland (+6) – 2 today: Beau Bay (2.15 Wincanton) & Le Patriote (3.00 Ascot)

54 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

1.15: Warthog

1.30: Cornerstone Lad

1.40: Timeforben, Ruby Russet & Neetside

1.45: Perfect Refuge, De Medici & Guardiola

1.50: Ms Parfois

2.05: Boite

2.15: Beau Bay

2.20: Captain Lars

2.25: Regal Encore & Vieux Lion Rouge

2.30: Steady Pace

2.40: A Vos Gardes

2.55: Ay Ay

3.00: Vivas, Le Patriote & Friday Night Live

3.15: The Dutchman

3.30: Reflektor, Make Music & Nautical Haven

3.35: Cue Card

3.50: Shantou Bob

3.55: Savoy Court & Watcombe Heights

4.05: Nomorecalls & Poetic Imagination

4.10: Three Star General

4.15: Dubai One

4.25: Just Your Type, Uppertown Prince, Global Stage, Piri Massini & Coole Hill

4.30: Silverhaow

4.40: Seasearch & Global Angel

4.45: My Lady Gray

4.50: Promising Run & Absolute Blast

5.05: Sparky’s Spirit

5.25: Mountain Hunter

6.00: Silver Line & Top Score

6.15: Galloway Hills, Black Sails & Superego

6.45: Pulsating

7.15: Lady Perignon

7.45: Taqwaa & Red Hot Chilly

 

SATURDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

ASCOT:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £190.92

Highest dividend: £367.20 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £76.00 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Paul Nicholls (5/2, 2/1* & 8/13* twice) – 3 runners today: Captain Cattistock (1.15), Black Corton (1.50) & Frodon (3.35)

4 winners—David Pipe (6/1, 11/4*, 4/6* & 40/85*) – 4 runners today: Warthog (1.15), Vieux Lion Rouge (2.25), Friday Night Live (3.00) & Three Star General (4.10)

 

HAYDOCK:

35 races – 8 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of /1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,120.06

Highest dividend: £3,929.70 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £57.10 (2013)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Paul Nicholls (4/1, 9/4 & 4/6*) – 3 runners today: Zarkandar (2.05), Silsol (3.15) & Virak (5.00)

 

WINCANTON:

35 races – 15 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £109.42

Highest dividend: £400.00 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £12.40 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

10 winners—Paul Nicholls (winners ranging between 17/2 & 1/3*) – 2 runners today: Cliffs Of Dover (2.45) & Sao (5.05)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SATURDAY:

ASCOT:

1.15: Nine of the last ten winners scored at 3/1 or less, stats which include five winning favourites.  All ten winners won at a top price of 7/1.

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of the ‘Reynoldstown’.

3.00: Six-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, whilst nine of the last ten gold medallists carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

3.35: The biggest priced winner scored at 11/2 during the last decade, whilst favourites have won six of the last renewals.

HAYDOCK:

1.30: Eight of the last ten winners scored at a top price of 4/1 during which time, six market leaders prevailed.

4.25: Six-year-olds have won nine of the last ten contests.

WINCANTON:

1.40: Course winner Mighty Missile is the only seven-year-old in the field, vintage representatives having won five of the last nine renewals.

2.45: Horses returned at 10/3 or less have won the last nine contests, stats which include five successful market leaders.

3.55: Interesting that Paul Nicholls has saddled the last five winners of this contest, albeit that his only midweek entry (Captain Cattistock) now runs at Ascot on Saturday.

4.30: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst the last five winners have scored at a top price of 10/3.

5.05: Eight of the last ten winners scored at a top price of 7/2 but mind where you tread as the other pair were returned at 66/1 and 40/1!.

LINGFIELD

2.20: All 31 runners during the last eleven years which have carried less than nine stones have been beaten! Four of the nine entries are potentially eliminated (includes one via a claiming jockey). 

KEMPTON:

5.45: All 29 runners carrying less than 9-7 have been beaten during the last four years, potentially eliminating five of the eight runners.

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SUNDAY:

MARKET RASEN:

4.50: We still await the first winning favourite following six renewals of the only race in the card with any depth in terms of history.  Five of the six winners scored at a top price of 9/1.

FFOS LAS:

4.10: Peter Bowen has saddled the last two winners (of three in total) of this event to date, with Alf ‘N’ Dor being the vintage representative on this occasion.  That said, all three winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-6 with Alf ‘N’ Dor only set to carry 10-4 if James Bowen can call on all three pounds of his claim.  All three winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, stats which include two successful market leaders.

5.10: Mickey Bowen (Wells De Lune) is the only trainer represented to have saddled a winner in the contest thus far.  Unusually, only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via seven renewals, albeit six of the seven gold medallists were returned at 9/1 or less.

Peter Bowen secured a 41/1 double on the corresponding Ffos Las card last year, with four declaration made this time around, namely Lord Bryan (3.05), Princess Roania (3.35), Alf ‘N’ Dor (4.10) & Hilary View (4.40)

 

F.A. Cup Special – 12.30 Live on BT Sport 2 – Sheffield Wednesday v Swansea

Stats: The only F.A. Cup match between these two teams was played at today’s venue when Sheffield Wednesday beat Swansea 1-0 back in 1962.

Indeed, Swansea have never won at Hillsborough as this league record shows.

Played 13: Wednesday: 6 wins – Drawn games: 7 – Goal Difference: 24-8

Sheffield Wednesday victories:

2 x 3-0

1 x 2-0

1 x 2-1

1 x 3-1

1 x 6-1

Drawn games: 3 x 0-0 – 3 x 1-1 – 1 x 2-2

Best odds for today’s Game:

5/2 Sheffield Wednesday (365 & Betfred)

12/5 The Draw (BetVictor)

13/10 Swansea (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Speculative Half Time/Full Time betting:

Wednesday/Wednesday: 21/4 (Stan James)

Wednesday/Draw: 16/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

Wednesday/Swansea: 30/1 (Marathon/Sportingbet/188)

Draw/Wednesday: 15/2 (Marathon)

Draw/Draw: 43/10 (Marathon)

Draw/Swansea: 24/5 (Marathon)

Swansea/Wednesday: 40/1 (Generally available)

Swansea/Draw: 16/1 (Skybet)

Swansea/Swansea: 11/4 (Hills/Boyle/Stan James)

Be lucky but as ever, be aware!

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