Apr 21

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 21st

Friday’s school report:

We rediscovered some of our old form yesterday with winners at 14/1 (returned at 8/1), 11/2 (7/2) & 85/40 (7/4), whilst other horses were backed in from 22/1 to 11/2 alongside a runner up who started at 5/1, having been offered at 16/1 in the dead of night as the majority of media commentators were still snoozing in their beds.

The top two in form trainers in my list yesterday scored with their only runners on the day at 9/2 & 7/2 to further improve their aggregate recent ratio to 34/84 (40% strike rate – level stake profit of 51 points).

Let’s hope for more of the same with a busy schedule ahead of us today.  If we come up short of the mark – it will not be for want of trying.

*POINT OF ORDER: This notice relates to the weather in this part of the world (Bristol), especially given the overnight “good to soft” quote at Newbury.  Thunderstorms have been forecast to break out in certain areas at any time of the day, whereby you should keep an eye out on the weather front to see how much (if any) rain has fallen at Newbury.  This is especially of interest, given that nearly all the course winners (listed after each race) require some cut in the ground.  If the ground dried up as much as it has done these last few days, connections might withdraw their runners and we know what an effect on the Placepot that scenario can have!  I will update weather in Bristol on my Twitter page leading up to flag fall in the opening event at 1.25.

APPROXIMMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: SATURDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

6.15: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.30: MAL’S NEWBURY ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.45: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

9.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 11 ADDITIONS (EVERY HORSE BACKED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING!)

9.30: FOOTBALL SERVICE – DONE – HAVE A GREAT DAY!

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 9.00 with additions if/where relevant.

NEWBURY:

2.00: Danehill Kodiac – 8/1 (Generally available)

3.10: Connect – 16/1 (BetBright)

3.45: Taqdeer – 10/1 (Generally available)

4.55: Jeremiah – 16/1 (Generally available)

Additional Newbury entries at 9.00:

4.20: Jack Crow – 5/1 (Generally available)

5.30: Rake’s Progress – 14/1 (Sportingbet)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

4.35: Coiste Bodhar – 20/1 (PP)

5.10: Tizwotitiz – 12/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

6.15: Poets Pride – 8/1 (PP)

6.45: On To Victory – 13/2 (365)

7.45: Machree – 5/1 (365/Sunbets/Bet Victor)

Additional Nottingham entry at 9.00:

5.40: Jamih – 25/1 (Sportingbet)

 

THIRSK:

2.30: Cliff – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.25: Airglow – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.55: Hadley – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Thirsk entries at 9.00:

3.05: Firmament – 7/2 (Coral)

3.40: John Kirkup – 10/1 (365)

4.15: Bolder Bob – 11/1 (365)

 

AYR:

2.20: Barney Dwan – 6/1 (365/Hills)

2.55: Flying Tiger – 11/1 (Betfair)

3.30: Cobra De Mai – 12/1 (Generally available)

4.05: Doing Fine – 11/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Moon Racer – 7/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Marathon/Betfair)

5.15: Cool Mix – 9/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

5.50: Sebastopol – 15/2 (Unibet)

Additional Ayr entries at 9.00:

NONE

 

BANGOR:

2.10: Warthog – 9/4 (365/Skybet)

3.20: Black Buble – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.55: Kayf Tiger – 14/1 (Skybet)

Additional Bangor entries at 9.00:

1.35: Glenforde – 11/2 (PP)

2.45: No Ceiling – 7/1 (Marathon)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

7.30: Picketts Charge – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

9.00: Air Ministry – 9/2 (365)

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 9.00:

6.30: Foxtrot Knight – 14/1 (Sportingbet)

7.00: Two to consider: Tai Sing Yeh – 12/1 (Generally available) & Energia Flavio – 16/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

22/46—Charlie Appleby (+34) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Ghostwatch (8.30)

15/28—Tom Lacey (+50) – 2 at Ayr: Flashing Glance (2.55) & Sebastopol (5.50)

12/38—John Gosden (+16) – 3 today: Taqdeer (3.45 Newbury) & 2 at Nottingham: Jamih (5.40) & Loujain (7.15)

10/30—Micky Hammond (+48) – 1 at Thirsk: Austellius (5.25)

9/22—Lucinda Russell (+14) – 3 at Ayr: Sky Khan (4.40),The Road Home (5.15) & Precious Cargo (5.50)

8/22—Saeed Bin Suroor (+9) – 3 today: Team Decision (1.25 Newbury), Commander Cole (3.05 Thirsk) & Returning Glory (8.30 Wolverhampton)

8/23—William Haggas – 5 runners – 4 at Newbury: Humbolt Current (1.25), Call To Mind (2.00), Dance For Me (4.20) & Young Rascal (4.55) + 1 at Nottingham: Al Muffrih (5.40)

7/19—Ralph Beckett (+40) – 3 chances: fresh Terms (4.50 Thirsk), Blazing Saddles (4.55 Newbury) & Mount Mariah (6.45 Nottingham)

6/18—Tom Dascombe (+21) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Society Secret (8.00)

5/6—Mick Channon (+17) – 6 at Newbury: Why We Dream (1.25), Dan’s Dream (2.35), Pattie (3.45), Bow Street Runner (4.20), Beer With The Boys (4.55) & Hats Off To Larry (5.30)

5/8—Bob Buckler (+36) – 1 at Ayr: Regal Flow (4.05)

5/11—Tony Carroll (+32) – 1 at Bangor: Black Buble (3.20)

4/9—James Ewart (+6) – 1 at Ayr: Black Pirate (5.05)

2/3—Mark Walford (+31) – 3 runners: Quest For Life (5.15 Ayr) + 2 at Wolverhampton: Dream Free (7.30) & Druid’s Diamond (9.00)

2/4—David Brown (+4) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Sky Gypsy (6.30)

2/4—Jamie Snowden (+34) – 1 at Ayr: Fact Of The Matter (4.05)

36 runners – listed in race order:

1.25: Humbolt Current, Team Decision & Why We Dream

2.00: Call To Mind

2.35: Dan’s Dream

2.55: Flashing Glance

3.05: Commander Cole

3.20: Black Buble

3.45: Taqdeer & Pattie

4.05: Regal Flow & Fact Of The Matter

4.20: Dance For Me & Bow Street Runner

4.40: Sky Khan

4.50: Fresh Terms

4.55: Blazing Saddles, Young Rascal & Beer With The Boys

5.15: The Road Home & Quest For Life

5.25: Austellius

5.30: Hats Off To Larry

5.40: Jamih & Al Muffrih

5.50: Black Pirate, Precious Cargo & Sebastopol

6.30: Sky Gypsy

6.45: Mount Mariah

7.15: Loujain

7.30: Dream Free

8.00: Society Secret

8.30: Ghostwatch & Returning Glory

9.00: Druid’s Diamond

 

SATURDAY’S STAT ATTACKS (FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD UNLESS STATED)

NEWBURY (FOUR YEAR PERIOD – MEETING ABANDONED IN 2016):

30 races – 9 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £34.23

Highest dividend: £47.90 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £19.00 (2014)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

9 winners—John Gosden (Prices ranging between 7/1 & 4/6*) – 1 runner: Taqdeer (3.45)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

33 races – 12 winning favourites – 29/33 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,875.62

Highest dividend: £8,399.00 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £18.10 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Richard Fahey (12/1, 4/1, 11/4, 5/2*, 6/5* & Evens*) – 1 runner: Flying Pandora (7.15)

 

THIRSK:

40 races – 19 winning favourites – 34/40 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £270.66

Highest dividend: £787.90 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £60.00 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Richard Fahey (7/1, 4/1, 11/4*, 11/8* & Evens*) – 8 runners: Connaught Court & Wasntexpectingthat (1.55), Royal Connoisseur (2.30), Kimberella (3.05), Showmethedough & Requinto Dawn (3.40), Northwest Frontier (54.15) & Chief Justice (5.25)

 

AYR:

40 races – 9 winning favourites – 35/40 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £969.24

Highest dividend: £2.947.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £142.80 (2016)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

7 winners—Paul Nicholls (Prices ranging between 14/1 & 9/4*) – 7 runners: Romain De Senam & Dolos (1.45), Mr Mix & Braqueur D’Or (2.20), Adrien Du Pont (3.30) & Silsol & Vicente (4.05)

 

BANGOR:

36 races – 9 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £2,392.84

Highest dividend: £10,789.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £42.30 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Donald McCain (7/1, 7/2, 3/1, 5/2, 15/8 & 11/8*) – 7 runners: Middlebrow (1.35), Banrion Scairp (2.10), Little Stevie (2.45), Ofcourseiwill (3.20), Cowslip & Robert De Bruce (3.55) & Always Du Ceresier (5.35)

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – LIVE FA CUP SEMI FINAL – BBC1 – 5.15 KICK OFF

MANCHESTER UNITED V TOTTENHAM

12/5–United (365/Betfred)

5/2–Draw (Marathon/Betfair)

13/10–Tottenham (Hills/Betfred/Tote)

Half time betting: 

3/1–United (Hills/Black Type)

57/50–Draw (Marathon)

2/1–Tottenham (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle)

Half time/Full time odds: 

5/1–United/United (Hills/BetVicTor)

17/1–United/Draw (BetVictor)

30/1–United/Tottenham (188)

38/5–Draw/United (Marathon)

5/1–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

49/10–Draw/Tottenham (Marathon)

40/1–Tottenham/United (188)

16/1–Tottenham/Draw (Skybet)

14/5–Tottenham/Tottenham (Boyle

TO WIN THE FA CUP – OUTRIGHT BETTING – BEST PRICES:

7/4–Chelsea (365/Unibet/Betfred/888)

2/1–Tottenham (Marathon/Betway/BetBright/188)

11/4–Manchester United (Unibet/888)

20/1–Southampton (Unibet/888)

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

 

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