Feb 23

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 24th February

Friday’s school report:

Plenty of winners again yesterday, including the late 10/1 winner at Wolverhampton, albeit recommended at 8/1!  A ‘loser’ to especially mention in despatches was the 28/1 chance put forward at 5.00 am which finished second at 7/1 eleven hours later!  If that’s what you call a loser, you won’t make money form this service!  Best of luck today…

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – PRICES UPDATED WITH 3 ADDITIONS TODAY

CHEPSTOW:

1.55: Garran City – 11/1 (Skybet) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 9/1

3.05: Eddiemaurice – 10/1 (Hills) – NOW 15/2

3.40: Eminent Poet – 14/1 (Berfair/PP) – NOW 14/1

4.15: Bright New Dawn – 14/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 10/1

4.50: Modeligo – 10/1 (BetVictor) – NOW 8/1

Additional Chepstow entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

KEMPTON:

1.15: My Charity – 16/1 (Stan James) – NOW 14/1

1.50: The Unit – 3/1 (365/Unibet/BetVictor) – NOW 11/4

3.00: Shoal Bay – 16/1 (Stan James) – NOW 12/1

3.35: Art Mauresque – 11/1 (Betfair) – NOW 9/1

4.10: Fourth Act – 6/1 (Hills/Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle) – NOW 5/1

4.45: Special Acceptance – 14/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 11/1

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

NEWCASTLE (NH):

2.45: Back To The Thatch – 9/1 (Winner) – NOW 15/2

Additional Newcastle entry at 8.00:

5.05: Cadeyrn – 5/2 – (Unibet & 888)

 

LINGFIELD (A/W):

2.05: Royal Birth – 13/2 (Betfair) – NOW 6/1

3.50: Mutawathea – 8/1 (Betfair/PP) – 6/1

5.00: The Third Man (Ladbrokes/Hills) – NOW 15/2

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

3.15: Utmost – 6/1 (Winner)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON (A/W):

5.45: Prazeres – 25/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 18/1

6.15: The Amber Fort – 9/2 (Hills) – NOW 7/2

6.45: Lady Persephone – 5/1 (PP) – NOW 9/2

7.15: Midsummer Night – 6/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 5/1

8.15: Critical Thinking – 4/1 (Betfair/PP/Bretfred/Tote) – NOW 10/3

8.45: Clergyman – 6/1 (Skybet) – NOW 9/2

9.15: Binky Blue – 12/1 (Hills) – NOW 10/1

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.00:

7.45: Mr Carbonator – 10/1 (PP)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or a really good level stake profit:

12/33—Henry Daly (+28) – 1 at Newcastle: Back To The Thatch (2.45)

10/31—Sue Smith (+6) – 4 at Newcastle: Smooth Stepper & Hainan (2.45), Joke Dancer (3.55) & Wolf Sword (4.30)

7/16—John Gosden (+18) – 1 at Lingfield: Utmost (3.15)

6/10—Andrew Balding (+10) – 1 at Doha: Elbereth (1.15)

6/17—Rose Dobbin (+13) – 1 at Newcastle: Planet Nine (5.05)

5/14—Archie Watson (+5) – 4 at Lingfield: Ghost Serge (1.30), Karijini (2.05), Petite Jack (3.15) & Chevalier (3.50)

5/15—Fergal O’Brien (+9) – 4 chances: Chase The Spod (2.45 Newcastle), Mast Dee (3.35 Kempton), Saturdaynightfever (4.45 Kempton) & Feel The Pinch (5.20 Chepstow)

5/17—Warren Greatrex (+6) – 3 chances: Monthyne (1.55 Chepstow), Theatre Territory (3.25 Kempton) & Carnspindle (3.40 Chepstow)

4/9—Dr Richard Newland (+10) – 1 at Newcastle: West Of The Edge (2.45)

4/12—Keith Dalgleish (+7) – 2 chances: Mirsalle (3.55 Newcastle) & Play With Me (8.45 Wolverhampton)

3/4—Robert Cowell (+5) – 2 at Lingfield: Encore D’Or (2.05) & Grandfather Tom (2.40)

3/4—Chris Gordon (+15) – 1 at Kempton: Rothman (4.10)

3/6—Peter Bowen (+13) – 1 at Kempton: Potters Tale (4.45)

3/7—Dan Skelton (+19) – 6 runners – 3 at Kempton: Earlshill & Petrou (1.50) & Destrier (3.00) & 3 at Chepstow: Applesandpierres (3.05), Savello (4.15) & Supremely Lucky (5.15)

3/8—Henry Spiller (+6) – 1 at Lingfield: The Third Man (5.00)

Last 2 runners have won: Derek Ivory (+14) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Varsovian (6.15) & Angel Of The South (7.15)

Last 2 runners have won—Donald Whillans (+9) – 1 at Newcastle: Paper Roses (3.20)

2/3—Mark Bradstock (+4) – 1 at Chepstow: Flintham (2.30)

2/3—Richard Hannon (6) – 3 at Lingfield: Given Name (1.30), Tomily (2.05) & Moneyoryourlife (5.00)

2/3—Graeme McPherson (+14) – 2 at Kempton: My Charity (1.15) & Kayf Blanco (4.10)

2/3—Martyn Meade (+6) – 1 at Lingfield: Socilogist (1.30)

2/4—Jamie Snowden (+2) – 1 at Kempton: Carntop (3.00)

2/4—James Tate (+5) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Battle Lines & Yamuna River (7.45)

2/5—Zoe Davison (+25) – 1 at Chepstow: Finnegan’s Garden (4.50)

2/5—Pat Phelan (+5) – 1 at Lingfield: Pivotal Flame (5.00)

2/5—Lucy Wadham (+8) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Alizee Javilex (6.45)

2/5—Nick Williams – 1 at Chepstow: Diable De Sivola (3.05)

+ 3/6–Alan King (+5) – 11 runners today: 8 at Kempton and one each at Chepstow, Lingfield & Wolverhampton

51 named runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

1.15: My Charity & Elbereth

1.30: Sociologist, Ghost Serge & Given Name

1.50: Earlshill & Petrou

1.55: Monthyne

2.05: Tomily, Karijini & Encore D’Or

2.30: Flintham

2.40: Grandfather Tom

2.45: West Of The Edge, Smooth Stepper, Back To The Thatch, Chase The Spud & Hainan

3.00: Carntop & Destrier

3.05: Diable De Sivola & Applesandpierres

3.15: Utmost & Petite Jack

3.20: Paper Roses

3.25: Theatre Territory

3.35: Master Dee

3.40: Carnspindle

3.50: Chevalier

3.55: Mirsaale & Joke Dancer

4.10: Rothman & Kayf Blanco

4.15: Savello

4.30: Wolf Sword

4.45: Potters Tale & Saturdaynightfever

4.50: Finnegan’s Garden

5.00: Moneyoryourlife, The Third Man & Pivotal Flame

5.05: Planet Nine

5.15: Savello & Supremely Lucky

5.20: Feel The Pinch

6.15: Varsovian

6.45: Alizee Javilex

7.15: Angel Of The South

7.45: Battle Lines & Yamuna River

8.45: Play With Me

SATURDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

KEMPTON:

35 races – 11 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £696.38

Highest dividend: £3,166.30 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £19.50 (2014)

It’s worth noting that 17/35 winners during the last five years have been won by just three trainers.  Alan King and Nicky Henderson have both secured five victories with Paul Nicholls (stats featured below) weighing in with seven gold medallists.  All 17 winners scored at a top price of 9/1, figures which included an aggregate of seven successful market leaders.

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

7 winners—Paul Nicholls (9/1, 8/1, 9/4, 5/4*, Evens*, 8/11* & 4/6*) – 8 runners today: Cyrname (1.50), Grand Sancy & Malaya (2.25), Mont Des Avloirs (3.00) Art Mauresque & As De Mee (3.35), Favorito Buck’s (4,.10) & Danny Kirwan (4.45)

 

CHEPSTOW:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £92.24

Highest dividend: £136.20 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £27.30 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Philip Hobbs (11/2, 7/2, 13/5* & 2/1) – 3 runners today: Cotswold Way (1.55), Rolling Dylan (2.30) & Pointed And Sharp (3.05)

4 winners—David Pipe (12/1, 8/1, 9/2 & 15/8**) – 2 runners today: Garran City (1.55) & Poker Play (3.40)

 

NEWCASTLE (Four year study – meeting abandoned in 2013:

28 races – 7 winning favourites – 27/28 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £301.02

Highest dividend: £657.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £95.50 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Brian Ellison (6/1, 6/1 & 11/2 twice) – 3 runners today: Chateau Marmont (1.35), Smart Talk (3.55) & Viens Chercher (4.30)

 

SUNDAY IN FORM TRAINERS – WITH NO RUNNERS TODAY:

3/4—Henry Oliver (+15) – 4 runners – 3 at Southwell: Today Please (2.00), Hijran (3.00) & Whispering Harry (4.05) + 1 at Fontwell: Dr Des (3.20)

3/8—Richard Spencer (+6) – 1 at Fontwell: Aptly Put (3.55)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SUNDAY

FONTWELL:

2.50: Colin Tizzard is the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions having only been represented three times.  Colin saddles Fergal Mael Duin this time around.

3.20: Paul Nicholls has been represented six times in the last seven years and is the only trainer to have won the race twice during the period.  Paul has offered the green light to Old Guard on this occasion.

4.25: Paul Nicholls (Unioniste) has won all four renewals when represented during the last decade.  Market leaders have won nine of the last ten contests, the other race having been won by the 4/1 second favourite.

NAAS:

3.45: Henry De Bromhead has saddled four of the last five winners.  Henry’s entry Aliisier D’Irlande is quoted as a 9/1 chance in the betting forecast in the trade press.

5.15: Willie Mullins (Carefully Selected) leads Gordon Elliott (Invincible Care) 4-2 via the last seven renewals.

Unfortunately, there is nothing to report from the meeting at Southwell.

Be lucky but as always – Be aware!

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