Jan 27

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 27th

Friday’s school report:

Winners at 16/1 and 14/1 offered at 5.15 am (returned at 7/1 & 9/1 respectively) kept the wolf well and truly away from the door, though frustration was still in abundance given that we slaughtered the books on occasions yesterday, only to be beaten in the same races.  The best example I guess was Carp Kid who was backed from 3/1 to 4/5, only to find one too good.

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – ADDITIONS ADDED AT 8.15 – BEST OF LUCK TODAY GUYS!

CHELTENHAM:

1.15: War Sound – 10/1 (Skybet/Betfair/PP)

1.50: O O Seven – 11/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/Stan James)

2.25: The Last Samurai – 5/1 (PP & Boylesports)

3.35: Thomas Campbell – 9/1 (PP)

4.10: Dino Velvet – 14/1 (Hills)

Additional Cheltenham entry at 8.00:

 3.00: Slate House – 9/1 (Skybet/Hills/PP)

DONCASTER:

12.55: Amadeus Rox – 8/1 (Generally available)

1.30: Adrien Du Pont – 11/2 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

2.05: Station Master – 5/1 (Hills)

2.40: The Nipper – 14/1 (Hills/Coral/BetVictor)

3.15: L’Ami Serge – 11/4 (365 & Skybet)

3.50: Theo – 8/1 (Generally available)

Additional Doncaster entries at 8.00:

NONE

UTTOXETER:

NONE AT 5.00

Added Uttoxeter entries at 8.00:

2.20: Crank Em Up – 9/4 (Betfred/Tote)

4.30: Comber Mill (9/4 (Betfred/Tote)

LINGFIELD:

2.00: Chester Street – 13/2 (PP & BetVictor)

2.35: Fiery Breath – 9/2 (365 & BetVictor)

3.45: Almustashar – 5/1 (PP/Betfred/Tote/BetVictor)

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

Coupled scenario at 5/2 with Betfred/Tote in the 3.10:  Intrepidly at 4/1 & Ming Dynasty at 11/1

4.15: Pride Of Angels – 11/4 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

KEMPTON:

7.15: Angel Of The South – 11/1 (Hills & Betbright)

Two to consider at 12/1 – Almutamared (Ladbrokes) & Tis Wonderful (365/Hills/BetVictor) = 11/2 coupled

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

6.45: Higher Court – 5/1 (PP/BetVictor)

8.15: Golden Wedding – 12/1 (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

16/51—Harry Whittington (+10) – 1 at Doncaster: Bigmarte (3.50)

9/18—Donald McCain (11) – 3 runners: Birch Bank (1.45 Uttoxeter), Federici (3.15 Doncaster) & Viserion (4.10 Cheltenham)

9/25—Olly Murphy (+24) – 4 today: Miles To Milan (12.55 Doncaster), Whiskey In The Jar (1.45 Uttoxeter), Its O Kay (4.20 Doncaster), Avocet (8.45 Kempton)

9/27—Nicky Henderson (+8) – 7 runners: 5 at Cheltenham: Apple’s Shikari (12.40), O O Seven (1.50), Santini & Pacific De Baune (3.00) & Thomas Campbell (3.35) + 2 at Doncaster: Indian Hawk (2.05) & L’Ami Serge (3.15)

9/30—Charlie Appleby (+2) – 3 chances: Celestial Spheres (3.10 Lingfield), Cosmic Glow (3.45 Lingfeild) & Native Arrow (5.45 Kempton)

7/18—Henry Daly (+19) – 1 at Uttoxeter: Keyfleur (3.30)

7/18—Warren Greatrex (+11) – 4 today: Theatre Territory (1.15 Cheltenham), Ceann Sibheal (2.20 Uttoxeter), The Nipper (2.40 Doncvaster) & Mulcahys Hill (3.00 Cheltenham)

6/19—Harry Fry (+5) – 4 today: American (2.25 Cheltenham), Secret Door (3.30 Uttoxeter), Litterdale Ci (4.190 Cheltenham) & Ritas Bid (4.20 Doncaster)

5/16—Mick Easterby (+10) – 1 at Kempton: Holiday Magic (7.45)

4/9—Neil Mulholland (+14) – 2 today: Tikkanbar (3.00 Cheltenham) & Pilgrims Bay (3.15 Doncaster)

4/10—Derek Shaw (+3) – 2 at Kempton: Born For Prosecco (6.15) & Loyalty (8.15)

4/11—Simon Dow (+6) – 1 at Lingfield: Pastoral Dreams (1.25)

4/11—John Gosden (+1) – 2 chances: Daltrey (3.45 Lingfield) & Shakour (5.45 Kempton)

4/11—Dan Skelton – 8 runners: 4 at Doncaster: Bandsman (12.55), Shantou Rock 1.30), Shannon Bridge (2.05) & Long House Hall (3.15) + 4 at Uttoxeter: Zebi Boy (1.45), Blairs Cove & Applesandpierres (2.55) & Ckalco Des Loges (4.00)

4/11—Nick Williams (+27) – 4 at Cheltenham: Erick Le Rouge (12.40), Coo Star Sivola (1.50), Tea For Two (2.25) & Agrapart (3.35)

4/13—Brian Ellison (+1) – 4 runners: Definitely Red (2.25 Cheltenham), Smart Talk (2.40 Doncaster), Forest Bihan (3.50 Doncaster) & Zaidiyn (4.10 Cheltenham)

4/16—Mark Johnston (+1) – 3 runners: Aquarium (1.25 Lingfield), Victoria Drummond (5.45 Kempton) & Emilia James (7.15 Kempton)

3/5—Robin Dickin (+2) – 1 at Uttoxeter: Timon’s Tara (4.00)

3/5—Mike Murphy (+22) – 1 at Kempton: Desert Fox (6.45)

3/6—Chris Gordon (+16) – 1 at Cheltenham: Remiluc (4.10)

3/7—Kim Bailey (+3) – 3 chances: Station Master (2.05 Doncaster), The Last Samurai (2.25 Cheltenham) & Thumb Stone Blues (3.15 Doncaster)

3/7—John O’Shea (+19) – 2 at Kempton: Major Valentine & Kinglami (6.45)

3/8—Amy Murphy (+7) – 1 at Kempton: The Accountant (5.45)

3/10—Malcolm Jefferson (+10) – 3 at Doncaster: Princess Tara (12.55), Double W’s (3.50) & Branston Doyen (4.20)

3/12—Gay Kelleway (+28) – 1 at Lingfield: Tea El Tee (4.15)

67 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

12.40: Erick Le Rouge & Apples’s Shakira

12.55: Miles To Milan, Bandsman & Princess Tara

1.15: Theatre Terriroty

1.25: Aquarium & Pastoral Dreams

1.30: Shantou Rock

1.45: Whiskey In The Jar, Birch Bank & Zebi Boy

1.50: Coo Star Sivola & O O Seven

2.05: Station Master, Indian Hawk & Shannon Bridge

2.20: Ceann Sibheal

2.25: The Last Samurai, American, Tea For Two & Definitely Red

2.40: Smart Talk & The Nipper

2.55: Blairs Cove & Applesandpierres

3.00: Tikkanbar, Santini, Pacific De Baune & Milcahys Hill

3.10: Celestial Spheres

3.15: Thumb Stone Blues, Pilgrims Bay, Federici, L’Ami Serge & Long House Hall

3.30: Secret Door & Kayfleur

3.35: Agrapart & Thomas Campbell

3.45: Daltrey & Cosmic Glow

3.50: Forest Bihan, Bigmarte & Double W’s

4.00: Ckalco Des Loges & Timons Tara

4.10: Zaidiyn, Remiluc, Viserion & Litterdale Ci

4.15: Tea El Tee

4.20: Its O Kay, Ritas Bid & Branston Doyen

5.45: Victoria Drummond, Shakour, Native Arrow & The Accountant

6.15: Born For Posecco

6.45: Desert Fox, Major Valentine & Kinglami

7.15: Emilia James

7.45: Holiday Magic

8.15: Loyalty

8.45: Avocet

 

SATURDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

DONCASTER:

36 races – 10 winning favourites – 33/36 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £295.18

Highest dividend: £591.50 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £61.20 (2012)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Nicky Henderson (16/1, 9/2, 4/1, 7/2*, 2/1 & 6/4) – 2 runners: Indian Hawk (2.05) & L’Ami Serge (3.15)

5 winners—Alan King (11/1, 10/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 15/8*) – 5 runners: Amaduus Rox (12.55), Sceau Royal (1.30), Dusky Legend (2.40), Label Des Obeaux (3.15) & Hurricane Minnie (4.20)

 

UTTOXETER (Four year study):

25 races – 11 winning favourites – 24/25 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,457.05

Highest dividend: £5,524.10 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £65.30 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Oliver Sherwood is the only trainer to have saddled more than two winner but he is not represented at Uttoxeter today.  Out of interest, Oliver’s only runner today is a 33/1 chance: Minella On Line (3.15 Doncaster)

 

LINGFIELD (Six year study):

42 races – 9 winning favourites – 40/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £66.02

Highest dividend: £105.60 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £22.70 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Ed Vaughan (9/2, 4/1 & 9/4*) – 1 runner: Heaven Up Here (1.25)

3 winners—Mark Johnston (7/2, 7/2 & 5/2*) – 1 runner: Aquarium (1.25)

 

LEADING TRAINERS (WITH RUNNERS TODAY) AT CHELTENHAM THIS SEASON:

7/23—Nicky Henderson (slight level stake profit) – 5 runners

7/32—Colin Tizzard (loss of 12 points) – 6 runners

7/36—Nigel Twiston-Davies (+2) – 5 runners

 

CHELTENHAM – SATURDAY – 10 YEAR STUDY PERIOD – UPDATED INFO

JUVENILE HURDLE – 12.40

Nicky Henderson posted two very strong entries earlier in the week in Apple’s Shakira and We Have A Dream, given that the trainer has saddled three of the last four winners of this event when represented.  Nicky has opted for ‘Apples’ this time around.

Seven of the last ten winners have contested the Triumph Hurdle, two of which won at 5/2* & 2/1*.  Three of the other five (all favourites at the Festival) reached the frame.

Two winners of this race did not appear at Cheltenham in the same year, whilst the other finished nearer last than first when sent off as a 40/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’.

Eight winners during the study period scored at a top price of 5/2, stats which include five successful market leaders and one joint favourite.  To balance the books in no uncertain terms, the other winners scored at 100/1 and 25/1.

NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE – 1.15

Nine of the ten winners have contested various races at the Festival with three claiming Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Eight renewals have slipped by since the last (3/1) favourite obliged. Three of the last five gold medallists scored at 25/1, 14/1 & 12/1.  The last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11.  Seven-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, having secured five of the last eight contests.  Ballyandy & Full Irish possess ticks in both of the trend boxes.

Colin Tizzard potentially saddled the top two horses in the handicap (West Approach & Sizing Tennessee) in an attempt to win this event for the third time in nine years.  No other trainer has saddled more than one winner of the race during the study period. Colin has given the green light to Sixing Tennessee.

GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE – 1.50

Given the competitive nature of this event, fancied horses have a decent record, given that nine winners during the study period were sent off at a top price of 9/1, stats which include two winning (9/2 & 4/1) favourites.

Eight-year-olds lead the way with four victories coming into this year’s contest on a hat trick.  All manner of weights have been carried whereby no recent bias can be detected.  Four eight-year-olds have been declared.

Eight of the last ten winners have gone on to run at the festival in various events, with The Giant Bolster very much the star turn having finished second in the 2012 running of the Gold Cup at odds of 50/1.

Collectively however, just two of the eight relevant runners finished in the frame (no winners).  The other placed horse snared the silver medal in the ‘Jewson’ as the 7/2 favourite, the only winner to have contested that particular event.

COTSWOLD CHASE – 2.25

No favourite has won this race during the last decade during which time, six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.  That said, the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, though the previous gold medallists were returned at 16/1, 16/1 and 11/1

10-year-olds lead the nine-year-old 5-4 during the study period, whilst Oliver Sherwood and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers to have saddled two winners during the last ten years.  Paul has saddled a total of four winners, a sequence which was started by See More Business back in 1999. The Last Samurai is the only ten-year-old in the line up, whilst the nine-year-old vintage is represented by Definitely Red & Tea For Two.  Paul Nicholls is not represented today.

Three of the last ten winners missed the Cheltenham Festival (Gold Cup) in the same year.

Only one of the other seven runners reached the frame in the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup and that was The Giant Bolster which finished third at 14/1 in 2014.  Others finished down the field in the ‘Blue Riband’ at 7/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 33/1.  As a ‘trial’, the ‘Cotswold’ is not all it is cracked up to be.

GRADE 2 NOVICE HURDLE – 3.00

Six-year-olds have won eight of the last nine renewals, whilst favourites have won four contests of late, eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 13/2. Six-year-olds are 4/5 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted.

Horses going on to contest the ‘Albert Bartlett’ have the best record, given that three of the relevant four contenders finished in the frame, stats which include two winners at 15/8* & 13/8*.  The other contender was well placed to claim a Placepot position when falling at the last flight.

Five winners have contested the ‘Neptune’ at the festival (includes the previously named Ballymore Novices), though the best they have managed recently was by snaring silver and bronze medals at 11/10* and 4/1* respectively.

CLEEVE HURDLE – 3.35:

Nine of the ten winners have gone on to contest the ‘Stayers’ event, resulting in four victories (6/1, 11/8*, Evens* & 5/6*) and three placed efforts.

One gold medallist (Knockara Beau) contested the Gold Cup (finished 7th) in the same year as a 66/1 chance in 2014, the same price as when winning this event four years ago.

The other nine winners of this Grade 2 event all scored at a top price of 7/2, stats which include six successful market leaders.

To suggest that there would be emotional scenes at Cheltenham if Beer Goggles wins the day is the understatement of the year.

HANDICAP HURDLE – 4.10

Bookmakers have endured something of a rough ride in the closing race of late, given that all ten winners during the study period have been returned in single figures, stats which include three favourites of one description or another.

All 10 winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, though there is no obvious vintage bias.  The bottom six horses in the handicap all carry ‘superior’ weight according to recent results.

Two winners have been lured away from Cheltenham the same year having unsuccessfully contested the Imperial Cup at Sandown at the weekend before the festival.

The only horse to have contested the County Hurdle (Paul Nicholls trained Lac Fontana) won the race four years ago at odds of 11/1.  The other four winners ran in different races at the festival without troubling the judge.

CHELTENHAM TRIALS DAY – 10 YEAR STUDY

73 races – 24 winning favourites – 62/73 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £175.46

Highest dividend: £727.90 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £8.40 (2009)

Trainers with at least three winners during the study period – number of runners on Saturday:

10 winners—Alan King (16/1, 12/1, 13/2, 13/2, 5/1, 9/2, 2/1*, 7/4**, 6/5* & 10/11*). Alan achieved a 122/1 treble in 2016 when he secured an 11,136/1 five-timer on the day around the country.  Alan also claimed a 267/1 treble on the Cheltenham card in 2012 – Alan has posted nine entries during the week but now relies on Dino Velvet (4.10)

8—Paul Nicholls (16/1, 11/2, 5/1, 4/1***, 7/2, 3/1, 3/1*, 1/4*) – 1 runner

6—Nicky Henderson (25/1, 7/2, 5/2, 7/4*, 4/9* & 1/5*) – 5 runners

4—Philip Hobbs (9/1, 7/1, 9/2* & 1/5*) – 2 runners

4—Colin Tizzard (12/1, 11/1, 5/1 & 4/5*) – 6 runners

4—Nigel Twiston Davies (100/1, 16/1, 12/1 & 11/4*) – 5 runners

4—Nick Williams (11/2, 2/1, 15/8* & 8/15*) – 4 runners

3—David Bridgwater (6/1, 5/1 & 7/2) – No runners

3—Venetia Williams (8/1, 4/1* & 3/1*) – 1 runner

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

 

 

 

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