Mar 31

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 31st

Friday’s school report:

So many winners + Placepot up – the day would have been even better but for the Newcastle Stewards intervening (All details via my Twitter page)!

*Experienced readers will be aware of my support for Deeds Not Words (runs tonight in the 8.45 at Chelmsford) these last few assignments and though I am not suggesting he is the business for tonight, his winning days are far from over from my viewpoint.  A saver might be in order at a double figure price.  I should also draw your attention towards two horses at Musselburgh today at either end of the betting scale – find the feature towards the bottom of today’s work, just before the football offering…

APPROXIMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.45: MAL’S KEMPTON ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.15: STAT ATTACKS – DONE

7.30: MUSSELBURGH FEATURE – OFFERING TWO HORSES TO CONSIDER – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 10 ADDITIONS

9.15: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

10.00: FOOTBALL SERVICE – DONE

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

 

CARLISLE:

3.25: Pistol Park – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Two to consider: General Mahler – 5/1 (365/BetVictor) & Skip The Scales – 13/2 (Betfair)

Additional Carlisle entries at 8.00:

2.15: Elusive Theatre – 4/1 (Unibet/888)

2.50: Pixiepot – 10/3 (Sunbets)

4.35: Purple Harry – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

5.10: Lily’s Gem – 4/1 (Hills)

 

HAYDOCK:

2.40: Applesandpierres – 8/1 (365/Boyle)

3.15: Shanroe In Milan – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.50: Lamanver Odyssey – 13/2 (Betfair)

4.25: Aaron Lad – 15/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle)

5.00: Socksy – 9/1 (Generally)

5.35: Milborough – 25/1 (Skybet/Hills/Marathon/PP/Unibet)

Additional Haydock entry at 8.00:

2.05: Crievehill – 5/2 (Sportingbet)

 

MUSSELBURGH:

1.50: Hayadh – 12/1 (PP)

2.25: Caspian Prince – 7/1 (Betfair)

3.00: Fake News – 11/2 (365/Skybet/Hills/Betfair)

3.35: Brandon Castle – 14/1 (365/Betfair/PP/Boyle/BetVictor)

Additional Musselburgh entry at 8.00:

4.45: Imagine If – 12/1 (betfair/PP)

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

3.45: Tome To Blossom – 9/2 (Betfair)

4.20: Arab Moon – 7/1 (365/PP/Unibet/888)

4.55: Solar Flare – 8/1 (Betfair)

5.30: Ascot Day – 6/1 (PP)

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

2.35: Two horses to consider: Dommersen – 15/2 (Betbright) & Snowy Winter – 25/1 (Sportingbet)

 

CHELMSFORD:

5.45: No Approval – 6/1 (Generally available)

8.15: Arabian Jazz – 10/3 (Betfair/PP)

8.45: Breathoffreshair – 11/2 (Hills)

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

7.15: Midsummer Knight – 9/2 (Generally available)

7.45: George Of Hearts – 5/4 (Sportingbet)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

11/19—Charlie Appleby (+21) – 1 at Chelmsford (Warburton (6.15) + 8 at Meydan!

7/14—Jeremy Noseda (+3) – 1 at Kempton: Intrepidly (4.20)

7/14—Paul Nicholls (+8) – 2 at Haydock: Orbasa (2.05) & Coillte Lass (3.50)

7/18—Jenny Candlish (+14) – 2 at Haydock: Sleepy Haven (2.40) & Bryden Boy (4.25)

7/25—Phil Kirby (+2) – 3 chances: Skip The Scales (4.00 Carlisle), Nautical Nitwit (4.25 Haydock) & Kilcullen Flem (5.35 Haydock)

5/12–Michael Appleby (+24) – 2 at Musselburgh: Caspian Prince (2.25) & Cape Cova (3.35)

4/7—William Haggas (+8) – 1 at Meydan: Dal Harraild (1.50)

4/10—Heather Main (+31) – 1 at Kempton: Childe Harold (2.00)

3/6—Harry Fry (+3) – 3 today: Behind Time (3.15 Haydock), American Gigolo (3.35 Musselburgh) & Lamanver Odyssee (3.50 Haydock)

3/7—Simon Dow (+11) – 2 at Kempton: Emenem (4.20) & Sparkalot (4.55)

3/9—Donald Whillans (19) – 1 at Haydock: Baby Ticker (3.50)

2/3—Stuart Crawford (+8) – 5 at Carlisle: Elusicve Theatre (2.15), Crawfords Mill & Our Valentina (2.50), Verona Opera (3.25), Lily’s Gem (5.10)

2/4—Brian Ellison (+24) – 3 at Carlisle: Ballycristal (2.15), Pistol Park (3.25) & General Mahler (4.00)

27 runners – listed in race order:

1.50: Dal Harraild

2.00: Childe Harold

2.05: Orbasa

2.15: Elusive Theatre & Ballycristal

2.25: Caspian Prince

2.40: Sleepy Haven

2.50: Crawfords Mill & Our Valentina

3.15: Behind Time

3.25: Verona Opera & Pistol Park

3.35: American Gigolo & Cape Cova

3.50: Baby Ticker, Coillte Lass & Lamanver Odyssey

4.00: General Mahler & Skip The Scales

4.20: Intrepidly & Emenem

4.25: Bryden Boy & Nautical Nitwit

4.55: Sparkalot

5.10: Lily’s Gem

5.35: Kilcullen Flem

6.15: Warburton

 

SATURDAY’S STAT ATTACKS:

 

CARLISLE (SATURDAY):

44 races – 17 winning favourites – 40/44 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £169.00

Highest dividend: £593.30 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £36.10 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Lucinda Russell (13/2, 5/1 & 5/1 twice) – 3 runners today: Dancing Amy (2.50), Misfits (4.35) & Blue Baton (5.10)

4 winners—Sue Smith (4/1, 3/1, 7/4* & 13/8*) – 2 runners: Wolf Sword (3.25) & Dick Darsie (4.35)

 

HAYDOCK (SATURDAY):

42 races – 11 winning favourites – 37/42 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,052.85

Highest dividend: £3,207.30 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £305.00 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Nigel Twiston-Davies (11/1, 15/2, 9/2, 4/1*, 7/2* & 5/4*) – 3 runners: Crievehill (2.05), Wicked Willy (3.15) & Muckle Roe (5.35)

4 winners—Alan King (25/1, 12/1, 17/2 & 7/2) – 3 runners: Peggies Venture & Awesome Rosie (3.50) & Tara View (4.25)

 

KEMPTON (SATURDAY):

43 races – 15 winning favourites – 37/43 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £264.30

Highest dividend: £424.70 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £119.20 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Mark Johnston (9/1, 6/5* & 8/13*) – 2 runners: Fire Fighting (4.20) & Afandem (5.30)

3 winners—Richard Hannon (5/1, 3/1 & 5/6* – stretches to four winners if you include a Richard Hannon Senior winner at 16/1 during the period!) – 7 runners: Tigre Du Terre & Star Of Southwold (2.00), Wicked Sea & Qaysar (3.10), Contrast (4.20), Tomily (4.55) & Repton (5.30)

 

STATS AND FACTS FOR MUSSELBURGH TODAY:

2.25: Bryan Smart has won four of the seven races in which he has been represented of late – saddles ALPHA DELPHINI with a favourite’s chance today – 6/4 across the board at the time of writing

3.00: All three winners of this event have carried a maximum burden of 8-9 – three qualifiers today.  The pick of the trio should prove to be SHUHOOD for a few reasons, all related to trainer Ian Williams.  Shuhood is Ian’s only flat (turf) runner for the foreseeable future, boasting a 1/1 stat on the level in this new season. Ian has not saddled a runner on the flat at Musselbrugh in the last five years, though his ratio at the venue is 2/7 since he took out a license back in 1996.  Best price is 16/1 at the time of writing (Betfair and PP – won’t last in my opinion), though Skybet offer 14/1 which is worth an interest if you fancy an each way play, given that they are paying four places in this 12 runner contest

 

PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL (BEST PRICES) – SATURDAY:

6/1—Crystal Palace (Generally available)

39/10—Draw (Marathon)

1/2—Liverpool (Generally available)

Half time betting:

6/1—Crystal Palace (BetVictor)

8/5—Draw (Marathon)

21/10—Liverpool (Black Type)

 

29/20—Watford (BetVictor)

51/20—Draw (Marathon)

12/5—Bournemouth (Unitbet)

Half time betting:

15/8—Watford (Generally available)

5/4—Draw (365)

14/5—Bournemouth (Marathon)

 

19/10—Brighton (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (Betfair)

7/4—Leicester (Marathon/Betfred)

Half time betting:

13/5—Brighton (Ladbrokes/Coral)

21/10—Draw (Betfrred/Betway)

23/10—Leicester (Generally available)

 

17/10—West Brom (BetVictor)

11/5—Draw (Black Type)

11/5—Burnley (Marathon/Betway)

Half time betting:

13/5—West Brom (BetVictor)

20/21—Draw (Betfred)

14/5—Leicester (188)

 

1/4—Man Utd (Generally available)

11/2—Draw (Coral/Betfred/Black Type)

16/1—Swansea (365/Betfair)

Half time betting:

3/4–Man Utd (Ladbrokes/Coral)

6/4—Draw (Generally available)

11/1—Swansea (Marathon)

 

19/10—West Ham (Generally available)

9/4—Draw (Generally available)

17/10—Southampton (Generally available)

Half time betting:

13/5—West Ham (Generally available)

21/20—Draw (Betway)

12/5—Southampton (Ladbrokes/Coral)

 

4/5—Newcastle (Generally available)

27/10—Draw (365/Betfred)

9/2—Huddersfield (Black Type)

Half time betting:

6/4—Newcastle (Ladbrokes/Coral)

11/10—Draw (Generally available)

24/5—Huddersfield (Marathon)

 

10/1—Everton (BetVictor)

9/2—Draw (Betfair)

4/11—Man City (Generally available)

Half time betting:

8/1—Everton (BetVictor)

8/5—Draw (Unibet/888)

20/23—Man City (Ladbrokes/Coral)

 

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

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