Feb 03

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 3rd

Friday’s school report:

Two MMA winners to report at 11/2 (SP) and 3/1 though frustratingly, plenty of horses went close having been well backed, none more so than our 25/1 runner up St Mary’s which was sent off at 13/2!

Plenty of winners via the in form trainers list to report, including those at 18/1, 8/1, 6/1 & 11/2.  The Stat Attack and Ahead Of The Game services also offered winners.

I should also point out that one of the highlighted in form trainers (Mark Johnston) secured a 105/1 treble via just four runners yesterday!

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

MUSSELBURGH:

1.30: Keeper Hill – 7/2 (Betfair/PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 15/8

2.05: Two against the field with Betfair/PP: 7/1 – Crackdeloust & 15/2 Dear Sire – NOW 6/1 & 13/2

2.45: Contre Tous – 13/2 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 11/2

3.15: Bells n Banjos – 8/1 (Boyle) – NOW 7/1

3.45: Graystown – 20/1 (Hills/Marathon/Coral – NOW 16/1

Additional Musselburgh entry at 8.00:

12.55: Tokaramour – 25/1 (Ladbrokes) 

SANDOWN:

3.00: Man Of Plenty – 28/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Coral) – NOW 25/1

3.35: Shanroe Santos – 12/1 (365/Stan James) – NOW 10/1

Additional Sandown entry at 8.00:

1.15: Big Jim – 15/2 (Betbright) 

WETHERBY:

1.00: Shambra – 2/1 (Hills/Betfair) – NOW 15/8

3.55: Wells De Lune – 9/2 (365) – NOW 7/2

Additional Wetherby entries at 8.00:

1.35: Kayf Bianco – 15/2 (Ladbrokes) 

2.40: Shades Of Midnight – 33/1 (Bet 365 – to throw some loose change at)

4.30: Doc Penfro – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

LINGFIELD:

12.50: Rose Tinted Spirit – 10/1 (PP) – NOW 15/2

1.25: Authors Dream – 3/1 (Hills/Betfair/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 5/2

3.40: Aiya – 9/4 (365) – NOW 2/1

Additional Lingfield entry at 8.00:

3.05: Petite Jack – 13/2 (Ladbrokes) 

KEMPTON:

5.45: Only Ten Per Cent – 12/1 (365) – NOW 9/1

8.15: Intermodel – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills) – NOW 7/1

Additional Kempton entry at 8.00:

7.15: Motown Mick – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

16/53—Harry Whittington (+18) – 2 at Wetherby: Blue Valentine (1.00) & Dette De Jeu (4.30)

13/42—Charlie Appleby (+9) – 1 at Kempton: Night Castle (6.15)

12/33—Donald McCain (+5) – 3 at Musselburgh: Dear Sire (2.05), Ink Master (2.45) & Character Onesie (3.45)

11/37—Nicky Henderson (+4) – 5 at Sandown: Countister (12.40), Buveur D’Air (1.50), Terrefort (2.25), Beat That (3.00) & Colonial Dreams (4.10)

10/32—Olly Murphy (+19) – 1 today at Wetherby: Knockgraffon (1.35)

9/30—Warren Greatrex (+3) – 2 at Musselburgh: Keeper Hill (1.30) & Missed Appraoch (3.15)

9/36—Tom Lacey (+30) – 1 at Wetherby: Coningsby (2.10)

7/20—David Elsworth (+22) – 2 at Kempton: Ripp Orf (6.15) & Morning Has Broken (7.15)

6/11—Mark Johnston (+24) – 4 today: 3 at Lingfield: Austin Powers (12.50), Fire Fighting (3.05) & Barbara Villiers (3.40) + 1 at Kempton: The British Lion (6.45)

6/22—Keith Dalgleish (+40) – 1 at Musselburgh: Starplex (3.45)

5/10—Rose Dobbin (+16) – 1 at Musselburgh: Mister Don (3.15)

5/10—Archie Watson (+36) – 1 at Lingfield: Pwetite Jack (3.05 Lingfield)

4/10—Iain Jardine (+14) – 1 at Musselburgh: Tokaramore (12.55)

4/10—Sue Smith (+10) – 4 today: Trooblue (1.00 Wetherby), Vintage Clouds (2.40 Wetherby), Delusionogfgrandeur (3.15 Musselburgh) & Informateur (4.30 Wetherby)

4/12—Simon Dow (+5) – 2 at runners: El Borracho (12.50) & Ojala (7.15 Kempton)

4/13—Kim Bailey – 1 at Musselburgh: Gallery Exhibition (4.20)

4/15—Tony Carroll (+44) – 3 at Kempton: Arya Stark & Assertor (5.45) & Poetic Force (7.45)

3/6—Colin Tizzard (+11) – 4 at Sandown: (Ainchea (12.40), West Approach (2.25), Fourth Act (3.00) & Quite By Chance (3.35)

3/8—Amy Murphy (+9) – 2 at Wetherby: Mercian Prince (1.35) & Tupolev (4.30)

3/10—Mick Channon (+6) – 1 at Kempton: Iconic Belle (8.15)

Last two runners have won—David C Griffiths (+5) – 1 at Lingfield: Brother Tiger (2.35)

Last two runners have won—Seamus Mullins (+9) – 3 at Sandown: Artington (12.40), Somechine (1.15) & Landin (4.10)

+ 3/7—Paul Nicholls (+3) – 11 today – 6 at Musselburgh & 5 at Sandown

46 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

12.40: Artington, Ainchea & Countister

12.50: El Borracho & Austin Powers

12.55: Tokaramore

1.00: Blue Valentine & Trooblue

1.15: Somechine

1.30: Keeper Hill

1.35: Knockgraffon & Mercian Prince

1.50: Buveur D’Air

2.05: Dear Sire

2.10: Coningsby

2.25: Terrefort & West Approach

2.35: Brother Tiger

2.40: Vintage Clouds

2.45: Ink Master

3.00: Beat That & Fourth Act

3.05: Petite Jack & Fire Fighting

3.15: Delusionofgrandeur, Missed Approach & Mister Don

3.20: Gallery Exhibition

3.35: Quite By Chance

3.40: Barbara Villers

3.45: Character Onesie & Starplex

4.10: Landin & Colonial Dreams

4.30: Tupolev, Informateur & Dette De Jeu

5.45: Arya Stark & Assertor

6.15: Ripp Orf & Night Castle

6.45: The British Lion

7.15: Ojala & Morning Has Broken

7.45: Poetic Force

8.15: Iconic Belle

 

SATURDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

SANDOWN:

33 races – 15 winning favourites – All 33 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £168.50

Highest dividend: £326.20 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £60.90 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

7 winners—Venetia Williams (9/1, 6/1, 4/1, 3/1**, 6/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 2 runners today: Cepage (1.15) & Yala Enki (3.35)

 

MUSSELBURGH (Six year study):

47 races – 21 winning favourites – 44/47 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £505.25

Highest dividend: £1,939.40 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £37.00 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Paul Nicholls (5/1, 7/4*, 5/4*, 4/6* & 1/2*) – 6 runners today: Coup De Pinceau (12.55), Peter The Mayo Man (1.30), Amour De Nuit (2.05), Maracudja (2.45), Southfield Theatre (3.15) & Wonderful Charm (4.20)

 

WETHERBY:

35 races – 15 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £69.44

Highest dividend: £118.30 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £19.90 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Sue Smith (9/2, 4/1***, 2/1* & 6/4*) – 3 runners today: Trooblue (1.00), Vintage Clouds (2.40)  Informateur (4.30)

 

LINGFIELD (Six year study):

45 races – 15 winning favourites – All 45 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £199.30

Highest dividend: £313.90 (2012) – Lowest dividend: £38.30 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—David Evans (5/1, 5/1 & 11/4) – 3 runners today: Felisa (12.50), Gracious John (2.00) & Mouchee (3.40)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SATURDAY:

SANDOWN:

4.10: Five of the six winners carried a minimum burden of 11-1.  Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals.

Rest of the Sandown meeting covered by my analysis: www.geegeez.co.uk/placepot-pointers-saturday-3rd-february/

MUSSELBURGH:

1.30: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, whilst five of the last nine races have been secured by favourites of one description or another during which time, a top priced winner of 15/2 emerged

2.05: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests.  Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, 9/10 won at a top price of 13/2.

2.45: Only one (7/4) favourite has prevailed via six renewals alongside winners at 22/1 & 18/1 – four of the six gold medallists carried 11-3 or more

4.20: Market leaders come to the gig on a four-timer, following just four renewals thus far

WETHERBY:

1.00: A top priced winner of 9/2 has emerged via four contests (two winning favourites).  Harry Whittington (Blue Valentine) is the only represented trainer to have saddled a winner in the race to date

1.35: Seven-year-olds have won 4/8, whilst two (4/1 & 6/4) successful favourites have been recorded

2.10: Favourites have won four of the seven renewals during which time, the top priced winner won at 6/1

2.40: Seven-year-olds have won six of the eight renewals, with Captain Chaos being this year’s lone representative

3.20: Favourites of one description or another have won three of the last five contests – The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 17/2

3.55: Favourites have won four of the seven contests to date, with a top priced winner of just 11/4 being recorded

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals.  Favourites have won 3/8 during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 10/1

LINGFIELD:

1.25: Both the 7/4 and 1/2 favourites have won their respective races in facile fashion, scoring by an aggregate of ten lengths.

2.00: Four of the twelve declarations represent the five-year-old vintage which has secured four of the last eight renewals.  Eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, statistics which include three successful favourites of one description or another.

2.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the last ten contests whilst favourites have secured 6/11 of the last 11 renewals.  All eleven winners scored at a top price of 11/2.

3.05: Marco Botti (Red Label) has saddled the winners of five of the last six contests when represented!  On the vintage front, five-year-olds again lead the way having secured three of the last four renewals.

KEMPTON – ESSENTIALLY, THIS MEETING DOES NOT HAVE A HISTORY TO WORK ON.

 

SUNDAY – MUSSELBURGH:

1.25: Six of the last nine favourites have won during which time, a top priced 9/1 winner emerged

2.00: We still await the first success market leader following three contests, albeit the biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 4/1

2.35: Six-year-olds have won the last four contests of just five in total

3.10: Two of the three favourites (11/4 & 11/8) have won thus far

TAUNTON:

1.05: Favourites have won seven of the last 10 renewals during which time, a top priced winner emerged at 9/1.  Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests

2.15: We still await the first successful market leader after three renewals, albeit the winners have scored at 5/1 or less thus far.  All three gold medallists carried a maximum burden of 11-4

2.50: Just one favourite has prevailed via six renewals

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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