Apr 07

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 7th

Friday’s school report:

Late MMA WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 11/4) and 5/2 (SP: 6/4) produced a 21/1 double for us at Chelmsford following two horses at Lingfield at 50/1 (returned at 14/1) and 25/1 (12/1) that were only beaten a couple of length at Lingfield. Let’s hope for better luck on Saturday! 

APPROXIMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

5.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.40: STAT ATTACKS FOR KELSO & UTTOXETER – DONE

7.00: MAL’S KELSO ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.25: MASTERS GOLF, UPDATED PRICES/SCORES. + OPINION AT THE HALFWAY STAGE DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 6 ADDITIONS

8.00: FOOTBALL SERVICE – TWO MASSIVE DERBY MATHES LIVE ON SKY + OPINION – DONE

9.00: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

KEMPTON:

1.30: John Betjeman – 6/1 (Generally available)

2.05: Jumeira Bridge – 13/2 – 365/Hills/Sunbets/BetVictor)

2.40: Raucous – 6/1 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

3.15: Smart Call – 3/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.25: One Cool Daddy – 16/1 (Generally available)

5.00: Champagne Champ – 7/1 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

KELSO:

2.25: Treshnish – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.35: Last But Not Least – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/Coral/Boyle)

4.10: Bobbies Diamond – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

4.45: Graystown – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Kelso entry at 8.00:

3.00: Yala Enki – 5/1 (Unibet)

 

UTTOXETER:

3.05: Billy Hills – 7/2 (Generally available)

3.40: Ballyarthur – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.15: Frankly Speaking – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.50: Saint John Henry – 8/1 (Skybet)

Additional Uttoxeter entry at 8.00:

1.55: Akula – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

FAKENHAM:

3.25: Oisjrakh Le Noir – 11/4 (Betfair)

5.10: Monseuir Co – 13/2 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

Additional Fakenham entries at 8.00:

2.15: Ardmayle – 7/1 (PP/Betfred/Tote)

2.50: Royals And Rebels – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betfred/Tote/BetBright)

5.40: Rick & Co – 8/1 (Generally available)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

6.15: Isabella Mayson – 14/1 (365)

7.15: Sayesse – 6/1 (Hills)

7.45: Star Ascending – 13/2 (Hills?Betfair/Sunbets/PP)

8.45: Ebbisham – 11/2 (Hills/Betfair)

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.00:

5.45: Berlios – 9/1 (Betfred/Tote)

 

SATURDAY STATS ATTACKS  (Five year study period unless stated):

KELSO (Four Year trends):

28 races – 10 winning favourites – 26/28 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £411.50

Highest dividend: £1.036.70 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £77.50 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Lucinda Russell (6/1, 5/1, 10/3 & 11/8*) – 3 runners at Kelso on Saturday: Vengeur De Guye (4.10) & Haul Us In & Maraweh (4.45)

UTTOXETER:

37 races – 12 winning favourites – 33/37 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £964.32

Highest dividend: £3,629 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £18.90 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Tim Vaughan (11/2, 4/1* & 9/4* – includes a 26/1 double in 2015) – 1 runner at the track on Saturday: Glimpse Of Gold (1.55)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

14/29—Charlie Appleby (+21) – 1 at Kempton: Dathanna (3.50)

7/15—Jeremy Noseda (2) – 1 at Kempton: La Figlia (3.15)

7/21—Jennie Candlish (+11) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Star Ascending (7.45)

5/13—Ben Haslam (+11) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Porrima (6.15) & Prancing Oscar (8.45)

4/9—Charlie Wallace (+13) – 1 at Kempton: George Dryden (2.05)

4/13—Ian Williams (+12) – 3 at Uttoxeter: Tikk Tock Boom & Secret Legacy (2.30) & Twojayslad (4.50)

4/15—Richard Hannon (+13) – 5 at Kempton: Dixieland (1.30), Tomily (2.05), Peak Princess (3.15), Model (3.50) & Rajaam (4.25)

3/5—David O’Meara (+5) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Stofonic (8.15)

3/4–Tom Symonds (+23) – 1 at Uttoxeter: Frankly Speaking (4.15)

3/5—Micky Hammond (+39) – 1 at Kelso: Caraline (4.10)

Last two runners have won—Charlie Hills (+20) – 1 at Kempton: A Momentofmadness (2.05)

2/3—Richard Fahey (+14) – 3 chances: Boundsy (2.40 Kempton), I Was Only Joking (6.15 Wolverhampton) & Swiss Belle (6.45 Wolverhampton)

2/3—Lucy Wadham (+6) – 5 today – 4 at Fakenham: Gregarious (2.15), Iconic Sky (4.00), Movie Legend (5.10) & Éclair De Guye (5.40) + 1 at Uttoxeter: Easter Gold (5.25)

2/4—David Louhnane (+23) – 1 at Kempton: Gingersdonethelot (1.30)

2/4—John Mackie (+1) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Ebbisham (8.45)

28 runners – offered in race order from the list above:

1.30: Dixieland & Gingersdonethelot

2.05: Tomily, George Dryden & A Momentofmadness

2.15: Gregarious

2.30: Tikk Tock Boom & Secret Legacy

2.40: Boundsy

3.15: Peak Princess & La Figlia

3.50: Model & Dathanna

4.00: Iconic Sky

4.10: Caraline

4.15: Frankly Speaking

4.25: Rajaam

4.50: Twojayslad

5.10: Movie Legend

5.25: Easter Gold

5.40: Éclair De Guye

6.15: I Was Only Joking & Porrima

6.45: Swiss Belle

7.45: Star Ascending

8.15: Stofonic

8.45: Prancing Oscar & Ebbisham

 

US MASTERS GOLF – BEST PRICES AND SCORES AFTER ROUND 2:

4/1–Patrick Reed (Betfred) – 9 under par

9/1–Rory McIlroy (Coral) – 4 under

9/1–Jordan Spieth (Coral) – 4 under

14/1–Henrik Stenson (Betfred) – 5 under

20/1–Dustin Johnson (Coral) – 3 under

28/1–Mark Leishman (888) – 7 under

40/1–Justin Thomas (888) – 3 under

40/1–Justin Rose (Coral) – 2 under

50/1–Bubba Watson (Coral/888) – 2 under

50/1–Rickie Fowler (Coral) – 2 under

66/1 bar these 10 players

Thoughts at the halfway stage: I fully expect the phones to be ringing off the wall in the Coral offices this morning with their 9/1 quotes about the chances of Rory McIlroy & Jordan Spieth.  From an each way perspective at least, the pair look overpriced though in the case of Rory, they might be clinging onto the fact that the popular Irishman could implode, given his ‘all or nothing’ attitude over the next two days.  We shall see if Coral ‘do their pieces’ or if they come up smelling of the collective flowers around the Augusta course…

 

TWO BIG DERBY MATCHES LIVE ON SKY TODAY 

BEST PRICES IN THREE SECTORS – TO WIN – TO LEAD AT HALF TIME & HALF TIME/FULL TIME ODDS:

EVERTON V LIVERPOOL (12.30 KO)

67/20–Everton (Marathon)

11/4–Draw (365/Betfair/Unibet/Betway)

Evens–Liverpool (Hills)

Half time betting: 

19/5–Everton (BetVictor)

23/10–Draw (Boyle)

31/20–Liverpool (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Half time/Full Time odds:

14/5–Everton/Everton (Marathon)

18/1–Everton/Draw (BetVictor)

28/1–Everton/Liverpool (Black Type/BetVictor)

12/1–Draw/Everton (Marathon)

61/10–Draw/Draw (Martathon)

9/2–Draw/Liverpool (Marathon)

45/1–Liverpool/Everton (Marathon)

17/1–Liverpool/Draw (Marathon)

21/10–Liverpool/Liverpool (365/Ladbrokes/PP/Coral)

Thoughts: Not many people would have expected Liverpool to have been even money for this game, especially after trouncing ‘City’ on Wednesday evening.  I expect that Hills are basing their price on Klopp having Tuesday’s match very much in mind, though with Jordan Henderson missing that game through suspension (subsequently available today), Liverpool should still prevail, especially if they take a lead into the interval.

MANCHESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED (5.30 KO)

9/10–City (Betway)

59/20–Draw (Marathon)

17/5–United (BetStars)

Half time betting: 

19/5–City (BetVictor)

13/10–Draw (Boyle)

31/20–United (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Half time/Full time odds:

2/1–City/City (Generally available)

35/2–City/Draw (Marathon)

50/1–City/United (Black Type)

17/4–Draw/City (BetVictor)

11/2–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

12/1–Draw/United (Marathion)

25/1–United/City (Generally available)

35/2–United/Draw (Marathon)

17/2–United/United (Marathon)

Thoughts: If ever Jose had a chance to finally win over the United fans, it would be to go into this match with a gung-ho attitude as with City’s mind on Tuesday evening (don’t let anyone convince you that is not going to be the case), the home team could be there for the taking.  Will that Happen?  No!  13/10 about the match being level at half time therefore looks the call, with Boylesports standing out from the crowd at that price – and then some!

 

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