Jun 10

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 10th

Saturday’s school report:

5 MMA WINNERS yesterday at 8/1 (retuned at 11/2), 9/2 (11/4), 10/3 (13/8*), 11/4 (7/4) & 11/4 (9/4). Four second placed horses denied us a golden day, though a placed horse at 50/1 (12/1) gained us more revenue.

My Two Year Old notes service provided us with three winners, including a 13/2 chance, so the day was not all bad by any means.

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:            

6.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.00: MAL’S GOODWOOD ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.30: SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

7.45: TWO YEAR OLD NOTES – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 5 ADDITIONS

11.30: MAL’S WORLD CUP VIEWPOINT – TAKE 6! (Previous offerings will sit below today’s article) – DONE

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

GOODWOOD:

2.00: Ateem – 9/1 (Skybet & PP)

3.10: Two to consider: Solesmes – 11/2 (Betfair/PP/888/BetVictor) & Ever Rock – 9/1 (Sunbets)

3.45: Imphal – 7/2 (Generally available)

4.55: Four White Socks – 11/4 (Generally available)

Additional Goodwood entries at 8.00:

2.35: See Of Rome – 6/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

4.20: Zac Brown – 4/1 (Generally available)

5.30: Seriff – 40/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

1.45: Moveonup – 9/2 (Generally available)

255: Starboy – 9/1 (365/Sunbets/BetVictor)

3.30: Jet Streaming – 9/1 (Generally available)

4.05: Erissimus Maximus – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Nottingham entries at 8.00:

5.15: Two to consider: Cray – 6/1 (Generally available) & Paddys Runner – 16/1 (Hills)

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS:

GOODWOOD:

41 races – 18 winning favourites – 40/41 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Goodwood this season:

5/13—Mark Johnston (4/1*, 4/1, 11/4*, 9/4* & 5/4*) – 1 runner: Austin Powers (5.30)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

43 races – 16 winning favourites – 39/43 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer at Nottingham this season:

2/5—William Haggas (4/1 & 10/11) – 1 runner today: Maid To Remember (3.30)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

1.45 Nottingham: 

Silvestre De Sousa could be in for a good day at Nottingham as most of his rides at the track have been the subject of overnight support.  The popular pilot starts his day aboard Moveonup for Gay Kelleway, with this Zebedee colt having run really well on debut at Goodwood, despite meeting traffic problems up the near rail at around the halfway mark.  Closing in on Mick Channon’s standard bearer Big Boots at the line, a repetition of that effort might be all that is needed to land this event, notwithstanding any improvment which might be lurking under the saddle.  The negative factor is that Gay has yet to train a juvenile winner here at Nottingham via sixteen previous opportunities in the past though that said, Silvestre has been aboard when she has secured a couple of two-year-old winners in recent years.

3.10 Goodwood:

Mick Channon was saying earlier in the year that he was hopeful of Gregorian making into a half decent first season sire and with two winners already on the board, the Clodovil representative could prove Mick right.  Having lots of Clodovil stock in his yard down the years, Mick has this ‘line’ covered relating to all they might achieve and Solesmes has not started her career too badly at all.  Mick’s March foal was doing all her best work late doors at Beverley the last day having been drawn out wide and with the trainer having won both the renewals of this event to date, the hat hat rick could be on the cards.  Whatever happens today, experience tells me that Solesmes will win a race this season, as Mick would have had lots of potential runners for this event (he is a fellow trend lover) which earmarks John Egan’s mount as a future gold medallist.

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – 4 DAYS & COUNTING!

TAKE 6

Best prices on offer for the World Cup now that the meaningless friendlies are out of the way – with Mal’s comments below each team in italics!

9/2—Brazil (Generally available – 4/1 elsewhere)

No value whatsoever – 60 years since Brazil won in Europe.  The draw suggests Belgium in the Q/F and France in the semis – then Germany – that’s tough

5/1—Germany (Generally available – 9/2 elsewhere)

Still the team to beat from my perspective – ignore the friendly results. The negative aspect is that no team have defended their crown successfully since 1962

13/2—France (Generally available – 6/1 elsewhere)

Value for money in their own continent compared to Brazil.  France only scored 18 goals when qualifying however – whereby they have to raise their game

13/2—Spain (Coral & Betfred – as short as 5/1 with Sunbets)

Same comment as for France though their consistent pedigree is questionable. They have to overcome the shock of going out at the Group Stage 4 years ago

10/1—Argentina (Generally available – as short as 17/2 with Black Type)

Never as potent away from South America and this year is not expected to be any different.  Belgium and Argentina would be the other way around in the betting from my viewpoint

11/1—Belgium (Generally available – 10/1 elsewhere)

Compared to France, Belgium scored 43 goals in their group – if two or three players can raise their game they could be a real threat to any team

18/1—England (18/1 Generally available – only 14/1 with Ladbrokes)

A young team is one of the few positive factors I can offer.  The back four/five (including the goalkeepers) worry the life out of me.  Q/F exit at best

27/1—Portugal (Unibet – as short as 20/1 with Black Type)

Knocked out in three of their last six W/C tournaments at the Group Stage, the semi-finalists in 1966 & 2006 need a team game attitude aside from Christiano

31/1—Uruguay (Unibet & 888 – as short as 20/1 with 18/1 with Black Type)

These odds might not last long for the double winners and three time semi-finalists with a great draw in Group A – I was on at 40/1 – missed the 50’s!

40/1—Croatia (Skybet & Betfair – only 28/1 with Hills)

Another value for money each way option for the third placed side 20 years ago.  Luca Modric remains one of the underrated players in the world for me

45/1—Colombia (Bet Stars – as short as 33/1 in places)

Pressure is the name of the game against Columbia whereby they need a flying start to give them confidence – Japan offer that opportunity in their first game

50/1—Russia (Generally available – 40/1 elsewhere)

Since losing the USSR tag, Russia have been eliminated at the Group Stage in all three tournaments.  Putin could turn up in midfield….

85/1—Poland (Bet Stars – only 33/1 with Black Type)

Bizarre differential in price options is difficult to fathom and somewhere between the two (60/1) would be about right from my viewpoint

100/1 Bar – the pick of which are as follows:

125/1—Denmark (Coral & Betfred)

The odds are an insult to Denmark who should stroll into the round of 16 and if gaining confidence from results in the Group Stage, they could surprise!

300/1—Iceland (Betfair)

Can someone tell me how England are 18/1 and Iceland 16 times+ that price? Okay, they may crash out at the first stage but then again, not many outsiders are playing the likes of Argentina and Croatia for openers

 

Previous World Cup articles:

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much as Harry has obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only qualfied in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or are even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have fallen in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

 

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

 

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 TAKE 2

‘Big six’ teams (bowing to pressure I’ve included England!) – head to head records in World Cup matches (alphabetical order):

90 minutes play – Germany includes previous names in the competition.

ARGENTINA:

Brazil: Played 4:  won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 3/5

England: Played 5: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/8

France: Played 2: won both games – G/D: 3/1

Germany: Played 7: won 1 – drew 3 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/11

Spain: Played: 1: won the match – G/D: 2/1

Stats: Played: 19: won 6 – drew 5 – lost 8 – G/D: 18/26

 

BRAZIL:

Argentina: Played 4:  won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/3

England: Played 4:  won 3 & drew 1 – G/D: 6/2

France: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 6/7

Germany: Played 2: won 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 3/7

Spain: Played: 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 10/5

Stats: Played: 19: won 10 – drew 4 – lost 5 – G/D: 30/24

 

ENGLAND:

Argentina: Played 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 8/5

Brazil: Played 4: drew 1 & lost 3 – G/D: 2/6

France: Played 2: won both matches – G/D: 5/1

Germany: Played 5: drew 4 & lost 1 – G/D: 6/9

Spain: Played 2: drew 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 0/1

Stats: Played: 18 – won 5 – drew 7 – lost 6 – G/D: 21/22

 

FRANCE:

Argentina: Played 2: lost both games – G.D: 1/3

Brazil: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/6

England: Played 2 – lost both games – G/D: 1/5

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 1 – won the match – G/D: 3-1

Stats: Played 13: won 4 – drew 2 – lost 7 – G/D: 19/22

 

GERMANY:

Argentina: Played 7: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 1 – G/D: 11/5

Brazil: Played 2: won 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 7/3

England: Played 5: won 1 & drew 4 – G/D: 9/6

France: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/4

Stats: Played 22: won 9 – drew 9 – lost 4 – G/D: 39/25

 

SPAIN:

Argentina: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/2

Brazil: Played 5: – won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/10

England: Played 2: won 1 & drew 1 – G/D: 1-0

France: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/3

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 4/5

Stats: Played 13: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 7 – G/D: 12/20

 

TAKE 3:

There is no more certain scenario when assessing odds at the World Cup finals that in one sector of the games, the prices on offer are going to shift dramatically – in all probability.

The last set of games in the Group stage offer us a chance to use our intellect in assessing how the previous two games for each team will have developed.

You will find the best prices (at the time of writing) for all 16 games played at the final stage of the Group matches – whilst offering odds for the ‘big match’ of the group in each case, if there is one on offer.

 

GROUP ‘A’ – Monday June 25th – 3.00 Kick off – matches played at the same time:

8/11—Egypt (Skybet/Betfair)

11/4—Draw (Betfair)

5/1—Saudi Arabia (Marathon)

 

17/10—Uruguay (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

2/1—Russia (Generally available)

This is the potential crunch match of the group

 

GROUP ‘B’ – Monday June 25th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/11—Portugal (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Iran (Unibet)

4/11—Spain (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Morocco (Sportingbet)

 

The big game of Group B – Friday 15th – 7.00 Kick off:

10/11—Spain (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (Generally available)

37/10—Portugal (Bet Stars)

 

GROUP ‘C’ – Tuesday 26th June – 3.00 Kick off:

6/5—Peru (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

13/5—Australia (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

3/5—France (Marathon)

29/10—Draw (Betfair)

11/2—Denmark (Betfair)

This is the most important match in the group

 

GROUP ‘D’ – Tuesday 26th June – 7.00 Kick off:

Evens—Croatia (Marathon)

13/5—Draw (Betfair)

4/1—Iceland (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

8/13—Argentina (Betfair)

10/3—Draw (Hills)

7/1—Nigeria (365 – as short as 9/2 elsewhere)

 

The big game of Group D – Thursday 21st – 7.00 Kick off:

19/20—Argentina (Betfair)

13/5—Draw (888)

4/1—Croatia (Bet Stars – odds look a tad too big)

 

GROUP ‘E’ – Wednesday June 27th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/9—Brazil (Hills)

4/1—Draw (Skybet/365)

17/2—Serbia (Bet Stars)

 

11/12—Switzerland (Betfair/188)

53/20—Draw (Marathon)

19/5—Costa Rica (Unibet – odds look big enough)

 

GROUP ‘F’ – Wednesday June 27th – 3.00 Kick off:

2/7—Germany (Skybet/Bet Stars/BetBright)

5/1—Draw (Betfair)

12/1—South Korea (Betfair/Sportingbet)

 

13/8—Mexico (Betfair)

11/5—Draw (Unibet/Betfair)

11/5—Sweden (Unibet)

This is arguably the big match in the group

 

GROUP ‘G’ – Thursday June 28th – 7.00 Kick off:

8/5—Belgium (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Marathon)

21/10—England (Betfair)

This is the crunch match in the group

 

7/5—Tunisia (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

12/5—Panama (Skybet)

 

GROUP ‘H’ – Thursday June 28th – 3.00 Kick off:

19/20—Poland (Hills)

127/50—Draw (Marathon)

18/5—Japan (Betfair)

 

Evens—Colombia (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

7/2—Senegal (Marathon)

 

The big game of Group H – Sunday 4th – 7.00 Kick off:

13/8—Colombia (Betfair)

23/10—Draw (188)

21/10—Poland (Marathon)

 

Much depends on the accuracy of how you predict the results of the earlier games in the groups but if can get those games right – you should be able to make money on these four days of the tournament, even if the later stages are not so beneficial!

 

TAKE 4:

I thought I would take you on a whistle stop tour of some stats and facts before looking at the number of goals scored in tournaments during the last five tournaments.

To add some heartache to England supporters; digest this little gem before believing that I have been too quick to write off our chances this year.

Our manager has taken control of just one club in his career – Middlesbrough, who were relegated.

Gareth’s last tournament in charge in International terms was the 2016 Under 21 competition – when we were knocked out at the group stage – hardly room to feel over confident eh?

 

Brazil are 9/2 joint favourites with plenty of bookmakers but before diving in both feet, consider that Brazil have not won the World Cup in Europe since 1958.

Consider further that if you believe that the tournament will run to ‘form’ via bookmakers odds for teams to reach the final (projected favourites winning each match), Brazil are ‘scheduled’ to meet Germany in the final and having been humiliated in their own back yard by those opponents just four years ago, I doubt that Brazil would be brimming with confidence of beating Europe’s proven elite team down the years.

Indeed, you could argue (subject to results from previous rounds in this year’s competition) that Brazil might be available at 2/1 to lift the trophy should they reach the final (Germany at 2/5 perhaps), so why on earth would you want to take 9/2 about Brazil before the tournament has begun?

 

Talking of Germany, the last time the German team failed to win their opening group was back in Mexico in 1986.  The last time they were knocked out at the opening stage of the competition was forty years ago.

If we perm both Germany and Brazil together, it’s a startling fact that either/or both teams have reached every World Cup semi-final since…..1934!

Reflecting on Germany one last time, they have reached the semi-final in 13/18 World Cup tournaments in which they have been represented.

The sobering stat against the four time winners is that the last team to successfully defend their trophy was Brazil back in 1962.  To get back into positive mode however, I’m reminding myself that Germany have appeared in eight finals, more than any other nation.

 

If you are looking to back games producing lots of goals – think again.

By all means do so in the 3rd/4th play-off match, as at least three goals have been scored in all five matches since 1998.  Consider that stat against the one occasion when the final produced three goals during the study period.

 

The following stats relate to each stage during the last five finals.

68/240 games in the group stages produced less than two goals (28.3%)

14/40 matches produced less than two goals in the ‘Round of 16’ (35.0%)

Only 10/20 quarter final matches produced two goals or more (50.0%)

6/10 semi-finals produced less than two goals (60.0%)

As you can see, the further the tournament progresses, the more the goals ‘dry up’!

 

Create friendly banter with your friends during the forthcoming World Cup by all means as it is all part of the fun but when you’re betting, don’t ignore the facts!

 

TAKE 5:

One of the most popular bets at the World Cup will be ‘both teams to score’ (or not), particularly in the Group Stage matches were there are a minimum of three matches a day after the opening match between Russia and Saudi Arabia next Thursday.

Potential investors will have ample opportunity of perming their selections, whilst big stake punters can play the short prices on offer.

Either way, this has become one of the most popular bets in recent years, whereby I thought I should throw some World Cup (final competition) at you from recent tournaments.

TOURNAMENT STATS FOR THE LAST FIVE FINAL STAGES OF THE COMPETITION:

Both teams scoring (not scoring in brackets):

48% of matches in the group stage (52%)

45% in ‘Round 16’ of the tournament (55%)

35% in the quarter-finals (65%)

40% in the semi-finals (60%)

80% in the 3rd/4th match play-offs (20%)

20% in the final (80%)

In 2014 (for comparisons) the results were as follows:

56% of matches in the group stage (44%)

38% in ‘Round 16’ of the tournament (62%)

25% in the quarter-finals (75%)

50% in the semi-finals (50%)

0% in the 3rd/4th match play-off (100%)

0% in the final (100%)

 

As far as yellow & red card scenarios go for the up-coming tournament – consider this fact. 

24/36 referees are officiating at their first tournament finals – a sure sign that nerves will play a part whereby for the opening round of matches at least, several bookings will be the order of the day I’ll wager and more than the average number of red cards shown – in all probability.

Be lucky but as always – be aware!

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