Mar 11

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 11th

MONDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated)

*Point of order: Chris Gordon saddled runners on this corresponding day last year, with all five winning which created a 934/1 accumulator.  I had alerted readers that morning that Chris should be kept in mind by punters that day!

PLUMPTON:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £310.06

Highest dividend: £1,354.10 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £4.20 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Chris Gordon (25/1, 4/1, 11/4, 5/2* & 5/4*) – 4 runners today: Ramore Will (2.50), Ballyleigue Bay (3.20), Loves Destination & King Knut (4.50)

 

STRATFORD (Three year study period – Meetings abandoned in 2016 & 2013):

20 races – 4 winning favourites – 17/20 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £108.07

Highest dividend: £125.30 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £98.60 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

2 winners—(Chris Gordon (5/1 & 11/8*) – 1 runner today: Baddesley Prince (5.00)

 

CHELMSFORD (Three year study):

18 races – 7 winning favourites – 17/18 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £95.90

Highest dividend: £187.10 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £43.60 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

2 winners—Stuart Williams (9/2 twice) – 1 runner today: Able Jack (6.45)

 

Saturday’s school report:

I hope a few of you were on yesterday’s Imperial Cup winner at 25/1 or at least as a saver, alongside a few of the other MMA winners which scored at 13/2, 6/1 & 5/1.  We were well ahead of the game (no change) as the winners were returned at 20/1, 5/2, 9/2 & 9/4 respectively.

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:

6.00: MMA service which will be updated at 9.30 with information on prices and additions, if and where relevant – DONE

7.15: Football stats, facts and best prices for today’s two Premier matches which are televised live this afternoon – DONE

9.30: MMA Update (Allowing time for the result of the Warwick inspection to be known) – DONE

10.30: In form trainers – DONE

11.00: Sunday Stat Attack- DONE

12.00: Cheltenham Feature and latest news – DONE

13.30: Monday Stat Attack (‘Ahead of the Game’)

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated later this morning with additions if/where relevant:

*Speculative fayre in the main this morning – small stakes advised

 

MARKET RASEN:

2.00: Cash To Ash – 20/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 14/1

3.05: Yourholidayisover – 8/1 (Skybet/Berfred/PP) – NOW 13/2

3.35: The Ogle Gogle Man – 11/2 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 3/1

4.10: Skip The Cuddles – 10/1 (365) – NOW 7/1

4.40: Pennywell – 8/1 (365) – NOW 15/2

5.10: Status Quo – 14/1  (Betfair/PP) – NOW 9/1

Additional Market Rasen entries at 9.30:

NONE

 

WARWICK:

2.50: Marienstar – 13/2 (Betfair) – NON RUNNER

3.25: Now McGinty – 14/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 8/1

3.55: Talk Of The South – 5/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 3/1

4.30: Western Morning – 7/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 7/2

Additional Warwick entry at 9.30:

5.00: Barrakilla – 10/11 (Betfred/Tote)

 

TRAINERS WHO HAVE BEEN IN FORM FOR A WHILE NOW WHO HAD WINNERS ON SATURDAY – WITH RUNNERS TODAY:

12/35: Henry Daly (+32) – 2 chances: Vice Et Vertu (3.55 Market Rasen) & Head To The Stars (4.10 Warwick)

7/19—Dr Richard Newland (+6) – 1 at Warwick: Aaron Lad (4.10)

5/13—Peter Bowen (+22) – 2 today: Hillary View (3.25 Warwick) & What A Diva (4.40 Market Rasen)

2/3—Nigel Twsiton-Davies (+22) – 4 runners: Muckle Roe (3.55 Warwick), Supakalanistic (4.10 Market Rasen), Lagavara (4.40 Market Rasen) & Milanstorm (5.30 Warwick)

 

SUNDAY Stat Attack (Five year study period unless stated)

MARKET RASEN:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – All 35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £356.00

Highest dividend: £763.20 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £16.70 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Sue Smith (10/3, 9/4 & 9/4* = 44/1 treble last year) – 3 runners today: Iskabeg Lane (3.35), Fklemerina (4.40) & Minella Fiveo (5.10)

WARWICK:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/34 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £3,114.54

Highest dividend: £8,242.80 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £51.30 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—(9/1, 8/1, 11/4*, 2/1, 6/4* & 11/10* – includes a 111/1 treble last year and a 21/1 double in 2014) – 2 runner today: Cloudy Glen (2.20) & Rigadin De Beauchene (3.55)

 

TRAINERS WHO HAVE SADDLED PLACED HORSES AT THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS WHICH WERE RETURNED AT 16/1 OR MORE.

Nearly all punters can recall trainers who have saddled winners at fancy prices but placed horses (no matter how well they pay) are forgotten like yesterday’s fish n chip wrappers as the old saying goes.  Investors forget to their potential cost (particularly from a Placepot perspective) whereby I am offering the relevant stats in total and then in race by race order form – for your convenience!

THURSDAY:

Totals (trainers with more than one relevant placed horse at 16/1 or more):

5—Alan King (66/1, 50/1, 33/1, & 20/1 twice)

3—Nicky Henderson (33/1, 18/1 & 16/1)

2—Paul Nicholls (40/1 & 20/1)

2—Venetia Williams (40/1 & 33/1)

1 each for: Nigel Twiston-Davies (100/1), Harry Fry (50/1), Tim Easterby (33/1), Neil King (33/1), Dr Richard Newland (33/1), Richard Rowe (33/1), Gordon Elliott (28/1), Matthew J Smith (25/1), Tony Martin (20/1), Tim Vaughan (20/1), Mick Channon (16/1), Charlie Longsdon (16/1), Fergal O’Brien (16/1) & Ben Pauling (16/1)

Race by race (remember – these stats relate to ‘overlooked’ placed horses):

 ‘JLT’ (1.30):

Nigel Twiston-Davies (100/1) & Alan King (33/1)

 

Pertempts (2.10):

2—Alan King (66/1 & 20/1)

1 each for: Harry Fry (50/1), Tim Easterby (33/1), Dr Richard Newland (33/1), Paul Nicholls (20/1) & Fergal O’Brien (16/1)

 

Ryanair Chase (2.50):

Venetia Williams (40/1) & Nicky Henderson (18/1)

 

Stayers Hurdle (3.30):

1 each for: Paul Nicholls (40/1), Nicky Henderson (33/1) & Neil King (33/1)

 

‘Plate’ (4.10):

1 each for: Richard Rowe (33/1), Venetia Williams (33/1), Matthew J Smith (25/1) & Tim Vaughan (20/1)

 

‘Mares Novice Hurdle’ (4.50):

Only two renewals to date; Alan King has secured two ‘qualifiers’ at 50/1 & 20/1) thus far

 

Kim Muir (5.30):

1 each for: Gordon Elliott (28/1), Tony Martin (20/1) and four trainers with 16/1 chances, namely Mick Channon, Nicky Henderson, Charlie Longsdon & Ben Pauling

 

These stats should give you an indication of which races could put you ‘ahead of the game’ particularly from a Placepot perspective.

I will offer Friday’s findings tomorrow (Monday).

 

 

 

FOOTBALL – PREMIER LEAGUE STATS (AND BEST PRICES ON LIVE GAMES) FOR SUNDAY

*Point of Order – John Motson will be offering his last live commentary on this match for the BBC (5Live) this afternoon.

Arsenal v Watford (1.30 – Live on Sky – see odds below)

9 matches – Arsenal: 7 wins – No draws – Watford: 2 wins – G/D: 21-8

Matches at Arsenal:

Played: 4

Arsenal—3 wins – No games drawn – 1 win for Watford – G/D: 9/2

Best prices:

8/15–Arsenal (10Bet)

4/1—Draw (Betfair/365)

13/2—Watford (365)

Half time betting:

Evens—Arsenal (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8/5—Draw (365)

27/5—Watford (Marathon)

 

Bournemouth v Tottenham (4.00 – Live on Sky – see odds below)

5 matches – Bournemouth: No wins – 1 draws – Tottenham: 4 wins – G/D: 1-13

Matches at Bournemouth:

Played: 4

Bournemouth—No wins – 1 game drawn – 1 win for Tottenham – G/D: 1/5

Best prices:

28/5–Bournemouth (Marathon)

15/4—Draw (Marathon)

11/20—Tottenham (365/Betway)

Half time betting:

51/10—Bournemouth (Marathon)

27/20—Draw (Ladbrokes/Coral)

21/20—Tottenham (Ladbrokes/Hills/Coral)

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