May 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 13th

Saturday’s school report:

As tweeted literally in the dead of night: 8 WINNERS on Saturday – 11/1 (returned at the same price) – 11/1 (SP: 6/1) – 7/1 (7/2*) – 13/2 (7/2) – 5/1 (12/5) – 5/1 (4/1) – 5/1 (10/3) – 5/1 (12/5) – 7/2 (11/4*)

I guess it was a general member of the public who tweeted overnight to ask for my profit/loss accounts for April.

S/he (Chris?) might have thought my reply was a ‘cop out’ when I suggested that my accounts were mine and his/hers were his/hers but either way, it was a statement of fact.

I don’t offer the morning prices as a prerogative for you to back each and every one of them – that’s (rightly) your decision.  If you back none/one/five/ten or more – that’s your decision.

Equally when a horse is backed off the boards, as was the case of William H Bonney yesterday which I put up at 25/1 in the dead of night (sent off at 10’s), it’s your decision whether you lay off the bet at shorter odds if you backed Alan King’s representative at the price I quoted.

I’m not here to tell you what to back and/or when you should ‘cash out’ because if I did, I would charge a lot more for the service – I would be putting my neck on the line!

I charge an average (dependent upon which service you buy) of 40p a day to tell you which horses are likely to be backed, alongside other ‘pointers’ along the way, usually associated in the trainer sector.  That will be the case again from Wednesday (in time for York) when I have fully recovered (hopefully) from recent health issues.

I’m here getting up on your behalf to seek out an ‘edge’ where I can, as opposed to the two main ‘trade press’ sites who man their offices several hours later, as late as 9.00 am on weekends/Bank holidays!  By the time they have drunk coffee and got their act together, real insight does not emerge on occasions until two or three hours hours before the first race on occasions – less than that during the winter!

I am at my desk most mornings by 3.30 – that’s what I offer.  No more, no less – the rest is up to you.  Best of luck today guys and as always, sincere thanks for ‘following’!

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:        

3.00: WORLD CUP OFFERINGS (the tournament starts in one month as of tomorrow) – For new ‘followers’ or those who missed the articles first time around – DONE

4.30: MAL’S PLUMPTON ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 1 ADDITION

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

LUDLOW:

2.00: Ballinahinch – 6/1 (Paddy Power)

3.05: Two to consider: Cry Wolf – 16/1 (Betfair/PP/Unibet) & Countinthemiddle – 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.35: Workbench – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.10: Bertimont – 8/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Hills/Coral)

4.40: Lygon Rock – 11/4 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

5.10: Alph – Evens (Ladbrokes)

Additional Ludlow entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

PLUMPTON:

2.45: Keep To The Beat – 20/1 (Hills)

3.50: Makethefifference – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.25: Mildean Silva – 18/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Plumpton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

2.25: Grow Nasa Grow – 14/1 (365)

3.00: Ulis De Vassy – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.05: Imperial Eloquence – 11/2 (Betfair)

5.35: Barrocco – 4/1 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

Additional Southwell entry at 8.00:

5.05: The Flame – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE ONE 

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much as Harry has obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only qualfied in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or are even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have fallen in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE TWO!

‘Big six’ teams (bowing to pressure I’ve included England!) – head to head records in World Cup matches (alphabetical order):

90 minutes play – Germany includes previous ‘titles’ (West/East) in the competition.

ARGENTINA:

Brazil: Played 4:  won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 3/5

England: Played 5: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/8

France: Played 2: won both games – G/D: 3/1

Germany: Played 7: won 1 – drew 3 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/11

Spain: Played: 1: won the match – G/D: 2/1

Stats: Played: 19: won 6 – drew 5 – lost 8 – G/D: 18/26

 

BRAZIL:

Argentina: Played 4:  won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/3

England: Played 4:  won 3 & drew 1 – G/D: 6/2

France: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 6/7

Germany: Played 2: won 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 3/7

Spain: Played: 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 10/5

Stats: Played: 19: won 10 – drew 4 – lost 5 – G/D: 30/24

 

ENGLAND:

Argentina: Played 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 8/5

Brazil: Played 4: drew 1 & lost 3 – G/D: 2/6

France: Played 2: won both matches – G/D: 5/1

Germany: Played 5: drew 4 & lost 1 – G/D: 6/9

Spain: Played 2: drew 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 0/1

Stats: Played: 18 – won 5 – drew 7 – lost 6 – G/D: 21/22

 

FRANCE:

Argentina: Played 2: lost both games – G.D: 1/3

Brazil: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/6

England: Played 2 – lost both games – G/D: 1/5

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 1 – won the match – G/D: 3-1

Stats: Played 13: won 4 – drew 2 – lost 7 – G/D: 19/22

 

GERMANY:

Argentina: Played 7: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 1 – G/D: 11/5

Brazil: Played 2: won 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 7/3

England: Played 5: won 1 & drew 4 – G/D: 9/6

France: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/4

Stats: Played 22: won 9 – drew 9 – lost 4 – G/D: 39/25

 

SPAIN:

Argentina: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/2

Brazil: Played 5: – won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/10

England: Played 2: won 1 & drew 1 – G/D: 1-0

France: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/3

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 4/5

Stats: Played 13: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 7 – G/D: 12/20

 

 

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