Jun 17

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 17th

MAL BOYLE STATS – SUNDAY 17TH JUNE

Saturday’s school report:

Good football results for us on Saturday (see my Twitter page), whilst 4 MMA WINNERS at 16/1 (returned at 20/1), 8/1 (5/1) 13/2 (2/1) & 15/8 (11/8) just about kept the wolf from the door, given my warning about keeping stakes low on ‘Timeform Day’!

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:

4.15: SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

4.30: 5 YEAR CORRESPONDING RESULTS/STATS FOR SALISBURY & DONCASTER – DONE

5.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.30: MAL’S SALISBURY ANALYSIS (via my Twitter page – includes a jog down memory lane!) – DONE

6.40: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

7.45: WORLD CUP STATS – INLCUDES PRICE UPDATES OURIGHT/GROUPS – DONE

8.00: ROYAL ASCOT – 7 YEAR STUDY OF TRAINER’S JUVENILE STATS (COLLECTIVE AND RACE BY RACE) – DONE

 

  • ROYAL ASCOT PLACEPOTMANIA WILL BREAK OUT TOMORROW FOR WHICH THERE IS NO KNOWN CURE – 7 YEAR STATS ON BRITAIN’S FAVOURITE BET AT THE MAJOR MEETINGS!

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

  • There is no need for an 8.00 update this morning as all 14 races have been covered, though they come with a government health warning as we are still suffering from ‘Royal Ascot build up’ whereby stakes should be kept on the low side.
  • A great number of the leading trainers will have their minds on races later in the week, whilst the liquidity was understandably low on the exchanges (more than ever on a Sunday) which makes everything that little bit less certain.

DONCASTER:

2.10: Mon Beau Visage – 10/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

2.40: Quduraat – 9/2 (PP)

3.10: Drifting Star – 20/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.40: Boy In The Bar – 5/1 (365/Skybet/Betway/BetVictor)

4.10: Dawn Dancer – 7/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

4.40: Rich Identity – 6/1 (Marathon/Betfair)

5.10: Place Des Vosges – 3/1 (Generally available)

SALISBURY:

2.25: Chikoko Trail – 7/1 (Marathon)

2.55: Fond Vert – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.25: Wohileh – 13/2 (365/Sunbets/BetVictor)

3.55: Buckingham – 13/2 (Hills)

4.25: Cardsharp – 7/2 (Marathon/888)

4.55: Blanchefleur – 11/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

5.25: Two horses to consider: Open Wide – 9/2 (Betfair/PP) & Grey Gallon – 16/1 (365)

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS:

DONCASTER:

60 races – 20 winning favourite – 51/60 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Doncaster this season:

6/11—Roger Varian (Prices ranging between 10/11* & 4/1**) – 3 runners: Quduraat (2.40), Equitation (3.40) & Rich Identity (4.40)

 

SALISBURY:

36 races – 9 winning favourite – 33/36 winners scored at a top price of 16/1

Leading trainers at Salisbury this season:

4/13—Mick Channon (6/1, 5/1, 7/2 & 15/8*) – 1 runner: Chikoko Trail (2.25)

4/15—Richard Hannon (6/1, 3/1**, 6/5* & 2/13*) – 7 runners: Wicked Sea (2.25), Sherzy Boy (2.55), Critical Data, Magical Wish & St Ouen (3.55) & Hesterya & Blanchefleur (4.55)

 

5 YEAR CORRESPONDING STATS FOR TODAY’S MEETINGS:

DONCASTER:

35 races – 14 winning favourite – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Doncaster during the study period:

Six trainers won with two horses during the period (none managed a third gold medallist) and the pick of the sextet today could prove to be Marco Botti (7/1 & 4/1*) who saddles one runner on the card, namely Suprematism (4.10)

 

SALISBURY:

37 races – 14 winning favourite – 33/37 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainers at Salisbury during the period:

6 winners—‘Team Hannon’ (18/1, 6/1, 4/1, 5/6*, 10/11* & 4/7*) – 7 runners: Wicked Sea (2.25), Sherzy Boy (2.55), Critical Data, Magical Wish & St Ouen (3.55) & Hesterya & Blanchefleur (4.55)

5 winners—Andrew Balding (6/1, 3/1*, 2/1*, 15/8* & 8/11*) – 3 runners: Unbridled Spirit (2.25), Dancing Star (4.25) & Great Shot Sam (4.55)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

2.40 Doncaster: 

Money for Camelot Rakti would be interesting as James Tate’s winners are invariably well backed though that said, the Camelot filly is freely available at a double figure price at the time of writing for those that want to invest in a horse which was always going to wait for a seven furlong contest to materialise.  Quduraat and Look Around are others to consider.

3.55 Salisbury:

Well played to the Salisbury executive for pinning the great name of Peter Walwyn to this event, a decision that would have made racegoers out here in the west-country particularly happy.  Peter’s finest hours were courtesy of his Epsom Derby and ‘King George & Queen Elizabeth’ winner Grundy of course, forever remembered in a great duel with Bustino in 1975. His other victories included the Dewhurst and the Irish Derby in a scintillating career during which Peter was as ever, humble to the last. Only five horses at that time had ever received a higher rating going into his three-year-old career which is probably worth recalling as much as ‘the race of the century’ as the Ascot event was called at the time.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it would be appropriate if Sir Michael Stoue (KHAFOOQ) won this event, given that Michael was two years into his training career when Grundy made his first appearance on a racecourse.  This is only Michael’s fourth juvenile runner of the season however (no winners to date), whereby a watching (Placepot) brief is as far as we might support the Kodiac representative this afternoon.  For the record, Michael has saddled a dozen two-year-old winners at this venue from 100 representatives down the years. From a win perspective, Buckingham and Magical Wish are preferred.  Don’t be in too much of a hurry to ignore Cruck Railie (a 33/1 chance at the time of writing) as Ralph Beckett’s well touted raider can only improve on the effort shown on the first day at school.

 

RECORD OF TRAINERS IN THE RELEVANT 42 JUVENILE RACES AT ROYAL ASCOT BETWEEN 2011 & 2017 (INCLUSIVE):

10 winners—Aidan O’Brien (Includes five winning favourites & winners at 20/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1 & 5/1) 

+ 9 placed runners (Prices ranging between 7/4* & 14/1)

4 winners: Wesley A Ward (4/1, 7/2*, 5/2* & 2/1*)

+ 3 Placed (16/1, 7/1 & 10/11*)

3 winners: John Gosden (20/1, 10/1 & 7/4*)

+ 1 placed (7/2)

2 winners—Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1*)

+ 7 placed (between 11/8* & 14/1

2 winners—Kevin Ryan (14/1 & 6/1)

+ 3 placed (14/1, 12/1 & 17/2)

2—winners—Clive Cox (5/1 & 4/1)

+ mention in despatches for Mark Johnston (one 6/1 winner & five placed horses at 20/1, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1 & 8/1) & the relatively new trainer Charlie Appleby, who saddled the winner (16/1) and runner up (12/1) in last year’s ‘Windsor Castle’.

Race by race – Best records during the seven year study period:

Coventry Stakes (Tuesday):

3 winners—Aidan O’Brien (20/1, 4/1 & 13/8*)

Windsor Castle Stakes (Tuesday):

7 different trainers

Queen Mary Stakes (Wednesday):

2 winners—Wesley A Ward (5/2* & 2/1*)

Norfolk Stakes (Thursday):

2 winners—Aidan O’Brien (14/1 & 12/1)

Albany Stakes (Friday):

7 different trainers

Chesham Stakes (Saturday):

3 winners—Aidan O’Brien (5/2*, 11/8* & 10/11*)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

SERBIA V COSTA RICA – 1pm kick off

49/50—Serbia (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (365/Betfair/Unibet/Betfred)

9/2–Costa Rica (Betfred)

OPINION: Serbia are officially the weakest European side in the competition according to FIFA.  Whether that makes them a poor bet at an odds on price remains to be seen.

Half time betting:

7/4—Serbia (Ladbrokes)

Evens—Draw (Betfair/188)

79/17–Costa Rica (10Bet)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/5–Serbia/Serbia (Ladbrokes/Coral

20/1–Serbia/Draw (188)

70/1–Serbia/Costa Rica (Unibet/888)

19/5–Draw/Serbia (Unibet/888)

18/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888)

10/1 (Skybet/Marathon)–Draw/Costa Rica

35/1–Costa Rica/Serbia (Unibet/888/188)

19/1–Costa Rica/Draw (BetVictor)

41/5–Costa Rica/Costa Rica (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

7/5 (YES) — (Unibet/888/188)

3/5 (NO) – (Betway)

Unders/overs:

4/9–under 2.5 goals (Generally available)

37/20–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Betfair)

24/5–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

 

GERMANY V MEXICO – 4pm kick off

1/2—Germany (Betfred)

15/4—Draw (Generally available)

37/5—Mexico (Unibet/888)

OPINION: As ever in the Group Stages, Mexico will remain difficult to ‘knock over’ though that said for the last six successive tournaments, Mexico have been eliminated in the ‘round of 16’ so if they get through this group, lump on their opponents in the next round which should prove to be Brazil if the ‘seedings’ prove to be accurate.

Half time betting:

Evens—Germany (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet)

147/100—Draw (Marathon)

79/17—Mexico (10Bet)

Half time/Full time odds:

5/4–Germany/Germany (Skybet)

20/1–Germany/Draw (Marathon/188)

75/1–Germany/Mexico (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet)

7/2–Draw/Germany (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet)

6/1–Draw/Draw (Generally available)

18/1–Draw/Mexico (Marathon)

25/1–Mexico/Germany (Hills/188)

22/1–Mexico/Draw (BetVictor)

57/4–Mexico/Mexico (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

51/50 (YES) – (Marathon)

19/20 (NO – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

22/19–under 2.5 goals (188)

23/25–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

6/13–under 3.5 goals (188)

21.10–3.5 goals or more (Marathon)

 

BRAZIL V SWITZERLAND – 7pm kick off

43/100—Brazil (Marathon)

4/1—Draw (Betfair/PP/Unibet/BetVictor)

9/1—Switzerland (Generally available)

OPINION: Scoring goals is likely to be the weak link in the Swiss side, whereby Brazil are worthy hot pots’ in their first encounter.

Half time betting:

Evens—Brazil (Ladbrokes)

16/11—Draw (Unibet/888)

15/2—Switzerland (Betfair/188)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/10–Brazil/Brazil (Generally available)

22/1–Brazil/Draw (Unibet/888)

100/1–Brazil/Switzerland (Unibet/888)

57/17–Draw/Brazil (Unibet/888)

6/1–Draw/Draw (Generally)

22/1–Draw/Switzerland Marathon)

25/1–Switzerland/Brazil (Generally available)

22/1–Switzerland/Draw (Generally available)

37/2–Switzerland/Switzerland (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

63/50 (YES) – (Marathon)

4/5 (NO) – (Skybet)

Unders/overs:

21/20–under 2.5 goals (188)

51/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

2/5–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Sunbets/Bet Stars/BetBright)

119/50–3.5 goals or more (Marathon)

 

BETTING UPDATES (OUTRIGHT AND GROUP STAGE ODDS) FOR TEAMS WHO HAVE ALREADY PLAYED – BEST PRICES ON SUNDAY MORNING:

OUTRIGHT:

13/2—SPAIN (Betfair)

8/1—FRANCE (Unibet/Sportingbet/888)

12/1—ARGENTINA (Generally)

22/1—PORTUGAL (Generally)

28/1—URUGUAY (Generally)

33/1—CROATIA (Betfair/Sunbets/PP/888)

66/1—RUSSIA (Generally)

100/1—DENMARK (Sunbets/Unibet/888)

350/1—ICELAND (Black Type – outrageous – only 100/1 with Hills!)

500/1—EGYPT (Hills/PP/Black Type/BetVictor)

500/1—IRAN (Generally)

500/1—PERU (Hills/PP – A little over the top, they played well yesterday)

500/1—NIGERIA (Generally)

1500/1—AUSTRALIA (Skybet)

2500/1—MOROCCO (Skybet)

5000/1–SAUDI ARABIA (generally)

 

GROUP BETTING:

GROUP ‘A’

4/6—Uruguay (Sunbets/10Bet)

171/100—Russia (Marathon)

35/1—Egypt (Betfair/PP)

500/1—Saudi Arabia (Betfair/PP/Unibet/888)

GROUP ‘B’

8/11—Spain (Betfair)

7/4—Portugal (Generally)

14/1—Iran (Unibet/888)

70/1—Morocco (Unibet/888)

GROUP ‘C’

1/3—France (Generally)

3/1—Denmark (Generally)

35/1—Peru (Betfair)

100/1—Australia (Hills)

GROUP ‘D’

10/11—Croatia (Betway)

16/11—Argentina (Inubet/888)

10/1—Iceland (BetVictor)

40/1—Nigeria (Generally)

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