Mar 18

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 18th

BOTH MEETINGS ABANDONED – Possible Irish coverage later – lots to read however plus full Football coverage on today’s FA Cup ties (and outright betting) televised on BBC1 at 1.40 & 4.30….

LATEST ADDITION to today’s service – Best prices for the Sky match at 12.00 – Derby v Cardiff

Saturday’s school report:

MMA WINNERS AT 16/1 (returned at 14/1) & 9/1 (3/1) paid for Saturday’s sport imn no iuncertain terms, though we are still hitting the bar (the placed horses) far too often for my liking.  Remembering its the well documented “long haul”, patience will prove to be a vurtue given our grand British tradition.

Work might be a little late (trying to glean some course information at the time of writing (5.30) as well as slightly thin on the ground whilst I try and round off the Cheltenham Festival work, with winning trainers bearing an uncanny resemblance to last year.  The Timeform feature below is well worth a read over breakfast/brunch this morning.

SUNDAY TIMELINE:

5.30: SUNDAY STAT ATTACK – DONE

6.30: TIMEFORM REPORT RE BOOKMAKER/PINTER PROFITS/LOSSES LAST WEEK – DONE

7.30: FOOTBALL SERVICE (Includes best prices on outright  FA Cup betting this morning) – DONE

9.00: CHELTENHAM TRAINER STATS ROUND UP – DONE

9.45: LIMERICK (IRISH)COVERAGE (Navan abandoned) – DONE

 

SUNDAY:

MMA INTEREST AT LIMERICK (as at 9.30):

2.00: Hows Patsy – 16/1 (PP)

4.45: Veinard – 10/11 (Betfair/PP)

5.15: Open To The World – 7/1 (Sportingbet)

The meeting barely has any history in terms of trends – whereby those of you who made money from Gordon Eliott’s runners at Cheltenham last week might want to perm a few of his runners together in doubles and trebles – here they are listed in race order with best prices for those that might want to invest from a ‘singles perspective’:

2.30: Lackaneen Leader – 13/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.05: Caltex – 5/4 (Sunbets) & Kayf Thou – 40/1 (365)

3.35: Goodthynemilan – 13/8 (Gwenrally available)

4.10: Dinaria Des Obeaux – 8/13 (Generally available)

4.45: Veinard – 10/11 (Betfair/PP)

 

FINAL TRAINER DETAILS – CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL – 2018:

8/32–Gordon Elliott (33/1, 11/1, 9/1, 7/1, 6/1, 5/1*, 4/1 & 8/11*)

7/62–Willie Mullins (25/1, 20/1, 12/1, 9/2, 9/2, 5/6* & 4/7*)

2/21–Colin Tizzard (33/1 & 5/1)

2/23—Paul Nicholls (25/1 & 15/2)

2/34–Nicky Henderson (Evens* & 4/6*)

1/1–Mick Channon (13/2)

1/2–Patrick G Kelly (5/2*)

1/7—Warren Greatrex (8/1)

1/7–Nick Williams (5/1*)

1/11–Tom George (9/1)

1/13—Dan Skelton (33/1)

1/15–Henry De Bromhead (8/1)

Leading trainers who failed to saddle a winner include:

0/17–Nigel Twiston-Davies

0/13—Alan King

0/11—Philip Hobbs

0/9—David Pipe

0/9—Gary Moore

0/7—Fergal O’Brien

0/5—Harry Fry

0/4—Jonjo O’Neill

RESULT:

17 winners—IRELAND

11 winners—UK

And then of course, the Irish won at Twickenham the next day to secure the Five Nations Championship (Ruby Union)!

 

PROFIT/LOSS FOR BOOKMAKERS/PUNTERS AT CHELTENHAM – TIMEFORM REPORT:

How was it for you? Over and above the shared thrill and spectacle of another high-quality Cheltenham Festival, most of us are likely to have our own personal stories of triumphs and tragedies – connected to the horses and humans we backed – to help us define just how fondly this year’s event will be remembered.

If you believe bookies’ representatives and some in the media, desperately trying to construct a beguilingly simple narrative, punters win when favourites win and don’t when they don’t. It is as simple as that.

It is not as simple as that, although a succession of short-priced winners is indeed likely to trigger some hefty multiple wins for punters and losses for the “old enemy”.

To play along with that simple narrative for a while, the Festival was something of a game of two halves, with punters getting the better of early exchanges and bookies getting the better of the later ones.

There were three winning favourites on each of Tuesday and Wednesday, two on Thursday and none on Friday. That is just one more overall than par given the number of races.

The odds-on four-timer of Buveur d’AirApple’s JadeSamcro and Altior – priced at 6/1 at the opening of the Festival – went West due to Apple’s Jade’s modest effort: three wins out of four, which is what transpired, was available at 6/4 on Tuesday morning.

The biggest winning Starting Price was 33/1 (three times) which had been a 15/8 chance behind 4/6 “over 33/1”. Aggregate winning distances snuck into the mid-range of 90 lengths to 120 lengths (around 93.6, depending on precisely how short margins were dealt with), which had been the narrow favourite at 6/4.

There had been something of a turn up before things got under way when “heavy” as the prevailing official description for the going for the first race was heavily and successfully backed from 10.5 on Betfair Exchange on Friday, despite one ATR pundit stating emphatically that it “could not happen”.

Cheltenham’s Clerk of The Course then changed the ground to “soft” halfway through that opening day, to the presumed chagrin of supporters of that option.

It took longer for the Prestbury Cup – the contest between Irish-trained and British-trained horses – to be decided, but only just. The general 8/11 on Ireland pre-event was soon looking like buying money and was eventually decided 17 to 11 in favour of the raiders.

The biggest on-course bets reported in the results’ section of the Racing Post were all winners: there may have been some anxiety for the person who had £20,000 to win £12,300 on Buveur d’Air, but little for those who had £14,000 to win £8,000 on Laurina and £11,000 to win £10,000 on Footpad.

Tuesday’s six odds-on in-play losers (including Kalashnikov at 1.13 in the opening race) on Betfair Exchange was eclipsed by Friday’s seven such (including Might Bite at 1.52 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup).

The shortest-priced in-play loser of all was Carefully Selected, who touched 1.04 (25/1 on) in the Champion Bumper before being run down by Relegate, matched at 300. The latter was not the biggest-priced in-play winner, however, with Mohaayed rather surprisingly touching 590 before his success in the County Hurdle.

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE (BOTH MATCHES LIVE ON BBC 1) – FA CUP TIES – BEST PRICES:

WIGAN V SOUTHAMPTON (1.30 KO)

3/1–Wigan (365/Betfred/Betway)

12/5–Draw (Betfred/188/BetVictor)

11/10–Southampton (Generally available)

Half time betting:

7/2–Wigan (Ladbrokes/Coral)

21/20–Draw (Marathon/Sunbets/Betstars)

15/8–Southampton (Coral)

Half time – Full time betting:

6/1–Wigan/Wigan (Ladbrokes/Coral)

17/1–Wigan/Draw (BetVictor)

33/1–Wigan/Southampton (Ladbrokes/Black Type)

83/10–Draw/Wigan (Marathon)

22/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

9/2–Draw/Southampton(Marathon)

50/1–Southampton/Wigan (Sportingbet)

17/1–Southampton/Draw (BetVictor)

13/5–Southampton/Southampton (Ladbrokes/Coral)

LEICESTER V CHELSEA (4.30 KO)

27/10–Leicester (Marathon)

11/4–Draw (365)

23/20–Chelsea (Betfred)

Half time betting:

16/5–Leicester (Marathon)

5/4–Draw (Sunbets)

17/10–Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Hills/Coral)

Half time – Full time betting:

11/2–Leicester/Leicester (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Leicester/Draw

25/1–Leicester/Chelsea

83/10: Draw/Leicester (Marathon)

27/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

24/5–Draw/Chelsea (Marathon)

40/1–Chelsea/Leicester (Marathon/BlackType/Sportingbet)

16/1–Chelsea/Draw (BetVictor)

12/5–Chelsea/Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor)

OUTRIGHT BETTING TO WIN THE WORLD CUP – AVAILABLE UNTIL 1.30:

7/4–MANCHESTER UNITED (365/Unibet/Black Type)

7/4–TOTTENHAM (365/Unibet/Black Type)

9/2–CHELSEA (365/Unibet/888)

14/1–LEICESTER (Betway/188)

18/1–SOUTHAMPTON (Betway)

70/1–WIGAN (188)

LIVE SKY CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH AT 12.00 – DERBY V CARDIFF – BEST PRICES:

17/10–Derby (Betfred)

9/4–Draw (365/Unibet/188/BetVictor)

21/10–Cardiff (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Coral/Betfred)

Half time betting: 

9/4–Derby (365/Skybet/Hills/Betbright)

Evens–Draw (365/Skybet/Betfred/Betway)

29/10–Cardiff (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Half time – Full time betting: 

11/2–Draw/Derby (Skybet/BetVictor)

17/1–Derby/Draw (BetVictor)

40/1–Derby/Cardiff (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Coral/Betfred)

11/2–Draw Derby (Skybet/BetVictor)

4/1–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

63/10–Draw/CardIff (Marathon)

35/1–Cardiff/Derby (Marathon)

17/1–Cardiff/Draw (BetVictor)

9/2–Cardiff/Cardiff (Ladbrokes/Coral)

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