May 20

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 20th

Saturday’s school report:

Another good day for followers with MMA WINNERS recorded at 16/1 (returned at 17/2) – 8/1 (7/2) – 8/1 (same price) – 6/1 (3/1) – 5/1 (3/1) – with a 20/1 chance beaten half a length (returned at 14/1) which would have completed the set! 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:            

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.30: MAL’S RIPON ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.00: SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

7.45: MAL’S WORLD CUP VIEWPOINT – TAKE 3! (Previous offering can be found below today’s article) – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT- DONE WITH 3 ADDITIONS

 

  • POINT OF ORDER – VERY MUCH A ‘PLAY DAY’ GIVEN THE FAYRE ON OFFER – LOW STAKES ADVISED

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

RIPON:

2.20: Sir Derrick – 6/1 (365/Skybet/Betway/BetVictor)

2.55: We Are The World – 8/1 (Paddy Power)

3.30: Mutamaded – 11/4 (Hills/Sunbets/Unibet)

4.00: Magical Dreamer – 9/2 (PP/Betfair)

5.00: Captain Lars – 7/1 (Generally available)

Additional Ripon entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

MARKET RASEN:

2.10: Mac Tottie – 6/1 (365/Betfair/BetVictor)

2.45: Londonia – 9/1 (Generally available)

3.20: Rapid Fritz – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.50: Wynford (Marathon)

4.20: Monbeg Charmer – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.50: Chantara Rose – 12/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Unibet)

Additional Market Rasen entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

STRATFORD:

3.10: Call Sign Charlie – 33/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: Bodega – 9/1 (PP)

4.10: Mr Mafia – 9/1 (Betfair/PP/Boyle/188/BetVictor)

Additional Stratford entries at 8.00:

2.35: Deise Vu – 18/1 (Unibet/BetBright)

4.40: Seas Aria – 33/1 (Betfair/Pp/BetVictor)

5.10: Rapper – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACKS

RIPON:

21 races – 4 winning favourites – 15/21 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers at Ripon this season:

2/8—Ruth Carr (25/1 & 3/1) – 4 runners: Erastus & Cardaw Lily (2.20), Mutamaded (3.30) & Oreintal Spledour (5.00) – Ruth boasts a 13% strike rate at Ripon via 27 winners down the years, stats which have produced 68 points level stake profit.

2/11—Richard Fahey (11/1 & 4/1) – 5 today: Coolagh Magic (1.50), Narcos & Indomeneo (2.55), Society Boy (3.30) & Crotchet (4.00) – Richard has saddled 98 winners down the years at Ripon (12% strike rate)

Other Ripon stat: Richard Hannon has saddled four winners from just 14 runners here in recent times – 1 runner today: Tigre Du Terre (4.30 – It’s not my fault relating to the cramped odds!)

 

MARKET RASEN:

8 races – No winning favourites – All eight winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Market Rasen this season:

2/6—Dan Skelton (11/2 & 7/4) – Dan landed a short priced (10/11) double on the corresponding card last year, whilst his all time strike rate at the track stands at 28% via 43 winners.  Dan saddled five runners today: Baron Von Chill (2.45), Or De Vassy & Wynford (3.50), Zamperelli (4.20) & Holryale (5.25)

 

STRATFORD:

This is the first meeting of the season with little to report in all honesty. For the record, Dan Skelton has saddled five of his last 12 runners here to winning effect but the trainer is not represented here today.  The same goes for Peter Bowen (6/15 at this venue last season) who has four runners at Market Reason this afternoon

 

WORLD CUP ASSESSMENT – TAKE 3:

There is no more certain scenario when assessing odds at the World Cup finals that in one sector of the games, the prices on offer are going to shift dramatically – in all probability.

The last set of games in the Group stage offer us a chance to use our intellect in assessing how the previous two games for each team will have developed.

You will find the best prices (at the time of writing) for all 16 games played at the final stage of the Group matches – whilst offering odds for the ‘big match’ of the group in each case, if there is one on offer.

 

GROUP ‘A’ – Monday June 25th – 3.00 Kick off – matches played at the same time:

8/11—Egypt (Skybet/Betfair)

11/4—Draw (Betfair)

5/1—Saudi Arabia (Marathon)

 

17/10—Uruguay (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

2/1—Russia (Generally available)

This is the potential crunch match of the group

 

GROUP ‘B’ – Monday June 25th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/11—Portugal (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Iran (Unibet)

 

4/11—Spain (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Morocco (Sportingbet)

 

The big game of Group B – Friday 15th – 7.00 Kick off:

10/11—Spain (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (Generally available)

37/10—Portugal (Bet Stars)

 

GROUP ‘C’ – Tuesday 26th June – 3.00 Kick off:

6/5—Peru (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

13/5—Australia (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

3/5—France (Marathon)

29/10—Draw (Betfair)

11/2—Denmark (Betfair)

This is the most important match in the group

 

GROUP ‘D’ – Tuesday 26th June – 7.00 Kick off:

Evens—Croatia (Marathon)

13/5—Draw (Betfair)

4/1—Iceland (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

8/13—Argentina (Betfair)

10/3—Draw (Hills)

7/1—Nigeria (365 – as short as 9/2 elsewhere)

 

The big game of Group D – Thursday 21st – 7.00 Kick off:

19/20—Argentina (Betfair)

13/5—Draw (888)

4/1—Croatia (Bet Stars – odds look a tad too big)

 

GROUP ‘E’ – Wednesday June 27th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/9—Brazil (Hills)

4/1—Draw (Skybet/365)

17/2—Serbia (Bet Stars)

 

11/12—Switzerland (Betfair/188)

53/20—Draw (Marathon)

19/5—Costa Rica (Unibet – odds look big enough)

 

GROUP ‘F’ – Wednesday June 27th – 3.00 Kick off:

2/7—Germany (Skybet/Bet Stars/BetBright)

5/1—Draw (Betfair)

12/1—South Korea (Betfair/Sportingbet)

 

13/8—Mexico (Betfair)

11/5—Draw (Unibet/Betfair)

11/5—Sweden (Unibet)

This is arguably the big match in the group

 

GROUP ‘G’ – Thursday June 28th – 7.00 Kick off:

8/5—Belgium (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Marathon)

21/10—England (Betfair)

This is the crunch match in the group

 

7/5—Tunisia (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

12/5—Panama (Skybet)

 

GROUP ‘H’ – Thursday June 28th – 3.00 Kick off:

19/20—Poland (Hills)

127/50—Draw (Marathon)

18/5—Japan (Betfair)

 

Evens—Colombia (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

7/2—Senegal (Marathon)

 

The big game of Group H – Sunday 4th – 7.00 Kick off:

13/8—Colombia (Betfair)

23/10—Draw (188)

21/10—Poland (Marathon)

Much depends on the accuracy of how you predict the results of the earlier games in the groups but if can get those games right – you should be able to make plenty of money on these four days of the tournament when the odds go base over apex on occasions, even if the later stages are not so beneficial!

 

PREVIOUS WORLD CUP ARTICLES:

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much as Harry has obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only qualfied in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or are even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have fallen in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

 

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

‘Big six’ teams (bowing to pressure I’ve included England!) – head to head records in World Cup matches (alphabetical order):

90 minutes play – Germany includes previous names in the competition.

ARGENTINA:

Brazil: Played 4:  won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 3/5

England: Played 5: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/8

France: Played 2: won both games – G/D: 3/1

Germany: Played 7: won 1 – drew 3 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/11

Spain: Played: 1: won the match – G/D: 2/1

Stats: Played: 19: won 6 – drew 5 – lost 8 – G/D: 18/26

 

BRAZIL:

Argentina: Played 4:  won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/3

England: Played 4:  won 3 & drew 1 – G/D: 6/2

France: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 6/7

Germany: Played 2: won 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 3/7

Spain: Played: 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 10/5

Stats: Played: 19: won 10 – drew 4 – lost 5 – G/D: 30/24

 

ENGLAND:

Argentina: Played 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 8/5

Brazil: Played 4: drew 1 & lost 3 – G/D: 2/6

France: Played 2: won both matches – G/D: 5/1

Germany: Played 5: drew 4 & lost 1 – G/D: 6/9

Spain: Played 2: drew 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 0/1

Stats: Played: 18 – won 5 – drew 7 – lost 6 – G/D: 21/22

 

FRANCE:

Argentina: Played 2: lost both games – G.D: 1/3

Brazil: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/6

England: Played 2 – lost both games – G/D: 1/5

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 1 – won the match – G/D: 3-1

Stats: Played 13: won 4 – drew 2 – lost 7 – G/D: 19/22

 

GERMANY:

Argentina: Played 7: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 1 – G/D: 11/5

Brazil: Played 2: won 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 7/3

England: Played 5: won 1 & drew 4 – G/D: 9/6

France: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/4

Stats: Played 22: won 9 – drew 9 – lost 4 – G/D: 39/25

 

SPAIN:

Argentina: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/2

Brazil: Played 5: – won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/10

England: Played 2: won 1 & drew 1 – G/D: 1-0

France: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/3

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 4/5

Stats: Played 13: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 7 – G/D: 12/20

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