Jan 21

Mal Boyle Stats- Sunday 21st

Saturday’s school report – Patience was rewarded – eventually!

No sooner had I completed yesterday’s work than I heard that a favourite relative had died and it took me a long time to recover, a little like some of the ‘selections’ yesterday who looked like they were in mourning early doors.

Friday’s preamble about the Saturday meetings began to tick over nicely however before 25/1 MMA winner (12/1 SP) Anonymous John added icing on the cake.  The in form trainers service started to kick into gear too, with Warren Greatex landing an 8/1 treble from his only runners on the day.  Donald McCain landed a double from his trio whilst others obliged here and there, albeit not at great prices.

We rounded off the day with a couple of winners at Chelmsford last night at 15/8 and 6/4, the horses having been put up at 5.00 am yesterday at 10/3 and 15/8 respectively.

Three earlier runners had finished second (8/1 into 4/1 – 10/1 into 5/1 – 10/3 into 15/8), whilst the big Ascot hurdle event saw the two horses offered backed from 6/1 to 3/1 and 7/1 to 10/3, whereby laying off opportunities should have ensured a ‘no loss’ scenario.

 

THURLES HAS NOW BEEN ADDED TO THE SERVICE BELOW…

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – NOW UPDATED WITH ADDITIONAL ENTRIES (as at 8.00 – with average prices of earlier MMA entries now on offer)

FONTWELL:

1.40: Jalath – 13/2 (PP) – NOW 6/1

2.40: Leith Hill Legacy – 13/2 (PP) – NOW 11/2

Any loose change in your pocket?

Minimum stake play in the 4.10: The Imitation Game – 80/1 – (Ladbrokes/Betfair/Paddy Power)- NOW AS SHORT AS 33/1, AVERAGE OF 50/1

Additional Fontwell entries at 8.00: 

2.10: Theo’s Charm – 5/2 (Hills/PP/Tote/Betfred)

CHELMSFORD:

1.55: Frozen Lake – 9/1 (PP) – NOW 13/2

2.25: Dose – 4/1 (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 7/2

3.55: Dynamo Walt – 8/1 (Coral) – NOW 7/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

3.25: Sean O’Casey – 8/1 (Hills)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

5/11–Olly Murphy (+5) – 1 at Fontwell: Mullaghboy (3.40)

5/14–Phil McEntee (+5) – 2 at Chelmsford: Red Mohican (1.55) & Embers Glow (2.55)

4/15–Emma Lavelle (+16) – 2 at Fontwell: Ruggerio (3.10) & Fontsanta (4.10)

3/8–Gay Kelleway (+32) – 2 at Chelmsford: Stosur (2.25) & Topmeup (2.55)

7 horses (via in form trainers) listed in race order:

1.55: Red Mohican

2.25: Stosur

2.55: Embers Glow & Topmeup

3.10: Ruggerio

3.40: Mullaghboy

4.10: Fontsanta

 

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS FOR CHELMSFORD TODAY:

Out of interest, the only trainer to have saddled a winner last night at the venue who has a runner today is Lisa Williamson.  Lisa scored with a 4/1 joint favourite – Firesnake is on offer at 14/1 with Paddy Power at the time of writing – worth a saver?

Chelmsford – The last three meetings have witnessed all 20 winners scoring at a top price of 10/1, stats which include eight successful favourites of one description or another.   Indeed, 16/20 scored at 5/1 or less.

 

ADDITIONAL COMMENTS FOR FONTWELL TODAY: 

26 of the last 27 winners during the last four meetings at Fontwell have scored at a top price of 10/1, stats which include nine winning favourites.

Gary more has saddled a winner at each of the last three meetings at Fontwell, though with eight runners on today’s card, his potential gold medallists take some sorting!

‘Local tracks’ often create false images and Gary’s is a case in point.  Does he do better with his runners at Fontwell or at Plumpton?

This season at Fontwell: 6/54 (loss of 22 level stake points) – Last 5 years: 47/309 (-31)

This season at Plumpton: 8/44 (-2) – Last 5 years: 51/262 (-20)

Conclusion: Marginally better at Plumpton: +7% this season – + 4% over the five year period

 

THURLES TODAY (Mind where you tread – a 200/1 chance won at the last meeting!):

1.20: Two favourites have scored via the last ten renewals, whilst three of the last five gold medallists where returned at 66/1, 33/1 & 20/1.  Five-year-olds have won eight of the last nine contests coming to today’s gig on a six-timer.

2.50: Gordon Elliott (A Toi Phil) has saddled the last two winners when represented.

3.20: Seven-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals – Willie Mullins (Kate Appleby Shoes) has won the last two contests when represented

3.50: Three of the four favourites have finished out of the frame via three renewals (no winners)

4.20: Favourite come into the finale on a four-timer

 

Trainers have long since been labelled as ‘creatures of habit’ and generation upon generation have proved this assessment to be true.  The following list shows where trainers have excelled/flopped at racecourses in Scotland & Wales both in this season and for the past five years.

The first figures relate to stats at the relevant tracks this season – second ratio is pertinent to the last five years. Figures printed in bold relate to a minimum 30% strike rate in the relevant sectors.

Nicky Henderson:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners yet this season – 5/36

Kelso: No runners – 4/7

Musselburgh: No runners – 7/27

Perth: (no runners – 1/19

Scottish totals to date: 0/3 – 17/86

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/7 – 13/52

Chepstow: 1/4 – 8/37

Ffos Las: 2/3 – 15/39

Welsh totals to date: 4/14 – 36/128

 

Paul Nicholls:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 11/43

Kelso: 1/37/18

Musselburgh: No runners – 8/21

Perth: 1/25/11

Scottish totals to date: 2/5 – 27/93

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/5 – 4/12

Chepstow: 5/21 – 31/170

Ffos Las: 0/2 – 7/28

Welsh totals to date: 6/28 – 42/220

 

Nigel Twiston-Davies:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/2 – 0/17

Kelso: No runners – 3/15

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/1

Perth: 2/9 – 19/101

Scottish totals to date: 2/11 – 22/134

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 2/7 – 14/71

Chepstow: 2/14 – 18/123

Ffos Las: 3/21 – 37/188

Welsh totals to date: 7/42 – 69/382

 

Dan Skelton:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 8/33

Kelso: No runners – 1/6

Musselburgh: No runners – 2/12

Perth: No runners – 1/4

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 12/55

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 10/26 – 21/75

Chepstow: 1/17 – 8/61

Ffos Las: 0/2 – 4/30

Welsh totals to date: 11/45 – 33/166

 

Colin Tizzard:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/3

Kelso: No runners – 0/1

Musselburgh: No runners at all during the last five years

Perth: No runners at all during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/4

Welsh courses:

Bangor: No runners – 0/9

Chepstow: 2/29 – 12/147

Ffos Las: 1/4 – 1/10

Welsh totals to date: 3/33 – 13/166

 

Tom George:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/10

Kelso: 2/43/7

Musselburgh: 0/2 – 3/15

Perth: 4/14 – 14/63

Scottish totals to date: 6/20 – 20/95

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 3/6 – 5/26

Chepstow: 2/15 – 15/70

Ffos Las: 1/2 – 4/21

Welsh totals to date: 6/23 – 24/117

 

Evan Williams:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 4/9

Kelso: No runners – 0/3

Musselburgh: No runners – 1/1

Perth: 0/2 – 2/12

Scottish totals to date: 0/2 – 7/25

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 2/9 – 5/69

Chepstow: 5/25 – 28/174

Ffos Las: 9/39 – 40/306

Welsh totals to date: 16/73 – 73/549

 

Alan King:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 3/23

Kelso: No runners at all during the last five years

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/1

Perth: No runners at all during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 3/24

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/9 – 16/57

Chepstow: 1/13 – 9/63

Ffos Las: 0/2 – 2/16

Welsh totals to date: 2/24 – 27/136

 

Donald McCain:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 3/6 – 15/83

Kelso: 4/23 – 33/159

Musselburgh: 3/15 – 27/129

Perth: 6/17 – 22/112

Scottish totals to date: 16/61 – 97/483

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 16/47 – 63/306

Chepstow: 0/1 – 1/10

Ffos Las: No runners – 0/1

Welsh totals to date: 16/48 – 64/323

 

Jonjo O’Neill:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 1/9

Kelso: No runners – 1/3

Musselburgh: No runners at all during the last five years

Perth: 0/2 – 0/2

Scottish totals to date: 0/2 – 2/14

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 2/17 – 16/117

Chepstow: 0/11 – 15/117

Ffos Las: 1/11 – 18/107

Welsh totals to date: 3/39 – 49/341

The second batch of ten trainers will be offered tomorrow – out of interest, Kelso are due to stage a meeting on Thursday.

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

 

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