Feb 25

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 25th

Saturday’s school report:

I think that Saturday’s results were best summed up by the fall of Back To The Thatch in Newcastle’s Eider Chase, Richard Johnson’s mount having been backed down from 9/1 to 6/1.

Going supremely well in the second half of the race, ‘Dickie’ took a rare fall and that was that.  It just wasn’t his or our day as his mount in the last was backed (3/1 into 5/4) as if defeat was out of question but in racing, defeat is always a variable, and so it proved.

We had a 5/1 winner ‘late doors’ at Wolverhampton (6.45) and there was a 28/1 treble for Kempton’s leading trainer (as passed on) for Paul Nicholls.

The in form trainer service offered winners at 14/1 – 8/1 – 7/1 – 7/2 – 3/1 – 2/5, though there no is papering over the cracks from yours truly on what was a hugely disappointing day.

School report: Must do better –  Attitude: No change, will do better!

RACING NEWS (In case you had not heard): Due to the weather forecast, three additional all weather meetings have been added to this weeks fixture list in the early part of the week – with further meetings likely to be added as the projected heavy frosts/snow takes effect.

MONDAY: LINGFIELD — TUESDAY: CHELMSFORD — WEDNESDAY: WOLVERHAMPTON

FOOTBALL NEWS: 

William Hill have either ‘taken a view’ or have laid United heavily as they are way out of line regarding the price of Chelsea this morning – best prices at the foot of the column.

 

SUNDAY TIMELINE:

3.00: STAT ATTACK FOR FONTWELL & SOUTHWELL – DONE

3.30: AHEAD OF THE GAME – SUNDAY – DONE

4.30: BEST FOOTBALL PRICES ON TODAY’S TWO BIG GAMES (offering my viewpoint) – DONE

5.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.45: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.00: MMA PRICE UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – PRICES UPDATED – NO ADDITIONS

14.00: MONDAY’S IN FORM TRAINERS – TODAY!

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – PRICES UPDATED – NO ADDITIONS

FONTWELL:

2.50: Moneystown – 22/1 (Skybet) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 20/1

3.20: Dr Des – 8/1 (Generally available) – NOW 15/2

3.55: Miblawi – 5/2 (Ladbrokes) –NOW 9/4

4.55: Two to consider: Quiz Master – 5/1 (Generally available) & Roll Of The Dice – 14/1 (Ladbrokes) = coupled price of 10/3 – NOW 9/2 & 11/1 RESPECTIVELY = COUPLED PRICE OF 11/4

Additional Fontwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

 2.00: Royal Art – 7/1 (Generally available) – NOW 13/2

2.30: Red Danaher – 5/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP) – NOW 9/3

3.00: Contre Tous – 7/2 (Skybet) – NOW 3/1

3.35: Jeannot De Nonate – 12/1 (PP/Stan James) – NOW 9/1

4.35: Handscourt – 14/1 (Hills/Marathon) – NOW 11/1

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or a really good level stake profit:

11/35—Sue Smith (+7) – 1 at Southwell: Red Danaher (2.30)

6/19—Fergal O’Brien (+14) – 1 at Southwell: Indian Reel (4.05)

5/15—Paul Nicholls (+15) – 5 at Fontwell: Copain De Classe (2.20), The Last But One (2.50), Old Guard (3.20), Unioniste (4.25) & Southfield Torr (5.25)

5/17—Alan King (+1) – 1 at Fontwell: The Unit (2.20)

3/4—Henry Oliver (+15) 4 today – 3 at Southwell: Today Please (2.00), Hijran (3.00) & Whispering Harry (4.05) + 1 at Fontwell: De Des (3.20)

3/5—Chris Gordon (+14) – 2 at Fontwell: Jimmy (3.55) & Hit The Highway (4.55)

3/7—Peter Bowen (+12) – 3 at Southwell: Jersey Jewell (3.00), Jeanott De Nonant (3.35) & Cruising Be (4.35)

3/8—Richard Spencer (+6) – 1 at Fontwell: Aptly Out (3.55)

2/5—Graeme McPherson (+12) – 2 at Southwell: Hollywood All Star (4.05) & Cranbrook Causeway (4.35)

20 runners in race order:

2.00: Today Please

2.20: Copain De Classe & The Unit

2.30: Red Danaher

2.50: The Last But One

3.00: Hijran & Jersey Jewel

3.20: Old Guard & Dr Des

3.35: Jeannot De Nonant

3.55: Aptly Put & Jimmy

4.05: Whispering Harry, Hollywood All Star & Indian Reel

4.25: Unioniste

4.35: Cruising Bye & Cranbrook Causeway

4.55: Hit The Highway

5.25: Southfield Torr

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated):

FONTWELL:

36 races – 13 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £217.20

Highest dividend: £669.30 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £25.00 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Gary Moore (9/1, 6/1, 5/1, 7/2 & 11/4 – includes a 419/1 treble last year) – 4 runners today: Stoical Patient (2.50), Ubak (3.20), Roll Of The Dice (4.55) & The Flying Sofa (5.25)

 

SOUTHWELL (Three year study):

21 races – 4 winning favourites – 18/21 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £17,188.70

Highest dividend: £51,326.60 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £31.00 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Only one trainer has saddled more than one winner via just three fixtures to date though unfortunately, Phil Kirby is not represented today.

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – SUNDAY:

FONTWELL:

2.50: Colin Tizzard is the only trainer to have won this race on two occasions having only been represented three times.  Colin saddles Fergal Mael Duin this time around.

3.20: Paul Nicholls has been represented six times in the last seven years and is the only trainer to have won the race twice during the period.  Paul has offered the green light to Old Guard on this occasion.

4.25: Paul Nicholls (Unioniste) has won all four renewals when represented during the last decade.  Market leaders have won nine of the last ten contests, the other race having been won by the 4/1 second favourite.

NAAS:

3.45: Henry De Bromhead has saddled four of the last five winners.  Henry’s entry Aliisier D’Irlande is quoted as a 9/1 chance in the betting forecast in the trade press.

5.15: Willie Mullins (Carefully Selected) leads Gordon Elliott (Invincible Care) 4-2 via the last seven renewals.

Unfortunately, there is nothing to report from the meeting at Southwell.

 

MONDAY’S IN FORM TRAINERS  – TODAY!  (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

10/29—Anthony Honeyball (+14) – 4 at Plumpton: Soulsaver & Double Accord (4.40) & Port Royale & Shaipiro (5.15)

7/18—Rose Dobbin (+16) – 1 at Ayr: Sweet As Candy (3.15)

5/14—Ed Walker (+8) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Legal History (6.45) & Restless Wave (7.45)

4/10—Dr Richard Newland (+9) – 1 at Plumpton: Greyed A (4.05)

4/13—Keith Dalgleish (+6) – 2 chances: Take The High Road (2.15 Ayr) & New Abbey Angel (7.15 Wolverhampton)

Last 3 runners have won—Andrew Hamilton (+7) – 1 at Ayr: Bobbie’s Diamond

3/6—David Evans (+23) – 4 chances – 2 at Lingfield: Renny’s Lady (2.55) & Mouchee (4.00) + 2 at Wolverhampton: Essenaitch (7.45) & Dougan (8.15)

3/7—Suzi Best (+44) – 2 at Plumpton: Ertidaad (2.25) & Boru’s Brook (3.35)

3/8—Ivan Furtado (+10) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Glorious Asset (7.15)

Last 2 runners have won—Donald Whillans (+9) – 2 at Ayr: Keyboard Gangster (2.15) & Big Bad Dream (5.30)

2/4—Dean Ivory (+12) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Tropics (8.15)

2/4—Martyn Meade (+5) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Loyal Promise (6.45)

2/5—Charlie Fellowes (+7) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Lady Safeara (6.15)

2/5—Richard Hannon (+4) – 1 at Lingfield: Sotomayor

24 runners via in form trainers in race order:

2.15: Keyboard Gangster & Take The High Road

2.25: Bonus Brook

2.55: Renny’s Lady

3.15: Sweet As Candy

3.35: Ertidaad

3.50: Bobbie’s Diamond

4.00: Mouchee & Sotomayor

4.05: Greyed A

4.40: Soulsaver & Double Accord

5.15: Port Royale & Shapiro

5.30: Big Bad Dream

6.15: Lady Safeara

6.45: Loyal Promise & Legal History

7.15: Glorious Asset & New Abbey Angel

7.45: Essenaitch & Restless Wave

8.15: Dougan & Tropics

 

BEST FOOTBALL PRICES FOR TODAY’S BIG MATCHES:

2.05 – Live on Sky – Man Utd v Chelsea (Premier League)

7/5–Man Utd (Stan James)

12/5–Draw (Betfair)

14/5–Chelsea (Hills)

Half time prices:

85/40–Man Utd (Stan James)

11/10–Draw (Betfair)

10/3–Chelsea (Hills)

4.30 – Live on Sky: Man City v Arsenal (League Cup Final)

10/11–Man City (Betfred)

33/10–Draw (Marathon)

16/5–Arsenal (365)

Half time prices: 

29/20–Man City (Hills)

8/5–Draw (Stan James)

16/5–Arsenal (Ladbrokes/Coral/Marathon)

Mal’s viewpoint: The 90 minutes prices about Chelsea (14/5) and Man City (10/11) both look too big.

My prices (I was an Odds Compiler for Coral in a previous life) would be 11/5 and 8/11 respectively.

Be lucky of course but as ever- Be aware!

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