EARLY PRICE ALERT – 33/1 ABOUT OREGON GOLD (PADDY POWER – 3.40 KELSO) LOOKS A TAD BIG IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT AT 3.15. If you have some loose change about your person after yesterday’s tough day, Nick Kent’s raider could reward each way investors to minimum stakes.
Saturday’s school report:
Three late winners saved the day (to a fashion) at 9/2 (SP: 6/4), 5/1 (9/2) & 9/4 (5/4), whilst there were some nice winners via the in form trainer sector. Chirs Gordon was the pick of the bunch when his only runner on the day (Remiluc) obliged at 20/1 in the last at Cheltenham, taking his current run to 4/7 (+36).
SUNDAY (Includes football stats at the foot of the column!):
DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – NOW UPDATED WITH ONE ADDITION
SEDGEFIELD (ALONGSIDE OREGON GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE – NOW AS SHORT AS 20/1):
2.10: Aaron Lad – 9/4 (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote)
3.10: Dica – 11/2 (PP)
Additional Sedgefield entries at 8.00:
1.40: Beau Bay – 7/4 (Sta James)
IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):
9/20—Donald McCain (+9) – 4 chances: Prince Khurrum (1.10), Wazowski (3.40) & Toboggan’s Gift & Princess Mononoke (4.10)
7/28—Brian Ellison (+8) – 3 runners: It’s Your Move (2.10), Viens Chercher (3.10) & Diamond L’Ouest (3.40)
5/22—Mick Easterby (+14) – 2 chances: Rear Admiral (3.10) & Banny’s Lad (3.40)
4/18—Henry Oliver (+4) – 1 today: Burrenbridge Hotel (1.40)
3/9—Amy Murphy (+6) – 1 runner: King’s Reste (2.10)
2/4—Chris Grant (+20) – 3 today: Red Ochre (1.10), Quadriga (2.40) & Theatre Act (4.10)
2/4—Phil Kirby (+6) – 1 today: Rock Of Leon (2.40)
15 runners in race order via the in form trainer list:
1.10: Prince Khurrum & Red Ochre
1.40: Burrenbridge Hotel
2.10: King’s Reste & It’s Your Move
2.40: Quadriga & Rock Of Leon
3.10: Viens Churcher & Rear Admiral
3.40: Wazowski, Banny’s Lad & Diamond L’Ouest
4.10: Toboggan’s Gift, Theatre Act & Princess Mononoke
SUNDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):
SEDGEFIELD (Four year study – meetings abandoned in 2012/13):
26 races – 6 winning favourites – All 26 winners scored at a top price of 12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £87.78
Highest dividend: £228.40 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £5.60 (2015)
Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
3 winners—Malcolm Jefferson (8/1, 4/1 & 2/1*) – 1 runner today: Nautical Twilight (1.10)
LEADING TRAINERS AT SEDGEFIELD THIS SEASON WITH RUNNERS TODAY:
9/41—Donald McCain (+7) – 4 runners
6/27—Brian Ellison (loss of 7 points) – 3 runners
4/24—Sue Smith (loss of 7) – 4 runners
DON’T FANCY ANYTHING AT SEDGEFIELD – WHAT ABOUT AT NAAS?
Willie Mullins v Gordon Elliott stats:
Willie Mullins (6 runners today) – latest ratio: 3/7 (+2)
Gordon Elliott (8 runners today) – latest ratio: 3/10 (+11)
At Naas this season:
Willie Mullins: 4/8 (+2)
Gordon Elliott: 2/13 (+23)
At Naas – last five seasons:
Willie Mullins: 33/101 (+16)
Gordon Elliott: 22/124 (loss of 6 points)
Race by race trends (where applicable):
1.20: Three of the four winners have scored at a top price of 5/2 (two successful market leaders), though a 25/1 gold medallist reared its ugly head twelve months ago.
1.50: Last year’s 4/1 winner brought to an end a run of five successive winning favourites. Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3.
2.20: Seven-year-old’s have won seven of the last eleven contests, with Jury Duty being this year’s lone representative. That said, Noel Meade (Moulin A Vent) has won four of the last seven renewals when represented. Seven of the last eight winners scored at a top price of 4/1, stats which include two winning favourites.
4.20: Six-year-old’s have secured five of the last eleven contests with vintage representatives at 6/5 this time around before the form book is taken into consideration. Market leaders have won five of the last eleven renewals, with a top priced winner emerging at just 5/1 during the period.
Onto warmer thoughts which inevitably lead to the World Cup in June/July – especially now that prices have been chalked up for the first round of matches.
England are around the 1/3 mark to win their opening match against Tunisia on Monday 18th June (7.00 kick off). England beat Tunisia 2-0 in their first match in the 1998 finals when Alan Shearer and Paul Scholes scored the goals.
Don’t get too carried away with the mortgage money however, as it’s worth noting that England have won just five of their opening games via fourteen tournaments they have contested to date. Full stats in the opening games: Played 14 – won 5 – drew 6 – lost 3 – Goal difference: 20-15
It’s the type of stats that I have been working on this winter, whilst I also have the five year trends for the meetings at Ayr, Carlisle, Nottingham & Windsor for that day on the racing front. The latter two meetings are evening fixtures – clashing with the game.
It invariably pays to think ahead….
Be lucky of course but as ever – be aware!