Apr 29

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 29th

Saturday’s school report:

MMA WINNERS AT 16/1 (returned at 12/1) – 9/1 (9/2) – 9/1 (13/2) – 8/1 (3/1*) – 7/1 (9/2) – 6/1 (3/1) – 6/4 (4/6) = average winning price of 6/1 – average SP: 10/3.

In terms of words – sometimes less, is more!

 

APPROXIMMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:        

4.30: SALISBURY STAT ATTACK – DONE

6.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.30: MAL’S SALISBURY ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.30: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 3 ADDITIONS

8.15: FOOTBALL SERVICE – PREMIER LEAGUE – DONE

12.00: SUNDAY FEATURE – WORLD CUP PREVIEW STARTS HEREFREE FOR SUBSCRIBERSPLEASE TELL YOUR FRIENDS – FAMILY MEMBERS – WORK COLLEAGUES! – DONE

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

SALISBURY:

3.05: First Eleven – 6/5 (365/Unibet/Coral/Boyle/Betway)

4.15: Champagne Champ – 7/1 (888)

4.45: Elysium Dream – 13/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.20: Sir Roderic – 7/2 (Sunbets/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Salisbury entries at 8.00:

2.00: Two to consider: Ginger Nut – 3/1 (365/Marathon/Betfair) & Haats Off – 22/1 (Marathon)

 

WETHERBY:

3.50: Sincerely Resdev – 11/1 (Marathon)

4.25: Tadaawol – 11/2 (365)

4.55: Highland Bobby – 6/1 (365)

5.30: Peachey Carnehan – 11/1 (365)

6.00: Coral Caye – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/365)

Additional Wetherby entry at 8.30:

3.15: Lady Willpower – 14/1 (BetBright)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

25/53—Charlie Appleby (+36) – 1 at Sha Tin: Blue Point (9.00)

21/53—John Gosden (+25) – 5 today: Staplegrove (2.10 Wetherby), Award Winning (2.40 Wetherby), First Eleven (3.05 Salisbury), Cracksman (3.30 Longchamp) & Almoghared (4.05 Salisbury)

14/53—Micky Hammond (+44) – One 100/1 chance today: Austellus (2.10 Wetherby)

9/33—Ralph Beckett (+26) – 4 today: Air Pilot (3.30 Longchamp) + 3 at Salisbury: Construct (3.40), Mistress Quickly (4.15) & Richenza (4.45)

6/20—Richard Hannon (+15) – 3 at Salisbury: Ginger Nit (2.00), Elysium Dream (4.15) & Fast And Hot (5.20)

3/6—Sir Michael Stoute (+16) – 1 at Salisbury: Precision (4.15)

15 runners in race order:

9.00: Blue Point

2.00: Ginger Nut

2.10: Staplegrove & Austellus

2.40: Award Winning

3.05: First Eleven

3.30: Cracksman & Air Pilot

3.40: Almoghared & Construct

4.15: Precision & Mistress Quickly

4.45: Elysium Dream & Richenza

5.20: Fast And Hot

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACK (FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD UNLESS STATED):

SALISBURY:

37 races – 17 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £17.92

Highest dividend: £40.10 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £2.80 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Richard Hannon (8/1, 3/1, 8/11* & 1/3*) – 3 runners today: Ginger Nut (2.00), Elysium Dream (4.45) & Fast And Hot (5.20)

3 winners—Ralph Beckett (11/2, 9/2 & 11/4*) – 3 runners: Construct (3.40), Mistress Quickly (4.15) & Richenza (4.45)

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – TWO LIVE PREMIER LEAGUE GAMES ON SKY:

WEST HAM V MANCHESTER CITY – 2.15 KICK OFF

10/1–West Ham (365/Betfair/Betfred/Boyle/BetVictor)

11/2–Draw (Betway)

1/3–City (Unibet)

Half time betting: 

7/1–West Ham (Skybet/Marathon/BetVictor)

93/50–Draw (Marathon)

10/13–City (188)

Half time/Full time odds: 

18/1–West Ham/West Ham ()Ladbrokes/Coral)

25/1–West Ham/Draw (Marathon/BetVictor)

22/1–West Ham/City (Skybet)

25/1–Draw/West Ham (Marathon)

10/1–Draw/Draw (Martathon)

37/10–Draw/City (Marathon)

90/1–City/West Ham

22/1–City/Draw

10/11–City/City (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetStars/BetVictor)

MANCHESTER UNITED V ARSENAL – 4.30 KICK OFF

4/9–United (Betfred)

17/4–Draw (365/BetVictor)

15/2–Arsenal (Betfair)

Half time betting: 

19/20–United (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8/5–Draw (Marathon)

13/2–Arsenal (BetVictor)

Half time/Full time odds:

23/20–United/United (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetStars)

21/1–United/Draw (BetVictor)

70/1–United/Arsenal (Marathon)

15/4–Draw/United (Marathon)

81/10–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

18/1–Draw/Arsenal (Marathon/365)

25/1–Arsenal/United (Skybet)

25/1–Arsenal/Draw (BetVictor)

14/1–Arsenal/Arsenal (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor)

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE ONE…..

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much has Harry as obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only played in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have been in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

 

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

Best of luck until I write again – I’ll give you plenty of notice when that will be.

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