Feb 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 4th

SUNDAY AFTERNOON – MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY EARLY DETAILS:

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – FIRST PART OF THE WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MONDAY:

The meetings at Newcastle and Southwell are essentially new fixtures.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.45: Only one of the last seven renewals has been secured by a favourite, albeit five of the last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.  Out of interest, no horse has won from the lowest three stalls during the last eight years.

6.15: All four winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, statistics which include two winning favourites.  Five and six-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date.  Richard Fahey is the only represented trainer to have won the race before and he will be hoping that Gabrial can maintain his 100% strike rate in the contest.

TUESDAY:

There is no history to the A/W meeting at Southwell on Tuesday.

SEDGEFIELD:

20 furlong – Class 5 handicap hurdle (scheduled for 1.40): Both (3/1 & 4/7) favourites have won in facile fashion, scoring by an aggregate distance of eleven lengths.

Class 4 – 21 furlong handicap chase (scheduled for 3.15): Although all three favourites have been beaten thus far (two finished second), the biggest priced winner to date scored at 9/2.

Handicap hurdle event over 27 furlongs – Class 5 (Scheduled for 4.20): We still await the first winning favourite – top priced winner thus far: 12/1.  Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

MARKET RASEN:

Class 3 NH Novice hurdle qualifier (scheduled for 2.55): All three winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 with one favourite having won at 9/4.  Five of the seven available Placepot positions have been claimed by six-year-olds, whilst two vintage representatives have won their respective events.

20 furlong – Class 4 handicap hurdle (scheduled at 3.25): All three winners carried 11-3 or more, whilst six-year-olds have secured five of the eight available Placepot positions (two winners).

Class 4 Limited novice handicap chase (scheduled for 4.00): Eight-year-olds have won all three contests thus far.  Market leaders have won two of the three renewals, the biggest price gold medallist having been returned at 4/1.  All three winners carried 11-4 or more.

Hunter chase event (scheduled for 4.30): Both (4/6 & 4/9) favourites have scored in facile fashion, winning by an aggregate of eleven lengths.

WEDNESDAY:

LUDLOW:

Mares handicap hurdle (scheduled for 2.40): Six-year-olds have won three of the four contests.

20 furlong – Class 3 handicap chase (scheduled for 3.15): Three winning favourites have been recorded via six renewals since 2008.  Six-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the contest.

Class 4 maiden hurdle (scheduled for 4.45): Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals.  Five years have slipped by since a winning market leader was recorded, though five of the six winners have scored at a top price of just 7/2.

CARLISLE:

17 furlong – novice hurdle (scheduled for 1.50): Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst all five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 5/1 (two winning favourites).  Micky Hammond has Cornerstone Lad entered up, having won two recent renewals.

Three mile novice handicap chase at Class 4 level (scheduled for 2.20): Four of the last five winners have scored at 16/1, 14/1 & 12/1 (twice).  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, whilst five of the last six have carried a minimum weight of 11-2.

Novice hurdle event for mares – 19 furlongs (scheduled for 2.55): Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals. Donald McCain has saddled two recent winners and the trainer holds one entry this time around, namely Banrion Scairp.

Class 4 two mile novice limited handicap chase (scheduled for 3.25): Favourites have won all three races to date.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Class 5 – 14 furlong handicap (scheduled for 5.25): Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst 5/6 have carried nine stones or more.  The last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Seven furlong handicap at Class 3 level (scheduled for 6.25): – All four winners have won at a top price of 3/1 – including two winning favourites.  Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four contests.

Class 6 – five furlong handicap (scheduled for 7.55): Four-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests, whilst the last four gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-4.  Market leaders have secured four of the eight renewals.

FAKENHAM is essentially a new meeting, whilst there is no history to the meeting at CHELMS FORD.

 

On Friday I wrote (headline):

TWO POINTS OF ORDER REGARDING HORSES MENTIONED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WHICH ARE RUNNING THIS COMING WEEKEND.

On Thursday I wrote: The leading trainer during the period is Simon Dow on the three winner mark (9/2, 9/2 & 2/1*) though unfortunately Simon is not represented at Kempton today.  That said, I note that he has just the one runner pencilled in at the track for Saturday’s fixture, namely Ojala in the scheduled 7.15 contest.  WON AT 4/1

The other horse is Tactical Manoeuvre who looked set to be a great ‘bet to nothing’ bet on Wednesday before being withdrawn.  I suggested at the time that he had two potential engagements and not having run today (Friday), all looks set for the green light at TAUNTON (4.30) for which he has been declared a runner at the ‘overnight’ stage.  THERE IS PLENTY OF MONEY IN THE POSITIVE QUEUE ON THE EXCHANGES AT 3.30 THIS MORNING (SUNDAY), SUGGESTING THAT THE HORSE IS ‘READY’ TODAY, JUST AS IT WAS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING WITHDRAWN.

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICE UPDATES & ADDITIONS NOW ENTERED:

MUSSELBURGH:

12.50: Celtic Flames – 11/1 (Skybet/Boyle/Betfair/PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 9/1

2.00: Simply The Betts – 11/1 (Skybet/Betfair/Unibet/888) – NOW 9/1

2.35: Present Man – 9/1 (Stan James) – NOW 13/2

3.10: Jump For Dough – 6/1 (PP) – NOW 5/1

Additional Musselburgh entry at 8.00:

3.45: Carlton Ryan – 11/2 (Betfred/Tote)

TAUNTON:

2.15: The Gipper – 8/1 (PP) – NOW 6/1

4.00: Mister Drifter – 8/1 (PP) – NOW 7/1

4.30: Two to consider: Tactical Manoeuvre – 5/1 (Betfair/PP) & The Mistress – 9/1 (Ladbrokes) – Coupled odds: 11/4 – NOW 9/2 – 7/1 & 9/4 respectively

Additional Taunton entries at 8.00:

1.40: Culture De Sivola – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/PP/Boyle)

3.25: Private Malone (11/2 (Betbright)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

16/55—Harry Whittington (+16) – 2 chances: Simply The Betts (2.00 Musselburgh) & Ruby Yeats (2.15 Taunton)

14/42—Nicky Henderson (+5) – 3 at Musselburgh: We Have A Dream (1.25), Claimantakinforgan (2.00) & Mr Whipped (2.35)

13/36—Donald McCain (+29) – 3 at Musselburgh: Cousin Oscar (12.50), Knock House (3.10) & Golden Investment (3.45)

9/32—Warren Greatrex (+1) – 3 runners: Groundunderrepair (1.40 Taunton), Shantou Bob (2/25 Leopardstown) & Mahlervous (2.50 Taunton)

7/18—Paul Nicholls (+5) – 7 today – 5 at Musselburgh: The Last One (12.50), Act Of Valour (1.25), Brahms De Claremont (2.00), Present Man (2.35) & Connetable (3.10) + 2 at Taunton: Grand Sancy (1.05) & Valpone Jelois (2.50)

7/23—Henry Daly (+14) – 1 at Taunton: Vice Et Vertu (3.25)

6/14—Anthony Honeyball (+7) – 1 at Taunton: Cloudy Bob (3.25)

6/23—Keith Dalgleish (+39) – 3 at Musselburgh: Uptown Funk (1.25), Mac N Cheese (3.10) & Chanceanotherfive (4.20)

5/11—Rose Dobbin (+15) – 1 at Musselburgh: Attention Please (3.45)

4/8—Robin Dickin (+2) – 1 at Taunton: Vocaliser (2.15)

4/11—Iain Jardine (+13) – 1 at Musselburgh: Rainy City (12.50)

4/14—Kim Bailey – 3 at Musselburgh: Red River (2.35), Cresswell Legend (3.10) & By The Boardwalk (3.45)

3/8—Jeremy Scott (+13) – 1 at Taunton: Unison (2.50)

3/9—Phil Kirby (+2) – 1 at Leopardstown: Lady Buttons (12.40)

3/10—Colin Tizzard (+7) – 3 at Taunton: Sizing Tara & Storm Home (1.05) & Theatrical Star (3.25)

2/3—Dan Skelton – 3 at Taunton: Blairs Cove & Comrage Conrad (2.50) & The Mistress (4.30)

37 runners in race order via the in form trainer list:

12.40: Lady Buttons

12.50: The Last One, Rainy City & Cousin Oscar

1.05: Grand Sancy, Storm Home & Sizing Tara

1.25: Act Of Valour, Uptown Funk & We Have A Dream

1.40: Goundunderrepair

1.50: Unison

2.00: Brahms De Clermont, Simply The Betts & Claimantakinforgan

2.15: Vocaliser & Ruby Yeats

2.25: Shantou Bob

2.35: Present Man, Red River & Mr Whipped

2.50: Valpone Jelois, Blairs Cove, Mahveolous & Comrade Conrad

3.10: Knock House, Mac N Cheese, Connetable & Cresswell Legend

3.25: Vice Et Vertu, Theatrical Star & Cloudy Bob

3.45: Golden Investment, Attention Please & By The Boardwalk

4.20: Chanceanotherfive

4.30: The Mistress

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

MUSSELBURGH:

39 races – 16 winning favourites – 36/39 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £502.14

Highest dividend: £1,939.40 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £37.00 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—Nicky Henderson (Prices ranging between 4/11* & 11/4*) – 3 runner today: We Have A Dream (1.25), Claimantakinforgan (2.00) & Mr Whipped (2.35)

6 winners—Paul Nicholls (Prices ranging between4/9* & 15/2) – 5 runners today: The Last One (12.50), Act Of Valour (1.25), Brahms De Claremont (2.00), Present Man (2.35) & Connetable (3.10)

TAUNTON:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 30/34 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £108.94

Highest dividend: £379.90 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £13.60 (2012)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Paul Nicholls (13/8*, 5/4* & 8/15*) – 2 runners today: Grand Sancy (1.05) & Valpone Jelois (2.50)

3 winners—Evan Williams (16/1, 4/1 & 4/6*) – 5 runners: Flight To Milan & Cappaway (1.05), The Gipper (2.15), Go Long (2.50) & Yellow Jangaroo (4.00)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’:

SUNDAY – MUSSELBURGH:

1.25: Six of the last nine favourites have won during which time, a top priced 9/1 winner emerged

2.00: We still await the first success market leader following three contests, albeit the biggest priced winner to date was returned at just 4/1

2.35: Six-year-olds have won the last four contests of just five in total

3.10: Two of the three favourites (11/4 & 11/8) have won thus far

TAUNTON:

1.05: Favourites have won seven of the last 10 renewals during which time, a top priced winner emerged at 9/1.  Five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests

2.15: We still await the first successful market leader after three renewals, albeit the winners have scored at 5/1 or less thus far

LEOPARDSTOWN:

12.40: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won during which time, two of the last three winners scored at 20/1 & 12/1.  Six of the last seven gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 10-11.

1.15: Willie Mullins (Mr Adjudicator) has saddled six runners during the last three years, claiming two gold, three silver and one bronze medal.

1.50: Willie Mullins saddles four of the eleven runners having won the last five renewals, only one of which was returned as a favourite for the relevant contest.

3.00: Seven-year-olds have secured six of the last nine contest.  Willie Mullins has saddled six winners during the last decade, the trainer being responsible for five of the eleven declarations this time around.

3.35: Willie Mullins (two entries) has not been represented in two of the last four renewals during which time, this race has eluded the trainer, albeit Willie landed a hat trick in this Grade 1 contest immediately before the rot set in!  Only one of the last seven marker leaders has prevailed.

4.10: Nine-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst last year’s winning favourite was the first market leader to oblige since the old king died.  Five of the last six winners carried 10-13 or less.

Willie Mullins v Gordon Elliott at Leopardstown:

This season:

Willie: 11/55 – loss of 15 points

Gordon: 5/50 – loss of 14

Last five years:

Willie: 74/289 – loss of 32

Gordon: 18/2154 – loss of 60

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

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