Mar 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 4th

Saturday’s school report:

Not a great day yesterday by any stretch of the imagination but some trends worked out well, particularly in the football sector.

As far as in form trainers were concerned, Brian Ellison took his recent ratio up to 6/11 via an 11/2 treble from just four runners on the day.  Brian’s next scheduled runners are on Thursday.  Iain Jardine took his tally of late to 4/5 via an 11/2 winner, stats which now offer 28 points of level stake profits – next runner scheduled for Tuesday.

Mike Murphy continues to do well under the radar (4/11 +11) having scored with a 4/1 chance, whilst Robert Cowell took his current stats to 5/9 (+4) via a 2/1 gold medallist.  Their next respective runners should on parade on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.

Only one horse obliged in the MMA sector which was disappointing, albeit I got the Placepot up (yet again) via the analysis where I sent out strong words of support for Lingfield winners Attain (8/1) and our MMA winner Roy’s Legacy who was put forward at 5/1 before being returned at 5/2.

On the football front I have some really interesting stats down at the foot of today’s column for you relating to the big match at 4.00.  I’m not sure you will want to part with the mortgage money for Manchester City, just in case you were looking to gain some ‘easy’ Cheltenham money.

Yesterday’s results extended trends by and large, all bar West Ham who came a cropper at Swansea.

Burnley have now beaten Everton in three of their four Premier League encounters at home, whilst Leicester have yet to beat Bournemouth home or away from six matches to date.

Southampton have still only managed two victories again Stoke in 12 games, whilst Liverpool have now won 18/23 at home to Newcastle since the Premier League was introduced in 1992.

 

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am)

SOUTHWELL:

2.15: Silver Penny – 15/2 (Betbright)

3.15: Seasearch – 11/4 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

3.50: Oscar Wilde – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.20: Western Way – 10/3 (Hills)

4.55: Tilly Devine – 13/2 (Generally available)

NO ADDITIONS TODAY – ONLY MARGINAL MOVES UP UNTIL 8.00

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or a really good level stake profit:

6/12–Andrew Balding (+18) – 3 runners: Dawn Dancer (2.45), Seasearch (3.15) & Queen Moon (4.55)

2/3–Richard Fahey (+7) – 2 chances: Wilde Oscar (3.50) & Street Sensation (4.55)

 

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FEATURES THUS FAR: 

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP – Latest best prices and trainer stats for the relevant horses down the years in this event and specifically, during the last five years:

4/1—Might Bite (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote/Boylesports)

Trainer: Nicky Henderson – 2 winners of this event down the years

Nicky’s record in the last five years: 5 runners: 1 winner (11/4*) – 1 place (7/2) – 3 unplaced

13/2—Native River (Betfair)

Trainer: Colin Tizzard – No winners to date

Colin’s record in the last five years: 3 runners: 1 placed (7/2) & 2 unplaced

7/1—Sizing John (defending champion) (Sportingbet)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – 1 winner of this event

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – Winner!

10/1—Road To Respect (Marathon/Betbright/Sportingbet/BetVictor)

Trainer: Noel Meade – No winners to date

Noel’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – placed at 8/1

10/1—Killultagh Vic (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Willie Mullis – No winners – six silver medallists down the years!

Willie’s record in the last five years: 9 runners: 5 placed (16/1, 10/1, 9/2, 9/2 & 4/1) – 4 unplaced

20/1—Our Duke (BetStars)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – 1 winner of this event down the years

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – Winner!

20/1—Definitly Red (BetStars)

Trainer: Brian Ellison – No winners to date

Brian’s record in the last five years: No runners

STAYERS HURDLE:

4/1—Supasundae (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – No winners down the years

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 2 runners – both unplaced

5/1—Sam Spinner (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Jedd O’Keefee – No winners down the years

Jedd’s’s record in the last five years: No runners

5/1—Yanworth (big mover this week) (Ladbrokes/Coral/Hills/BetVictor)

Trainer: Alan King – 1 winner

Alan’s record in the last five years: 2 runners: 1 placed (9/1) – 1 unplaced

10/1—Penhill (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Willie Mullins – 1 winner of this event (last year)

Willie’s record in the last five years: 8 runners: 1 winner (10/1) – 1 placed (11/8*) – 6 unplaced

12/1—L’Ami Serge (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Nicky Henderson – 2 winners of this event down the years

Nicky’s record in the last five years: 6 runners: 1 placed (33/1) – 5 unplaced

12/1—The New One (Almost right across the board – 9/1 in a place though)

Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies – No winners down the years

Nigel’s record in the last five years: 1 runner (unplaced)

14/1—Apples Jade (Probable non runner but Bet365 are out on a limb!)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott – No winners down the years

Gordon’s record in the last five years: 1 runner (unplaced)

 

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DETAILS – 2018

Champion Day – Tuesday, March 13 (Old Course)
Time Race Distance Prize Money
1.30pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f £125,000
2.10pm Racing Post Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade1) 2m £175,000
2.50pm Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f £110,000
3.30pm Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f £450,000
4.10pm OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f £120,000
4.50pm National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 4m £125,000
5.30pm Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 4½f £70,000
Total Prize money: £1,175,000

Ladies Day – Wednesday, March 14 (Old Course & Cross Country)
1.30pm Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f £125,000
2.10pm RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m ½f £175,000
2.50pm Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f £100,000
3.30pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m £400,000
4.10pm Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f £65,000
4.50pm Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m ½f £80,000
5.30pm Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m ½f £75,000
Total £1,020,000

St Patrick’s Thursday – Thursday, March 15 (New Course)
1.30pm JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f £150,000
2.10pm Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 3m £100,000
2.50pm Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 5f £350,000
3.30pm Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m £325,000
4.10pm Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 5f £110,000
4.50pm Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 1f £90,000
5.30pm Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup A R Handicap Chase 3m 2f £70,000
Total £1,195,000

Gold Cup Day – Friday, March 16 (New Course)
1.30pm JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f £125,000
2.10pm Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 1f £100,000
2.50pm Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m £125,000
3.30pm Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2½f £625,000
4.10pm St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase (Amateur riders) 3m 2½f £45,000
4.50pm Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f £70,000
5.30pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m ½f £110,000
Total £1,200,000

Record prize money for The Festival 2018 – £4.59 million, up £285,000 (+ seven per cent)

 

WILLIE MULLINS RECENT QUOTES ABOUT HIS FOUR POTENTIAL RUNNERS IN THE GOLD CUP: 

Bachasson: “Connections of Bachasson are keen to go to Cheltenham for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is fantastic jumper but whether he can carry that weight over that trip – it will be a tough ask.”

Djakadam: “He has been disappointing this season, but this year’s Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup could be the most open he has competed in.

“There is a lot of feeling that he should go back for the Ryanair Chase, and that might happen, but I feel he should go for the Gold Cup.

“He doesn’t look the same horse this season on the track. His form is not good enough, although it wasn’t a bad run in the Irish Gold Cup to be third. He certainly has not fired like he has in previous seasons.”

Killultagh Vic: “He goes for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

“He looked in a very good position in the Irish Gold Cup and I would not have been betting against him jumping the last. He had the momentum and looked like he was pulling away.

“I always think your first thought is your best thought. When you look at it after you see the other horses coming from behind, but they weren’t in the picture when you’re watching it live. I thought he had a really good chance going to the last.

“We were worried when he fell but he has schooled well since. It looked like he was too careful at Leopardstown. Hopefully, he will have learned and will be all right on the day.

“I would have no stamina concerns, not with his pedigree. He beat Thistlecrack in a three-mile novice hurdle.”

Total Recall: “Our aim has been the Grand National but he probably needs to go for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. We were going to go for the Bobbyjo but it came too soon after Leopardstown.

“I think the Gold Cup gives us a good chance. He is a relaxed horse who jumps economically and that would suit him around Cheltenham in a Gold Cup. He will be switched off and won’t be using too much energy.

“It looks a fairly open Gold Cup and he deserves to have a crack at it.”

 

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP – Latest best prices and trainer stats for the relevant horses down the years in this event and specifically, during the last five years:

4/1—Might Bite (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote/Boylesports)

Trainer: Nicky Henderson – 2 winners of this event down the years

Nicky’s record in the last five years: 5 runners: 1 winner (11/4*) – 1 place (7/2) – 3 unplaced

13/2—Native River (Betfair)

Trainer: Colin Tizzard – No winners to date

Colin’s record in the last five years: 3 runners: 1 placed (7/2) & 2 unplaced

7/1—Sizing John (defending champion) (Sportingbet)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – 1 winner of this event

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – Winner!

10/1—Road To Respect (Marathon/Betbright/Sportingbet/BetVictor)

Trainer: Noel Meade – No winners to date

Noel’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – placed at 8/1

10/1—Killultagh Vic (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Willie Mullis – No winners – six silver medallists down the years!

Willie’s record in the last five years: 9 runners: 5 placed (16/1, 10/1, 9/2, 9/2 & 4/1) – 4 unplaced

20/1—Our Duke (BetStars)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – 1 winner of this event down the years

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 1 runner – Winner!

20/1—Definitly Red (BetStars)

Trainer: Brian Ellison – No winners to date

Brian’s record in the last five years: No runners

STAYERS HURDLE:

4/1—Supasundae (Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote)

Trainer: Mrs John Harrington – No winners down the years

Jessica’s record in the last five years: 2 runners – both unplaced

5/1—Sam Spinner (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Jedd O’Keefee – No winners down the years

Jedd’s’s record in the last five years: No runners

5/1—Yanworth (big mover this week) (Ladbrokes/Coral/Hills/BetVictor)

Trainer: Alan King – 1 winner

Alan’s record in the last five years: 2 runners: 1 placed (9/1) – 1 unplaced

10/1—Penhill (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Willie Mullins – 1 winner of this event (last year)

Willie’s record in the last five years: 8 runners: 1 winner (10/1) – 1 placed (11/8*) – 6 unplaced

12/1—L’Ami Serge (Almost right across the board)

Trainer: Nicky Henderson – 2 winners of this event down the years

Nicky’s record in the last five years: 6 runners: 1 placed (33/1) – 5 unplaced

12/1—The New One (Almost right across the board – 9/1 in a place though)

Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies – No winners down the years

Nigel’s record in the last five years: 1 runner (unplaced)

14/1—Apples Jade (Probable non runner but Bet365 are out on a limb!)

Trainer: Gordon Elliott – No winners down the years

Gordon’s record in the last five years: 1 runner (unplaced)

 

CHELTENHAM PRE-FESTIVAL STATS THIS SEASON:

68 races – 23 winning favourites – 62/68 scored at a top price of 12/1

9/28—Nicky Henderson (5/1, 9/1, 4/1, 5/2*, 15/8*, 13/8*, Evens*, 1/7* & 1/10*) – Level stake profit

7/38—Colin Tizzard (3/1, 5/2, 2/1*, 7/4, 5/4*, 10/11* & 4/5*)

7/41—Nigel Twiston-Davies (25/1, 9/1, 15/2, 13/2, 6/1, 9/4** & 6/5*) – Level stake profit

4/28—Paul Nicholls (13/2, 4/1, 5/2 & 9/4*)

3/18—Dan Skelton (7/2**, 10/3 & 6/4)

3/23—Fergal O’Brien (8/1, 7/1 & 7/4*)

2/3—Anthony Honeyball (9/2** & 3/1) – Level stake profit

2/5—Kerry Lee (7/2 & 10/3*) – Level stake profit

2/5—Neil Mulholland (10/1 & 3/1*) – Level stake profit

2/6—Alan King (10/1 & 15/8**) – Level stake profit

2/15—Martin Keighley (33/1 & Evens*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Michael Blake (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Mick Channon (6/1) – Level stake profit

1/2—Robert Walford (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/3—Michael Scudamore (14/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Brian Ellison (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Chris Gordon (20/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Paul Henderson (13/2) – Level stake profit

1/4—Donald McCain (8/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Nicky Richards (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/5—Henry De Bromhead (9/4)

1/5—Jamie Snowden (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/7—Warren Greatrex (5/2)

1/8—Gordon Elliott (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/8—Ben Pauling (6/1)

1/8—Tim Vaughan (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/11—Nick Williams (9/1)

1/12—Harry Fry (11/4*)

1/12—David Pipe (11/1) – Level on the year

1/16—Philip Hobbs (4/1)

1/19—Tom George (11/2)

Biggest losses this season to date include:

0/14—Jonjo O’Neill

0/13—Ian Wiliams

0/10—Charlie Longsdon

0/6—Kim Bailey

0/6—Peter Bowen

0/6—Evan Williams

0/5—Venetia Williams

May Hunter Chase meeting winning trainers aside from Fergal O’Brien and Ben Pauling:

1/1—D C Gibbs (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Paul King (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Philip Rowley (8/13*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Miss L Thomas (9/4*) – Level stake profit

1/3—R J Bandey (12/1) – Level stake profit

 

2017 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL ROLL OF HONOUR:

TRAINERS:

6 winners—Gordon Elliott (25/1, 16/1, 12/1, 7/1, 4/1 & 7/2)

6 winners—Willie Mullins (20/1, 16/1, 10/1, 7/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*)

3 winners—Mrs John Harrington (16/1, 10/1 & 7/1)

3 winners – Nicky Henderson (5/1, 7/2* & 1/4*)

1 winner—Henry De Bromhead (11/1)

1 winner—Stuart Edmunds (40/1)

1 winner—Alan Fleming (8/1)

1 winner—Philip Hobbs (5/2*)

1 winner—Patrick G Kelly (11/1)

1 winner—Noel Meade (14/1)

1 winner—Paul Nicholls (16/1)

1 winner—Ben Pauling (14/1)

1 winner—David Pipe (9/1)

1 winner—Nick Williams (33/1)

JOCKEYS:

4 winners—Ruby Walsh (10/1, 7/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*)

3 winners—Robbie Power (16/1, 10/1 & 7/1)

2 winnersNico de Boinville (7/2* & 1/4*)

2 winners—J J Codd (7/1 & 4/1)

2 winners—Brian Cooper (14/1 & 7/2)

2 winners—Noel Fehily (11/1 & 5/1)

2 winners—Richard Johnson (33/1 & 5/2*)

2 winners—Paul Townsend (20/1 & 16/1)

1 winner—Miss G Andrews (40/1)

1 winner—David Bass (14/1)

1 winner—Bryony Frost (16/1)

1 winner—Jack Kennedy (25/1)

1 winner—Miss L O’Neill (16/1)

1 winner—Denis O’Regan (8/1)

1 winner—Davy Russell (11/1)

1 winner—Tom Scudamore (9/1)

1 winner—J J Slevin (12/1)

 

FOOTBALL – SUNDAY:

TODAY’S PREMIER LEAGUE ACTION:

Brighton v Arsenal (1.30 – Live on Sky – See odds below)

1 match at Brighton – 0-2 scoreline

 

Manchester City v Chelsea (4.00 – Live on Sky – See odds below)

41 matches in total – 10 wins for City – 7 drawn – 24 wins for Chelsea – G/D: 36-63

Matches at Man City: 6-2-12 (8/26)

For the record, Man City have only won one of the last 12 league games at home to Chelsea, whilst only one draw has been played out via the last 17 fixtures.

The last seven games in Manchester have resulted in Chelsea securing 19/21 available points via a goal difference in their favour of 12/4.

 

Best odds for today’s two live Premier League games:

12.30 KO – Brighton v Arsenal:

10/3—Brighton (Hills)

11/4—Draw (365/Skybet/Hills/Unibet)

Evens–Arsenal (Betway)

Half time betting:

18/5—Brighton (BetVictor)

5/4—Draw (365)

31/20—Arsenal (Ladbrokes/Coral)

 

4.00 KO – Manchester City v Chelsea

8/13—City (Hills/Betway)

17/5—Draw (Marathon/Unibet)

21/4—Chelsea (365/BetVictor)

Half time betting:

6/5—City (Hills)

29/20—Draw (Marathon)

49/10—Chelsea (Marathon)

Be lucky of course though as ever, Be aware!

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