May 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 6th

Saturday’s school report:

The highlight of the day was Charlie Appleby’s 138/1 four-timer at Newmarket (trainer was highlighted yesterday morning/and earlier in the week via my Craven Stakes meeting study) + Placepot up at headquarters to £3.20 of the £20.40 (£1 unit) dividend.

The Placepot analysis offered all six winners + two Exacta forecasts of £50.70 & £26.00 in the first two races via three selections in each race. 

There were four MMA WINNERS at 10/1 (returned at 5/1), 13/2 (3/1), 4/1 (7/2) & 4/1 (11/4), notwithstanding a 12/1 WINNER for the highlighted trainer at Doncaster which was pointed out early doors. My 2000 Guineas analysis yesterday offered the quote by Aidan O’Brien which directed you to back Saxon Warrior. 

The words are the only ones offered in the last month (and more) of daily columns:  “He’s a very special horse, we think. He’s done everything we’ve asked of him and he’s only been a baby. I’d say there’s no doubt he’ll be better on better ground”.  Within seconds of the victory, Saxon Warrior was already been talked of as a potential ‘Triple Crown’ winner – a “very special horse” indeed….

  • POINT OF ORDER – Today very muck looks like an each way play day from my viewpoint…

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:        

4.00: NEWMARKET & HAMILTON STAT ATTACKS – DONE

6.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.45: MAL’S MEWMARKET ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.15: LEADING TRAINER INFORMATION AT NEWMARKET + STATS (Yesterday’s offering directed you to Charlie Appleby’s 138/1 four-timer from just seven runners at the track) – DONE

7.45: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE + 4 ADDITIONS

8.20: FOOTBALL SERVICE – DONE

9.00 SUNDAY FEATURE – WOLD CUP PREVIEW TAKE TWO – FREE FOR SUBSCRIBERS – PLEASE TELL YOUR FRIENDS – FAMILY MEMBERS – WORK COLLEAGUES!  ‘TAKE ONE’ CAN BE FOUND BELOW TODAY’S OFFERING FOR NEW SUBSCRIBERS WHO HAVE NOT SEEN THE ARTICLE AS YET – DONE

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

NEWMARKET:

1.50: Wolf Country – 8/1 (365/Skybet/Betway/BetVictor)

2.20: Tisbutadream – 12/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes)

2.55: Gifted Master – 16/1 (365)

3.35: Laurens – 10/1 (Betfair)

5.20: He’s Amazing – 8/1 (BetBright)

Additional Newmarket entry at 8.00:

4.45: Expressly – 15/2 (PP & BetVictor)

 

HAMILTON:

2.05: Savalas – 4/1 (Betfair/PP/Bet Stars/BetVictor)

2.35: Archippos – 13/2 (Ladbrokes)

3.45: Ma Fee Heela – 8/1 (Generally available)

Additional Hamilton entry at 8.00:

1.30: One Boy – 10/1 (BetBright)

 

TOWCESTER:

2.40: Trans Express – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

Additional Towcester entries at 8.00:

3.50: Minella Scamp – 9/2 (Ladbrokes/Unibet/888/BetVictor)

4.25: Two to consider – Ask Dillon – 4/1 (Betfair/PP) & Budding Robin – 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

NEWMARKET (ROWLEY MILE) STATS FOR 2018:

Races: 31 – 9 winning favourites – 26/31 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer (by the proverbial country mile):

10/21—Charlie Appleby (4/1 – 4/1* – 7/2 – 7/2** – 11/4 – 5/2 – 5/2* – 2/1* – 7/4 – 5/4*) – 10 runners today: Wolf Country, Celestial Spheres & Alqamar (1.50), Wuheida (2.20), Soliloquy & Wild Illuson (3.35), Fly The Nest (4.10), Expressly & Espadrille (4.45) & Bow Street (5.20)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

28/76—John Gosden (+19) – 1 at Newmarket: Lah Ti Dar (4.45)

20/64 – William Haggas – 2 at Newmarket: The Grand Visir (1.50) & Fanaar (4.10)

6/12—Kevin Ryan (+38) – 4 at Hamilton: Laughton (1.30), Savalas (2.05), Tewafeedj (3.10) & Lait Au Chocolat (4.20)

4/8—Nicky Henderson (+4) – 4 at Towcester: French Crusader (1.00), Ballinure (2.40), Doux Pretender (3.15) & Mill Green (4.25)

4/8—Dan Skelton (+17) – 3 at Towcester: Simply Lucky (1.35), Wynford (2.40) & Renwick (3.15)

4/9—Roger Varian – 6 at Newmarket: UAE Prince (1.50), Victory Angel & Ekhtiyaar (2.55), Altyn Order & Madeline (3.35) & Qazyna (4.45)

Last three runners have won—Zoe Davison (+11) – 1 at Towcester: Dylanseoghan (2.10)

3/7—Michael Bell – 1 at Newmarket: Maori Bob (1.50)

3/7—Ed Walker (+2) – 2 at Newmarket: Indian Blessing (2.20) & Aeolus (2.55)

3/8—Clive Cox (+9) – 3 at Newmarket: Tis Marvellous (2.55), Konchek (4.10) & He’s Amazing (5.20)

Last two runners have won—James Tate (+5) – 1 at Newmarket: Grecian Spirit (5.20 Newmarket)

2/3—David O’Meara (+11) – 3 at Hamilton: Me Fee Hella (3.45), Valentino Dancer (4.20) & Fleetfoot Jack (4.55)

2/4—Tim Easterby (+17) – 3 at Hamilton: Nuns Walk (1.30), Regal Image (3.10) & Brother McGonagall (4.55)

+ 31/65—Charlie Appleby (40) – 10 runners at Newmarket today –  seen runners immediately above

34 runners listed in race by race order:

1.00: French Crusader

1.30: Laughton & Nuns Walk

1.35: Simply Lucky

1.50: Maori Bob, UAE Prince & The Grand Visir

2.05: Savalas

2.10: Dlyanseoghan

2.20: Indian Blessing

2.40: Ballinure & Wynford

2.55: Aeolus, Victory Angel, Ekhtiyaar & Tis Marvellous

3.10: Tewafeedj & Regal Image

3.15: Doux Pretender & Renwick

3.35: Altyn Order & Madeline

3.45: Me Fee Heela

4.10: Fanaar & Kockchek

4.20: Lait Au Chocolat & Valentino Dancer

4.25: Mill Green

4.45: Lah Ti Dar & Qazyna

4.55: Fleetwood Jack & Brother McGonagall

5.20: Grecian Spirit & He’s Amazing

 

SUNDAY STAT ATTACS (FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD UNLESS STATED):

NEWMARKET STAT ATTACK FOR SUNDAY (7 YEAR STUDY)

Average Placepot dividend: £634.31

Highest dividend: £2,715.40 (2011) – Lowest dividend: £166.60 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

6 winners—John Gosden (5/1, 3/1, 5/2, 15/8*, 6/4* & Evens*) – 1 runner: Lah Ti Dah (4.45)

 

HAMILTON (6 YEAR STUDY):

43 races – 10 winning favourites – 40/43 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £506.75

Highest dividend: £1,143.80 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £98.60 (2014)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Alan Berry (40/1, 14/1 & 10/1) – 1 runner: Economic Crisis (1.30)

3 winners: Keith Dalgleish (8/1, 7/2 & 7/2*) – 10 runners!

3 winners—Kevin Ryan (13/2, 13/2 & 7/2) – 4 declared: Laughton (1.30), Savalas (2.05), Tewafeedj (3.10) & Lait Au Chocolat (4.20)

It would good to take this opportunity to remember the late Alan Swinbank who was the leading trainer with five winners to his name, including those at 25/1 & 12/1.

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – TODAY’S ‘TOP FOUR CHAMPIONS LEAGUE’ CLASH:

CHELSEA V LIVERPOOL – LIVE ON SKY – 4.30 KICK OFF:

5/4–Chelsea (Generally available)

66/25–Draw (Marathon)

12/5–Liverpool (Skybet)

Half time betting: 

9/5–Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Coral)

63/50–Draw (Marathon)

14/5–Liverpool (BetVictor)

Half time/Full time odds: 

13/5–Chelsea/Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Chelsea/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

35/1–Chelsea/Liverpool (Marathon/188)

26/5–Draw/Chelsea (Marathon)

59/10–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

77/10–Draw/Liverpool (Marathon)

30/1–Liverpool/Chelsea (188)

17/1–Liverpool/Draw (BetVictor)

19/4–Liverpool/Liverpool (BetVictor)

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE TWO!

‘Big six’ teams (bowing to pressure I’ve included England!) – head to head records in World Cup matches (alphabetical order):

90 minutes play – Germany includes previous names in the competition.

ARGENTINA:

Brazil: Played 4:  won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 3/5

England: Played 5: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/8

France: Played 2: won both games – G/D: 3/1

Germany: Played 7: won 1 – drew 3 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/11

Spain: Played: 1: won the match – G/D: 2/1

Stats: Played: 19: won 6 – drew 5 – lost 8 – G/D: 18/26

 

BRAZIL:

Argentina: Played 4:  won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/3

England: Played 4:  won 3 & drew 1 – G/D: 6/2

France: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 6/7

Germany: Played 2: won 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 3/7

Spain: Played: 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 10/5

Stats: Played: 19: won 10 – drew 4 – lost 5 – G/D: 30/24

 

ENGLAND:

Argentina: Played 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 8/5

Brazil: Played 4: drew 1 & lost 3 – G/D: 2/6

France: Played 2: won both matches – G/D: 5/1

Germany: Played 5: drew 4 & lost 1 – G/D: 6/9

Spain: Played 2: drew 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 0/1

Stats: Played: 18 – won 5 – drew 7 – lost 6 – G/D: 21/22

 

FRANCE:

Argentina: Played 2: lost both games – G.D: 1/3

Brazil: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/6

England: Played 2 – lost both games – G/D: 1/5

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 1 – won the match – G/D: 3-1

Stats: Played 13: won 4 – drew 2 – lost 7 – G/D: 19/22

 

GERMANY:

Argentina: Played 7: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 1 – G/D: 11/5

Brazil: Played 2: won 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 7/3

England: Played 5: won 1 & drew 4 – G/D: 9/6

France: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/4

Stats: Played 22: won 9 – drew 9 – lost 4 – G/D: 39/25

 

SPAIN:

Argentina: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/2

Brazil: Played 5: – won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/10

England: Played 2: won 1 & drew 1 – G/D: 1-0

France: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/3

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 4/5

Stats: Played 13: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 7 – G/D: 12/20

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE ONE – PREVIOUS OFFERING LAST SUNDAY

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much as Harry has obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only qualfied in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or are even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have fallen in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

 

 

 

 

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