Apr 08

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 8th

Saturday’s school report:

Mal’s opinion of last night’s game before the match read; “City could be there for the taking if Jose is brave enough” – albeit I didn’t expect United to be two goals down at one stage! MMA WINNERS AT 14/1 (albeit advised at a shorter price – ‘best price guarantee always recommended’) and 9/2 + plenty of in form trainers winning helped to keep that damn wolf away from our door.

APPROXIMMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:        

4.15: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

4.30: US MASTERS PRICE UPDATE/THOUGHTS – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.00: MAL’S EXETER ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.15: FOOTBALL SERVICE – TWO MORE BIG PREMIER LEAGUE MATCHES – DONE

7.30: ROUND UP OF THE STATS AND FACTS RELATING TO NEXT WEEK’S GRAND NATIONAL AS POSTED DURING THE WEEK IN THREE PARTS – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH ONE ADDITION

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CARLISLE:

1.50: Two horses to consider: Astaroland – 5/1 (365) & Frightened Rabbit – 18/1 (365) = 7/2 coupled

2.20: Saint Freule – 5/1 (Generally available)

3.55: Swing Hard – 16/1( PP)

4.30: Carlton Ryan – 15/2 (365)

Additional Carlisle entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

EXETER:

2.05: Oh Dear Oh Dear – 14/1 (Generally available) – Small change stakes and/or forecast fodder?

2.35: I See You Well – 12/1 (Skybet/Unibet/888/BetVictor)

3.10: Caspar King – 11/1 (Unitbet/888)

3.40: General Girling – 14/1 (Skybet)

4.45: Plantagenet – 9/1 (Berfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Exeter entry at 8.00:

5.15–Salubrious (Generally available)

 

SUNDAY’S IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

8/22—Jennie Candlish (+25) – 4 at Carlisle: Astaroland (1.50), Grove Silver (3.55), Aengus (4.30) & Cosheston (5.30)

6/8—Tom Lacey (+18) – 2 at Exeter: Alberto’s Dream (3.40) & Colt Lightning (4.45)

5/15—Ben Haslam (+9) – 1 at Carlisle: Cash Again (3.55)

4/6—Micky Hammond (+43) – 4 at Carlisle: Skywards Reward (1.50), Dakota Grey (2.50), Cornerstone Lad (3.25) & Justforjames (3.55)

3/4–Lisa Harruison (+15) – 1 at Carlisle: Instingtive (2.20)

Last two runners have won—Alan Jones (+12) – 1 at Exeter: Dulhallow Lad (3.10)

Last two runners have won—Matt Sheppard (+7) – 2 at Exeter: The Bay Birch (3.10) & Kayf Tiger (4.15)

15 runners – listed in race order:

1.50: Skywards Reward & Astaroland

2.20: Instingtive

2.50: Dakota Grey

3.10: Dulhallow Lad & The Bay Birch

3.25: Cornerstone Lad

3.40: Alberto’s Dream

3.55: Cash Again, Grove Silver & Justforjames

4.15: Kayf Tiger

4.30: Aengus

4.45: Colt Lightning

5.30: Cosheston

 

US MASTERS – BEST PRICES – THOUGHTS GOING INTO THE LAST ROUND:

13/10–Patrick Reed (Sportingbet) – 14 under par

9/5–Rory McIlroy (Unibet) – 11 under

17/2–Rickie Fowler (Unibet/Betfred.BetStars/BetBright/888) – 9 under

16/1–John Rahm (365/Unitbet/Sportingbet/888) – 8 under

35/1–Henrik Stenson (Betfred/Sportingbet) – 7 under

Golf might only play a secondary part tonight as ‘mind games’ come to the fore, particularly relating to Patrick Reed.  Much depends on how quickly Rory (and Rickie to a fashion) can put pressure on the leader. I suggested yesterday that 9/1 looked too big a price about McIlroy and I fully expect the bookmakers to run for cover later this morning when more cash has been poured on the genial Irishman.  If Patrick Reed still has a three stroke (or more) lead coming out of ‘Amen Corner’, the mind games will ‘reverse’ as Rory puts pressure on himself to close the gap as the holes start running out.

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – TWO BIG PREMIER LEAGUE GAMES TODAY AFFECTING BOTH ENDS OF THE TABLE – BEST PRICES IN THREE SECTORS – AND OPINION:

ARSENAL V SOUTHAMPTON (2.15 KO – LIVE ON SKY)

8/13–Arsenal (Betfred)

71/20–Draw (Marathon)

21/4–Southampton (BetVictor)

Half time betting:

23/20–Arsenal (Ladbrokes)

6/4–Draw (Marathon)

5/1–Southampton (BetVictor)

Half time/Full time odds:

29/20–Arsenal (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetStars)

18/1–Arsenal/Draw (Skybet/Marathon/BetVictor)

50/1–Arsenal/Southampton (Ladbrokes/Coral/Black Type/Sportingbet)

15/4–Draw/Arsenal (BetVictor)

6/1–Draw/Draw (Skybet/Marathon/Bredfred/BetVictor)

13/1–Drw/Southampton (Marathon)

25/1–Southampton/Arsenal (BetVictor)

21/1–Southampton/Draw (BetVictor)

21/2–Southampton/Southampton (BetVictor)

Things are becoming desperate in the Southampton camp now; so much so that a point might not be deemed good enough within the club.  If taking that stance (which they surely mast do), Arsenal have the chance to catch the Saints on the break at will to secure the points, albeit we now how inconsistent the Gunners have been for the last few seasons.  That said, Southampton still have the FA Cup at the back of their minds which will not help today’s cause.

CHELSEA V WEST HAM (4.30 KO – LIVE ON SKY)

3/10–Chelsea (Marathon)

11/2–Draw (Betfair)

12/1–West Ham (Betfair/Coral/BetStars)

Half time betting: 

3/4–Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Corals)

9/5–Draw (Unibet/888)

17/2–West Ham (Hills/BetVictor)

Half time/Full time odds: 

20/23–Chelsea/Chelsea (Ladbrokes/Coral)

28/1–Chelsea/Draw (Marathon)

125/1–Chelsea/West Ham (Sportingbet)

17/5–Draw/Chelsea (BetVictor)

17/2–Draw/Draw (BetVictor)

25/1–Draw/West Ham (365/Skybet/Marathon)

25/1–West Ham/Cheslea (Skybet/Hills/Marathon/188/BetVictor)

28/1–West Ham/Draw (Marathon/Bet Victor)

25/1–West Ham/West Ham (Marathon)

On an emotional day at Stamford Bridge, the manager will surely tell the Chelsea players to go and win this game for ‘Butch’, though there is also another reason that springs to mind.  Liverpool could become vulnerable after the win over Manchester City as we saw yesterday in terms of their Champions League intent.  Chelsea could start to ‘sniff blood’ at Anfield now despite their potential  ‘top four position’ seemingly having been blown out of the water following their home defeat against Tottenham.  Liverpool have not become a different team all of a sudden but just like the US Masters scenario today, mind games can make/break individuals and teams alike.  Chelsea dare not let this opportunity slip away today….

 

GRAND NATIONAL STAT AND FACTS – POSTED EARLIER THIS WEEK IN THREE PARTS – ALL OFFERED TOGETHER NOW…

I have been offering work for a company which sends my thoughts to a number of its clients for quite a few years now.  This was my opening line on the race last year which was posted on the Wednesday before the race when One for Arthur was an 18/1 chance:

One for Arthur (Main selection) – As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty.  Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career.  The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them, having gained the thick end of his 67 winners to date over the bigger obstacles (fences as opposed to hurdles).  Trainer Lucinda Russell has saddled two hundred winners boasting a fine career without being one of the ‘headline names’.  One for Arthur romped home (“Always travelling well” – Racing Post report) at 11/1.

Last 32 Grand National winning ages include:

  • 9-y-o (9 winners)West Tip (1986), Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (1988), Lord Gyllene (1997), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Hedgehunter (2005), Comply Or Die (2008), Mon Mome (2009) & Rule The World (2016)
  • 10-y-o (8 winners)Hallo Dandy (1984), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Monty’s Pass (2003), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Don’t Push It (2010), Ballabriggs (2011)
  • 11-y-o (8 winners)Maori Venture (1987), Mr Frisk (1990), Seagram (1991), Miinnehoma (1994), Red Marauder (2001), Neptune Collonges (2012), Auroras Encore (2013), Pineau De Re (2014). 12-y-o (3 winners) Little Polvier (1989), Royal Athlete (1995), Amberleigh House (2004)
  • Out of interest however, Eight-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals – though these were their only victories in the last 15 years

Considering a bet on how many horses will finish the Grand National course? Number of finishers during the last fourteen years (and where the favourites finished in brackets):
2017: 19 of the 40 horses completed the course (with the 8/1 favourite rewarding each way investors by finishing fourth)
2016: 16 horses the completed the course on soft ground (one of the two 8/1 joint favourites finished second, the other finished last of the 16 finishers)

2015: 19 completed the course on good to soft ground (6/1 favourite finished 5th)
2014: 18 completed the course on good to soft ground (good in places) – (2 x 10/1 joint favourites: 3rd & unseated rider)
2013: 17 completed the course on good to soft ground (11/2 favourite finished 13th)
2012: 15 finishers on good ground (8/1 joint favourites finished third and ninth)
2011: 19 finishers on good ground (15/2 favourite finished 6th)
2010: 14 completed the course under good conditions (10/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 4th)
2009: 17 finishers on good to soft ground (7/1 favourite finished seventh)
2008: 15 completed the course on good ground (7/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 6th)
2007: 12 finished on good ground (all three 8/1 co favourites failed to complete the course)
2006: Only nine horses finished on good to soft going (the two 5/1 joint favourites finished 2nd & 3rd)
2005: 21 horses finished the course on good ground (the 7/1 favourite duly obliged)
2004: 11 runners completed (4 x 10/1 co favourites: one finished 2nd–the other three failed to finish the course)
Average number of finishers during the last eleven years: 16 (exactly that number finished the course two years ago)

Total number of favourites during the study period: 25 (three winners–eight placed–seven unplaced, with seven failing to complete the course)

AINTREE STATS – GRAND NATIONAL DAY

Seven year trends relating to the Saturday of the Festival:

Leading trainers:

9 winners—Nicky Henderson (including three successful favourites)

Trainers who achieved doubles on the last day of the meeting during the last seven years:

2017—Colin Tizzard (43/1 double)

2016—Willie Mullins (24/1 treble)

2012—Nicky Henderson (154/1 four timer)

2011—Nicky Henderson (52/1 treble)

Average (Saturday) Placepot dividend (2011 – 2017 inclusive): £833.24

46 favourites in Placepot races – 13 winners – 12 placed – 21 unplaced

Highest dividend: £2,277.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced in 2013

Lowest dividend: £132.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced in 2012

Trainers of beaten favourites in all races at the three day meeting last year:

4–Nicky Henderson (6/5, 11/4, 9/4** & 8/1**)

3–Tom George (8/1***, 6/1 & 10/3)

1—Kim Bailey (6/5)

1–Enda Bolger (7/4)

1–Henry De Bromhead (10/3)

1–Warren Greatrex (9/2)

1–Malcolm Jefferson (9/4**)

1–Dr Richard Newland (8/1***)

1–Paul Nicholls (8/1**)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (8/1***)

1—Dan Skelton (4/1)

1–Colin Tizzard (2/1)

1—Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1)

1—Lucy Wadham (9/2)

1—Ian Williams (6/1)

 

GRAND NATIONAL STATS DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF LAST YEARS MEETING – IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT THE BIG DAY/RACE!

3/8—Colin Tizzard (50/1, 16/1 & 4/1) – Went on to win two races on the Saturday at 10/1 & 3/1*

3/16—Nicky Henderson (4/9*, 10/1 & 8/13*)

Negative stats for trainers from the first two days last year:

0/10—Paul Nicholls – One winner on the Saturday at 4/1

 

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

 

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