Mar 15

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 15th

 

I have replaced the ‘Betfair’ offering this evening (Thursday) for two reasons.

There is a lot going on relating to the exchanges on the eve of the big race of the week – this is nothing new.  I believe it would be confusing to offer horses tonight which might not be as popular tomorrow morning.  The world and his dog are having their tenners on this evening, whereby ‘real money’ is lost in the confusion of it all.  Things will have calmed down early doors tomorrow – before the real rush starts!

The second reason is that I have my each way bet of the week lining up tomorrow (Friday) in the ‘Albert Bartlett’ (2.50)

The horse is Ok Corral who represents Nicky Henderson, boasting a 3/5 record in this country to date.  Unexposed as an eight year old and a winner of two of those three events on soft ground,  Ok Corral was hailed as a terrific horse in the making a few years ago and now is the time for the horse to repay connections for their patience – big time.

A general 12/1 chance almost across the board tonight, Barry Geraghty’s mount in my man player on Friday, without a shred of doubt.  You don’t hear yours truly talking like this very often.

See you bright and early at 5.00 tomorrow morning!

 

Wednesday’s school report:

A disappointing day – no covering up that fact with too many placed horses, though one of the main MMA ‘selections’ (also mentioned on Tuesday evening) finished second at 16/1 in the Cross Country event – double figure placed horses we don’t mind!

That said, I did point out that Willie Mullins was the leading trainer on the second day at the Festival during the previous five years, his previous winners having included a 25/1 winner as reported.  Willie ran riot despite the fall of Douvan by securing a 545/1 double, though Gordon Elliot was not about to take a back seat this year, the popular trainer weighing in with a 468/1 treble!

I will endeavour to keep up to speed with the (Douvan dictated) non runner board whereby you might want to keep the link open today, especially with all the rain which is currently falling at Cheltenham.  As suggested last night, the ‘new ground’ (in parts) at Prestbury Park will help, but conditions will remain testing at best.

CURRENT SCORE: Ireland: 9 – UK: 5

(If you want to put it another way; Mullins/Elliott/Henderson: 10 – Others: 4)

 

LEADERBOARD OF TRAINERS AFTER DAY TWO OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

5/31–Willie Mullins (25/1, 20/1, 9/2, 9/2, 5/6*) – 11 runners today: Invitation Only & Kemboy (1.30), Un De Sceaux (2.50), Penhill, Augusta Kate, Barardys & Lets Dance (3.30) & Laurina, Salsaretta, Cut The Mustard & Pietralunga (4.50)

3/17–Gordon Elliott (33/1, 7/1 & 8/11*) – 6 runners today: Shattered Love (1.30), Delta Work & Glenloe (2.10), Apple’s Jade (3.30), The Storyteller (4.10) & Squotateur (5.30)

2/16–Nicky Henderson (Evens* & 4/6*) – 7 runners today: Terrefort (1.30), Protek des Flos & Thomas Campbell (2.10), L’Ami Swerge (3.30), Pougne Bobbi (4.10), Countister (4.50) & Sugar Baron (5.30)

1/1–Mick Channon (13/2) – No more runners at Cheltenham this week!

1/1–Patrick G Kelly (5/2*) – Only runner left this week runs today: Mall Dini (5.30)

1/4–Nick Williams (5/1*) – 1 runner today: Aubusson (5.30)

1/9–Tom George (9/1) – 2 runners today: The Worlds End (3.30) & Wild West Wind (5.30)

Trainers awaiting their first winner at the Festival  this week include:

0/10–Colin Tizzard (7 runners today)

0/8–Henry De Bromhead (5 today)

0/7–Nigel Twiston-Davies (8 today)

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHELTENHAM:

1.30: Two horses to consider at a coupled price of 10/3 – Terrefort – 9/2 (Boyle) & Kemboy – 20/1 (188) – NOW 4/1 & 14/1 RESPECTIVELY – NOW COUPLED AT 11/4

3.30: Unowhatimeanharry – 9/1 (Unibet/Betbright/188/888) – NOW 8/1

4.10: Kings Odyssey – 25/1 (188) – NOW 18/1

4.50: Marias Benefit – 7/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 6/1

5.30: Mall Dini – 11/2 (Hills/Black Type – NOW 5/1

Additional Cheltenham entry at 8.00:

2.10: Forza Milan – 14/1 (365/BetVictor)

 

HEXHAM:

3.45: Kilcullen Flem – 15/2 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor) – NOW 13/2

Additional Hexham entries at 8.00:

2.25: Kilcullen Lady – 15/2 (Betbright)

5.05: Achill Road Boy – 7/2 (PP)

 

TOWCESTER:

2.35: American Life – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/PP/Betfred/Tote/Boyle) – NOW 4/1

4.35: Bisoubisou – 15/2 (Ladbrokes/Marathon) – NOW 13/2

Additional Towcester entry at 8.00:

1.55: Billy Hiocks – 8/1 (PP)

 

CHELMSFORD:

5.55: Bogart – 8/1 (Mrathon/PP) – NOW 13/2

6.30: Silver Penny – 17/2 (365) – NOW 7/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

8.00: Sam Missile – 7/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

8.30: Sir Ottoman – 28/1 (PP)

 

STAT ATTACK DURING CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEEK (5 YEAR STUDY UNLESS STATED) 

CHELTENHAM – THURSDAY:

33 races – 9 winning favourites – 17/33 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £245.64

Highest dividend: £496.80 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £58.10 (2017)

Every winning trainer on the Thursday during the study period:

8 winners—Willie Mullins (7 winning favourites + 10/1) – 11 runners: Invitation Only & Kemboy (1.30), Un De Sceaux (2.50), Penhill, Augusta Kate, Barardys & Lets Dance (3.30) & Laurina, Salsaretta, Cut The Mustard & Pietralunga (4.50)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (25/1, 15/2 & 7/1) – 2 runners: Forza Milan (2.10) & Go Conquer (4.10)

3—David Pipe (12/1, 9/1 & 3/1*) – 3 runners: Taj Badalandabd & Dell’ Arca (2.50) & King’s Socks (4.10)

2—Patrick G Kelly (14/1 & 11/1) – 1 runner: Mall Dini 5.30

2—Colin Tizzard (7/2 & Evens*) – 7 runners: Finian’s Oscar & West Approach (1.30), Cue Card (2.50) & Ultragold, Quite By Chance, Shanahan’s Turn & Viconte Du Noyer (4.10)

1 each for: Venetia Williams (50/1), Stuart Edmunds (40/1), Kim Bailey (33/1), Tony Martin (20/1), Alan King (16/1), C A Murphy (16/1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1), Warren Greatrex (14/1), P Maher (14/1), Noel Meade (14/1), Jim Culloty (12/1), Nicky Henderson (9/1), Charlie Byrnes (17/2), Gordon Elliott (9/2) & Philip Hobbs (9/2)

 

HEXHAM (Four year study – meeting abandoned in 2013):

28 races – 7 winning favourites – 25/28 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £350.33

Highest dividend: £898.40 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £31.50 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Lucinda Russell (14/1, 8/1, 9/2 & 9/4*) – 6 runners today: Ceegem (2.25), Haul Us In (3.05), Itstimeforapint (3.45), Catchthemoonlight (4.25), Orioninverness (5.05) & Behindthelines (5.40)

 

TOWCESTER:

35 races – 15 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £57.00

Highest dividend: £157.20 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £17.00 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Venetia Williams (5/1, 10/11* & 4/7*) – 3 runners today: Commodore (1.55), Call Carlo (3.15) & Longhousesignora (3.55)

 

CHELMSFORD (Three year study – since opening the track):

22 races – 8 winning favourites – All 22 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £89.43

Highest dividend: £133.50 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £60.50 (2017)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Four trainers are on the two winner mark but the pick might prove to be Derek Shaw this evening, if only from a speculative (value for money) perspective as Derek saddled three outsiders on the card; Dynamo Walt (7.00), Samphire Coast (8.30) & Emigrated (9.00)

 

TRAINERS WITH MOST WINNERS IN THURSDAY’S RACES AT CHELTENHAM:

1.30: JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (4 wins) – 2 runners: Invitation Only & Kemboy

2.10: Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – Jonjo O’Neill (4 wins) – 1 runner: Forza Milan

2.50: Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – Five trainers on the two winner mark – No outstanding record to report

3.30: Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) – Paul Nicholls (4 wins) – 1 runner: Old Guard

4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) – Nicky Henderson (Pougne Bobbi) & ‘Team Pipe’ (King’s Socks) (4 winners apiece)

4.50: Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – Willie Mullins has trained the only two winners to date – 4 declred: Laurina, Salsaretta, Cut The Mustard & Pietralunga

5.30: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup A R Handicap Chase – ‘Team Pipe’ (5) – No runners this time around

 

EUROPA CUP FOOTBALL TONIGHT – LIVE ON BT SPORT – 7.45 KO (BEST PRICES):

ARSENAL V AC MILAN

21/20–Arsenal (Skybet/Betfred/Betway)

11/4–Draw (Betway)

11/4–AC Milan (Unibet)

Half time betting: 

17/10–Arsenal (Hills/Sunbets/Black Type)

13/10–Draw (Betfair/PP/Betway)

13/4–AC Milan (Marathon)

HALF TIME – FULL TIME::

47/20–Arsenal/Arsenal (BetStars)

31/2–Arsenal/Draw (188)

40/1–Arsenal/AC Milan (Marathon & 188)

 

23/5–Draw/Arsenal (Marathon)

6/1–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

87/10–Draw/AC Milan (Marathon)

 

25/1–AC Milan/Arsenal (Skybet/Betfred/Tote)

16/1–AC Milan/Draw (BetVictor)

11/2–AC Milan/AC Milan (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/BetVictor)

 

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