Feb 15

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 15th

Wednesday’s school report:

Three (well backed) MMA winners yesterday, but there is no disguising the fact that the runner up Golden Footsteprs (backed from 16/1 into 6/1) kind of reflected our day when the jockey arguably gave the horse a little too much to day but then again, I’m mindful that we live in a modern day ‘blame culture’ society and I am as guilty as the next person when things go awry!

Tactical Manoeuvre (3.45 Fontwell) was a good winner (highlighted the previous week/day) for us at 15/2 eleven days ago and as on that occasion, there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue on the exchanges overnight.  There was early support for Alex Dunn’s raider on the relevant morning of the race before drifting on course. 

Bet365 offer 6/1 in the dead of night whereas Ladbrokes are as short as 4/1.  I’ll leave the rest up to you but if those of you who won money on the well documented ‘tip’ want to go in again with the bookies money, I’ve offered you the facts!  Positive factor: Alex has won with two of her last five runners – Negative factor: TM faces a hot pot in Minellatillmorning.  Forecast ‘saver’ option?

I’ve taken some flack these last few days and no mistake but that’s the trouble with this type of service, ‘punters’ have short memories.  On the other hand, I appreciate that winners are not flowing as they were a few weeks ago but all services like this have their ‘quiet periods’.

As always the advice is to trim down the stakes when things are going against you and up the ante when the tide is turning – and it will turn.  Best of luck today…

P.S. The  most expensive service I offered initially cost £75.00 (24p a day) for a ten month service which includes a ‘free’ statistical guise to (and during) the World Cup – the Racing Post for every day during that period (without any price rise) is £703.80.

 

THURSDAY:

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES NOW UPDATED + 4 ADDITIONS

FONTWELL:

4.20: Turban – 11/2 (PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 9/2

Additional Fontwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

LEICESTER:

1.40: Skipping On – 3/1 (Hills) – NOW 5/2

2.15: Grow Nasa Grow – 15/2 (PP) – NOW 6/1

3.20: Chirico Vallis – 9/4 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betfair/PP) – NOW 2/1

Additional Leicester entry at 8.00:

2.45: Crosspark – 11/4 (888)

 

KELSO:

1.55: McGowans Pass – 13/8 – 365/BetVictor) – NOW 6/4

2.25: Chti Balko – 9/2 (Hills) – NOW 7/2

4.05: Winged Crusader – 20/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 16/1

4.40: Dr Hooves – 3/1 (PP) – NOW 5/2

Additional Kelso entry at 8.00:

3.35: Bruichladdich – 5/1 (PP & 888)

 

CHELMSFORD:

5.55: Tagur – 11/2 (365/Marathon/PP) – NOW 4/1

6.30: Azam – 7/1 (365) – NOW 6/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

7.00: Finisher – 9/1 (PP)

7.30: Anarsan – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Betway)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

8/25—Henry Daly (+17) – 1 at Leicester: Tara Mist (3.55)

7/18—Rose Dobiin (+15) – 3 at Kelso: Planet Nine (3.35) & Vintage Glen & Hitman Fred (4.40)

5/18—Kevin Ryan (+68) – 2 at Chelmsford: Tagur (5.55) & Fisher (7.00)

4/11—Colin Tizzard – 2 at Fontwell: Bramble Brook (3.10) & Jaytrack Parkhomes (4.55)

3/5—Donald McCain (+13) – 2 at Kelso: Ofcourseiwill (1.55) & Chti Balko (2.25)

3/7—Laura Mongan (+22) – 2 today: Skipping On (1.40 Leicester) & Ted’s Brother (5.55 Chelmsford)

3/7—Ed Walker (+3) – 1 at Chelmsford: Legal History (7.00)

3/8—Rebecca Bastiman (+41) – 2 at Chelmsford: Harbour Patrol (8.00) & Be Bold (8.30)

Last two runners have won: Keith Dalgleish (+7) – 2 at Kelso: Taxmeifyoucan (1.55) & Mac N Cheese (3.35)

Last two runners have won—Zoe Davison (+28) – 2 at Leicester: Dylanseoghan (2.15) & Frank N Fair (3.55)

2/3—Clive Cox (+3) – 1 at Meydan: Tis Marvellous (4.15)

2/3—Ed Dunlop (+4) – 1 at Chelmsford: Arnarson (7.30)

2/3—Phil McEntee (+16) – 4 at Chelmsford: Charles Vane (7.00), Spare Parts (7.30), Tasaaboq (8.00) & Justice Rock (8.30)

2/5—Alex Dunn (+8) – 4 runners: Tactical Manoeuvre (3.45 Fontwell), Trafalgar Rock (4.30 Leicester), Maraakib (5.55 Chelmsford) & Thahab Ifraj (6.30 Chelmsford)

29 runners in race order via the in form trainer list:

1.40: Skipping On

1.55: Ofcourseiwill & Taxmeifyoucan

2.15: Dylanseughan

2.25: Chti Balko

3.10: Bramble Brook

3.35: Planet Nine & Mac N Cheese

3.45: Tactical Manoeuvre

3.55: Frank N Fair & Tara Mist

4.15: Tis Marvellous

4.30: Trafalgar Rock

4.40: Vintage Glen & Hitman Fred

4.55: Jaytrack Parkhomes

5.55: Tagur, Maraakib & Ted’s Brother

6.30: Thahab Ifraj

7.00: Finisher, Charles Vane & Legal History

7.30: Arnarlon & Spare Parts

8.00: Harbour Patrol & Tasaaboq

8.30: Be Bold & Justice Rock

 

THURSDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

KELSO:

34 races – 14 winning favourites – 31/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £222.28

Highest dividend: £811.10 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £34.10 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

8 winners—Nicky Richards (8/1, 9/2, 3/1, 14/5, 5/2, 11/10*, 4/5* & 1/4*) – 3 runners today: That’s Life (1,55 – has alternative option at Fakenham tomorrow), Better Getalong (2.25) & Cultrum Abbey (4.05)

 

A/W STAT REPORT – CARRYING ON WHERE I LEFT OFF YESTERDAY – THE FOURTH BATCH OF TRAINERS WHICH WILL CARRY ON THROUGH FRIDAY GIVING YOU STATS OF 25 STABLES.

The listing of trainers is governed by the top trainers as listed in 2017 – there will be five trainers listed each day this week until Friday.

TRAINER – RALPH BECKETT:

Chelmsford: 9/53 (slight profit)

Kempton: 38/243 (+28)

Lingfield: 37/143 (loss of 3)

Newcastle: 3/10 (+3)

Southwell: 8/39 (+11)

Wolves: 25/109 (+21)

TRAINER – KARL BURKE:

Chelmsford: 1/41 (loss of 36)

Kempton: 8/96 (loss of 27)

Lingfield: 8/72 (+3)

Newcastle: 14/127 (+19)

Southwell: 25/110 (+103)

Wolves: 18/139 (loss of 24

TRAINER – CHARLIE HILLS:

Chelmsford: 10/79 (loss of 9)

Kempton: 21/161 (loss of 28)

Lingfield: 20/136 (loss of 25)

Newcastle: 6/20 (+4)

Southwell: 3/24 (loss of 16)

Wolves: 20/123 (loss of 16)

TRAINER – ROBERT COWELL:

Chelmsford: 10/88 (loss of 16)

Kempton: 6/87 (loss of 30

Lingfield: 14/79 (loss of 7)

Newcastle: 5/25 (loss of 6)

Southwell: 9/57 (+9)

Wolves: 16/125 (loss of 50)

TRAINER – MICK CHANNON:

Chelmsford: 10/53 (+30)

Kempton: 10/114 (loss of 11)

Lingfield: 12/117 (loss of 79)

Newcastle: 1/19 (loss of 10)

Southwell: 0/1

Wolves: 18/141 (loss of 32)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – (THURSDAY & FRIDAY):

THURSDAY:

KELSO:

1.55: Nick Alexander has won two if the last three renewals when represented.  The trainer held three entries at the penultimate stage but now relies on Eagle Ridge.

2.25: Nicky Richards only held one entry (Better Getalong) at the four day stage, having won two of the last five runnings of this event.

FRIDAY:

SANDOWN:

3.00 (Scheduled time for the Royal Artillery Gold Cup): Paul Nicholls holds one entry (Orbasa) for a race he has won three times during the last decade.

3.30 (Schedule time of the NH Novice Hurdle event): Nicky Henderson holds three entries having won the race three times during the last decade.  Jonjo O’Neill has two entries, given that he has won two of the last four renewals when represented.

FAKENHAM:

2.45 (Scheduled time of the NH Novice Hurdle qualifier): Nicky Henderson has won two of the last three contests when represented and Nicky held four options at the penultimate stage.

3.20 (Scheduled time of the Class 3 Handicap Chase): Lucy Wadham has won with her last two runners in the race, the trainer holding just one option (Mr Love) at the time of writing.

Be lucky as always but as ever – Be aware!

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