Feb 01

Mal Boyle stats – Thursday 1st

3.00 WINCANTON – DEVELOPING INTO AN INTERESTING RACE RELATING TO PRICES AT THE TIME OF WRITING:

On the Road – 6/1 (Betbright) – Justification – 12/1 (365) = coupled price of 7/2 about the two outsiders in the five strong field.

Bet365 are out on a limb at 12/1 about Gary Moore’s Justification , whilst the 6/1 (Betbright) offer regarding On The Road looks a tad big from my viewpoint.

Justifcation would have to turn the clock back a while to actually score but 12/1 represents a little value, whereas On The Road was a winner of five  of his seven races last term and reverts back to hurdling today.

I expect both horses to start at shorter prices – just for your consideration, pure and simple.

UPDATED PRICES FOR THE PAIR MENTIONED ABOVE: 5/1 – ONE THE ROAD & 9/1 JUSTIFICATION – COUPLED PRICE NOW DOWN TO 11/4

Wednesday’s school report:

There were so many good things to report from yesterday in ALL sectors of the offering but hey, let’s just stay positive and get rolling today – there is a lot to get through!

A huge welcome to newcomers who have joined for February/March – sincere thanks for taking the plunge – hoping that you are well rewarded for your commitment!  One point to offer is for you to keep the page open (Price Alerts etc) until 9.30 (ish) as it is usually around that time that I down tools for the day.

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES NOW UPDATED + 2 ADDITIONS AT WINCANTON

WINCANTON:

1.50: Persian Delight – 2/1 (PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 13/8

2.25: Inch Lala – 33/1 (Hills – worth throwing some loose change at Inch Lala at the price) – NOW 25/1

3.35: Vic De Touzain – 12/1 (365/Hills/BetVictor) – NOW 9/1

Additional Wincanton entries at 8.00:

1.20: Samson The Man – 18/1 (365 – worth some loose change?) 

4.45: Dandolo Du Gite – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

TOWCESTER:

2.50: Try It Sometime – 16/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/1

4.00: Skipping On – 20/1 (365 – could go either way but 365 are out on a limb at the time of writing – small stakes advised) – NOW 16/1

Additional Towcester entries at 8.00:

NONE

SOUTHWELL:

2.40: Shades Of Mist – 6/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Jasi – 9/2 (Ladbrokes – interesting on first run for Ivan Furtado who has won with two of his last four runners)

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE 

KEMPTON:

5.55: Freebe Rocks – 11/4 (Betfair) – NOW 9/4

7.30: Bazooka – 20/1 (365 – speculative maybe but at the price – worth a minimum stake investment from my viewpoint, especially after yesterday’s good results)

8.30: Heron – 11/1 (Marathon) – NOW 9/1

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

NONE

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

11/35—Nicky Henderson (+6) – 2 at Towcester: The Vocalist (1.40) & Du Destin (3.25)

10/33—Charlie Appleby (+1) – 7 at Meydan: Bay Of Poets & Bravo Zolo (3.05), Boynton (4.15), D’bai & Jungle Cat (4.50) & Eynhallow & Walton Street (6.00)

8/27—Warren Greatrex (+4) – 1 at Wincanton: Aardwolf (1.20)

7/21—Henry Daly (+16) – 1 at Towcester: Petronella Manners (1.40)

6/10—Anthony Honeyball (+11) – 4 at Wincanton: East Wing (1.20), Drops Of Jupiter & Solstice Twilight (2.25) & Hideaway Vic (4.45)

6/13—Chris Gordon (+42) – 1 at Kempton: Night Generation (8.30)

6/17—Roger Fell (+61) – 2 at Southwell: Dapper Man (1.30) & Kody Ridge (4.25)

6/19—Gary Moore (+5) – 4 runners: Grand Myla (1.30 Southwell), San Pedro De Senam (1.50 Wincanton), Justification (3.00 Wincanton) & Guards Chapel (8.30 Kempton)

6/24—Harry Fry – 1 today – Rosemany Russet (2.25 Wincanton)

5/10—Saeed Bin Suroor (+15) – 6 at Meydan: Benbati (3.05), Steady Pace & Dubai One (3.40), Dream Castle (4.50) & Gold Star & Huge Future (6.00)

5/15—Nick Williams (+33) – 1 at Wincanton: Siruh Du Lac (3.35)

5/20—Keith Dalgleish (+40) – 1 at Southwell: Ray Purchase (2.40)

4/7—Archie Watson (+37) – 2 at Kempton: Princess De Line (6.30) & Pulsating (7.00)

4/13—Neil Mulholland (10) – 4 today: 3 at Wincanton: Attractive Liason (1.320), Inch Lala (2.25) & Dandolo Du Gite (4.4) + 1 at Kempton: Hollywood Dream (5.55)

4/15—Derek Shaw – 1 chance: Born For Prosecco (2.40 Southwell)

4/19—Henry Oliver (+3) – 3 at Towcester: Love Lane (1.40), Doc Carver (2.15) & Dr Des (3.25)

3/11—Tony Carroll (+14) – 2 runners: Heurtevent (4.00 Towcester) & Mister Music (4.25 Southwell)

3/13—Gay Kelleway (+27) – 1 at Kempton: Elite Treaty (6.30)

Last two runners have won—Noel Williams (+6) – 1 at Wincanton: Samson The Man (1.20)

2/3—Brett Johnson (+27) – 2 at Kempton: Very Honest (3.00) & Heron (8.30)

47 runners in race order via the in form trainer list:

1.20: East Wing, Attractive Liason, Samson The Man & Aardwolf

1.30: Dapper Man & Grand Mila

1.40: Love Lane, Petronella Manners & The Vocalist

1.50: San Pedro De Senam

2.15: Doc Carver

2.25: Drops Of Jupiter, Rosemary Russet, Inch Lala & Solstice Twilight

2.40: Born For Prosecco & Ray Purchase

3.00: Very Honest & Justification

3.05: Bay Of Poets, Benbati & Bravo Zolo

3.25: Dr Des & Du Destin

3.35: Siruh Du Lac

3.40: Steady Pace & Dubai One

4.00: Heurtevent

4.15: Boynton

4.25: Kody Ridge & Mister Music

4.45: Hideaway Vic & Dandolo Du Gite

4.50: D’bai, Dream Castle & Jungle Cat

5.55: Hollywood Dream

6.00: Eynhallow, Gold Star, Huge Future & Walton Street

6.30: Princess De Lune & Elite Treaty

7.00: Pulsating

8.30: Heron, Night Generation & Guards Chapel

 

THURSDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

TOWCESTER (Four year study – meeting abandoned in 2014):

26 races – 10 winning favourites – All 26 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £96.00

Highest dividend: £231.20 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £6.20 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Unfortunately the leading trainer David Pipe (three winners at 6/1, 6/1 & 7/4*) is not represented today and of the three trainers to have snared a brace of gold medallists during the study period, only Ben Pauling has secured a double in any one year.  Ben scored with 11/4 and 13/8* chances back in 2015 (17/2 twosome) and he has one runner on today’s card, namely Daveron (4.00).  Out of interest, Ben’s somewhat enigmatic inmate is his only potential runner until Monday at the earliest.

WINCANTON:

34 races – 14 winning favourites – 30/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £370.06

Highest dividend: £1,350.50 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £38.30 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Venetia Williams (9/4, 9/4**, 5/4** & 8/11* – all within the alst four years) – 1 runner today: Vic De Touzain (3.35)

KEMPTON (A/W) – UPDATE VIA THEIR LAST FIVE MEETINGS THIS YEAR:

37 races – 10 winning favourites – 34/37 winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

The leading trainer during the period is Simon Dow on the three winner mark (9/2, 9/2 & 2/1*) though unfortunately Simon is not represented at Kempton today.  That said, I note that he has just the one runner pencilled in at the track for Saturday’s fixture, namely Ojala in the scheduled 7.15 contest.

SOUTHWELL (A/W) – UPDATE VIA THEIR LAST FIVE MEETINGS THIS YEAR:

32 races – 7 winning favourites – 26/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Unfortunately the only trainer to have saddled three winners during the study period (Antony Brittain at 6/1, 11/2 & 7/4*) is not represented today.  The next Southwell meeting after today is scheduled for February 5th.

 

AHEAD OF THE GAME – TODAY:

TOWCESTER:

2.50: All eight winners during the last decade have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include two winning favourites.

4.00: Seven of the last eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 9/1 (one winning favourite).

WINCANTON:

1.20: Three of the four market leaders have won, albeit the 2/7 favourite in 2016 was beaten.

2.25: Five of the last six favourites have won, the other gold medallist having scored at just 6/4.

3.00: Only one favourite has won via four renewals to date, the other winners scoring at 18/1 & 16/1 (twice).

3.35: Seven-year-olds have won three of the five renewals, this year’s representatives being Kayf Adventure and Le Boizero.  The latter named raider is saddled by Robert Walford who has secured two of the last three contests.

4.10: Favourites come into the race on a hat trick, whilst all seven winners have scored at a top price of 13/2.

4.45: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four (and five of the last eight) renewals.  Five of the last six gold medallists carried a minimum eight of 11-3.

SOUTHWELL:

1.30: We still await the first winning favourite following four contests, whilst all four winners have carried nine stones or more.

2.05: The last five (and eight of the last ten) winners were burdened with a minimum of nine stones.  Mick Appleby (Dream Serenade & The Lock Keeper) has saddled two of the last three winners.

KEMPTON:

No qualifying races – short on long term history.

Be lucky but as always – Be aware!

 

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