Jan 25

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 25th

 

Wednesday’s school report:

As Twittered last night: Would our 33/1 chance Mutineer (second in the 6.45 at Kempton) have won had he not bolted to the start? We will never know, though placed horses at 33’s are okay by me! 8/1 winner (put up at 5.00 yesterday morning) which was returned at 7/2 – let’s hope for a little more luck in running today.

Beating the books in no uncertain terms just now but not getting that secondary bit of luck we need –  It will come…

THURSDAY TIMELINE COMPLETED – LAST ADDITION WAS MY LATEST ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ FGEATURE WHICH COVERS TODAY THROUGH TO SATURDAY (INCLUSIVE):

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – PRICES NOW UPDATED (OFFERING AVARAGE PRICES AT 8.00) + 4 RACES OF FURTHER INTEREST

KELSO:

None as yet

Additional Kelso entries at 8.00:

12.45: Craig Star – 7/2 (PP)

4.05: Elvis Mail – 9/1 (Betfair) 

WARWICK:

2.00: Yanmare – 4/1 (Generally available) – NOW 10/3

2.35: Allthegearnoidea – 18/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 14/1

Additional Warwick entries at 8.00:

Ladbrokes are offering Even money (coupled) about Night Of Glory (2/1) & Falcon Son (5/1)  – with both prices standing out from the crowd at the time of writing.  They have as the saying goes, ‘taken’ a view about the race – are they right or wrong?

SOUTHWELL:

1.05: Reason To Believe – 20/1 (Batfair/PP) – NOW 16/1

1.35: Elegant Joan – 200/1 (PP) – Small/loose change investment! – NOW 66/1

2.10: Zylan – 6/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 5/1

2.45: Epitaph – 10/3 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/PP) – NOW 5/2

3.20: Sharp Reminder – 9/2 (PP) – NOW 10/3

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

 3.55: Zoravan – 13/2 (PP)

CHELMSFORD:

6.30: Tabernas – 9/4 (Ladbrokes/Hills) – NOW 15/8

7.30: Mambo Dancer – 2/1 (Hills/Sunbets/PP) – NOW 7/4

9.00: The Commondatore – 9/1 (Betfair/PP) – looks far too big in the ‘getting out stakes’! – NOW 6/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00: None

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

9/24—Olly Murphy (+25) – 1 at Warwick: Swaffham Bulbeck (12.55)

8/26—Charlie Appleby (+3) – 3 runners: Gold Town (4.15 Meydan), Tabernas (6.30 Chelmsford) & Banksea (6.35 Chelmsford)

8/31—Tom Lacey (+28) – 1 at Warwick: Polydora (2.35)

6/13—Donald McCain (+8) – 4 runners: 3 at Kelso: Craig Star (12.45), Whitsundays (1.45) & Shantuluze (4.05) + 1 at Warwick: Whiskey Chaser (2.00)

5/13—Roger Fell (+60) – 2 at Southwell: Zylan (2.10) & Muqarred (3.55)

5/14—Henry Daly (15) – 3 at Warwick: The Artful Cobbler (2.00), Crucial Role (2.35) & Stoney Mountain (3.45)

5/17—Emma Lavelle (+18) – 2 at Warwick: Water Wagtail (2.00) & Not Normal (3.45)

5/19—David Simcock – 5 runners: 3 at Meydan: Singyoursong (4.50), Polybius (6.00) & Majeed (6.35) + 2 at Chelmsford: Ascot Day (7.00) & Kaaba Stone (8.30)

4/12—Brian Ellison (+2) – 1 at Southwell: Buthelezi (1.05)

4/14—Keith Dalgleish (+29) – 1 at Southwell: Zoravan (3.55)

4/14—Archie Watson (+1) – 3 chances: Erinyes (2.45 Southwell), Mach One (3.55 Southwell) & Absolute Blast (4.50 Meydan)

4/17—Karl Burke (+23) – 1 at Southwell: Helen Sherbet (3.20)

3/4—Dan Skelton (+2) – 4 at Warwick: Falcon Sun (12.55), Molly The Dolly (1.25), Itsnonofurbusiness (2.35) & No Getaway (3.45)

3/6—Kim Bailey (+4) – 1 at Chelmsford: Milord (7.30)

3/7—Tom Dascombe (+24) – 1 at Southwell: Mr Christopher (3.55)

3/7—Neil Mulholland (+10) – 1 at Warwick: Fingerontheswitch (2.35)

3/8—Scott Dixon (+32) – 5 at Southwell: Shortbackandsides & Samovar (1.35), Crosse Fire (2.10), Ipcress File (3.20) & Break The Silence (3.55)

3/8—Derek Shaw – 2 at Chelmsford: Samphire Coast (8.00) & Treaty Of Rome (9.00)

3/9—John Gosden – 2 at Chelmsford: Culability (6.30) & The Mums (8.30)

3/10—David C Griffiths (+11) – 3 at Southwell: Elegant Joan (1.35), Pearl Acclaim & Archimedes (2.10)

3/12—Mark Johnston (+1) – 4 at Chelmsford: The Jungle VIP (6.30), Mambo Dancer (7.30), Zadorra (8.30) & Poet’s Society (9.00)

Last two runners on the flat have won—Robert Stephens (+3) – 1 at Chelmsford: Espresso Freddo (9.00)

2/3—Davis Barron (+12) – 2 chances: Scuzeme (2.10 Southwell) & Fast Track (7.00 Chelmsford)

2/3—Julie Camacho (+11) – 1 at Southwell: Planetaria (3.55)

54 runners in race order via the in form trainer list:

12,45: Craig Star

12.55: Falcon Sun & Swaffham Bulbeck

1.05: Buthelezi

1.25: Molly The Dolly

1.35: Elegant Joan, Shortbackandsides & Samover

1.45: Whitsundays

2.00: Water Wagtail, Whiskey Chaser & The Artful Cobbler

2.10: Zylan, Pearl Acclaim, Scuzeme, Crosse Fire & Archimedes

2.35: Itsnonofurbusiness, Polydora, Fingerontheswitch & Crucial Role

2.45: Erinyes

3.20: Ipcress File & Helen Sherbet

3.45: Not Normal, Stoney Mountain & No Getaway

3.55: Muqarred, Mr Christopher, Mach One, Zoravan, Break The Silence & Planetaria

4.05: Shanyuluze

4.15: Gold Town

4.50: Singyoursong & Absolute Blast

6.00: Polybius

6.30: Tabernas, Culpability & The Jungle VIP

6.35: Majeed & Banksea

7.00: Ascot Day & Fast Track

7.30: Mambo Dancer & Milord

8.00: Samphire Coast

8.30: Kaaba Stone, The Mums & Zadorra

9.00: Espresso Freddo, Treaty Of Rome & Poet’s Society

 

THURSDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

WARWICK:

33 races – 16 winning favourites – All 33 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £36.72

Highest dividend: £53.70 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £12.40 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

The only trainer to have saddled more than two winners during the period (Philip Hobbs o the four winner mark) is not represented on Thursday.  Of the seven trainer to have saddled a brace of gold medallists, Henry Daly is the only trainer who achieved the feat in the same (2012) season.  Henry has declared three runners on the card: The Artful Cobbler (2.00), Crucial Role (2.35) & Stoney Mountain (3.45)

 

KELSO UPDATE – Unfortunately, none of the leading trainers as pointed out in my recent Scottish/Welsh racecourse study are represented at Kelso today.

All the trainers listed below have a minimum 30% strike rate (as was required to be included in the list) but the long journeys they have to make to the venue at this time of year suggests why they are only conspicuous by their absence this afternoon.

I have, nonetheless, offered the list for you to note for future reference.  Trainers listed in italics feature in both lists pertaining to this season and the last five years.

The next relevant meeting is at Ayr next Wednesday (31st) when I will offer a similar update, hopefully with runners to consider on that occasion!

This season:

2/4—Tom George

1/3—Paul Nicholls

Last 5 seasons:

7/18—Paul Nicholls

4/7—Nicky Henderson

3/7—Tom George

2/5—Dr Richard Newland

1/2—Warren Greatrex

1/2—Ian Williams

1/3—Jonjo O’Neill

 

AHEAD OF THE GAME:

TODAY (TWO RACES AT GOWRAN PARK IN IRELAND):

Galmoy Hurdle (1.50):

The last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 7/2.  Willie Mullins has saddled three of the last seven winners, though Gordon Elliott has his team in great form just now having won with five of his last 11 runners. Six-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals.

Thyestes Chase (3.00):

Eight of the last eleven contests have gone to older raiders (nine or more), whilst eleven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won.  Eight of the winners during that period have been returned in double figures, ranging between 10/1 & 25/1.

FRIDAY:

DONCASTER:

Class 5 Handicap Hurdle (Scheduled for 3.40): Six-year-olds have won three of the four renewals, whilst all four gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-1.

HUNTINGDON:

Class 4 Novice Hurdle (Scheduled for 1.00): Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via the last nine renewals. Favourites of one description or another have won four of the last six contests.  Nicky Henderson held five options at the time of writing in a race which he has won with his last two runners when represented.

Novice Handicap Hurdle (19 furlongs – Scheduled for 1.35): Six-year-olds have won five of the six contests, whilst the top priced winner to date was returned at 9/1.  Just one winning (15/8) favourite to report thus far.

Class 2 25 furlong handicap hurdle (Scheduled for 3.15): We still await the first successful market leader following four renewals, three of which have been won by six-year-olds.  All four winners have carried a maximum burden of 10.10.

Class 4 20 furlong handicap hurdle (Scheduled for 3.50): Five of the six winners have carried 11-1 or more, whilst six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five and six-year-olds have equally shared four of the last five contests.

SATURDAY (CHELTENHAM DETAILS WERE OFFERED ON WEDNESDAY):

DONCASTER:

Class 4 19 furlong handicap hurdle (Scheduled for 12.55): Alan King is on a hat trick in the contest with the trainer holding just one option at the time of writing, namely Amadeus Rox.  Only one of the seven favourites has scored with four of the last six winners having been returned at 16/1 (twice) & 11/1 (twice).

Grade 2 two mile chase (Scheduled for 1.30): Six and seven-year-old have equally shared all six renewals.  The top priced winner to date was recorded at just 7/2.

‘River Don’ Novice Hurdle (Scheduled for 2.05): Nicky Henderson has won with his last two runners in the contest with the trainer holding two options at the time of writing.  Favourites of one description or another have won three of the seven contests with a top priced gold medallists having emerged at 8/1.

Grade 2 Mares Hurdle (Scheduled for 2.40): Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which include three successful market leaders.

Three mile Listed handicap chase (Scheduled for 3.15): Alan King only has one 20/1 chance (seven-year-old Label Des Obeaux) potentially engaged at the time of writing, the trainer coming into the race on a hat trick this time around.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst six of the last seven winners carried a maximum burden of 11-2.

Class 2 two mile handicap chase (Scheduled for 3.50): We still await the first successful favourite following five contests.  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four, whilst the top priced winner to date was returned at 12/1.

UTTOXETER:

Conditional jockey’s event (Scheduled for 1.45): Favourites have won all three renewals to date.

LINGFIELD:

Class 3 one mile handicap event (Scheduled for 2.00): Five-year-olds have won four of the last six contests, whilst all seven gold medallists have carried 8-13 or more.  Favourites of one description or another have won three of the last four, whilst a top priced winner of 12/1 has emerged thus far.

Class 3 12 furlong handicap (Scheduled for 3.10): The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, whilst four-year-olds have claimed five of the last nine contests.

Seven furlong maiden event (Scheduled for 3.45): Three-year-olds have won nine of the last ten renewals.  Three favourites have prevailed during the ten year period when nine winners scored at a top price of 5/1.

KEMPTON:

Class 4 six furlong handicap (Scheduled for 7.15): Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-5 come to the gig having won the last five (and seven of the last eight) renewals.  Mark Johnston has only been represented in two recent contests in 2010 & 2016, having won both races.  Emilia James is his only potential runner this time around.

Class 6 12 furlong handicap contests (Scheduled for 8.45): John Butler won both renewals in 2014 & 2017 in recent years (his only runners during the period), with the trainer holding just the one entry at the time of writing, namely Genuine Approval.

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

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