Jun 12

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 12th

Monday’s school report:

3 MMA WINNERS at 12/1 (returned at 4/1), 11/1 (9/1) & 4/1 (11/4) backed up by seven second placed horses, one of which was a 20/1 chance which was returned at 6/1!

Other runner ups included those at 8/1 (7/2), 9/1 (8/1) and 6/1 (7/2) – smashing up prices all day…

Let’s hope we turn some of those ‘silver selections’ into gold today.

 

APPROXIMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

4.15: TUESDAY STAT ATTACK (all 4 meetings – 5 including Lingfield’s split card) – DONE

5.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.45: MAL’S SALISBURY ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

6.45: US OPEN GOLF THIS WEEK– BEST PRICES – DONE

7.15: PRICES FOR THE OPENING WORLD CUP MATCH ON THURSDAY (4.00 KO) – DONE

7.40: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES/ADDITIONS – DONE WITH 2 ADDITIONS

 

  • There is an ‘under round’ book in one of the markets in place for the Russia/Saudi game on Thursday – see below!

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

LINGFIELD (Mixed turf & A/W):

6.20: Crimean Queen – 3/1 (365/Hills)

7.20: Howman – 7/4 (Sunbets)

7.50 – Ashazuri – 4/1 (365)

8.20: Caravela – 9/2 (Hills/Marathon) – You might have to be quick with this one this morning!

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SALISBURY:

2.00: Certain Lad – 7/2 (Hills/Sunbets)

3.00: Honourbound – 25/1 (365/Ladbrokes)

3.30: Lucifigous – 15/2 (Betfair)

4.00: Sweet Charity – 11/4 (Generally available)

4.30: Recordman – 7/2 (365/Skybet/888/BetVictor)

5.00: Outofthequestion – 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

5.30: Letmestopyouthere – 6/1 (Betfair)

Additional Salisbury entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

6.40: Alf n Dor – 9/1 (Skybet/Hills/BetVictor)

8.10: Ballyalton – 9/1 (Skybet/Hills/Betway/BetVictor)

8.40: Mont Royal – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

THIRSK:

2.45: Two horses to consider: Ravenswood – 9/2 (Generally available) & Exclusive Waters – 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.45: Ghost (Skybet/Betway/BetVictor)

Additional Thirsk entries at 8.00:

3.45: Lukoutoldmakezebak – 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.45: Champarisi – 4/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/Unibet)

 

 

TUESDAY STAT ATTACKS:

LINGFIELD (Turf):

43 races – 13 winning favourites – 42/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainers at Lingfield this season:

3/4—Jonathan Portman (11/4**, 7/4* & 11/10*) – 1 runner: Ashazuri (7.50)

3/7—Andrew Balding (3/1***, 2/1 & 7/4*) – 1 runner: Hidden Steps (8.20)

 

LINGFIELD (Recent A/W findings):

39 recent races – 17 winning favourites – 33/39 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the period:

3 winners—Archie Watson (5/2*, 10/11* & 2/7*) – 1 runner: So Brave (6.20)

 

SALISBURY:

28 races – 7 winning favourites – 26/28 winners scored at a top price of 16/1

Leading trainers at Salisbury this season:

4/10—Mick Channon (6/1, 5/1, 7/2 & 15/8*) – 4 runners: Dr Smolder & Certain Lad (2.00), Duba Plains (3.30) & Dock Of The Bay (5.00)

 

SOUTHWELL (NH):

28 races – 9 winning favourites – 27/28 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading at Southwell (NH) this season:

6/14—Dan Skelton (Prices ranging between 9/2 & 6/4*) – 7 runners: Atlantic (6.10), Too Many Diamonds (6.40), Notnow Seamus & Café Au Lait (7.10), Wynford (8.10), Ezanak (8.40) & Get Ready Freddie (9.10)

 

THIRSK:

39 races – 18 winning favourites – 33/39 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers at Thirsk this season:

4/19—Richard Fahey (8/1, 4/1, 7/2* & 4/5*) – 1 runner: Call Him Al (2.15)

3/6—Eric Alston (7/1, 13/2** & 6/4*) – 2 runners: Casterbidge (3.15) & Boudica Bay (4.15)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

2.00 Salisbury:

It’s hardly surprising that Certain Lad has been backed from an overnight price of 7/2 to 11/4. given Mick Channon’s 4/10 ratio at the track this season.  Mick has saddled one of his two juveniles at Salisbury this season to winning effect.  I suppose we should not entire overlook stable companion Dr Smolder from the equation, though Certain Lad’s debut victory at Redcar was gained in impressive fashion with the form having subsequently been franked to winning effect.

2.15 Thirsk:

Not a race to get overly involved in, though the 12/1 quote about Smoki Smoka with three firms might not last too long given Tom Dascombe’s positive appraisal of his Dragon Pulse colt back in the spring.  You can ignore his first effort as Tom had reported that he was a little short of work and the trot around the Roodee should have sharperned the February foal up no end.  Minimum stake each way play is advised if you have to have a bet in the race.

6.20 Lingfield:

Crimean Queen sets the standard from my viewpoint but don’t be too put off by the run of Ring The Bells on her first day at school as Charlie Hills rates this Kodiac filly quite highly.  If she can break on terms (as opposed to the last day) she could outrun her price.

 

US OPEN GOLF THIS WEEK – BEST PRICES ON TUESDAY MORNING:

9/1–Dustin Johnson (Black Type)

16/1–Rory McIlroy (Unibet/Black Type/888)

16/1–Justin Rose (Generally available)

16/1–Justin Thomas (Generally available)

18/1–Jason Day (Generally available)

20/1–Rickie Fowler (365/Ladbrokes/Black Type)

22/1–Jon Rham (Marathon/Betfred/Black Type)

22/1–Jordan Spieth (Black Type)

22/1–Tiger Woods (365/Betfred/Black Type)

25/1–Brooks Koepka (365/Betfred/Black Type)

35/1–Phil Mickelson (Betfred/Batfair/Black Type)

35/1–Henrik Statson ( Betfred/Black Type/Sportingbet)

35/1–Hadeki Matsuyama (Betfred)

40/1–Bar

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

RUSSIA V SAUDI – THURSDAY – 4pm Kick off

40/85—Russia (Betfair)

71/20—Draw (Marathon)

10/1—Saudi (Black Type)

Half time betting:

11/10—Russia (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Black Type)

16/13—Draw (Unibet/888)

38/5—Saudi (Marathon)

Half time/Full time odds:

13/10–Russia/Russia (Ladbrokes/Coral)

25/1–Russia/Draw (Skybet/188)

120/1–Russia/Saudi (Unibet/888)

16/5–Draw/Russia (Unibet/188)

5/1–Draw/Draw (Unibet/188)

37/2–Draw/Saudi (Marathon)

33/1–Saudi/Russia (Coral/Ladbrokes)

25/1–Saudi/Draw (Skybet)

18/1–Saudi/Saudi (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Both teams to score:

8/5 (YES)—Ladbrokes/Coral

4/7(NO)–Betfair

Unders/overs:

4/5–under 2.5 goals (Black Type)

13/10–2.5 goals or more (Bet Stars)

1/4–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/BetBright)

7/2–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor)

  • Note: The book for the under/over 2.5 goals market is ‘under round’ at present, whereby you can back both scenarios and gain a marginal profit!

 

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