Mar 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 13th

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK NOW LISTED TOWARDS THE BOTTOM OF THE COLUMN (BEFORE TONIGHT’S FOOTBALL):

MY BETFAIR EXCHANGE OFFERING FOR WEDNESDAY IS NOW AVAILABLE AS WELL….last night’s offering in this sector did not work out too badly this afternoon in terms of prices shortening, notwithstanding placed horses at 66/1, 12/1 and 7/1 as they were last night (returned at 33/1, 12 /1 & 11/2)…..

 

Monday’s school report:

16/1 and 13/2 winners last night transformed our day, albeit late doors!  As forever suggested – it’s the long haul attitude which is important – from day to day!

Observation for today at Cheltenham:

Trainers who have ‘upped the ante’ (more runners than on the first day last year):

13 declared–Nicky Henderson (9 declared last year)

13–Willie Mullins (11)

7–Gordon Elliot (5)

5–Colin Tizzard (4)

Less runners than last year:

5–Henry De Bromhead (8)

4–Nigel Twiston-Davies (5)

2–Alan King (8)

2–Neil Mulholland (5)

2–Paul Nicholls (4)

2–David Pipe (4)

2–Venetia Williams (3)

Is heavy ground the reason or is an Irish takeover bid surfacing?

 

DID YOU KNOW? (Win a few pints off your mates down the pub tonight as you tell each other how you won/lost on the day):

The 1993 winner, Montelado, holds a unique position in the history of The Festival at Cheltenham. He is the only horse to have won consecutive Festival races, landing the Weatherbys Champion Bumper in 1992, the last race of that year’s meeting, and returning to win the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 1993, the first race 12 months later.

 

BREAKDOWN OF WINNERS IN TERMS OF AGE DOWN THE YEARS:

SUPREME NOVICES (1.30)

4yo – 2 wins
5yo – 18 wins
6yo – 21 wins
7yo – 2 wins
8yo – 2 wins

ARKLE (2.10)

5yo – 14 wins
6yo – 21 wins
7yo – 21 wins
8yo – 12 wins
9yo – 2 wins

CHAMPION HURDLE (3.30):

4yo – 4 victories
5yo – 11 victories
6yo – 31 victories
7yo – 21 victories
8yo – 9 victories
9yo – 7 victories
10yo – 2 victories
11yo – 2 victories

NH CHASE (4.50)

5yo – 1 win
6yo – 7 wins
7yo – 26 wins
8yo – 21 wins
9yo – 7 wins
10yo – 4 wins
11yo – 4 wins

 

RECORDS OF THE REPRESENTED TRAINERS IN THE CHAMPION HURDLE (3.30)

NICKY HENDERSON (SINCE THE TURN OF THE MILLENIUM):

31 RUNNERS – 3 WINNERS – 9 PLACED – 19 UNPLACED

It should not be forgotten that Nicky saddled See You Then who scored a hat trick in the race between 1985 & 1987 – making Nicky the winning most trainer in the history of the feature race on day one of the meeting.

WILLIE MULLINS: 21 RUNNERS – 4 WINNERS – 4 PLACED – 13 UNPLACED

ALAN KING: 9 RUNNERS – 1 WINNER – 8 UNPLACED

HENRY DE BROMHEAD: 3 RUNNERS – NO WINNERS – 1 PLACED – 2 UNPLACED

DAN SKELTON: 1 RUNNER (UNPLACED)

Gordon Elliot and Evan Williams saddle their first runner in the race on this occasion.

OUT OF INTEREST: Ruby Walsh was unsuccessful on his first ten mounts in the Champion Hurdle but has subsequently won on four of his last seven rides in the race.

 

APPROXIMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

1.45: TUESDAY STAT ATTACK & CHELTENHAM FEATURE – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.00: CHELTENHAM ANALYSIS – VIA THE LINK ON MY TWITTER PAGE – EXCLUSIVE STATS FOR 2018 – DONE

8.00: MMA PRICE UPDATES + ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE

8.15: MAN UTD V SEVILLA – BEST PRICES – DONE

9.00: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

12.30: LIST OF CHELTENHAM NON RUNNERS – DONE

17.30: WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS – INCLUDING CHELTENHAM! – DONE

18.00: BETFAIR – MONEY PILING UP ON WHICH HORSES AT CHELTENHAM ON TUESDAY – BOTH LAYS & PLAYS? –

20.00: OTHER CHELTENHAM UPDATES/FEATURES FOR THE SECOND DAY

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHELTENHAM:

1.30: Kalashnikov – 6/1 (Black Type) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 5/1

2.10: Saint Calvados – 3/1 (Skybet/PP/Boyle/BetVictor) – NOW 11/4

2.50: Shantou Flyer -18/1 (Ladbrokes)- NOW 16/1

4.50: No Comment (9/1 (Betfair/PP/Unibet/BetVictor) – NOW 8/1

5.30: Mr Whitaker – 8/1 (Generally available)- NOW 15/2

Additional Cheltenham entry at 8.00:

4.10: Le Bague Au Roi – 15/2 (Sportingbet)

 

SEDGEFIELD:

1.55: Lady Mix – 6/1 (365/PP/Betfair/BetVictor) – NOW 5/1

2.35: Bandol – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP) – NOW 10/1

3.15: Pronto Tonto – 5/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 4/1

4.35: Eastview Boy – 15/2 (PP) – NOW 6/1

Additional Sedgefield entry at 8.00:

1.20: Aniknam – 6/1 (Sportingbet)

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

1.10: Unnoticed – 6/1 (PP/BetVictor) – NOW 5/1

1.45: Two horses to consider at a current couple price of 13/5: Best Tamauyz – 5/1 (365/PP) & Mr Andros – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 4/1 & 13/2 RESPECTIVELY = COUPLED PRICE OF 2/1

3.45: Rantan – 9/1 (PP) – NOW 8/1

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

3.05: Kommander Kirkup – 7/1 (Hills)

4.25: Aragon Knight – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

NEWCASTLE (A/W):

7.15: Rockley Point – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tote/Betbright) – NOW 11/1

8.15: Castle Hill Cassie – 10/1 (VBetfair/PP) – Arguably the best offer today – NOW 7/1

Additional Newcastle entries at 8.00:

7.45: Solid Man – Evens (Marathon)

8.45: Star Cracker -15/2 (BetVictor)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

4/7—Michael Appleby (+32) – 9 runners today – 9 at Southwell & 1 at Newcastle

4/8—Jenny Candlish (+8) – 1 at Southwell: Star Ascending (2.25)

4/8—Gary Moore (+5) – 1 at Cheltenham: Casse Tete (2.50)

3/5—Bob Buckler (+19) – 1 at Cheltenham: All Kings (4.50)

3/6—Charlie Longsdon (+7) – 1 at Cheltenham: Western Miller (5.30)

3/7—David Barron (+10) – 1 at Newcastle: Bob Maxwell (7.15)

2/3—Michael Blake (+30) – 1 at Cheltenham: Knight Of Noir (2.50)

6 named runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

2.25: Star Ascending

2.50: Knight Of Noir & Casse Tete

4.50: All Kings

5.30: Western Miller

7.15: Bob Maxwell

 

TUESDAY STAT ATTACK 

CHELTENHAM:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 25/34 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £170.24

Highest dividend: £436.70 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £38.90 (2016)

Every winning trainer on the Tuesday during the study period:

12 winners—Willie Mullins (10 favourites + winners at 5/1 & 6/1)

13 runners: Getabird & Sharjah (1.30), Footpad (2.10), Faugheen, Melon, Wicklow Brave & Yorkhill (3.30), Pravalagauna & Benie Des Dieux (4.10), Rathvinden & Pylon The Pressure (4.50) & Livelovelugh & Demi Song (5.30)

5—Nicky Henderson (16/1, 5/1, 4/1, 8/15* & 1/4*)

13 runners: Claimantakinforgan (1.30), Brain Power (2.10), Beware The Bear, O O Seven & Gold Present (2.50), Verdana Blue, Buveur D’Air, My Tent Or Yours & Chili Parcs (3.30), Kayf Grace (4.10), Reigning Supreme (4.50) & Divine Spear & Rather Be (5.30)

4—Gordon Elliott (25/1, 16/1, 8/1 & 7/2)

7 runners: Mengli Khan (1.30), Mick Jazz (3.30), Apples Jade (4.10), Mossback & Jury Duty (4.50) & Tycoon Prince & De Lottish Shed (5.30)

3—David Pipe (33/1, 11/1 & 9/1)

2 runners: Eamon An Cnoic & Ramses De Teillee (2.50)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (10/1 & 8/1)

No runners on Tuesday this year

1 each for Colin Tizzard (28/1 – 5 runners), Ian Williams (12/1 – No runners), Rebecca Curtis (11/1 – No runners), Mrs John Harrington (9/1 – No runners), Alan Fleming (8/1 – 1 runner), Alan King (8/1 – 2 runners), Neil Mulholland (8/1 – 2 runners) & Jamie Snowden (8/1 – No runners)

*Point of order – Twelve favourites have won on the opening day of the meeting during the last five years, ten of which have been saddled by Willie Mullins.  For the record, Nicky Henderson saddled the other two successful market leaders

Trainers of doubles or more on the day at Cheltenham:

1,988/1 treble—Gordon Elliott (2017)

26/1 treble—Willie Mullins (2013)

25/1 double—Nicky Henderson (2013)

13/2 double—Willie Mullins (2014)

6/1 treble—Willie Mullins (2016)

Ireland lead the UK 19-9 on the first day during the last five years

 

SEDGEFIELD (Four year history – Meeting abandoned in 2013):

28 races – 12 winning favourites – All 28 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £77.78

Highest dividend: £153.00 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £42.50 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Ken Slack (3 winners at 9/2, 15/8* & 8/13*) is not represented on Tuesday unfortunately

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

35 races – 16 winning favourites – All 35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £56.50

Highest dividend: £152.40 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £8.00 (2017)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Derek Shaw (11/2, 2/1* & 6/4*) – 1 runner today: Elliot The Dragon (3.45)

 

TRAINERS WITH THE MOST WINNERS OF THE RELEVANT RACES ON DAY ONE:

1.30: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (5 wins) – 2 runners: Getabird & Sharjah

2.10: Racing Post Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade1) – Nicky Henderson (6 wins) – Brain Power

2.50: Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) – Recent best: David Pipe (3 wins) – 2 runners: Eamon An Cnoic & Ramses De Teillee

3.30: Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – Nicky Henderson (6 wins) – 4 runners: Buveur D’Air, Verdana Bleu, My Tent Or Yours & Charlie Parks

4.10: OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (8 wins) – 2 runners: Pravalgauana & Benie des Dieux

4.50: National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) – Jonjo O’Neill (6) – No runners this year

5.30: Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) – No outstanding trainer

 

 

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated):

CHELTENHAM:

35 races – 8 winning favourites – 21/35 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,021.68

Highest dividend: £3,255.40 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £36.40 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Willie Mullins (25/1, 3/1, 9/4*, 13/8*, 6/4*) – 18 runners on Wednesday: Next Destination, Duc Des Genieves, Scarpeta & Brahma Bull, (1.30), Bonbon Au Miel & Al Boum Photo (2.10), Max Dynamite, Bleu Berry, C’Est Jersey, Voix Du Reve & Abbyssial (2.50), Min & Douvan (3.30), Blackbow, Tornado Flyer, Colreevy, Carefully Selected & Relegate (5.30)

 

HUNTINGDON (Four year study – Meeting abandoned in 2016):

28 races – 10 winning favourites – 24/28 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £137.13

Highest dividend: £297.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £10.00 (2013)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Jonjo O’Neill (8/1, 3/1, 15/8, 15/8**) – 2 runners declared: Your Wan (3.05) & Oaklee Hall (5.05)

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

36 races – 24 winning favourites – 35/36 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £118.66

Highest dividend: £275.00 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £6.00 (20113)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Mick Appleby (6/1, 5/1, 4/7*, 8/15*) – 2 runners entered: Classic Pursuit (3.55) & Aragon Knight (5.15)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £68.72

Highest dividend: £156.10 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £25.50 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—David Evans (9/2, 7/2, 10/11*) – No runners unfortunately – offered for you to retain

 

MONEY PILING UP ON BETFAIR AT 5.30 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING – SUGGESTING THAT THESE HORSES MIGHT RUN BETTER AT CHELTENHAM THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THIS SERVICE DOES NOT REPLACE TOMORROW’S MMA SERVICE YOU UNDERSTAND, IT’S JUST THAT YOU MIGHT FIND SOME VALUE BEFORE THINGS HOT UP TOMORROW MORNING:

1.30: I doubt that Next Destination will be offered ah high as 6/1 against the odds on favourite from what I have witnessed on the exchanges at the time of writing.  9/2 might be nearer the mark whereby 5/1 (or more) should be worth taking if you can find a generous layer.

2.10: The 9/1 currently on offer with Betfair & Paddy Power about Black Corton might offer value for money as the realistic money in the positive exchange queue suggests that the Paul Nicholls raider might not be that big when the offices open for business on Wednesday.

2.50: 18/1 looks plenty big enough with Sunbets about one of the Willie Mullins quintet, namely Voix Du Reve.

3.30: There is too much ‘will he – won’t he run’ in this event relating to Altior and Douvan leading up to the race whereby odds have not been truly sorted out at the time of writing.  The ‘other’ Willie Mullins runner Min might prove to be the value for money call eventually.  We shall see.

4.10: 7/1 looks a fair enough price about Josies Orders given that Enda Bolger’s  raider is roughly the same ‘price’ on Betfair at the time of writing, looking likely to be far less than 9/1 if the money in the positive exchange queue is anything to go by.

4.50: Boylesports and Sportingbet are the only firms chalking up 14/1 about the price of Eragon Du Chanay which the exchanges cannot match as dusk descends on Bristol this evening.  Sportingbet are also a little generous with the 25/1 quote about Grand Sancy.

5.30: It’s wise to to take too strong a stance at the overnight stage about this Championship Bumper event, as moves tend to happen much more on the day of the race than the night before.  The fact that Willie Mullins has declared five runners tells you everything you need to know.  That said, 5/1 looks a reasonable call right across the board about Blackbow, whilst Sportingbet again stand out from the crowd by offering 12/1 about Carefully Selected.

THESE ARE HORSES FOR YOU TO CONSIDER – NOTHING MORE – NOTHING LESS – LET’S SEE WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS – WHY NOT JOIN ME AT 5.00!

 

 

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FOOTBALL TONIGHT – LIVE ON BT SPORT – 7.45 KO:

MANCHESTER UNITED V SEVILLA

13/20–United (BetVictor)

16/5–Draw (Betway)

11/2–Sevilla (365/Skybet/Betfred)

Half time betting: 

6/5–United (Ladbrokes/Coral)

7/5–Draw (Betfair/Sunbets)

11/2–Sevilla (188)

 

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