Jun 19

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 19th

MAL BOYLE STATS – TUESDAY 19TH JUNE

Monday’s school report:

3 MMA WINNERS AT 14/1 (returned at 8/1), 7/1 (11/2) & 6/1 (9/2***) sets us up nicely for Royal Ascot – Another successful Placepot too!

7/1 winner via my Two Year Old Notes service for good measure – wishing you a wonderful week, especially as Ascot of course!

 

APPROXIMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

3.45: MAL’S ROYAL ASCOT ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

5.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.15: REPEAT OF LAST WEEK’S FEATURE ON ‘AWAY MEETINGS’ (MON TO SAT) – DONE

5.30: 7 YEAR CORRESPONDING STATS FROM ROYAL ASCOT – DONE

5.45: TUESDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

6.15: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

7.00: COMPLETE WORLD CUP SERVICE (Includes best prices for Outright & Group stage) – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 4 ADDITIONS

THE ORIGINAL PLAN (LISTED HERE) WAS TO HAVE ROYAL ASCOT’S WEDNESDAY ANALYSIS AVAILABLE THIS EVENING – BUT THAT IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE DUE TO UNFORESEEN CIRCUMSTANCES – THE WORK SHOULD BE ONLINE IN THE EARLY HOURS TOMORROW

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

ROYAL ASCOT:

2.30: Lord Glitters – 22/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.05: Advertise – 14/1 (365)

3.40: Bataash – 11/4 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betfair/PP/Unibet)

4.30: US Navy Flag – 6/1 (365/Hills)

5.00: Coeur De Lion – 7/1 (365)

5.35: Yucatan – 17/2 (Unibet)

Additional Royal Ascot entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

BEVERLEY:

7.00: River Icon – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.30: El Astronaute – 9/4 (888)

8.00: Ideal Candy – 9/1 (Skybet/PP)

9.00: Two horses to consider: Bollin Ted – 9/2 (PP) & Palindrome – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Beverley entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

BRIGHTON:

5.40: Indian Warrior – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

6.10: Nayslayer – 11/2 (Genrally available)

6.40: Bombshell Bay – 8/1 (Betfred/PP)

Additional Brighton entries at 8.30:

7.10: My Tyrell – 11/4 (PP)

8.40: Deer Song – 15/2 (Marathon)

 

THIRSK:

2.45: Dundunah – 14/1 (Hills)

3.55: Silver Starlight – 22/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/BetVictor)

4.35: Global Style – 11/4 (365/Skebet/Betway/BetVictor)

5.45: Unnoticed – 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Thirsk entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

STRATFORD:

4.45: Yensir – 11/4 (365)

5.20: Tingo In The Tail – 25/1 (365)

Additional Stratford entries at 8.30:

3.30: Wells De Lune – 20/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

4.05: Scrumpy Boy – 25/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

SEVEN YEAR RECORDS AT ROYAL ASCOT RELATING TO DAY ONE:

Leading trainer during the period on the opening day of the meeting:

6 winners—Aidan O’Brien (20/1, 15/2, 5/1, 4/1*, 13/8* & 8/15*) – 12 runners: Rhododendron & Deauville (2.30), Sergei Prokofiev & The Irish Rover (3.05), Battle Of Jericho, Declaration Of Peace, Washington DC & Different League (3.40), US Navy Flag, Threeandfourpence & Gustav Flint (4.20) &Yucatan (5.35)

3 winners—Willie Mullins (8/1, 5/1* & 4/1*) – 5 runners in the 5.00: Meri Drive, Stratum, Lagostovegas, Whiskey Sour & Chelkar

Average Placepot dividend at Royal Ascot: £522.47

Placepot: favourite stats – 45 in total – 15 winners – 10 placed – 20 unplaced

 

TUESDAY STAT ATTACKS :

ASCOT:

18 races – 8 winning favourites – 15/18 winners scored at a top price of 9/2

Leading trainers at Ascot this season:

2/5—Clive Cox (10/1 & 9/2) – 2 runners: Zonderland (2.30) & Getchagetchagetcha (3.05)

2/5—Roger Varian (4/1* & 10/11*) – 1 runner: Sharja Bridge (5.35)

 

BEVERLEY:

40 races – 13 winning favourites – 36/40 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer at Beverley this season:

5/30—Richard Fahey (6/1, 11/2, 4/1 & 13/8* twice) – 3 runenrs: Pesci (6.30), Amazing Miracle (7.00) & Delph Crescent (8.00)

 

BRIGHTON:

50 races – 14 winning favourites – 49/50 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer at Brighton this season:

3/8—John Bridger (8/1, 11/2 & 5/1) – 1 runner: Deer Song (8.40)

 

THIRSK:

47 races – 21 winning favourites – 40/47 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer at Thirsk this season:

4/16—Paul Midgley (18/1, 8/1, 11/2 & 9/4*) – 1 runner: Groundworker (2.45)

 

STRATFORD:

21 races – 4 winning favourites – 19/21 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer at Stratford:

No trainer has saddled more than one winner at Stratford this season!

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES (winner notified when 7/1 yesterday – returned at 11/2):

1.40: Thirsk:

William Haggas boasts a 31% strike rate at Thirsk with his juveniles down the years which has been produced via eight winners.  The fact that William has taken time out from his busy schedule to declared his Dark Angel newcomer Ascended is something of a tip in itself.  None of the experienced runners have excelled to date whereby Mark Johnston’s Sepoy debutante Prairie Spy could prove to be the danger.

2.10: Thirsk:

The trade press put Deira Surprise in at 4/5 overnight though 8/15 looks more like her returned SP from what we have witnessed in the markets this morning.  Hugo Palmer was quoted as saying “I like this filly a huge amount” before only giving best to a John Gosden juvenile who is entered up at Royal Ascot later in the week.

3.05 Royal Ascot: 

Aidan O’Brien holds the record in the Coventry Stakes having won the race eight time to date, whereby the chances of Sergei Prokofiev and The Irish Rover are very much respected.  The best of the rest could prove to be Advertise at a double figure price for potential each way players.

6.10 Brighton: 

Spirit Kingdom is on offer at 10/3 with Skybet at the time of writing and considering three entries were held this week and there is nothing of note via the experienced runners in the race, the ‘Burlington Bertie’ quote might look half decent by the close of play tonight.

6.30 Beverley: 

The only realistic positive money on the exchanges overnight was for Victory Command and Mark Johnston’s raider has every chance of doubling his win total in this grade/company.

 

STATS/FACTS FROM THE ‘AWAY MEETINGS’ FROM TUESDAY TO SATURDAY (INCLUSIVE) WHEN ROYAL ASCOT IS THE PRIME MEETING – BASED ON LAST YEARS RESULTS :

FLAT SECTOR (TURF):

101 races – 31 winning favourites (30.7% of races) – 96/101 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (95%)

Leading trainers:

5 winners—Keith Dalgleish (6/1, 5/1, 7/2, 5/2 & 6/4*)

5 winners—Richard Fahey (4/1, 7/4*, 5/4*, 8/11* & 4/6*)

5 winners—Mark Johnston (6/1, 2/1, 15/8, Evens* & 4/6*)

5 winners—David O’Meara (11/1, 15/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 2/1)

4 winners—Mick Channon (6/1, 4/1, 11/4** & 7/4*)

4 winners—Tim Easterby (14/1, 9/1, 7/1 & 6/5*)

3 winners—Michael Dods (7/1 (twice) & 10/11*)

3 winners—Jim Goldie (17/2, 8/1 & 10/3*)

3 winners—John Quinn (15/2, 7/1 & 5/2**)

FLAT SECTOR (A/W):

21 races – 9 winning favourites (42.8% of races) – 19 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (90.5%)

The only two trainers to saddle a brace of winners were Roger Charlton (Evens* & 4/6*) & Sir Mark Prescott (12/1 & 4/5*)

That said, David O’Meara also saddled a winner at 7/2 to add to his five winners on turf during the relevant study period

NH SECTOR:

27 races – 14 winning favourites (51.9% of races) – 25/27 (94%) of winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers:

4 winners—Peter Bowen (11/2, 3/1, 3/1* & 11/10*)

3 winners—Tom George (5/2 & 4/6* twice)

3 winners—Dan Skelton (3/1, 6/4* & 5/6*)

TOTALS:

149 races – 54 winning favourites (36.2% of races) – 140/149 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (94%)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

COLOMBIA V JAPAN – 1pm kick off

3/4—Colombia (Hills)

68/25—Draw (Marathon)

11/2—Japan (Bet Stars)

Half time betting:

29/20—Colombia (Ladbrokes/Coral

107/100—Draw Marathon)

57/10—Japan (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

7/4–Colombia/Colombia (Ladbrokes/Hills/Coral)

20/1–Colombia/Draw (Skybet/188)

80/1–Colombia/Japan (Skybet/Unibet/Coral/888)

7/2–Draw/Colombia (Betfair/Unibet/888)

81/20–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

12/1–Draw/Japan (Marathon)

35/1–Japan/Colombia (188)

20/1–Japan/Draw (Skybet/188/BetVictor)

10/1–Japan/Japan (Generally available)

Both teams to score:

10/7 (YES) – (Unibet/888)

69/100 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

69/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

17/11–2.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

11/50–under 3.5 goals (Marathon)

43/10–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

 

POLAND V SENEGAL – 4pm kick off

7/5—Poland (Betfair)

23/10—Draw (Marathon)

13/5—Senegal (Generally available)

Half time betting:

11/5—Poland (Hills)

19/20 or 20/21—Draw (Generally available)

15/4—Senegal (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

56/19–Poland/Poland (Marathon)

73/20–Poland/Draw (Marathon)

50/1–Poland/Senegal (Skybet/Unibet/Coral/Black Type/888)

93/20–Draw/Poland (Marathon)

73/20–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

7/1–Draw/Senegal (Unibet/888)

40/1–Senegal/Poland (Black Type)

17/1–Senegal/Draw (BetVictor)

11/2–Senegal/Senegal (Ladbrokes/Coral)

Both teams to score:

6/5 (YES) – (Hills/Sunbets)

5/6 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

17/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

13/8–2.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

2/11–under 3.5 goals (Generally available)

9/2–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

 

RUSSIA V EGYPT – 7pm kick off

11/10—Russia (Generally available)

49/20—Draw (Marathon)

13/4—Egypt (Unibet)

Half time betting:

15/8—Russia (Generally available)

103/100—Draw (Marathon)

22/5—Egypt (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

5/2–Russia/Russia (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor)

37/2–Russia/Draw (188)

66/1–Russia/Egypt (Black Type

85/20–Draw/Russia (Marathon)

7/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

17/2–Draw/Egypt (Marathon)

35/1–Egypt/Russia (Unibet/888/188)

18/1–Egypt/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

13/2–Egypt/Egypt (Generally avaialable)

Both teams to score:

23/19 (YES) – (Unibet/888)

¾ (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

63/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

7/4–2.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

1/5–under 3.5 goals (Marathon)

24/5–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888)

 

PRICE UPDATES (BEST PRICES) FOR OUTRIGHT AND GROUP STAGES FOR THE TEAMS WHICH PLAYED YESTERDAY + OTHER MARKET LEADERS:

10/1—BELGIUM (Betfair)

14/1—ENGLAND (Black Type)

200/1—SWEDEN (BetVictor)

2500/1–SOUTH KOREA (Skybet)

2500/1—TUNISIA (Skybet)

5000/1—PANAMA (888)

Best Prices for the other market leaders:

17/4—BRAZIL (UNibet/888)

9/2—SPAIN (Generally available)

8/1—FRANCE (Best Stars & BetVictor)

9/1—GERMANY (Betway/BetVictor)

12/1—ARGENTINA (Generally available)

Group ‘F’:

8/11—MEXICO (Betfred/Bet Stars)

10/3—GERMANY (365/Boyle)

4/1—SWEDEN (Generally available)

66/1—SOUTH KOREA (Betfred/10Bet/Sportingbet)

Group ‘G’:

8/13—BELGIUM (Generally available)

6/4—ENGLAND (Betfair/PP)

125/1—TUNISIA (365/Betfair/PP)

325/1—PANAMA (PP)

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