Monday’s school report:
Thankfully, things looks set to improve as the week progresses, whilst we got our money back’ relating to yesterday’s sport if we played in every race I offered, which is not the point of the service, though you ‘catch my drift’ hopefully.
We can tell how bizarre these weather conditions have been of late given that the meetings which have survived today are ‘oop north’ as the saying goes, or is it simply another example of ‘soft southerners’?
APPROXIMMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:
5.30: ‘Dead Of Night’ MMA service – DONE
7.30: Wetherby Analysis via the link on my Twitter page (includes positive Richard Johnson stats) – DONE
7.45: Wetherby Stat Attack – DONE
8.00: MMA prices update + additions if/where – DONE – WITH 1 ADDITION
8.30: In form trainers – DONE
10.00: Football – ODDS COMPILING INSTRUCTION MANUAL – DONE!
DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.
3.40: Eminent Poet – 8/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfred/Tote) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 6/1
4.10: Newberry New – 10/3 (Ladbrokes) – NOW 3/1
4.45: Lastin Memories – 10/1 (Hills/PP) – NOW 15/2
Additional Wetherby entries at 8.00:
6.05: Velvet Vision – 9/4 (365/Skybet/Hills/Coral) – NOW 2/1
6.40: VJ Day – 9/4 (Ladbrokes) – NOW 2/1
7.15: Ballymore Castle – 10/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 15/2
7.45: Paparazzi – 11/2 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Hills/188) – NOW 5/1
8.15: Ventura Gold – 13/2 (Hills/Marathon/Betfair) – NOW 6/1
8.45: Razin Hell – 20/1 (Ladbrokes/Sunbets/BetVictor) – NOW 16/1
Additional Newcastle entry at 8.00:
5.35: Stargazer – 14/1 (Betbright)
IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:
5/10—Archie Watson (+3) – 1 at Newcastle: Ghost Serge (6.40)
Last three runners have won—Lisa Harrison (+16) – 1 today: Instingtive (4.45 Wetherby)
3/4–Ruth Carr (+22) – 2 runners in the 8.45: Lexington Times & Zebulon
3/6—Phil Kirby (+5) – 7 runners; 4 at Wetherby: Little Bruce & Rock Of Leon (2.00), Allmyown (4.10) & Tiger Time (5.15) + 3 at Newcastle: Stargazer (5.35), New Britain (6.05) & Sincerely Resdev (7.45)
3/7—Ben Haslam (+9) – 2 at Newcastle: Sterling Silva (7.15) & Musbaq (8.15)
2/5—Karl Burke (+2) – 2 at Newcastle: Myboyhenry (6.40) & Double Reflection (7.45)
15 runners in race order:
2.00: Little Bruce & Rock On Leon
4.10: All My Own
5.15: Tiger Time
6.05: New Britain
6.40: Ghost Serge & Myboyhenry
7.15: Sterling Silva
7.45: Sincerely Resdev & Double Reflection
8.45: Lexington Times & Zebulon
TUESDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated):
34 races – 11 winning favourites –33/34 winners scored at a top price of 17/2
Average Placepot dividend: £251.42
Highest dividend: £509.50 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £55.00 (2017)
Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
3 winners—Brian Ellison (7/1, 9/2 & 11/4) – 1 runner today: Tomngerry (3.40)
ODDS COMPILING – THE MECHANICS
Taking the last four in the FA Cup, I’m offering the way that bookmakers price up such events, in the event that you are unaware of how such prices are made available to the public.
It’s not merely a coincidence that Tottenham are 2/1 to lift the trophy right across the board, the figures/odds are formulated in the following manner to bring about the quotes.
Three numerical equation take place in order for 2/1 to be made available.
Firstly, we have to consider the price of Tottenham reaching the final. My prices are 8/11 Tottenham and Evens United to reach Wembley.
We then have to deduce the average price of their eventual opponents in the final. I would make Tottenham inseparable against Chelsea in the final – offering 5/6 the pair. Tottenham (from my viewpoint) would be 2/9 against Southampton, with 3/1 on offer about the Saints.
We have to find an average price between the two potential 5/6 & 2/9 prices against Chelsea/Southampton. In the event of Chelsea being such strong favourites, my average price for Tottenham in the circumstances would be 4/6.
The final double we have to work with then is 8/11 against Manchester United and 4/6 in the final (the average price against Chelsea/Southampton).
The double (8/11 & 4/6) equates to 15/8 – not a million miles away from the general 2/1 on offer at the time of writing.
We then work out the same equations for all four clubs to create the current odds. Without going through all the equations again, my prices for the other three clubs are as follows.
11/8—Chelsea (1/4 to beat S’ton & 10/11 – average price of the other pair)
5/2—Man Utd (Evens & 8/11 – Evens to beat Tottenham – 8/11 other pair)
13/1—Southampton (11/4 to overcome Chelsea – 11/4 other pair)
These odds are invariably a tad too skinny (via ‘compound equations’) whereby a slight increase on all four prices would read as:
= over round book of 8% (potential profit to bookmakers)
If you add the odds of the two semi-final pairs together (easing the fractions slightly) as we did before, the prices evaluate to around:
4/6—Tottenham or Manchester Utd to win the trophy – 6/5 against Chelsea or Southampton – odds that I would be happy to display.
For the record the best prices at the time of writing are as follows:
13/8–Chelsea (Generally available)
2/1–Tottenham (Generally available)
5/2–Manchester United (Skybet/Unibet/Betway/888)