Jan 23

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 23rd

WEDNESDAY’S EDITION WILL INCLUDE COMPREHENSIVE COVERAGE OF SATURDAY’S TRIALS DAY AT CHELTENHAM WITH TEN YEAR DETAILS YOU WILL NOT HAVE SEEN ELSEWHERE!  THERE IS A SNIPPET BELOW IN MY SMALL ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ FEATURE THIS MORNING – YOU WONT WANT TO MISS TOMORROW’S WORK!

Monday’s school report:

11/2 MMA winner Maestro Mac rewarded faithful (and patient) followers in our last race yesterday, having been put up at 5.15 yesterday morning before being backing into 9/4 favouritism.

Earlier plunge horses had been beaten at 22/1 (into 6/1), 50/1 (into 20/1), 15/2 (into 9/2), 9/2 (into 11/4) and 7/2 into (3/1).  Three of those horses finished third, whilst two others went for a walk in the market after initial interest.

It was the right day to have told you to look at other services I provide, especially with Olly Muphy nailing a 1,227/1 four-timer and Mick Easterby scoring with his only runner at 11/2.

What will today bring…….

TUESDAY TIMELINE:

5.00: DEAD OF NIGHT – MMA DETAILS – DONE

6.00: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

7.30: THIRD AND FINAL PART OF THE SCOTTISH/WELSH TRAINER STATS – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATE & ONE ADDITION – DONE

9.00: LEICESTER STAT ATTACK – DONE

9.30: AHEAD OF THE GAME FEATURE

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – UPDATED PRICES (ALL EIGHT HORSES HAVE BEEN BACKED) – OFFERING AVERAGE QUOTES AT 8.00 + ONE ADDITION:

LEICESTER:

3.15: Mr Love – 4/1 (Hills/Betfred/PP) – NOW 7/2

3.50: Dalface – 5/1 (Coral/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 4/1

Additional  entries at 8.00: NONE

WETHERBY:

3.30: Wold Sword – 11/2 (Skybet/Betfair/Unibet/888) – NOW 7/2

Additional  entries at 8.00:

4.00: Miss Tynte – 15/2 (Sunbets)

SOUTHWELL:

Two to consider in the 1.55: Jack Blane – 14/1 (Paddy Power) & Hisar – 9/1 (Betfair/PP) – NOW 9/1 & 13/2 RESPECTIVELY

3.05: Robot Boy – 7/1 (PP) – NOW 5/1

3.40: Daily Trader – 7/1 – Skybet/Ladbrokes/Hills) – NOW 5/1

4.10 (Speculative small stakes option): Good Man – 20/1 (Skybet) – NOW 16/1

Additional  entries at 8.00: NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

15/49—Hary Whittington (+5) – 1 at Leicester: Saint Calvados (1.30)

9/23—Olly Murphy (+26) – 1 at Wetherby: Oxford Blu (1.10)

8/30—Tom Lacey (+29) – 1 at Leicester: Silk Run (2.05)

7/16—Warren Greatrex (+13) – 1 at Leicester: Don Des Fosses (1.00)

5/8—Donald McCain (+10) – 3 today: Lastbutnotleast (2.40 Leicester), San Pietro (3.15 Leicester) & Snougar (4.00 Wetherby)

5/14—Henry Daly (+15) – 4 chances: Petronella Manners (2.05 Leicester), The Artful Cobbler (2.20 Wetherby), Kayfleur (2.40 Leicester) & Go West Young Man (3.15 Leicester)

5/15—Mick Easterby (+11) – 1 at Southwell: Bop It (2.30)

4/6—Jamie Snowden (+5) – 2 today: Lunar Flow (2.20 Wetherby) & Shockingtimes (3.15 Leicester)

4/12—Keith Dalgleish (+31) – 2 runners: Take The High Road (1.10 Wetherby) & Jack Blane (1.55 Southwell)

3/5—Ed Walker (+4) – 1 at Southwell: Isoletta (1.20)

3/8—William Haggas -1 at Southwell: Imperial Red (1.20)

Last two runners have won—David Barron (+13) – 1 at Southwell: Robot Boy (3.05)

Two of last three runners on the flat have won—Tim Easterby – 1 at Southwell: Midnight Malibu (3.05)

20 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

1.00: Don Des Fosses

1.10: Take The High Road & Oxford Blu

1.20: Imperial Red & Isoletta

1.30 Saint Calvados

1.55: Jack Blane

2.05: Silk Run & Petronella Manners

2.20: The Artful Cobbler & Lunar Flow

2.30: Bop It

2.40: Kayfleur & Lastbutnotleast

3.05: Midnight Malibu & Robot Boy

3.15: Go West Young Man, San Pietro & Shockingtimes

4.00: Snougar

 

TUESDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

LEICESTER:

32 races – 13 winning favourites – 31/32 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £78.60

Highest dividend: £217.20 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £39.40 (2011)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Nigel Twiston-Davies is the top trainer on the four winner mark but Nigel is not represented today: Next best:

3 winners—David Pipe (11/4, 8/11* & 1/6*) – 1 runner today: Delface (3.50)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – BITE SIZE EXAMPLE OF WHAT WILL BE ON OFFER ON WEDNESDAY:

CHELTENHAM – SATURDAY – COTSWOLD CHASE – SCHEDULED FOR 2.25

No favourite has won this race during the last decade during which time, six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.  That said, the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, though the previous gold medallists were returned at 16/1, 16/1 and 11/1

10-year-olds lead the nine-year-old 5-4 during the study period, whilst Oliver Sherwood and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers to have saddled two winner during the last ten years.  Paul has saddled a total of four winners, a sequence which was started by See More Business back in 1999.

Three of the last ten winners missed the Cheltenham Festival (Gold Cup) in the same year.

Only one of the other seven runners finished in the frame In the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup and that was The Giant Bolster which finished third at 14/1 in 2014.  Others finished down the field in the ‘Blue Riband’ at 7/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 33/1.  As a ‘trial’, the race is not all it is cracked up to be.

The other six races on Saturday will be under similar scrutiny when you read the column tomorrow – alongside a ten year stat attack on the meeting.

 

THIRD (AND FINAL) PART OF THE SCOTTISH/WELSH TRAINER STATS:

The first figures relate to stats at the relevant tracks this season – second ratio is pertinent to the last five years. Figures printed in bold relate to a minimum 30% strike rate in the relevant sectors.

Ben Pauling:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners during the last five years

Kelso: No runners – 0/6

Musselburgh: No runners in the last five years

Perth: No runners – 0/1

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/7

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/7 – 1/22

Chepstow: 0/3 – 1/12

Ffos Las: No runners – 3/9

Welsh totals to date: 0/10 – 5/43

 

Olly Murphy:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/4 – 0/4

Kelso: 0/1 – 0/1

Musselburgh: 1/11/1

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: 1/6 – 1/6

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/4 – 0/4

Chepstow: No runners during the last five years

Ffos Las: 0/4 – 0/4

Welsh totals to date: 0/8 – 0/8

 

Sue Smith:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/3 – 3/45

Kelso: 1/5 – 4/63

Musselburgh: 1/3 – 3/16

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: 2/11 – 10/124

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/2 – 3/19

Chepstow: 0/1 – 0/3

Ffos Las: No runners during the last five years

Welsh totals to date: 0/3 – 3/22

 

Ian Williams:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners – 0/5

Kelso: No runners – 1/2

Musselburgh: No runners – 2/13

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 3/20

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 0/2 – 0/19

Chepstow: 0/4 – 1/32

Ffos Las: 1/1 – 2/7

Welsh totals to date: 1/7 – 3/58

 

Warren Greatrex:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 0/2 – 0/12

Kelso: No runners – 1/2

Musselburgh: No runners during the last five years

Perth: 2/32/4

Scottish totals to date: 2/5 – 3/18

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/6 – 13/43

Chepstow: 3/8 – 8/43

Ffos Las: 1/6 – 9/45

Welsh totals to date: 5/20 – 30/131

 

Anthony Honeyball:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners during the last five years

Kelso: No runners during the last five years

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/1

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/1

Welsh courses:

Bangor: No runner – 0/10

Chepstow: 0/2 – 4/34

Ffos Las: 1/3 – 7/55

Welsh totals to date: 1/5 – 11/99

 

Nick Williams:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: No runners during the last five years

Kelso: No runners – 0/1

Musselburgh: No runners – 0/1

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: No runners – 0/2

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 2/4 – 3/11

Chepstow: 1/4 – 3/32

Ffos Las: 0/1 – 4/20

Welsh totals to date: 3/9 – 10/63

 

Kerry Lee:

Scottish courses:

Ayr: 1/2 – 1/5

Kelso: No runners during the last five years

Musselburgh: No runners during the last five years

Perth: No runners during the last five years

Scottish totals to date: 1/2 – 1/5

Welsh courses:

Bangor: 1/7 – 4/22

Chepstow: 1/7 – 2/26

Ffos Las: 1/2 – 2/12

Welsh totals to date: 3/16 – 8/60

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

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