Feb 27

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 27th

Monday’s school report:

T’was a good start to the day which tapered out as the hours went by.  Precious little interest from subscribers by the sound of things and the same lack of interest is expected today.  Three MMA winners yesterday and a 16/1 winner via the in for trainer service should have kept the proverbial ‘wolf from the door’ I’ll wager, especially as a 10/1 winner happened along soon afterwards!

TUESDAY:

POINT OF ORDER: The ‘Dead of Night’ offering below is the weakest report I have offered as there is very little interest in today’s sport at the time of writing, probably due to weather conditions.

On a wider front however, I am going to follow up my interest in a beaten horse last time out, which is a rarity for yours truly. 

Ten days ago, I asked you to consider the merits of Deeds Not Words, especially as the 20/1 chance was considered to offer value for money.  The selection ran down the field but I am interested in the race report which suggested that Deeds Not Words was “shuffled along” (no more – no less) which is fascinating given that Michael Wigham’s raider was only beaten three or so lengths.

A small investment is ‘advised’, if only to retrieve losses which should not have been great anyway, given the price ten days ago.  9/1 is the best price in the village with Bet365, Skybet & BetVictor at the time of writing.  DEEDS NOT WORDS NOW 10/1  with Skybet, Betfred/Tote & BetVictor.  Good luck if you play.

 

* Note the Cheltenham Festival details for 2018 at the foot of the column, alongside a repeat of the pre-Festival stats for trainers this season at Prestbury Park – Includes recent quotes by Willie Mullins about his four potential Gold Cup runners – where else?

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant:

CATTERICK ABANDONED

 

CHELMSFORD:

2.15: Make Magic – 7/1 (365) – NOW 11/2

4.45: Too Many Shots – 12/1 (365) – NOW 8/1

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

2.45: Tigerfish – 7/1 (Sportingbet)

3.15: Frozen Lake – 15/2 (Skybet)

3.45: Dis Gift – 5/1 (Skybet & Sportingbet)

 

LINGFIELD:

3.00: Emenem – 5/2 (Generally available) – NOW 9/4

3.30: Bint Dandy – 22/1 (Ladbrokes) – NOW 18/1

5.00: Big Amigo – 13/2 (Betfred/Tote) – Arguably the pick of the small bunch this morning – NOW 4/1

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

5/16—Ed Walker (+6) – 1 at Lingfield: Smiley Bagel (4.00)

4/8—Laura Mongan (+24) – 1 at Chelmsford: Sandacres (4.45)

4/9—Suzi Best (+45) – 1 at Lingfield: Slowfoot

4/10—David Evans (+30) – 1 at Lingfield: Awesome Allan (2.00)

3/6—Jeremy Noseda (+1) – 2 at Lingfield: Walk In The Sun (2.30) & Abe Lincoln (3.00)

3/9—Ivan Furtado (+9) – 1 at Lingfield: Thatsthewaytodoit (5.00)

2/3—Simon Dow (+6) – 3 at Lingfield: Roundabout Magic (2.00), Emenem (3.00) & Galinthias (4.30)

2/5—Charlie Fellowes (+7) – 1 at Lingfield: Carolinae (3.30)

2/5—Gary Moore – 1 at Chelmsford: Royal Hall (4.45)

12 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

2.00: Roundabout Magic & Awesome Allan

2.30: Walk In The Sun

3.00: Abe Lincoln

3.30: Carolinae

4.00: Slowfoot & Smiley Bagel

4.30: Galinthias

4.40: Fraser Canyon

4.45: Sandacres & Royal Hall

5.00: Thatsthewaytodoit

 

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DETAILS – 2018

Champion Day – Tuesday, March 13 (Old Course)
Time Race Distance Prize Money
1.30pm Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f £125,000
2.10pm Racing Post Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade1) 2m £175,000
2.50pm Ultima Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f £110,000
3.30pm Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f £450,000
4.10pm OLBG Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f £120,000
4.50pm National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 4m £125,000
5.30pm Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 4½f £70,000
Total Prize money: £1,175,000

Ladies Day – Wednesday, March 14 (Old Course & Cross Country)
1.30pm Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f £125,000
2.10pm RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m ½f £175,000
2.50pm Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f £100,000
3.30pm Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m £400,000
4.10pm Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f £65,000
4.50pm Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m ½f £80,000
5.30pm Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m ½f £75,000
Total £1,020,000

St Patrick’s Thursday – Thursday, March 15 (New Course)
1.30pm JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f £150,000
2.10pm Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 3m £100,000
2.50pm Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 5f £350,000
3.30pm Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m £325,000
4.10pm Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 5f £110,000
4.50pm Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 1f £90,000
5.30pm Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup A R Handicap Chase 3m 2f £70,000
Total £1,195,000

Gold Cup Day – Friday, March 16 (New Course)
1.30pm JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f £125,000
2.10pm Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 1f £100,000
2.50pm Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m £125,000
3.30pm Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2½f £625,000
4.10pm St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase (Amateur riders) 3m 2½f £45,000
4.50pm Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f £70,000
5.30pm Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m ½f £110,000
Total £1,200,000

Record prize money for The Festival 2018 – £4.59 million, up £285,000 (+ seven per cent)

 

WILLIE MULLINS RECENT QUOTES ABOUT HIS FOUR POTENTIAL RUNNERS IN THE GOLD CUP: 

Bachasson: “Connections of Bachasson are keen to go to Cheltenham for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is fantastic jumper but whether he can carry that weight over that trip – it will be a tough ask.”

Djakadam: “He has been disappointing this season, but this year’s Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup could be the most open he has competed in.

“There is a lot of feeling that he should go back for the Ryanair Chase, and that might happen, but I feel he should go for the Gold Cup.

“He doesn’t look the same horse this season on the track. His form is not good enough, although it wasn’t a bad run in the Irish Gold Cup to be third. He certainly has not fired like he has in previous seasons.”

Killultagh Vic: “He goes for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.

“He looked in a very good position in the Irish Gold Cup and I would not have been betting against him jumping the last. He had the momentum and looked like he was pulling away.

“I always think your first thought is your best thought. When you look at it after you see the other horses coming from behind, but they weren’t in the picture when you’re watching it live. I thought he had a really good chance going to the last.

“We were worried when he fell but he has schooled well since. It looked like he was too careful at Leopardstown. Hopefully, he will have learned and will be all right on the day.

“I would have no stamina concerns, not with his pedigree. He beat Thistlecrack in a three-mile novice hurdle.”

Total Recall: “Our aim has been the Grand National but he probably needs to go for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup. We were going to go for the Bobbyjo but it came too soon after Leopardstown.

“I think the Gold Cup gives us a good chance. He is a relaxed horse who jumps economically and that would suit him around Cheltenham in a Gold Cup. He will be switched off and won’t be using too much energy.

“It looks a fairly open Gold Cup and he deserves to have a crack at it.”

 

CHELTENHAM PRE-FESTIVAL STAT THIS SEASON:

68 races – 23 winning favourites – 62/68 scored at a top price of 12/1

9/28—Nicky Henderson (5/1, 9/1, 4/1, 5/2*, 15/8*, 13/8*, Evens*, 1/7* & 1/10*) – Level stake profit

7/38—Colin Tizzard (3/1, 5/2, 2/1*, 7/4, 5/4*, 10/11* & 4/5*)

7/41—Nigel Twiston-Davies (25/1, 9/1, 15/2, 13/2, 6/1, 9/4** & 6/5*) – Level stake profit

4/28—Paul Nicholls (13/2, 4/1, 5/2 & 9/4*)

3/18—Dan Skelton (7/2**, 10/3 & 6/4)

3/23—Fergal O’Brien (8/1, 7/1 & 7/4*)

2/3—Anthony Honeyball (9/2** & 3/1) – Level stake profit

2/5—Kerry Lee (7/2 & 10/3*) – Level stake profit

2/5—Neil Mulholland (10/1 & 3/1*) – Level stake profit

2/6—Alan King (10/1 & 15/8**) – Level stake profit

2/15—Martin Keighley (33/1 & Evens*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Michael Blake (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Mick Channon (6/1) – Level stake profit

1/2—Robert Walford (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/3—Michael Scudamore (14/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Brian Ellison (7/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Chris Gordon (20/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Paul Henderson (13/2) – Level stake profit

1/4—Donald McCain (8/1) – Level stake profit

1/4—Nicky Richards (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/5—Henry De Bromhead (9/4)

1/5—Jamie Snowden (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/7—Warren Greatrex (5/2)

1/8—Gordon Elliott (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/8—Ben Pauling (6/1)

1/8—Tim Vaughan (12/1) – Level stake profit

1/11—Nick Williams (9/1)

1/12—Harry Fry (11/4*)

1/12—David Pipe (11/1) – Level on the year

1/16—Philip Hobbs (4/1)

1/19—Tom George (11/2)

Biggest losses this season to date include:

0/14—Jonjo O’Neill

0/13—Ian Wiliams

0/10—Charlie Longsdon

0/6—Kim Bailey

0/6—Peter Bowen

0/6—Evan Williams

0/5—Venetia Williams

May Hunter Chase meeting winning trainers aside from Fergal O’Brien and Ben Pauling:

1/1—D C Gibbs (9/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Paul King (25/1) – Level stake profit

1/1—Philip Rowley (8/13*) – Level stake profit

1/1—Miss L Thomas (9/4*) – Level stake profit

1/3—R J Bandey (12/1) – Level stake profit

Where else?

Be lucky of course but as always – Be aware!

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