Apr 03

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 3rd

Monday’s school report:

Horse racing: We found a 4/1 winner at Wolverhampton from a handful of selections, whilst Skybet rewarded each way clients with my sixth placed 33/1 chance in the Irish Grand National.

Football: My stats highlighted the possibility for a win for Portsmouth at 10/3 (with Bet365) – the home side now having won six of the last ten home games against Wigan at all levels (G/D: 14/7).  Cardiff forced a draw at Sheffield United (12/5 with Black Type) a result which has now happened four times in the last six Championship matches between these two teams in Yorkshire (G/D: 9-9).

 

APPROXIMMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: FOOTBALL SERVICE – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – EXTENSIVE COMPETITION FEATURE – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.40: ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – Time to start thinking about the Grand National – Saturday 14th – Mal’s tip last year was One For Arthur, one of the most convincing winners in recent years at 11/1.  Some of us were on at 18/1! – DONE

7.00: MAL’S LINGFIELD ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

7.45: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – NOTHING DEVELOPING AT 7.45 THIS MORNING – KEEP STAKES LOW TODAY

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am)

LINGFIELD:

4.25: Dutiful Son – 13/2 (Ladbrokes/Betfair)

5.00: Threediamondrings – 25/1 (365/Betfair/PP)

5.30: Victors Bet – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

NONE – KEEP STAKES LOW TODAY

 

IN FORM TRAINERS TODAY INCLUDE:

3/6—Michael Appleby (+3) – 1 today: Topamichi (3.25 Lingfield)

3/9—Simon Dow (+9) – 1 at Lingfield: Le Torrent (5.00)

3/9—Richard Hannon (+5) – 1 chance: Dotted Swiss (2.20)

2/4—Charlie Wallace (+8) – 1 at Lingfield: Sir Hector (2.20)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – GRAND NATIONAL – SATURDAY APRIL 14

I have been offering work for a company which sends my thoughts to a number of its clients for quite a few years now.  This was my opening line on the race last year which was posted on the Wednesday before the race when One for Arthur was an 18/1 chance:

One for Arthur (Main selection) – As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty.  Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career.  The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them, having gained the thick end of his 67 winners to date over the bigger obstacles (fences as opposed to hurdles).  Trainer Lucinda Russell has saddled two hundred winners boasting a fine career without being one of the ‘headline names’.  One for Arthur romped home (“Always travelling well” – Racing Post report) at 11/1.

Last 32 Grand National winning ages include:

  • 9-y-o (9 winners)West Tip (1986), Rhyme ‘N’ Reason (1988), Lord Gyllene (1997), Bobbyjo (1999), Papillon (2000), Hedgehunter (2005), Comply Or Die (2008), Mon Mome (2009) & Rule The World (2016)
  • 10-y-o (8 winners)Hallo Dandy (1984), Rough Quest (1996), Earth Summit (1998), Monty’s Pass (2003), Numbersixvalverde (2006), Silver Birch (2007), Don’t Push It (2010), Ballabriggs (2011)
  • 11-y-o (8 winners)Maori Venture (1987), Mr Frisk (1990), Seagram (1991), Miinnehoma (1994), Red Marauder (2001), Neptune Collonges (2012), Auroras Encore (2013), Pineau De Re (2014). 12-y-o (3 winners) Little Polvier (1989), Royal Athlete (1995), Amberleigh House (2004)
  • Out of interest however, Eight-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals – though these were their only victories in the last 15 years

Considering a bet on how many horses will finish the Grand National course? Number of finishers during the last fourteen years (and where the favourites finished in brackets):
2017: 19 of the 40 horses completed the course (with the 8/1 favourite rewarding each way investors by finishing fourth)
2016: 16 horses the completed the course on soft ground (one of the two 8/1 joint favourites finished second, the other finished last of the 16 finishers)

2015: 19 completed the course on good to soft ground (6/1 favourite finished 5th)
2014: 18 completed the course on good to soft ground (good in places) – (2 x 10/1 joint favourites: 3rd & unseated rider)
2013: 17 completed the course on good to soft ground (11/2 favourite finished 13th)
2012: 15 finishers on good ground (8/1 joint favourites finished third and ninth)
2011: 19 finishers on good ground (15/2 favourite finished 6th)
2010: 14 completed the course under good conditions (10/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 4th)
2009: 17 finishers on good to soft ground (7/1 favourite finished seventh)
2008: 15 completed the course on good ground (7/1 joint favourites finished 1st & 6th)
2007: 12 finished on good ground (all three 8/1 co favourites failed to complete the course)
2006: Only nine horses finished on good to soft going (the two 5/1 joint favourites finished 2nd & 3rd)
2005: 21 horses finished the course on good ground (the 7/1 favourite duly obliged)
2004: 11 runners completed (4 x 10/1 co favourites: one finished 2nd–the other three failed to finish the course)
Average number of finishers during the last eleven years: 16 (exactly that number finished the course two years ago)

Total number of favourites during the study period: 25 (three winners–eight placed–seven unplaced, with seven failing to complete the course)

 

FOOTBALL – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT BETTING   

11/4–Barcelona (365/Betway/Sportingbet/BetVictor) – Opponents: Roma

7/2–Manchester City (Sunbets/Uniubet/888) – Liverpool

4/1–Bayern Munich (365/Betfred/Boyle/Betway/BetBright/188) – Sevilla

9/2–Real Madrid (Almost right across the board) – Juvenutus

12/1–Juventus (BetBright/188) – Real Madrid

13/1–Liverpool (Unibet/188/888) – Man City

80/1–Roma (188) – Barcelona

80/1–Sevilla (Sportingbet/188) – Bayern Munich

RECENT FACTS/STATS – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE/EUROPEAN CUP:

Real Madrid have won three of the last four competitions

Juventus have been losing finalists in two of the last three years

Barcelona have reached the final four times in the last 12 years – winning on every occasion

Liverpool won the competition in 2005 – losing their last final against AC Milan two years later

Manchester City have never reached the final

Bayern Munich beat fellow Germans Dortmund in 2013 – have not reached the final since

Roma lost to Livepool in the 1985 final – no subsequent appearances in the final

Sevilla have never reached the final – though Spanish sides have won the last four competitions

 

TUESDAY’S BIG GAME:

JUVENTUS V REAL MADRID (7.45 – BT SPORT):

 2/1–Juventus (365/Betfair/Betfred/BetVictor)

23/10–Draw (Betfair/Unibet/Betway/BetVictor)

8/5–Real Madrid (Hills/Betfred/Betway)

Half time betting:

27/10–Juventus (Ladvbrokes/Coral)

11/10–Draw (365/Betfair)

23/10–Real Madrid (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/BetVictor)

Half time/Full time odds:

21/5–Juventus/Juventus (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Juventus/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

35/1–Juventus/Real Madrid (188)

61/10–Draw/Juventus (Marathon)

22/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

11/2–Draw/Real Madrid (Betfred)

40/1–Real Madrid/Juventus (Ladbrokes/Coral/188)

17/1–Real Madrid/Draw (BetVictor)

7/2–Real Madrid/Real Madrid (BetVictor)

To qualify for the semi-finals: 

9/4–Juventus (365)

4/9–Real Madrid (Skybet/Hills/Betfair/betStars/BetBright/BetVictor)

 

WEDNESDAY’S BIG GAME (LIVERPOOL V MAN CITY (7.45 – BT SPORT):

2/1–Liverpool (365/Hills/Marathon/Betfair/Betfred)

11/4–Draw (Betway)

7/5–Man City (Generally available)

Half time betting:

23/10–Liverpool (PP/Unibet/Betway/BetBirght/188)

13/10–Draw (365/Betfair/Sunbets/Betway)

2/1–Man City (Ladbrokes/Betfair/Coral/Black Type)

Half time/Full time odds:

4/1–Liverpool/Liverpool (BetStars/BetVictor)

15/1–Liverpool/Draw (BetVictor)

28/1–Liverpool/Man City (Black Type)

31/5–Draw/Liverpool (188)

11/2–Draw/Draw (BetVictor)

11/2–Draw/Man City (Sunbets)

30/1–Man City/Liverpool (Marathon/188)

15/1–Man City/Draw (BetVictor)

3/1–Man City/Man City (Betfair/BetStars)

To qualify for the semi-finals:

9/4–Liverpool (365)

4/9–Man City (Skybet/Hills/Betfair/BetStars/BetBright/BetVictor)

 

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