Feb 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 6th

Monday’s school report:

Of the five runners from the seven original MMA entries (1 was withdrawn – the other beaten at 2/9 in a match event), 2 won at 7/1 (returned at 5/1) & 11/2 (SP of 2/1), and two were placed at SP prices of 16/1 and 9/1 having drifted on the day.

On the in form trainer front, Sue Smith snared a 10/3 double via her two runners on the day.  Kevin Ryan’s only runner won at 9/2, whilst Warren Greatrex secured the same feat with a 5/1 chance.

Thursday’s meetings at Doncaster & Huntingdon have now been added to the ‘Ahead of the Game’ service

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 4.15 am) – Unfortunately, these prices will not be assessed later this morning due to a family funeral commitment today.

MARKET RASEN:

2.20: Flemerina – 10/3 (Hills/Betfred/Tote)

3.25: Board Of Trade – 7/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Minella Tweet – 5/2 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betfair/PP)

 

SEDGEFIELD:

3.15: Kilronan Castle – 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

3.50: Fare Thee Well – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.20: Agent Louis – 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

2.00: Lady Jayne – 11/1 (PP)

2.30: Going Native – 8/1 (Hills)

3.05: Classic Pursuit – 9/2 (365/Sunbets)

3.35: Fortinbrass – 11/2 (PP)

4.40: Monzino – 40/1 (Hills – for any loose change about your person)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

15/45—Nicky Henderson (+3) – 1 at Market Rasen: Burrows Edge (2.55)

13/38—Donald McCain (+27) – 4 at Sedgefield: Spin The Coin (1.40), Pastoral Music (2.45), Kilronan Castle (3.15) & Henry’s Joy (3.50)

10/34—Olly Murphy (+17) – 1 at Market Rasen: Simafar (1.50)

10/36—Warren Greatrex (+4) – 1 at Market Rasen: Monthyne (2.55)

6/14—Rose Dobbin (+16) – 1 at Sedgefield: Jack Devine (3.50)

6/16—Sue Smith (+8) – 2 at Market Rasen: Flemerina (2.20) & Just Minded (4.00)

6/19—Roger Fell (+59) – 1 at Souhwell: Plansina (2.00)

4/8—Kevin Ryan (+13) – 2 at Southwell: Foxy Lady (2.00) & Bogart (3.05)

4/12—Iain Jardine (+12) – 1 at Sedgefield: The Delray Munky (4.20)

4/18—Tony Carroll (+41) – 4 at Southwell: Kath’s Boy (3.35), Blistering Dancer & Beau Mistral (4.10) & Spirit Of Tomintoul (4.40)

Last three 3 have won—Ben Pauling (+3) – 1 at Market Rasen: Oistrakh Le Noir (1.50)

3/9—Andrew Balding (+5) – 1 at Southwell: Dawn Dancer (1.30)

Last 2 runners have won—Laura Mongan (+18) – 1 at Sedgefield: Skipping On (2.10)

21 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

1.30: Dawn Dancer

1.40: Spin The Coin

1.50: Oistrakh Le Noir & Simafar

2.00: Plansina & Foxy Lady

2.10: Skipping On

2.20: Flemerina

2.45: Pastoral Music

2.55: Burrows Edge & Monthyne

3.05: Bogart

3.15: Kilronan Castle

3.35: Kath’s Boy

3.50: Henry’s Joy & Jack Devine

4.00: Just Minded

4.10: Blistering Dancer & Beau Mistral

4.20: The Delray Munky

4.40: Spirit Of Tomintoul

 

Tuesday Stat Attack (Five year study period unless stated)

MARKET RASEN:

19 races – 10 winning favourites – All 18 winners scored at a top price of 7/1

Average Placepot dividend: £532.33

Highest dividend: £1,581.60 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £5.30 (2014)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Seventeen different trainers have saddled the nineteen winners.  Unfortunately, the only trainer to have stood out from the crowd is Venetia Williams (three winners at 7/1, 11/4 & 15/8*) who did not have any runners involved at the penultimate stage.

SEDGEFIELD:

18 races – 7 winning favourites –17/18 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £66.87

Highest dividend: £86.90 (2016) – Lowest dividend: £49.90 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

2 winners—Donald McCain (15/2 & 6/4**) – 4 runners today: Spin The Coin (1.40), Pastoral Music (2.45), Kilronan Castle (3.15) & Henry’s Joy (3.50)

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ – TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

TUESDAY:

There is no history to the A/W meeting at Southwell on Tuesday.

SEDGEFIELD:

1.40: Both (3/1 & 4/7) favourites have won in facile fashion, scoring by an aggregate distance of eleven lengths.

3.15: Although all three favourites have been beaten thus far (two finished second), the biggest priced winner to date scored at 9/2.

4.20: We still await the first winning favourite – top priced winner thus far: 12/1.  Five of the six winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones.

MARKET RASEN:

2.55: All three winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 with one favourite having won at 9/4.  Five of the seven available Placepot positions have been claimed by six-year-olds, whilst two vintage representatives have won their respective events.

3.25: All three winners carried 11-3 or more, whilst six-year-olds have secured five of the eight available Placepot positions (two winners).

4.00: Eight-year-olds have won all three contests thus far.  Market leaders have won two of the three renewals, the biggest price gold medallist having been returned at 4/1.  All three winners carried 11-4 or more.

4.30: Both (4/6 & 4/9) favourites have scored in facile fashion, winning by an aggregate of eleven lengths.

 

WEDNESDAY:

LUDLOW:

Mares handicap hurdle (scheduled for 2.40): Six-year-olds have won three of the four contests.

20 furlong – Class 3 handicap chase (scheduled for 3.15): Three winning favourites have been recorded via six renewals since 2008.  Six-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the contest.

Class 4 maiden hurdle (scheduled for 4.45): Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals.  Five years have slipped by since a winning market leader was recorded, though five of the six winners have scored at a top price of just 7/2.

CARLISLE:

17 furlong – novice hurdle (scheduled for 1.50): Five-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals, whilst all five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 5/1 (two winning favourites).  Micky Hammond has Cornerstone Lad entered up, having won two recent renewals.

Three mile novice handicap chase at Class 4 level (scheduled for 2.20): Four of the last five winners have scored at 16/1, 14/1 & 12/1 (twice).  Seven-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, whilst five of the last six have carried a minimum weight of 11-2.

Novice hurdle event for mares – 19 furlongs (scheduled for 2.55): Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals. Donald McCain has saddled two recent winners and the trainer holds one entry this time around, namely Banrion Scairp.

Class 4 two mile novice limited handicap chase (scheduled for 3.25): Favourites have won all three races to date.

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.25: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst 5/6 have carried nine stones or more.  The last six winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

6.25: – All four winners have won at a top price of 3/1 – including two winning favourites.  Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four contests.

8.25: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last six contests, whilst the last four gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-4.  Market leaders have secured four of the eight renewals.

FAKENHAM is essentially a new meeting, whilst there is no history to the meeting at CHELMSFORD.

 

THURSDAY:

DONCASTER:

Class 4 – Three mile handicap chase (scheduled for 1.55): Two of the four contests have been won by favourite during which time, the biggest priced winner scored at 4/1.  All four winners carried a minimum burden of 11-3.

Three mile qualifying handicap hurdle event (scheduled for 3.30): Six-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst just one favourite has prevailed via nine contests during the last decade.  Trainers Jonjo O’Neill and Alan King have both saddled two winners during the last eight years, with each handler holding two options at the penultimate stage.

Conditional jockey’s handicap hurdle event (scheduled for 4.40): Six-year-olds have claimed four of the last six renewals, whilst the last seven gold medallists scored at a top price of 10/1.  Market leaders have won three of the last four renewals.

HUNTINGDON:

Class 4 – Limited novice handicap chase (scheduled for 1.45): Seven-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals. Two favourites have won via eight contests during the last decade, whilst five of the last six gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/1.

‘Sidney Banks’ Class 1 event (scheduled for 2.15): Warren Greatrex comes into the race on a hat trick having entered just one horse at the four day stage, namely six-year-old Western Ryder.  Six-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst just one market leader has prevailed during the last nine years.  That said, six of the last nine have won at a top price of 9/2.

Class 2 handicap hurdle (scheduled for 2.50): Venetia Williams has won two of the last four contests when represented, with the trainer holding just one card in her hand at the time of writing, namely Bonne Question. Favourites have won three of the last eight contests during the last decade, whilst seven of those winners scored at a top price of 8/1. All eight winners carried a maximum burden of 11-1.

Handicap chase over 30 furlongs at Class 4 level (scheduled for 3.20): Market leaders have won three of the last four contests, whilst six of the last eight gold medallist were returned at 9/1 or less.

Class 4 – 25 furlong handicap hurdle event (scheduled for 3.55): Favourites have won three of the last four renewals, whilst all eight winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 7/1.

Mares flat race (scheduled for 4.30): Five-year-olds have won all four renewals during which time, two favourites wove won, whilst all four gold medallists were returned ay 8/1 or less.

Be lucky but as always – Be aware!

 

 

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