Mar 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 6th

MY LATEST CHELTENHAM WORK WAS POSTED AT 12.30 AND CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOOT OF THE COLUMN JUST  ABOVE THE FOOTBALL OFFERING FOR THIS EVENING….

Monday’s school report:

We got back on track yesterday when three MMA winners emerged at bigger prices than the returned starting prices which was extreme in the case of our 9/1 gold medallist which was sent off as a 3/1 chance.

*Point of order: After he had saddled five winners on the day before the Cheltenham Festival started last year from as many runners (as highlighted that morning by yours truly before the nigh 1000/1 accumulator evolved), Fergal O’Brien did not exclaim surprise as he was quoted as saying that his horses are trained to peak at this time of year (when the prize money increases no doubt)!  It’s interesting to note accordingly, that his one runner on the Sandown card on Saturday (Highway One O One) has two Grade 3 options at the time of writing, both in the Imperial Cup and in another handicap on the card. I’ll keep you posted…

I hope you picked up on another Cheltenham snippet which was posted yesterday around lunchtime, with more work scheduled to be offered later this morning – keep that link open as you never know what time I will strike!

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am)

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

3.20: Katie Gale – 7/2 (365)

4.20: Zaeem – 10/1 (365) – NON RUNNER

4.50: Princess Way – 6/1 (365/Betfair/Sunbets/BetVictor)

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 33% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

4/11 (+11) – Mike Murphy – 1 today: Magicinthemaking (4.50)

4/14—David Evans (+26) – 2 chances: Ochos Rios (2.50) & Princess Way (4.50)

Last two runners have won—Ivan Furtado (+14) – 2 runners: Zaeem (4.20) & Zone In (4.20)

3/9—Olly Murphy – 2 today: Avoocet (2.50) & Napping (3.50)

2/5—David Brown (+1) – 2 chances: Simply Clever (2.50) & Trading Punches (4.20)

9 runners in race order via the in-form trainer list:

2.50: Simply Clever, Ochos Rios & Avocet

3.50: Napping

4.20: Trading Punches & Zaeem

4.50: Magicinthemaking & Princess Way

5.20: Zone In

 

CHELTENHAM 2018 

I dislike the generalisation that is spouted by supposed media ‘experts’ when discussing whether punters have won or lost, particularly at big meetings such as the Cheltenham Festival.

A relevant expert suggested that bookmakers had “undoubtedly won the battle” over the punters last year during the course of the week, but surely only from a ‘majority’ perspective.  I know of several people who enjoyed their best ever Festival, whilst plenty of punters put together multiple bets regarding popular trainers during the week that worked out perfectly via Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Jessica Harrington supporters.

Gordon Elliott: 1,988/1 treble on Tuesday, 39/1 double on Wednesday & a 12/1 winner on Friday.  Willie Mullins: 178/1 4-timer on Thursday & 356/1 double on Friday.  Jessica Harrington: 87/1 double on Friday having saddled a 16/1 winner on Wednesday.  Add the point that the champion jockey (Richard Johnson) rode a 33/1 winner in the mix and the lesson should be learned; don’t generalise guys!

This is the type of service that you can expect next week.  These type of stats will be available on the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, relating to how the results are stacking up – number of entries each day for successful trainers, prices of winner etc, notwithstanding negative figures for popular trainers who have yet to saddle a winner.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL STATS GOING INTO FRIDAY MARCH 17 2017;

Leading trainers to date this week:

5/20—Gordon Elliott (Profit of 40 points to level stakes) – 11 runners today: Mega Fortune & Dinaria Des Obeaux (1.30), Mick Jazz & Tell Us More (2.10), Death Duty (2.50), Outlander & Empire Of Dirt (3.30), Taglietelle, Champagne Classic & Runfordave (4.50) & The Game Changer (5.30)

4/34—Willie Mullins (10/1, 7/4*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 11 runners today: Dandymag & Bapaume (1.30), Renetti & Arctic Flyer (2.10), Penhill, Turcagua, Augusta Kate & C’est Jersey (2.50), Dhjakadam (3.30) & Battleford & Castello Sforza (4.50)

3/28—Nicky Henderson (5/1, 7/2* & 1/4*) – 9 runners today: Charli Parcs & Soldier In Action (1.30), L’ami Serge (2.10), Constantine Bay & Baden (2.50), Rather Be, Protek Des Flos & Thomas Campbell (4.50) & Theinval (5.30)

1/1—Stuart Edmunds (+40 LSP) – No more runners at the meeting

1/2—P G Kelly (+10 LSP) – No more runners at the meeting

1/4—Jessica Harrington (+13 LSP) – 3 runners: Sizing John (3.30) & Rock The Word & Mr Fiftyone (5.30)

1/4—Nick Williams (+30 LSP) – 2 runners: Tea For Two (3.30) & Coo Star Sivola (4.50)

1/4—Alan Fleming (+5 LSP) – 1 runner: Velvet Maker (5.30)

1/4—Ben Pauling (+11 LSP) – 2 runners: Jaleo (2.10) & Dolatulo (4.10)

1/8—Noel Meade (+7 LSP) – 2 runners: De Name Escapes Me & Joey Sasa (2.10)

1/9—David Pipe (+1 LSP) – 2 runners: Maggie Du Ma (1.30) & Dell’ Arca (4.50)

1/14—Henry De Bromhead (11/1) – 2 runners: Monalee (2.50) & Champagne West (3.30)

Trainers still searching for their first winner this week include:

0/18—Alan King

0/17—Paul Nicholls

0/13—Colin Tizzard

0/13—Nigel Twiston-Davis

Six year trends relating to the Friday of the Festival:

Leading trainers:

5 winners—Nicky Henderson (20/1, 7/2*, 11/4*, 2/1* & 15/8*)

5—Willie Mullins (25/1, 12/1, 10/1, 7/1 & 9/2*)

5—Paul Nicholls (28/1, 16/1, 14/1, 11/1 & 13/2)

Selected favourite stats on day four during the study period:

4/9—Nicky Henderson

1/7—Willie Mullins

Total of 11 winning favourites during the last six years

Odds on ratio: None

Average Placepot dividend (2011 – 2016 inclusive): £1,680.90 – 39 favourites in Placepot races – 10 winners – 7 placed – 22 unplaced (exact science)

 

BEST PRICES ON TONIGHT’S STAND OUT GAME (PSG/REAL MADRID) – Live on BT Sport – 7.45 KO

10/11—PSG (Marathon/Betfair/Betway)

3/1—Draw (Betfair)

7/2—Real Madrid (Skybet)

Half time betting:

29/20—PSG (Hills)

15/9—Draw (Betfair)

11/4—Real Madrid (Ladbrokes/Skybet/Coral)

 

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

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