Apr 11

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 11th

Tuesday’s school report:

5 runners this afternoon after being offered at 5.00 am – backed down from; 12/1 to 9/4* – 16/1 to 15/2 – 7/1 to 7/2 – 18/1 to 14/1 – 7/1 to 11/2 – and not a winner between them – That was the message I sent via Twitter late in the afternoon yesterday before we had a couple of winners last night at 4/1 & 5/2 which were returned at 3/1 and 11/8 respectively.

Fortunately the price (11/10) which I had flagged up on each of the last two mornings about there being three goals or more in the Manchester City/Liverpool game obliged whilst for the second day in a row, horses via my in-form trainer sector ran riot!

Venetia Williams topped the list yesterday with a 218/1 treble via her six runners which takes her current ratio to 7/13 – stats which have produced 35 points of level stake profit.

Tony Carroll is now 3/4 after his 11/1 winner Scrafton which was his only runner on the day.  Llantara (10/3) and Jungle Room (7/4) produced similar results for Tom Symonds and Kevin Ryan respectively who boast recent figures in turn of 4/9 (+22) and 6/19 (+13)

APPROXIMMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

3.15: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.45: MAL’S  MARKET RASEN ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 5 ADDITIONS

9.15: MARKET RASEN STAT ATTACK – FIVE YEAR STUDY PERIOD – DONE

9.30: FOOTBALL SERVICE – 2 BIG GAMES TELEVISED TONIGHT – DOMESTIC & CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – DONE

10.30: FOCUS ON WINDSOR FOR THE START OF THEIR SEASON NEXT MONDAY – DONE

11.30: EARLY LOOK AT THE THE CRAVEN MEETING AT NEWMARKET NEXT WEEK ALONGSIDE THE SPRING WEEKEND MEETING AT NEWBURY – YES, THERE IS LIFE BEYOND AINTREE – WEATHER PERMITTING! – DONE

12.00: FURTHER GRAND NATIONAL COMMENT/INFORMATION – DONE

 

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

MARKET RASEN:

3.05: Zen Master – 4/1 (365/Hills)

4.10: Minella Scamp – 9/2 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Market Rasen entries at 8.30:

NONE

 

LINGFIELD (A/W):

1.40: Sir Jamie – 16/1 (365/BetVictor)

2.10: Quick Monet – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.45: Duba Plains – 9/2 (365)

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.30:

3.15: Hidden Stash – 12/1 (365/Marathon/BetVictor)

5.20: Attain – 6/1 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

5.45: Ross Raith Rover – 10/1 (Generally Available)

6.45: Perfect Hustler – 9/4 (365/Sktney/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

7.15: Mukajjal – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.45: Two horses to consider: Four Fifty Three – 5/2 (Hills) & Giovanni Medici – 16/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/BetBright/BetVictor)

Additional Kempton entries at 8.30:

6.15: Sods Law – 4/1 (Generally available)

8.15: Count Calabash (12/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

9.15: Run With Pride – 12/1 (365)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

10/25—Paul Nicholls (+8) – 3 runners: Mont Des Avalois (2.00 Market Rasen), Ataguiseamix (2.30 Market Rasen) & Birds Of Prey (8.15 Kempton)

7/13—Venetia Williams (+35) – 1 at Market Rasen: Russborough (4.40)

7/16—Joseda Noseda (+1) – 1 at Kempton: Perfect Hustler (6.45)

6/10—Micky Hammond (+47) – 2 at Market Rasen: Roxyfet (3.35) & Square Viviani (4.40)

5/15—Michael Herrington (+12) – 1 at Kempton: Mishaal (9.15)

5/15—Ian Williams (+14) – 2 at Kempton: One Flew Over (6.45) & Paddy A (7.45)

4/10—Simon Dow (+12) – 1 at Lingfield: Roundabout Magic (4.20)

4/10—Charlie Wallis (+12) – 1 at Kempton: Billyoakes (9.15)

3/4—Tony Carroll (+17) – 1 at Lingfield: Sir Jamie (1.40)

3/8—John Gosden – 2 runners at Kempton: Fennaan (6.15 Kempton) & Nordic Passage (6.45 Kempton)

2/3—Andrew Balding (+2) – 3 chances: Dream Catching (2.40 Lingfield), Annie Mae (4.50 Lingfield) & Pak Choi (6.15 Kempton)

2/3—Jamie Snowden (+6) – 2 at Market Rasen: Midnight Chill (2.30) & Shockingtimes (4.40)

2/4—Eve Johnson Houghton (+6) – 2 at Kempton: Count Calabash (8.15) & New Rich (9.15)

22 runners listed in race order:

1.40: Sir Jamie

2.00: Mont Des Avalois

2.30: Ataguiseamix & Midnight Chill

2.40: Dream Catching

3.35: Foxyfet

4.20: Roundabout Magic

4.40: Shocking Times, Russborough & Square Viviani

4.50: Annie Mae

6.15: Fennaan & Pak Choi

6.45: Nordic Passage, One Flew Over & Perfect Hustler

7.45: Paddy A

8.15: Birds Of Prey & Count Calabash

9.15: Billyoakes, New Rich & Mishaal

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK – MARKET RASEN – 5 YEAR STURDY PERIOD:

35 races –16  winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £254.66

Highest dividend: £539.40 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £14.00 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Unfortunately Dr Richard Newland and Jonjo O’Neill have no runners at the meeting, despite the fact they have both saddled five winners at the corresponding fixture in recent years.  This meeting used to be stage on a Sunday, which could be the reason for this year’s ‘defection’.

 

GRAND NATIONAL – WHATEVER THE BOOKMAKERS OFFER – DON’T GET ‘TAKEN IN’ BY THEIR WAFFLE!

In terms of backing the Grand National winner (should you be so fortunate) have a few quid on the tote at least, given the following facts.

The Tote has paid considerably more than the starting prices in eight of the last ten years, even when Tony McCoy rode his one and only National winner in 2010 (Don’t Push It).  Only the marginal ‘losses’ in 2017 & 2011 prevented a clean sweep against the bookmakers starting prices, with some returns ‘dwarfing’ the SP’s.

Indeed, the tote holds a 49.3% surplus to level stakes during the period over and above the starting prices.

2017: 14/1 winner – Tote paid £14.70

2016: 33/1 winner – Tote paid £44.50

2015: 25/1 winner – Tote paid £32.90

2014: 25/1 winner – Tote paid £32.80

2013: 66/1 winner – Tote paid £133.00

2012: 33/1 winner – Tote paid £47.80

2011: 14/1 winner – Tote paid £14.50

2010: 10/1 winner for Tony McCoy – Tote paid £15.70

2009: 100/1 winner – Tote paid 158.40

2008: 7/1 winner – Tote paid 8.90

Don’t back a loser before the race has even been contested!

 

EARLY THOUGHTS ON WINDSOR NEXT MONDAY (16TH APRIL):

The leading trainer at Windsor in the early weeks of last season was Clive Cox who boasted a 3/5 ratio, statistics which had produced 22 points of level stake profit.

Clive has just the one runner entered on Monday which is Icart Point in the Class 5 three-year-old handicap which is scheduled for 4.50.  Making his handicap debut if declared to run, Icart Point might be best backed in running, given that he has taken quite a pull in his last two (of three) assignments.  It’s worth noting that Clive secured an 84/1 double on this corresponding card twelve months ago.

As far as the corresponding meeting is concerned, Rod Millman is the joint leading trainer on the three winner mark (11/1, 7/2* & 3/1**).  Rod has four runners in on Monday.  It will not surprise readers to know that sharing the leader-board down the years is Richard Hannon who has seven runners engaged at the time of writing.

The two-year-old race on the card could be very interesting because with Mick Channon having won with three of his four starters in the juvenile sector to date, Mick’s only potential runner in the juvenile event at the alternative royal venue is Solesmes who could make her debut for the popular handler.

Things might get really interesting before Monday however because Mick’s fifth two-year-old runner might have run at Wolverhampton (scheduled for 7.30) on Saturday, namely Knockabout Queen.  As ever, I will do my best to update news as it evolves.

 

NEXT WEEK’S CRAVEN MEETING  AT NEWMARKET AND NEWBURY’S SPRING MEETING ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

If the weather allows, I’ll wager that John Gosden will start the ‘real season’ off in grand style, as we have come to expect down the years.

John saddled six winners at the Craven meeting last year, notching a 9/1 double on the Tuesday, a terrific 496/1 treble on the Wednesday (12/1 – 15/2 – 7/2**) and a lone (successful) 5/2 favourite on the last day.

The popular trainer then travelled on to Newbury where he bagged five winners.  Going back further in time however, we find that John has saddled 17 winners at the Friday/Saturday meeting at the Bekshire venue during the last four (five) years (meeting abandoned in 2016)!

Yes it’s warming up nicely or at least, it should be by this time next week!

 

REAL MADRID V JUVENTUS – LIVE ON BT SPORT TONIGHT – 7.45 KO:

8/13–Real Madrid (Generally available)

7/2–Draw (365/Marathon/Unibet/Betfred/188/BetVictor)

24/5–Juventus (Unibet)

Half time betting: 

23/20–Real Madrid (Ladbrokes/Hills/Coral)

13/8–Draw (Betfair)

22/5–Juventus (Marathon)

Half time/Full time odds:

6/4–Real Madrid/Real Madrid (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetStars)

17/1–Real Madrid/Draw (188/BetVictor)

55/1–Real Madrid/Juventus (Marathon)

41/10–Draw/Real Madrid (Marathon)

77/10–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

13/1–Draw/Juventus (Marathon)

25/1–Juventus/Real Madrid (BetVictor)

19/1–Juventus/Draw (BetVictor)

17/2–Juventus/Juventus (Generally available)

 

WOLVES V DERBY – LIVE ON SKY TONIGHT – 7.45 KO:

8/13–Wolves (Generally available)

29/10–Draw (365/Betfair/188/888/BetVictor)

28/5–Derby (Marathon)

Half Time Betting:

13/10–Wolves (Ladbrokes/Coral)

6/5–Draw (Marathon/Unibet/888)

28/5–Derby (Marathon)

Half time/Full time odds:

8/5–Wolves/Wolves (Ladbrokes/Coral)

20/1–Wolves/Draw (Ladbrokes)

80/1–Wolves/Derby (Sportingbet)

71/20–Draw/Wolves (Marathon)

27/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

14/1–Draw Derby (Marathon)

28/1–Derby/Wolves (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor)

20/1–Derby/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

10/1–Derby/Derby (Generally available)

Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!

 

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