Jun 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 13th

  • I have received quite a few comments already about the ‘away meeting’ work for next week with plenty of people basically asking “what’s the point”.

The point (fundamentally) is that this service tries to provide ways of readers backing winners, wherever the horses race and yes unfortunately for some, that includes gold medallists at A/W venues!

Royal Ascot rightly deserves its billing as a headline week but don’t let the media fool you that better races produce better results for punters.

FACTS relating to next week from last year are as follows:

The percentage of winning favourites at Royal Ascot: 30.4% – elsewhere: 36.2

The number winners scoring at a top price of 12/1 at the royal meeting: 70% – elsewhere: 94%

It’s not for me to tell you where and when to bet, I’m just here to give you facts and occasional opinion.

The defence rests!

 

Tuesday’s school report:

Two late MMA winners at Lingfield saved the day at 4/1 (returned at 3/1**) & 7/4 (10/11*).  Five placed horses compounded the frustration at 9/1 (9/2), 6/1 (4/1), 6/1 (9/2), 4/1 (4/1) & 7/2 (5/2).

Eight other horses were well backed only to finish out with the washing, including those at 25/1 (14/1), 9/1 (5/1), 15/2 (9/2), 9/2 (7/4) & 9/2 (15/8).

On the positive front, Tuesdays Stat Attack gave us a 58/1 treble for Dan Skelton at Southwell, whilst Archie Watson’s only A/W runner at Lingfield (as highlighted) scored at 11/4.  On the turf at Lingfield, one of the two selections via the relevant stat attack won at 3/1.

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:

3.00: WEDNESDAY’S STAT ATTACKS – DONE

3.30: STATS/FACTS FROM THE ‘AWAY MEETINGS’ FROM TUESDAY TO SATURDAY (INCLUSIVE) FOR NEXT WEEK WHEN ROYAL ASCOT IS THE PRIME MEETING – BASED ON LAST YEARS RESULTS – DONE

5.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA (MORNING MARKET ASSESSMENT) SERVICE – DONE

6.45: MAL’S HAMILTON ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES/ADDITONS – DONE WITH 7 ADDITIONS

9.00: TWO YEAR OLD NOTES – DONE

 

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

  • This generally looks like a small stake each way play day from my angle…..

HAMILTON:

6.00: Berlios – 10/3 (Hills)

7.00: Rosemay – 4/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.30: Mr Wagyu – 5/2 (365)

8.00: Haymarket – 16/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

8.30: Afandem – 7/2 (Generally available)

9.00: Imperial Legend – 12/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Hamilton entry at 8.30:

6.30: Lads Order – 14/1 (Generally available)

 

HAYDOCK:

4.10: Two horses to consider: Stonific – 6/1 (888) & Sofia’s Rock – 11/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Amourice – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.10: Kraka – 13/2 (Skybet)

Additional Haydock entries at 8.30:

2.10: Plentiful – 10/1 (Generally available)

3.40: Dragons Tail – 9/1 (365/Hills/Betway/BetBright)

 

YARMOUTH:

2.00: Malaysian Boleh – 6/1 (365)

3.00: Tomshalfbrother – 33/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.30: Gran Maestro – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

4.00: Polar Light – 11/2 (Generally available)

4.30: Restless Rose – 15/2 (Skybet/Marathon/BetVictor)

5.00: Suzi’s Connoisseur – 11/2 (Hills/Betfair)

Additional Yarmouth entries at 8.30:

NONE

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

6.40: Two horses to consider: Airshow – 7/1  (Generally available) & Capla Demon – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.40: Berkshire – 7/2 (Generally available)

8.10: Nightingale Valley – 11/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

8.40: Dark Side Dream – 16/1 (Hills/Coral)

Additional Kempton entry at 8.30:

6.10: Mach One – 11/2 (Betfair/Unibet/Betway)

 

CHELMSFORD:

2.20: Pot Luck – 10/1 (365)

3.30: Danzay – 13/5 (Marathon)

4.50: Tivoli – 5/1 (PP)

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.30:

3.50: Love Dreams – 15/2 (365/Hills/Betway/BetVictor)

4.20: Gold Filigree – 15/2 (BetBright)

5.20: Drill – 9/2 (Unibet)

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS:

HAMILTON:

28 races – 12 winning favourites – All 28 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer at Hamilton this season:

3/9—Rebecca Bastiman (7/2*, 11/4* & 13/8*) – 5 runners: Berlios (6.00), Zumurud (7.30), Natajack (8.00), Logi (8.30) & Foxy Boy (9.00)

 

HAYDOCK:

47 races (48 winners via a dead heat) – 18 winning favourites – 45/48 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading representeds trainer (in terms of percentages) at Haydock this season:

3/10—William Haggas (4/1, 11/4* & 11/8*) – 1 runner: Croque Monsieur (3.10)

3/10—Hugo Palmer (66/1, 9/2 & 5/2*) – 1 runner: Caliburn (2.10)

 

YARMOUTH:

39 races – 16 winning favourites – 37/39 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer at Yarmouth this season:

3/7—Lydia Pearce (9/1, 7/2 & 11/4) – 2 runners: African Girl (2.30) & Sexy Secret (3.30)

 

CHELMSFORD:

Latest findings at Chelmsford (last 6 meetings)

42 races – 16 winning favourites – 37/42 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Recent leading trainer:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (6/1, 7/2, 3/1* & 11/4) – 5 runners today: I’ll Have Another (2.20), Danzay (3.20), Masham Star & Love Dreams (3.50) & Rebel Assault (4.50)

 

KEMPTON:

Latest findings at Kempton (last 6 meetings):

44 races – 17 winning favourites – 41/44 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Recent leading trainer:

5 winners—John Gosden (10/3, 3/1, 5/2, 2/1* & 1/2*) – 1 runner: Hinde Street (7.10)

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES (Just like the MMA comment: “each way play day” – fund accordingly): 

2.20 Chelmsford: 

Pot Luck was the each way call regarding the early prices at the break of day and the only difference now is that you will have to settle for around 8/1 instead of the 10’s which was unavailable to those who can get out of bed in the morning!  Such is the complex juvenile scene however, that it does not do to sound too bullish about the price of two-year-olds with five hours left before flag fall.

2.40 Haydock: 

The exchange players will not hear of defeat for New Winds this morning, though a working man’s price he will not be!

2.50 Chelmsford: 

If there is a win and place juvenile to offer here it could be in the shape of Jamie Osborne’s Sir Pranecalot newcomer The Numismatist who tips the scales at around the 16/1 mark at the time of writing.  Michael Bell’s raider Fast Endeaviour was touted up at the first time of asking by yours truly and can only run a better race this time around.

3.00 Yarmouth: 

365 and BetVictor are out on a limb by offering Pheonix Star at 20/1 as I come towards the end of my morning work and Chris Dwyer’s represenative appears to have taken the ‘best of the roughie’s’ mantle from Tomshalfbrother who looked big at 33/1 earlier in the day.

6.30 Hamilton:

Barely half an hour ago in the MMA sector I included Lads Order in the mix at 14/1, with Tony Coyle’s Lilbourne Lad raider now as short as 9/1 in a place.  It will be interesting to see if the support is sustained throughout the day.

 

STATS/FACTS FROM THE ‘AWAY MEETINGS’ FROM TUESDAY TO SATURDAY (INCLUSIVE) FOR NEXT WEEK WHEN ROYAL ASCOT IS THE PRIME MEETING – BASED ON LAST YEARS RESULTS – THIS ARTICLE WILL BE REPEATED NEXT MONDAY:

FLAT SECTOR (TURF):

101 races – 31 winning favourites (30.7% of races) – 96/101 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (95%)

Leading trainers:

5 winners—Keith Dalgleish (6/1, 5/1, 7/2, 5/2 & 6/4*)

5 winners—Richard Fahey (4/1, 7/4*, 5/4*, 8/11* & 4/6*)

5 winners—Mark Johnston (6/1, 2/1, 15/8, Evens* & 4/6*)

5 winners—David O’Meara (11/1, 15/2, 3/1, 11/4 & 2/1)

4 winners—Mick Channon (6/1, 4/1, 11/4** & 7/4*)

4 winners—Tim Easterby (14/1, 9/1, 7/1 & 6/5*)

3 winners—Michael Dods (7/1 (twice) & 10/11*)

3 winners—Jim Goldie (17/2, 8/1 & 10/3*)

3 winners—John Quinn (15/2, 7/1 & 5/2**)

 

FLAT SECTOR (A/W):

21 races – 9 winning favourites (42.8% of races) – 19 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (90.5%)

The only two trainers to saddle a brace of winners were Roger Charlton (Evens* & 4/6*) & Sir Mark Prescott (12/1 & 4/5*)

That said, David O’Meara also saddled a winner at 7/2 to add to his five winners on turf during the relevant study period

 

NH SECTOR:

27 races – 14 winning favourites (51.9% of races) – 25/27 (94%) of winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers:

4 winners—Peter Bowen (11/2, 3/1, 3/1* & 11/10*)

3 winners—Tom George (5/2 & 4/6* twice)

3 winners—Dan Skelton (3/1, 6/4* & 5/6*)

 

TOTALS:

149 races – 54 winning favourites (36.2% of races) – 140/149 winners scored at a top price of 12/1 (94%)

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