Mar 14

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 14th

PLENTY OF ADDED FEATURES/POINTERS ADDED BELOW – SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING – *UPDATED AT 19.30 with Betfair Exchange activity this evening – look towards the bottom of the column for latest ‘prices’.

THINKING AHEAD OF THE GAME? An early bet this afternoon on the Barcelona/Chelsea game tonight could help to play up any winnings from this afternoon or work as a ‘get out of jail’ free option this evening.

There are ‘differences of opinions’ everywhere you look in the match, particularly in the Half time – Full time markets, which is always good news for punters.  Good luck if you play (featured at the bottom of the column).  For readers who looked at the football scenario earlier today, the H/T-F/T offering was added at 13.15.

 

Keep this link open for updated Cheltenham Festival non runners:

2.50: Project Bluebook

5.30: Herecomestheboom

 

CHELTENHAM LEADERBORD (TRAINERS) NOW ON VIEW BELOW

 

Tuesday’s school report:

Nice MMA winners yesterday at 8/1 (Cheltenham), 15/2 (Sedgefield) and 8/1 at Newcastle, the horse I argued was the pick of the day at 5.00 on Tuesday morning.  Throw in the 18/1 runner up Shantou Flyer at Prestbury Park alongside a 66/1 silver medallist which looked all over the winner coming away from the last flight before the Mullins/Walsh bandwagon upset the applecart – and readers should have been relatively happy on the day!

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TIMELINE:

16.30: OTHER CHELTENHAM UPDATES/FEATURES FOR THE THIRD DAY – DONE

15.00: THURSDAY STAT ATTACKS – INCLUDING CHELTENHAM

17.30: BETFAIR – MONEY PILING UP ON WHICH HORSES AT CHELTENHAM ON THURSDAY – BOTH LAYS & PLAYS? –

 

LEADERBOARD OF TRAINERS AFTER DAY ONE OF THE CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

3/13–Willie Mullins (9/2, 9/2, 5/6*) – 18 runners today: Next Destination, Duc Des Genieves, Scarpeta & Brahma Bull, (1.30), Bonbon Au Miel & Al Boum Photo (2.10), Max Dynamite, Bleu Berry, C’Est Jersey, Voix Du Reve & Abbyssial (2.50), Min & Douvan (3.30), Blackbow, Tornado Flyer, Colreevy, Carefully Selected & Relegate (5.30)

1/1–Mick Channon (13/2) – No more runners at Cheltenham this week!

1/2–Nick Williams (5/1*) – 2 runners today: Esprit De Somoza & Mercenaire (4.50)

1/3–Tom George (9/1) – 6 runners today: Black Op (1.30), God’s Own (3.30), Sainte Are (4.10), Casa Tall (4.50) & The Big Bite & Seddon (5.30)

1/10–Nicky Henderson (4/6*) – 6 runners today: William Henry, Stowaway Magic, Fixe Le Kap & Burbank (2.50), Altior (3.30) & Style Le garde (4.50)

Trainers awaiting their first winner at the Festival  this week include:

0/7–Gordon Elliott (10 runners today)

0/5–Colin Tizzard (5 today)

0/4–Henry De Bromhead (4 today)

0/4–Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 today)

 

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHELTENHAM:

2.10: Dounikos – 8/1 (Betfair/Boyle) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 15/2

2.50: Springtown Lake – 25/1 (betfair/PP/Unibet/Boyle/BetVictor) – NOW 22/1

4.10: Urgent De Gregaine – 16/1 (Generally available) – NOW 14/1

4.40: Grand Sancy – 20/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – NOW 16/1

5.30: Rhinestone – 8/1 (Generally available) – NOW 15/2

Additional Cheltenham entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

HUNTINGDON:

1.45: Pirate Look – 6/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 9/2

2.25: Global Domination – 4/1 (PP/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 7/2

3.45: Bisoubisou – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/2

5.40: West To The Bridge – 7/4 (365) – NOW 11/8

Additional Huntingdon entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

1.55: Medici Moon – 14/1 (365/PP) – Arguably the call of the day – NOW 9/1

2.35: Dubstep – 9/2 (Ladbrokes) – NOW 7/2

3.15: Custard The Dragon – 7/1 (365) – NOW 11/2

5.15: Teardrop Island – 10/1 (PP/BetVictor) – NOW 8/1

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

6.15: Outback Blue – 16/1 (PP) – NOW 14/1

6.45: Dubai Landmark – 5/1 (365/Skybet/Betfair/PP/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 7/2

7.15: Bowditch: 4/5 (365/Hills) – NOW 8/11

7.45: Mother Of Dragons – 13/2 (Betfair) – NOW 5/1

8.45: Verstappen – 13/2 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 11/2

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 8.00:

5.45: Dream Farm – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

8.15: Inuk – 7/1 (365/BetVictor)

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK (Five year study period unless stated):

CHELTENHAM:

35 races – 8 winning favourites – 21/35 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £1,021.68

Highest dividend: £3,255.40 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £36.40 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

5 winners—Willie Mullins (25/1, 3/1, 9/4*, 13/8*, 6/4*) – 18 runners on Wednesday: Next Destination, Duc Des Genieves, Scarpeta & Brahma Bull, (1.30), Bonbon Au Miel & Al Boum Photo (2.10), Max Dynamite, Bleu Berry, C’Est Jersey, Voix Du Reve & Abbyssial (2.50), Min & Douvan (3.30), Blackbow, Tornado Flyer, Colreevy, Carefully Selected & Relegate (5.30)

 

HUNTINGDON (Four year study):

28 races – 10 winning favourites – 24/28 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £137.13

Highest dividend: £297.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £10.00 (2013)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Jonjo O’Neill (8/1, 3/1, 15/8, 15/8**) – 2 runners declared: Your Wan (3.05) & Oaklee Hall (5.05)

 

SOUTHWELL (A/W):

36 races – 24 winning favourites – 35/36 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £118.66

Highest dividend: £275.00 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £6.00 (20113)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—Mick Appleby (6/1, 5/1, 4/7*, 8/15*) – 2 runners entered: Classic Pursuit (3.55) & Aragon Knight (5.15)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

34 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £68.72

Highest dividend: £156.10 (2013) – Lowest dividend: £25.50 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—David Evans (9/2, 7/2, 10/11*) – No runners unfortunately – offered for you to retain

 

TRAINERS WITH MOST WINNERS IN TODAY’S RACES AT CHELTENHAM:

1.30: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (4)

4 runners: Next Destination, Duc Des Gebieves, Scarpeta & Brahma Bull

2.10: RSA Insurance Novices’

Chase (Grade 1)  – Willie Mullins (4)

2 runners: Bonbon Au Niel & Al Boum Photo

2.50: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – ‘Team Pipe’ (3)

No runners this year

3.30: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) – Recent best: Paul Nicholls (5)

1 runner: Politologue

4.10: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase – Enda Bolger (5)

3 runners: Cantlow, Auvergnat & Josies Orders

4.50: Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Paul Nicholls (3)

2 runners: Act Of Valour & Grand Sancy

5.30: Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (8)

5 runners: Blackbow, Tornado Flyer, Colreevy, Carefully Selected & Relegate

 

STAT ATTACK DURING CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEEK (5 YEAR STUDY UNLESS STATED) – THURSDAY

CHELTENHAM:

33 races – 9 winning favourites – 17/33 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £245.64

Highest dividend: £496.80 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £58.10 (2017)

Every winning trainer on the Thursday during the study period:

8 winners—Willie Mullins (7 winning favourites + 10/1) – 11 runners: Invitation Only & Kemboy (1.30), Un De Sceaux (2.50), Penhill, Augusta Kate, Barardys & Lets Dance (3.30) & Laurina, Salsaretta, Cut The Mustard & Pietralunga (4.50)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (25/1, 15/2 & 7/1) – 2 runners: Forza Milan (2.10) & Go Conquer (4.10)

3—David Pipe (12/1, 9/1 & 3/1*) – 3 runners: Taj Badalandabd & Dell’ Arca (2.50) & King’s Socks (4.10)

2—Patrick G Kelly (14/1 & 11/1) – 1 runner: Mall Dini 5.30

2—Colin Tizzard (7/2 & Evens*) – 7 runners: Finian’s Oscar & West Approach (1.30), Cue Card (2.50) & Ultragold, Quite By Chance, Shanahan’s Turn & Viconte Du Noyer (4.10)

1 each for: Venetia Williams (50/1), Stuart Edmunds (40/1), Kim Bailey (33/1), Tony Martin (20/1), Alan King (16/1), C A Murphy (16/1), Nigel Twiston-Davies (16/1), Warren Greatrex (14/1), P Maher (14/1), Noel Meade (14/1), Jim Culloty (12/1), Nicky Henderson (9/1), Charlie Byrnes (17/2), Gordon Elliott (9/2) & Philip Hobbs (9/2)

The stat attack for the other tracks on Thursday will follow later…

 

TRAINERS WITH MOST WINNERS IN THURSDAY’S RACES AT CHELTENHAM:

1.30: JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Willie Mullins (4 wins) – 2 runners: Invitation Only & Kemboy

2.10: Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) – Jonjo O’Neill (4 wins) – 1 runner: Forza Milan

2.50: Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) – Five trainers on the two winner mark – No outstanding record to report

3.30: Sun Bets Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) – Paul Nicholls (4 wins) – 1 runner: Old Guard

4.10: Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) – Nicky Henderson (Pougne Bobbi) & ‘Team Pipe’ (King’s Socks) (4 winners apiece)

4.50: Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) – Willie Mullins has trained the only two winners to date – 4 declred: Laurina, Salsaretta, Cut The Mustard & Pietralunga

5.30: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup A R Handicap Chase – ‘Team Pipe’ (5) – No runners this time around

 

MONEY PILING UP ON BETFAIR AT 7.00 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING – SUGGESTING THAT THESE HORSES MIGHT RUN BETTER AT CHELTENHAM THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THIS SERVICE DOES NOT REPLACE TOMORROW’S MMA SERVICE YOU UNDERSTAND, IT’S JUST THAT YOU MIGHT FIND SOME VALUE BEFORE THINGS HOT UP TOMORROW MORNING:

1.30: Terrefort at 9/2 looks big enough with Betfair/PP/Boyle at the overnight stage.

2.10: Potential support on the exchanges suggests that the current quote of 14/1 about A Great View might be difficult to beat on Thursday.

2.50: The declaration of Douvan (faller on Wednesday) is causing chaos at the time of writing whereby no overnight comment is forthcoming.

3.30: Unowwhatimeanharry is back in the positive queues at 10/1 with Hills/Betbright/Paddy Power which is as much of a surprise to me as it might be to you!

4.10: Kings Odyssey is well over the top at 25/1 with 188 at the time of writing.

4.50: Marias Benefit looks like offering value for money at around the 7/1 mark (Betfair/PP/Boyle) on Wednesday evening.

5.30: If there is a plunge horse in the field, Mall Dini could be the horse whereby taking 11/2 with Hills tonight might be worth taking to small money.

THESE ARE HORSES FOR YOU TO CONSIDER – NOTHING MORE – NOTHING LESS – LET’S SEE WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS – WHY NOT JOIN ME AT 5.00!

 

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FOOTBALL TONIGHT – LIVE ON BT SPORT – 7.45 KO:

BARCELONA V CHELSEA

3/5–Barcelona (Marathon)

7/2–Draw (Betfair/Unibet/Betfred)

11/2–Chelsea (Generally available)

Half time betting: 

23/20–Barcelona (Ladbrokes/Coral)

10/7–Draw (Unibet/888)

51/10–Chelsea (Unibet)

INTERESTING ‘DIFFERENCE OF OPINIONS’ BY BOOKIES IN THE HALF TIME – FULL TIME SECTOR:

Best prices:

7/5–Barcelona/Barcelona (Ladbrokes – as short as 11/10 with Betbright)

20/1–Barcelona/Draw (Skybet – as short as 12/1 with Betway)

66/1–Barcelona/Chelsea (Marathon & Betfred – as short as 40/1 in three places)

Conclusion: Big differences relating to odds – but which way do you play at 90 minutes?

 

18/5–Draw/Barcelona (Marathon – as short as 3/1 with 365 & Betbright)

34/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon – as short as 5/1 with PP & Boyle)

15/1–Draw/Chelsea (Marathon – only 11/1 with several firms)

Conclusion: Marathon do not expect the match to be level at half time!

 

25/1–Chelsea/Barcelona (Skybet – as short as 18/1 with Betfred & BetStars)

20/1–Chelsea/Draw (Skybet – as short as 12/1 with Black Type)

11/1–Chelsea/Chelsea (Skybet & Ladbrokes – as short as 17/2 with Black Type)

Conclusion: Skybet do not expect Chelsea to lead after 45 minutes of play!

 

 

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