May 23

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 23rd May

Tuesday’s school report:

We had 2 MMA WINNERS on Tuesday at 6/1 (returned at 10/3) & 5/1 (5/2) – though it was the five second placed horses which made the day so frustrating; Prices: 20/1 (6/1) – 12/1 (8/1) – 9/1 (9/2) – 6/1 (9/2) – 6/1 (3/1) – so many of the beaten horses were well backed, but ‘if’ remains the biggest word in racing!  Hopefully, plenty of you ‘laid off’ at shorter prices than you took.

Salvage came early doors via my 16/1 WINNER is the new ‘2YO Notes’ feature which promises much to look forward to for the rest of the year….

My Hexham Stat Attack produced two winners at 5/1 & 11/4. 

 

APPROXIMMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:

3.15: WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS – DONE

3.30: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

5.00: MAL’S AYR ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

5.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – TODAY’S INFORMATION IS BASED ON POTENTIAL ‘EXCHANGE PLAY’, WHEREBY STAKES SHOULD BE KEPT LOW.  THE SITE THAT I USE TO OBTAIN THE BEST PRICES BY BOOKMAKERS IS UNDERGOING MAINTENANCE WORK AND WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE IN TIME FOR ANYTHING TO OFFER TODAY

 

i have offered my three World Cup assessment reports (at the foot of the column) to make up for today’s limited service…

 

NO UPDATES TODAY RE THE BRIEF MMA SERVICE – BACK TO NORMAL TOMORROW

 

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – No updates today – PLEASE NOTE THE ‘WARNING’ ABOVE REGARDING TODAY’S WORK IN THIS SECTOR OF THE SERVICE.

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REALISTIC THREE FIGURES SUMS WAITING IN THE POSITIVE QUEUE ON BETFAIR THIS MORNING – THESE HORSES DO NOT CARRY THE CONFIDENCE I USUALLY OFFER TO READERS – THIS IS JUST A GUIDE – NO MORE, NO LESS.

AYR:

3.05: Naples Bay

3.35: Helovaplan

4.05: Tanasoq

5.05: Dose & Remember The Days

YARMOUTH:

4.25: Call Out Loud

SOUTHWELL (NH):

8.05: Simply Lucky

WARWICK:

2.40: Black Sam Bella

KEMPTON (A/W):

6.25: Jawwaal

7.25: Birds Of Prey

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS:

AYR:

8 races – 2 winning favourites – All 8 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

No trainer has saddled more than one winner at Ayr this season but on the second day of the meeting, it’s all well to consider Jim Goldie’s eight outsiders on the card.  Jim has saddled so many big priced winners here at Ayr, particularly on the second of this two day meeting.

 

YARMOUTH:

24 races – 8 winning favourites – 23/24 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainers at Yarmouth this season:

3/4—John Gosden (11/10*, 4/9*, & 1/3*) – 1 runner: Legends Of War (2.20)

2/3—Lydia Pearce (9/1 & 7/2) – 2 entries: General Patton (2.55) & Cameradorie (5.25)

 

SOUTHWELL (N/H):

14 races – 6 winning favourites – All 14 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers at Southwell (N/H) this season:

4/7—Dan Skelton (9/2, 11/4**, 11/4* & 7/4*) – 4 runners: Free Stone Hill (5.35), Work Du Breteau 6.05), Lady Maleficient (7.05) & Simply Lucky (8.05)

 

WARWICK:

15 races – 7 winning favourites – 14/15 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers at Wawick this season:

3/11—Dan Skelton (9/4, 13/8* & 5/4*) – 3 declarations: Black Sam Bella (2.40), Mister Universum (3.45) & Work In Progress (4.15)

2/4—Nicky Henderson (12/1 & 6/1) – 3 runners: Malton Rose (2.40) & Avonmore & Maestro Royal (5.15)

 

KEMPTON (A/W):

Results from last year’s corresponding meeting:

7 races – 6 winning favourites – All 7 winners at a top price of 7/1.

Trainer to note at Kempton in 2018 with a runner tonight:

6/16—John Gosden – 1 runners: Jawwaal (6.25)

 

TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES:

2.00 Ayr:

Mick Channon might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, Two Blondes might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit.

This is not a race in which to get involved however given the price of the selection.  It should be worth waiting for Mick’s March foal to score before going onto better things in races which which will offer a ‘working man’s price’.

There is also the fact that Mark Johnston’s Dame Freya Stark is attracting some support on the exchanges in the dead of night.

2.20 Yarmouth:

This appears to be a really hot little contest with no less than four trainers declaring their undying love for their relevant individuals.  A race to record for sure.

James Tate reveals that Zmhar is probably top of his juvenile list this season.

David Simcock gives the impression that Wiretap has tons of potential, though it’s interesting to note that David’s raider runs in the same colours of the real talking horse in the race, namely Legends Of War from John Gosden’s yard.

If you listen to the words of Roger Varian, San Donarto could (literally) be anything, with only the sky being the limit.

Take your pick or better still perhaps, be content to watch the race a few times and note down the names that you want to follow for the rest of the season because one thing is for sure, these horses WILL win races!

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much as Harry has obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only qualfied in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or are even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have fallen in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

 

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 TAKE 2:

‘Big six’ teams (bowing to pressure I’ve included England!) – head to head records in World Cup matches (alphabetical order):

90 minutes play – Germany includes previous names in the competition.

ARGENTINA:

Brazil: Played 4:  won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 3/5

England: Played 5: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/8

France: Played 2: won both games – G/D: 3/1

Germany: Played 7: won 1 – drew 3 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/11

Spain: Played: 1: won the match – G/D: 2/1

Stats: Played: 19: won 6 – drew 5 – lost 8 – G/D: 18/26

 

BRAZIL:

Argentina: Played 4:  won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/3

England: Played 4:  won 3 & drew 1 – G/D: 6/2

France: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 6/7

Germany: Played 2: won 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 3/7

Spain: Played: 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 10/5

Stats: Played: 19: won 10 – drew 4 – lost 5 – G/D: 30/24

 

ENGLAND:

Argentina: Played 5: won 3 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 8/5

Brazil: Played 4: drew 1 & lost 3 – G/D: 2/6

France: Played 2: won both matches – G/D: 5/1

Germany: Played 5: drew 4 & lost 1 – G/D: 6/9

Spain: Played 2: drew 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 0/1

Stats: Played: 18 – won 5 – drew 7 – lost 6 – G/D: 21/22

 

FRANCE:

Argentina: Played 2: lost both games – G.D: 1/3

Brazil: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/6

England: Played 2 – lost both games – G/D: 1/5

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 1 – won the match – G/D: 3-1

Stats: Played 13: won 4 – drew 2 – lost 7 – G/D: 19/22

 

GERMANY:

Argentina: Played 7: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 1 – G/D: 11/5

Brazil: Played 2: won 1 & lost 1 – G/D: 7/3

England: Played 5: won 1 & drew 4 – G/D: 9/6

France: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 7/7

Spain: Played 4: won 2 – drew 1 – lost 1 – G/D: 5/4

Stats: Played 22: won 9 – drew 9 – lost 4 – G/D: 39/25

 

SPAIN:

Argentina: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/2

Brazil: Played 5: – won 1 – drew 1 – lost 3 – G/D: 5/10

England: Played 2: won 1 & drew 1 – G/D: 1-0

France: Played 1: lost the match – G/D: 1/3

Germany: Played 4: won 1 – drew 1 – lost 2 – G/D: 4/5

Stats: Played 13: won 3 – drew 3 – lost 7 – G/D: 12/20

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TAKE 3:

There is no more certain scenario when assessing odds at the World Cup finals that in one sector of the games, the prices on offer are going to shift dramatically – in all probability.

The last set of games in the Group stage offer us a chance to use our intellect in assessing how the previous two games for each team will have developed.

You will find the best prices (at the time of writing) for all 16 games played at the final stage of the Group matches – whilst offering odds for the ‘big match’ of the group in each case, if there is one on offer.

 

GROUP ‘A’ – Monday June 25th – 3.00 Kick off – matches played at the same time:

8/11—Egypt (Skybet/Betfair)

11/4—Draw (Betfair)

5/1—Saudi Arabia (Marathon)

 

17/10—Uruguay (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

2/1—Russia (Generally available)

This is the potential crunch match of the group

 

GROUP ‘B’ – Monday June 25th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/11—Portugal (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Iran (Unibet)

4/11—Spain (Generally available)

4/1—Draw (Skybet)

19/2—Morocco (Sportingbet)

 

The big game of Group B – Friday 15th – 7.00 Kick off:

10/11—Spain (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (Generally available)

37/10—Portugal (Bet Stars)

 

GROUP ‘C’ – Tuesday 26th June – 3.00 Kick off:

6/5—Peru (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

13/5—Australia (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

3/5—France (Marathon)

29/10—Draw (Betfair)

11/2—Denmark (Betfair)

This is the most important match in the group

 

GROUP ‘D’ – Tuesday 26th June – 7.00 Kick off:

Evens—Croatia (Marathon)

13/5—Draw (Betfair)

4/1—Iceland (Betfair/Bet Stars)

 

8/13—Argentina (Betfair)

10/3—Draw (Hills)

7/1—Nigeria (365 – as short as 9/2 elsewhere)

 

The big game of Group D – Thursday 21st – 7.00 Kick off:

19/20—Argentina (Betfair)

13/5—Draw (888)

4/1—Croatia (Bet Stars – odds look a tad too big)

 

GROUP ‘E’ – Wednesday June 27th – 7.00 Kick off:

4/9—Brazil (Hills)

4/1—Draw (Skybet/365)

17/2—Serbia (Bet Stars)

 

11/12—Switzerland (Betfair/188)

53/20—Draw (Marathon)

19/5—Costa Rica (Unibet – odds look big enough)

 

GROUP ‘F’ – Wednesday June 27th – 3.00 Kick off:

2/7—Germany (Skybet/Bet Stars/BetBright)

5/1—Draw (Betfair)

12/1—South Korea (Betfair/Sportingbet)

 

13/8—Mexico (Betfair)

11/5—Draw (Unibet/Betfair)

11/5—Sweden (Unibet)

This is arguably the big match in the group

 

GROUP ‘G’ – Thursday June 28th – 7.00 Kick off:

8/5—Belgium (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (Marathon)

21/10—England (Betfair)

This is the crunch match in the group

 

7/5—Tunisia (Betfair)

21/10—Draw (Generally available)

12/5—Panama (Skybet)

 

GROUP ‘H’ – Thursday June 28th – 3.00 Kick off:

19/20—Poland (Hills)

127/50—Draw (Marathon)

18/5—Japan (Betfair)

 

Evens—Colombia (Generally available)

12/5—Draw (365)

7/2—Senegal (Marathon)

 

The big game of Group H – Sunday 4th – 7.00 Kick off:

13/8—Colombia (Betfair)

23/10—Draw (188)

21/10—Poland (Marathon)

 

Much depends on the accuracy of how you predict the results of the earlier games in the groups but if can get those games right – you should be able to make money on these four days of the tournament, even if the later stages are not so beneficial!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.