Tuesday’s school report:
There is no hiding from the fact that yesterday was one of those disappointing afternoon’s which hit all of us every now and then.
I was content to let the two placed horses run well for us in the 1.55 at Southwell, having taken much bigger prices than when laid off, though that still did not stop my feeling frustrated behind a 25/1 winner.
Upwards and onward today and as you can see by the amount of work offered for Cheltenham on Saturday, nothing deters yours truly in his quest for finding decent priced winners again, however much effort it takes.
Keep the belief – it’s a long haul!
DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – NOW UPDATED + NINE ADDITIONS
4.05: Notebook – 9/2 (Betfair/PP) – NOW AVERAGE PRICE OF 7/2
Additional Catterick entries at 8.00:
2.30: Beeno – 8/1 (Betfair)
3.00: JustforJames – 11/1 (Stan James)
None as yet
Additional Exeter entries at 8.00:
2.50: Norse Light – 9/2 (Generally available)
3.20: Dark Aster – 50/1 (Betfair) – to minimum stakes
1.00: North Bay Sunrise – 14/1 (Skybet/Hills/Betfair/PP) – to small stakes – NOW 12/1
2.40: Deebaj – 8/1 (PP) – NOW 6/1
Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:
1.30: New Orleans – 7/1 (Betfair)
2.05: Little Laughter – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)
6.15: Far Dawn – 13/2 (PP) – NOW 9/2
6.45: Mutineer – 33/1 (Betfred/Tote) – NOW 22/1
7.45: Deeleys Double (5/1 (PP) – NOW 4/1
Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:
4.40: Rapid Rise – 13/2 (Betfair/Sportingbet)
5.15: Endlessly – 7/2 (Skybet)
5.45: Teaser – 8/1 (Sportingbet)
IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):
8/31—Tom Lacey (+28) – 2 at Exeter: Coningsby (3.20) & Thomas Patrick (3.55)
6/15—David Elsworth (+23) – 4 runners – 3 at Lingfield: Polar Light (1.00), Ay Ay (3.10) & Galloway Hills (3.45) + Ripp Orf (7.15 Kempton)
5/11—Donald McCain (+7) – 2 at Catterick (Pinch Of Ginger (1.55) & Derrynane (4.05)
5/15—Phil McEntee (+4) – 2 at Kempton: Justice Rock (4.40) & Gentlemen (7.15)
4/7—Anthony Honeyball (+8) – 1 at Exeter: Solstice Twilight (2.15)
4/10—Nick Williams (+28) – 1 chance: Daisy De Sivola (1.40 Exeter)
4/16—David Simock – 3 at Lingfield: Falcon’s Vision (1.00), Power And Peace (1.30) & Calling Out (3.10)
3/6—Ed Walker (+3) – 1 at Kempton: Boychick (7.45)
3/8—Malcolm Jefferson (+12) – 1 at Catterick: Kelka (3.35)
3/9—Brian Ellison (+1) – 3 at Catterick: Always Resolute & Apterix (2.30) & Totyalize (3.35)
3/9—William Haggas – 1 at Lingfield: Mosseyb (3.45)
2/3—Jenny Candlish (+11) – 1 at Catterick: Spirit Of Hale (1.55)
2/3—Chris Gordon (+10) – 1 at Lingfield: Ladofash (2.40)
23 runners listed in race order via in the form trainers:
1.00: Falcon’s Vision & Polar Light
1.30: Power And Peace
1.40: Daisy De Sivola
1.55: Spirit Of Hale & Pinch Of Ginger
2.15: Solstice Twilight
2.30: Always Resolute & Apterix
3.10: Calling Out & Ay Ay
3.35: Totalize & Kelka
3.45: Mosseyb & Galloway Hills
3.55: Thomas Patrick
4.40: Justice Rock
7.15: Ripp Orf & Gentlemen
WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):
32 races – 15 winning favourites – 30/32 winners scored at a top price of 12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £221.24
Highest dividend: £944.80 (2012) – Lowest dividend: £8.00 (2014)
Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
4 winners—Donald McCain (4/1, 5/2*, 11/10* & 4/9* – includes a 24/1 treble in 2014) – 2 runners today: Pinch Of Ginger (1.55) & Derrynane (4.05)
AHEAD OF THE GAME – CHELTENHAM – SATURDAY – 10 YEAR STUDY PERIOD
JUVENILE HURDLE – SCHEDULED FOR 12.40
Nicky Henderson has posted two very strong entries in Apple’s Shakira and We Have A Dream, given that the trainer has saddled three of the last four winners of this event when represented.
Seven of the last ten winners have contested the Triumph Hurdle, two of which won at 5/2* & 2/1*. Three of the other five (all favourites at the Festival) reached the frame.
Two winners of this race did not appear at Cheltenham in the same year, whilst the other finished nearer last than first when sent off as a 40/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’.
Eight winners during the study period scored at a top price of 5/2, stats which include five successful market leaders and one joint favourite. To balance the books in no uncertain terms, the other winners scored at 100/1 and 25/1.
NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE – SCHEDULED FOR 1.15
Nine of the ten winners have contested various races at the Festival with three claiming Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
Eight renewals have slipped by since the last (3/1) favourite obliged. Three of the last five gold medallists scored at 25/1, 14/1 & 12/1. The last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-11. Seven-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer, having secured five of the last eight contests.
Colin Tizzard potentially saddles the top two horses in the handicap (West Approach & Sizing Tennessee) in an attempt to win this event for the third time in nine years. No other trainer has saddled more than one winner of the race during the study period.
GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE – SCHEDULED FOR 1.50
Given the competitive nature of this event, fancied horses have a decent record, given that nine winners during the study period were sent off at a top price of 9/1, stats which include two winning (9/2 & 4/1) favourites.
Eight-year-olds lead the way with four victories coming into this year’s contest on a hat trick. All manner of weights have been carried whereby no recent bias can be detected.
Eight of the last ten winners have gone on to run at the festival in various events, with The Giant Bolster very much the star turn having finished second in the 2012 running of the Gold Cup at odds of 50/1.
Collectively however, just two of the eight relevant runners finished in the frame (no winners). The other placed horse snared the silver medal in the ‘Jewson’ as the 7/2 favourite, the only winner to have contested that particular event.
COTSWOLD CHASE – SCHEDULED FOR 2.25
No favourite has won this race during the last decade during which time, six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame. That said, the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, though the previous gold medallists were returned at 16/1, 16/1 and 11/1
10-year-olds lead the nine-year-old 5-4 during the study period, whilst Oliver Sherwood and Paul Nicholls are the only trainers to have saddled two winner during the last ten years. Paul has saddled a total of four winners, a sequence which was started by See More Business back in 1999.
Three of the last ten winners missed the Cheltenham Festival (Gold Cup) in the same year.
Only one of the other seven runners reached the frame in the subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup and that was The Giant Bolster which finished third at 14/1 in 2014. Others finished down the field in the ‘Blue Riband’ at 7/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 33/1. As a ‘trial’, the ‘Cotswold’ is not all it is cracked up to be.
GRADE 2 NOVICE HURDLE – SCHEDULED FOR 3.00
Six-year-olds have won eight of the last nine renewals, whilst favourites have won four contests of late, eight gold medallists having scored at a top price of 13/2.
Horses going on to contest the ‘Albert Bartlett’ have the best record, given that three of the relevant four contenders finished in the frame, stats which include two winners at 15/8* & 13/8*. The other contender was well placed to claim a Placepot position when falling at the last flight.
Five winners have contested the ‘Neptune’ at the festival (includes the previously named Ballymore Novices), though the best they have managed recently was by snaring silver and bronze medals at 11/10* and 4/1* respectively.
CLEEVE HURDLE – SCHEDULED FOR 3.35:
Nine of the ten winners have gone on to contest the ‘Stayers’ event, resulting in four victories (6/1, 11/8*, Evens* & 5/6*) and three placed efforts.
One gold medallist (Knockara Beau) contested the Gold Cup (finished 7th) in the same year as a 66/1 chance in 2014, the same price as when winning this event four years ago.
The other nine winners of this Grade 2 event all scored at a top price of 7/2, stats which include six successful market leaders.
To suggest that there would be emotional scenes at Cheltenham on Saturday if Beer Goggles turned up and won is the understatement of the year.
HANDICAP HURDLE – SCHEDULED FOR 4.10
Bookmakers have endured something of a rough ride in the closing race of late, given that all ten winners during the study period have been returned in single figures, stats which include three favourites of one description or another.
All 10 winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-12, though there is no obvious vintage bias.
Two winners have been lured away from Cheltenham the same year having unsuccessfully contested the Imperial Cup at Sandown at the weekend before the festival.
The only horse to have contested the County Hurdle (Paul Nicholls trained Lac Fontana) won the race four years ago at odds of 11/1. The other four winners ran in different races at the festival without troubling the judge.
SATURDAY STAT ATTACK – CHELTENHAM – 10 YEAR STUDY
73 races – 24 winning favourites – 62/73 winners scored at a top price of 12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £175.46
Highest dividend: £727.90 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £8.40 (2009)
Trainers with at least three during the study period – number of entries for Saturday:
10 winners—Alan King (16/1, 12/1, 13/2, 13/2, 5/1, 9/2, 2/1*, 7/4**, 6/5* & 10/11*). Alan achieved a 122/1 treble in 2016 when he secured an 11,136/1 five-timer on the day around the country. Alan also claimed a 267/1 treble on the Cheltenham card in 2012 – Alan has posted nine entries on Saturday
8—Paul Nicholls (16/1, 11/2, 5/1, 4/1***, 7/2, 3/1, 3/1*, 1/4*) – 3 entries
6—Nicky Henderson (25/1, 7/2, 5/2, 7/4*, 4/9* & 1/5*) – 11 entries
4—Philip Hobbs (9/1, 7/1, 9/2* & 1/5*) – 2 entries
4—Colin Tizzard (12/1, 11/1, 5/1 & 4/5*) – 9 entries
4—Nigel Twiston Davies (100/1, 16/1, 12/1 & 11/4*) – 7 entries
4—Nick Williams (11/2, 2/1, 15/8* & 8/15*) – 5 entries
3—David Bridgwater (6/1, 5/1 & 7/2) – No entries
3—Venetia Williams (8/1, 4/1* & 3/1*) – 3 entries
Be lucky of course but as ever – Be aware!