May 02

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 2nd

Tuesday’s school report:

No matter which way I paint it, the colours could have mixed a little better for us yesterday with four MMA winners to report at 15/2 (returned at 4/1) – 11/4 (9/4) – 7/4 (11/10) – 13/8 (11/10).

Frustratingly, two second places horses at 9/1 (3/1) and 13/2 (10/3) could have made things so much better.

Upwards and onward on something of a strange day today with many of our leading trainers swerving Ascot, seemingly preferring Wolverhampton as the venue to attack today, a manoeuvre which will upset many readers who (seemingly) oppose A/W sport.

Best of luck wherever you’re playing whilst offering an ‘excuse’ for including Sunday’s World Cup work again, mainly because many new subscribers will not have seen the work before.

I will run that again for a few days given that the month of May has attracted new readers to our throng.  Welcome!

*POINT OF ORDER – Plenty of rain overnight here in Bristol (supposedly lasting until towards lunchtime) which will passing through Ascot as the day moves on, or so we are assured from those ‘in the know’!

The overnight quote of the going at Bath was good to soft (good in places) – believe me, there will be no sign of good in the description towards flag fall (I live ten minutes from the racecourse) – heavy might even feature in the wording at some stage during the afternoon…..

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS (ASCOT – BRIGHTON – PONTEFRACT) – DONE

4.45: WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE ONE – DONE

5.15: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.15: MAL’S ASCOT ANALYSIS (via the free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE

8.20: IN FORM TRAINERS – DONE

8.40: FOOTBALL SERVICE – DONE

11.00: 2000 GUINEAS UPDATE – DONE

11.15: LEADING TRAINERS AT TODAY’S TURF VENUES THIS SEASON – DONE

 

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.15 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

ASCOT:

4.20: Country Dream – 5/1 (Betfair/Boyle)

Additional Ascot entries at 8.00:

3.45: Eirene – 13/2 (Betfred/Tote)

4.55: Pastime – 18/1 (Unibet/Betfred/Tote)

 

BRIGHTON:

4.25: Princess Keira – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.35: Shrewd Approach – 7/2 (Betfair/PP)

6.10: Robert The Painter – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

6.40: All About Pace – 14/1 (365/Skybet/Batfair/PP)

7.10: Rainbow Jazz – 14/1 (Skybet)

8.10: Mercers – 9/1 (365)

Additional Brighton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

PONTEFRACT:

2.10: Azor Ahai – 7/2 (365/BetVictor)

4.30: Lexington Times – 12/1 (Betfair/PP/Coral/Boyle)

5.05: Leeshaan – 5/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

Additional Pontefract entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

BATH:

6.20: Poets Princess – 10/3 (Betfair/PP/BetBright)

7.20: Bonjour Steve – 13/2 (BetBright)

7.50: Handytalk – 5/1 (PP/Coral/Boyle)

8.20: Dillinger – 10/1 (365/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Bath at 8.00:

NONE

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

1.50: Napping – 9/2 (365)

2.25: Queen Of Connaught – 7/2 (365)

3.00: Costa Percy  – 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.45: Two to consider: Desert Diamond – 11/2 (PP) & Voluminous – 20/1 (365)

5.55: Filament Of Gold – 11/1 (Betfair/PP/Coral)

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 8.00:

NONE

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

26/62—John Gosden (+25) – 5 at Wolverhampton: Valcartier (4.10), Nawassi & Dolcissimo (4.45) & Mythical Queen & Derrymore (5.20)

25/53—Charlie Appleby (36) – 2 at Ascot: Dathanna (2.35) & Sound Of Silence (3.45)

15/44—William Haggas – 2 chances: Allieyf (2.45 Pontefract) & Victory Bond (4.20 Ascot)

14/55—Micky Hammond (+42) – 1 at Pontefract: Frankster (3.55)

10/34—Richard Hannon (+19) – 7 runners: Spell (2.00 Ascot), Red Starlight (2.35 Ascot), Straight Ash & Sopranos Rock (3.35 Wolverhampton), Swiss Chime (5.00 Brighton) & Jaayiz & Ower Magic (5.45 Bath)

9/29—Tony Carroll (+37) – 6 today: Jeremys Jet (5.55 Wolverhampton), Kath’s Boy (6.10 Brighton), Nouvelle Ere (6.40 Brighton), De Vegas Kid (7.20 Bath), Beau Mistral (8.10 Brighton) & Frank Cool (8.20 Bath)

6/19—Richard Fahey (22) – 3 at Pontefract: Zip (2.10), Geoff Potts (4.30) & The Right Choice (5.05)

5/14—Mick Channon (+11) – 4 chances: Azor Ahai (2.10 Pontefract), Big Boots (5.45 Bath), Ettie Hart (6.10 Brighton) & Duba Plains (6.50 Bath)

3/8—Sir Michael Stoute (+14) – 4 today – 3 at Wolverhampton: Phantasmic (2.25), Desert Diamond (4.45) & Homeopatic (5.20) + 1 at Ascot: Eqditaar (3.45)

Last two runners have won—Philip Hide (+8) – 1 at Brighton: Buzz Lightyere (7.40)

Last two have won–Ed Walker (+4) – 2 at Ascot: Agotera (2.35) & Sayem (4.55)

2/3—Tim Easterby (+9) – 4 at Pontefract: Cemetry (2.10), Ghayyar & Give It Some Teddy (3.55) & Suitcase ‘N’ Taxi – 5.40)

2/3—Peter Hiatt (+26) – 2 at Wolverhampton: Beaming (1.50) & Raashdy (3.00)

2/3—Charlie Hills (+5) – 1 at Wolverhampton: Revalue (5.20)

2/3—Mick Quinn (+17) – 1 at Brighton: Princess Keira (4.25)

2/4—Michael Bell – 2 at Wolverhampton: Queen Of Connaught (2.25) & Geetanjali (3.35)

2/4—Eve Johson Houghton (+5) – 3 today – 2 at Brighton: Tin Hat (5.00) & Downtown Mombasa (5.35) + 1 at Ascot: Accidental Agent (4.20)

50 runners listed in race order:

1.50: Beaming

2.00: Spell

2.10: Azor, Ahai, Zip & Cemetry Wall

2.25: Phantasmic & Queen Of Connaught

2.35: Dathanna, Agotera & Red Starlight

2.45: Allieyf

3.00: Raashdy

3.35: Straight Ash, Geetanjali & Sopranos Rock

3.45: Sound And Silence & Eqtidaar

3.55: Frankster, Ghayyar & Give It Some Teddy

4.10: Vazcarier

4.20: Victory Bond & Accidental Agent

4.25: Princess Keira

4.30: Geoff Potts

4.45: Desert Diamond, Nawaasi & Dolcissimo

4.55: Sayem

5.00: Swiss Chime & Tin Hat

5.05: The Right Choice

5.20: Homeopathic, Mystical Queen, Revalue & Derrymore

5.35: Downtown Mombasa

5.40: Suitcase ‘N’ Taxi

5.45: Jaayiz, Big Boots & Ower Magic

5.55: Jeremys Jet

6.10: Kath’s Boy & Ettie Hart

6.40: Nouvelle Ere

6.50: Duba Plains

7.20: De Vagas Kid

7.40: Buzz Lightyere

8.10: Beau Mistral

8.20: Frank Cool

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACKS (FIVE YEAR STUDY UNLESS STATED):

ASCOT:

30 races – 5 winning favourites – 2306/ winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £96.20

Highest dividend: £143.80 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £58.90 (2013)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—‘Team Hannon’ – two each for ‘senior & junior’ (7/1, 9/2, 7/2, 5/2) – 2 runners: Spell (2.00) & Red Starlight (2.35)

The two trainers with three winners apiece are not represented at Ascot on Wednesday, namely John Gosden & Luca Cumani.

 

BRIGHTON (FOUR YEAR STUDY):

28 races – 9 winning favourites – All 28 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Average Placepot dividend: £147.90

Highest dividend: £283.00 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £59.70 (2014)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

4 winners—John Bridger (5/1, 7/2, 10/3 & 7/4*) – 3 declared: Live Dangerously (6.10), Shifting Star (7.40) & Pharoh Jake (8.10)

 

PONTEFRACT (SIX YEAR STUDY):

42 races – 13 winning favourites – 38/42 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £146.57

Highest dividend: £324.40 (2014) – Lowest dividend: £17.90 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Richard Fahey 17/2, 6/1 & 11.10*) – 3 runners: Zip (2.10), Geoff Potts (4.30) & The Right Choice (5.05)

3 winners—Mark Johnston (4/1, 11/4 & 10/11*) – 2 entries: Port Of Leith (2.10) & Making Miracles (2.45)

 

LEADING TRAINERS AT TODAY’S TURF VENUES THIS SEASON:

BATH:

6/7–Mick Channon (8/1, 3/1, 11/4, 7/4*, 5/4** & Evens*) – 2 runners: Big Boots (5.45) & Duba Plains (6.50)

BRIGHTON:

2/6–Tony Carroll (10/3 & 3/1) – 3 runners: Kath’s Boy (6.10), Nouvelle Ere (6.40) & Beau Mistral (8.10)

2/6–Philip Hide (5/1 & 7/2**) – 1 runner today: Buzz Lightyere (7.40)

PONTEFRACT:

No leaders have emerged via just eight races at the track this season – 8 different winning trainers this far

ASCOT – NONE – THIS IS THE FIRST MEETING OF THE SEASON

 

2000 GUINEAS – BEST PRICES – ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ – TUESDAY MORNING –

NOW UPDATED – WEDNESDAY:

11/4—Gustav Klint (Betfair) – NOW 5/2 (188/PP) – AS SHORT AS 7/4

11/2—Saxon Warrior (Bet Stars/Sportingbet) – NOW 6/1 (LADBROKES) – AS SHORT AS 4/1

11/2—Masar (Betfred/Tote) – 5/1 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE) – AS SHORT AS 9/2

6/1—Elarqam (Genrally available) – NOW 11/2 (GENERALLY AVAILABLE) – AS SHORT AS 4/1

New in the list–12/1–Expert Eye (Sportingbet) – AS SHORT AS 8/1

12/1—Without Parole (Generally available) – NOW A NON RUNNER

16/1—Roaring Lion (Skybet) – REMAINS AT 16/1 – AS SHORT AS 14/1

20/1—US Navy Flag (Betfair/PP/Coral/888) – REMAINS 20/1 (BETFAIR/PP/CORAL) – AS SHORT AS 14/1

New in the list–20/1–James Garfield (Generally available) – AS SHORT AS 14/1

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – ROMA V LIVERPOOL – LIVE ON BT SPORT – 7.45 KICK OFF:

13/8–Roma (Betfair/BetVictor)

31/10–Draw (365)

13/8–Liverpool (Betway)

Half time betting: 

2/1–Roma (Ladbrokes/Coral/Black Type)

17/10–Draw (Betfair)

2/1–Liverpool (Generally available)

Half time/Full Time odds:

16/5–Roma/Roma (Generally available)

14/1–Roma/Draw (Skybet/188/BetVictor)

25/1–Roma–Liverpool (Skybet/Black Type/188)

13/2–Draw/Roma (Generally available)

39/5–Draw/Draw (Marathon)

13/2–Draw/Liverpool (Marathon)

25/1–Liverpool/Roma (Skybet/Black Type/188)

14/1–Liverpool/Draw (Skybet/188)

16/5–Liverpool/Liverpool (Ladbrokes/Coral)

 

TO QUALIFY FOR THE FINAL:

1/12–Liverpool (BetStars)

9/1–Roma (365)

 

TO WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT:

7/10–Real Madrid (Marathon)

7/5–Liverpool (Matathon/Sportingbet)

35/1–Roma (188)

 

WORLD CUP COUNTDOWN – TAKE ONE…..

The bookmakers should be ashamed of their current top price quote of 18/1 (Bet365/188) about England, notwithstanding the shortest odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet Stars.

The general public seem to be more confident this time around because of Harry Kane as much as anything else but only recently, we have witnessed that Harry does not always ‘rise to the top’ when the chips are down and if Harry under-performs, we can surely kiss any chance we had goodbye, probably in the early rounds of the tournament.

Harry has enjoyed a marvellous season but just recently in Tottenham’s two biggest games (Manchester United in the semi-final of the FA Cup) and Roma in the Champions league (second Wembley leg), Harry wasn’t on his ‘A game’ on either occasion.

Is there anything knew about that statement?  Well no unfortunately, because as much has Harry as obviously improved these last few years, he needs to take meteoric steps judged on his weak performances in the European Tournament two years ago.

That’s a major potential problem at the front end of the ‘spine’ and at the back, we have real problems in the goalkeeping sector because if we believe the press, the manager does not know who he is going to be playing as the number one choice, just seven weeks short of the competition.

As far as previous England teams are concerned, let’s take a look at the last eight World Cup tournaments, even though England only played in seven of them!

The group stage is almost as important as the matches later in the competition in terms of building confidence.  I’m going to be brutally harsh by comparing our record against those of Brazil and Germany.  If that seems a tough route to take, we have to be honest if we are to win only our second World Cup tournament.  Those willing to take (or even considering the investment) will need to know just how short we have been in recent competitions.

Brazil:

Played 24 games – won 20 – drew 3 – lost 1 (83% win rate – 96% win/draw)

Germany:

Played 24 games – won 16 – drew 6 – lost 2 (67% win rate – 92% win/draw)

England:

Played 21 games – won 8 – drew 9 – lost 4 (38% win rate – 81% win/draw)

 

We hear week on week that a ‘winning mentality’ is the essence of a successful team, so why have so many England manager been clueless in terms of building their teams into a winning machine?

Not convinced?  Let’s have a look at the goal differences during the period.

Brazil: 51-13 (+38)

Germany: 55 -18 (+37)

England: 21-12 (+9)

Do you recognise the weakness now?

 

If we go back from the opening competition in 1930 – the ratios are no better.

Brazil: Win ratio: 70% (G/D: +91)

Germany: Win ratio: 63% (G/D +74)

England: Win ratio: 41% (G/D +21)

 

If you care to look at the other end of the competition where potential penalty shoot-outs can determine winners over losers – look at the records of the three teams?

Brazil: 3/4

Germany: 4/4 (Best record of any country)

England: 0/3 (Worst record of any country)

This is not been written as a ‘hatchet job’ against our team.  It is offered to stop people losing money, which is almost as important as the main target of directing clients to making a profit via my service.

2 comments

  1. hi mal/ morning
    ive been trying to follow you mma and inform trainers choices too
    1) which is the best to follow MMA ?
    2) in form trainers choice ?
    3) what is good form ? or is form 1/2/3/4….?

    its hard to get a few together unless you back singles…. also the choices that you pick through analysis do you go with form ..ie..1/2/3/4…or did you go with the trainer form ..meaning hes in good form
    await your reply
    thanks / russ

  2. Hi Russ – My job regarding the MMA horses is simply to tell you (as early as possible) where the money is going to go. Anyone can look at the boards at 10.00 as they do via media coverage and tell you the money has gone – but it is where it is going to go which is important; hence my service. The advice is to keep ‘Oddschecker’ open and see how much the prices I have highlighted reduce – and follow your own gut feeling from there. I have been writing a daily analysis for nearly twenty years now and all I do is wipe the page clean every day and start again, so to speak. I try never to ‘chase losses’ and see every new race as exactly that. Form plays a small part but targeting trainers and where they place their horses always makes more appeal. As for the trainers in form service, I list all trainers who have been showing at least a 30% strike rate and/or those with good level stake profit at the time. Unfortunately (as is the case today), some races will attract many in form trainers but I feel duty bound too add add them into the list, leaving the decision to readers! Very best of luck today – and beyond whilst offering thanks once again, for following my service. Mal

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